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Five Twins make Baseball America's Top 100

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#21 Han Joelo

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 03:45 PM

I think the 4 guy cluster almost represents 8 guys or so, all of whom who could shoot up the list.  While not as sexy as having a couple top 50 guys, might be a better deal.  Top to bottom, the Twins top 10-12 is the best I've ever seen.

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#22 clutterheart

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 04:07 PM

 

I think the 4 guy cluster almost represents 8 guys or so, all of whom who could shoot up the list.  While not as sexy as having a couple top 50 guys, might be a better deal.  Top to bottom, the Twins top 10-12 is the best I've ever seen.

 

I like a lot of the current prospects too, but 2015 was pretty special.  

 

1. Byron Buxton, of 
2. Miguel Sano, 3b 
3. Jose Berrios, rhp
4. Kohl Stewart, rhp
5. Alex Meyer, rhp -

6. Nick Gordon, ss
7. Nick Burdi, rhp 
8. Jorge Polanco, 

9. Trevor May, rhp 
10. Eddie Rosario, of/2b 

 

7 big leaguers on this list, 5 guys in the top 62 and Kepler couldn't even make it

 

Edited by clutterheart, 22 January 2018 - 04:10 PM.

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#23 DocBauer

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 04:10 PM

Barring trades or mass graduation to the ML level this year, I think you'll see 3 or 4 more Twins make this list next season. Too many guys like Graterol that are so talented but still young enough to not be counted this year.

 

Maybe it's just me, but I feel like Gonsalves is a little low.

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#24 gunnarthor

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 04:11 PM

 

I like a lot of the current prospects too, but 2015 was pretty special.  

 

1. Byron Buxton, of 
2. Miguel Sano, 3b 
3. Jose Berrios, rhp
4. Kohl Stewart, rhp
5. Alex Meyer, rhp -

6. Nick Gordon, ss
7. Nick Burdi, rhp 
8. Jorge Polanco, 

9. Trevor May, rhp 
10. Eddie Rosario, of/2b 

 

7 big leaguers on this list and Kepler couldn't even make the list. 

Yeah, the top half of that list - remember, both Meyer and Stewart had ace labels - was incredible. Burdi is out but the rest are still in the org is some capacity. Our current group certainly doesn't have anything like that upside but we do have solid depth. IIRC, 11 different players in 2014 and 2015 made someones top 100 list.

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#25 birdwatcher

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 05:05 PM

 

I like a lot of the current prospects too, but 2015 was pretty special.  

 

1. Byron Buxton, of 
2. Miguel Sano, 3b 
3. Jose Berrios, rhp
4. Kohl Stewart, rhp
5. Alex Meyer, rhp -

6. Nick Gordon, ss
7. Nick Burdi, rhp 
8. Jorge Polanco, 

9. Trevor May, rhp 
10. Eddie Rosario, of/2b 

 

7 big leaguers on this list, 5 guys in the top 62 and Kepler couldn't even make it

 

 

Yeah, this was a pretty impressive list. IIRC, Polanco, May, and Rosario were just off the lists, similar to where Graterol, Romero, and Kiriloff are for these guys. Kepler made someone's Top 150, I remember, at #131, and I'd guess guys like Jay, Enlow, and maybe Diaz would be in this category at this stage of their development.. 


#26 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 05:10 PM

Out of curiosity, did any of the national guys have Polanco sticking at short?

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#27 Han Joelo

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 05:18 PM

Thanks for bringing up this list, clutterheart.  Just for fun, I made some imperfect analogies.  With the benefit of hindsight/rose-tinted glasses, this year's still looks pretty good to me.  But the comparison is flawed for sure, in that this years bunch is on average a step or two behind where the 2015 group was.  Or more...but you have to like the upside.

I like a lot of the current prospects too, but 2015 was pretty special.  

 

1. Byron Buxton, of -Royce Lewis
2. Miguel Sano, 3b -Brent Rooker

3. Jose Berrios, rhp-Fernando Romero
4. Kohl Stewart, rhp Blayne Enlow
5. Alex Meyer, rhp - Stephen Gonsalves

6. Nick Gordon, ss -Nick Gordon
7. Nick Burdi, rhp -Brusdar Graterol
8. Jorge Polanco, -Wander Javier

9. Trevor May, rhp Tyler Jay
10. Eddie Rosario, of/2b Alex Kirilloff

11. Max Kepler-Akil Badoo

 

7 big leaguers on this list, 5 guys in the top 62 and Kepler couldn't even make it

 

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#28 Shane Wahl

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 05:41 PM

 

That would make Rooker our #2 prospect then right?!

I have him at no. 4 on mine.


#29 gunnarthor

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 05:48 PM

 

Out of curiosity, did any of the national guys have Polanco sticking at short?

I believe Sickels and Mayo both thought he could stick with work. Klaw liked his bat enough even if he switched.


#30 TNTwinsFan

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 06:36 PM

Anyone think it possible that Rooker's bat ends up being bigger and better than Sano's?? Did I just commit blasphemy?

#31 jkcarew

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 06:44 PM

***Mike T (Hudson): Nick Gordon dropped big from 2017 to 2018, but he improved on every category except Strike Outs. Whats the reason for the drop?***

 

This is pretty misleading.Gordon's BA and OBP were down and his strike-out rate was up, and up fairly significantly.His HR's went from 3 to 9 which raised his SLG enough that his OPS was up microscopically.You could argue his fielding and base-running numbers improved slightly, but they were not good by any stretch.But most importantly, it's pretty unrealistic to expect all evaluators to ignore just how bad those last three months were.

 

He's a 5th over-all pick out of HS, he's going into his age 22 season.This is the year.Last year's 2nd-half might be a blip, maybe he had an injury we don't know about, maybe he isn't that good, maybe he was preoccupied with the pending release of his album.I think all takes are reasonable, and that's probably why we're seeing such divergent opinions on Gordon.

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#32 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 07:02 PM

I believe Sickels and Mayo both thought he could stick with work. Klaw liked his bat enough even if he switched.

cool, thanks

It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All Star

Game and an old timer's game. - Vin Scully


#33 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 07:15 PM

Just one prospect out of the top ninety is nothing to get real excited about guys.
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#34 markos

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 08:11 PM

 

***Mike T (Hudson): Nick Gordon dropped big from 2017 to 2018, but he improved on every category except Strike Outs. Whats the reason for the drop?***

 

This is pretty misleading.Gordon's BA and OBP were down and his strike-out rate was up, and up fairly significantly.His HR's went from 3 to 9 which raised his SLG enough that his OPS was up microscopically.You could argue his fielding and base-running numbers improved slightly, but they were not good by any stretch.But most importantly, it's pretty unrealistic to expect all evaluators to ignore just how bad those last three months were.

 

He's a 5th over-all pick out of HS, he's going into his age 22 season.This is the year.Last year's 2nd-half might be a blip, maybe he had an injury we don't know about, maybe he isn't that good, maybe he was preoccupied with the pending release of his album.I think all takes are reasonable, and that's probably why we're seeing such divergent opinions on Gordon.

I'm not certain that you are looking at the correct data. 

 

Gordon's OPS:

2016: .721

2017: .749

OBP:

2016: .335

2017: .341

 

I would not characterize a 28-point difference in OPS as microscopic. Over a full season, that is roughly 10 runs (approximately 1 WAR).

 

I do think that it is fair to say that across the board (other than K%, which directly affects BA), Gordon was better in 2017. BB%, BB/K, ISO, OBP, SLG, GB% (way lower), LD%, FB% (both way up), SB%.

 

All that said, I agree that the end of last season was disappointing, and I also agree that he still needs to show a lot next year. But I think that it is very encouraging that for the first time he actually showed some power. Admittedly, it is a small sample, but for years now scouts that liked him have been betting that he would start tapping more power than he had shown in HS and the lower minors. Well, it finally flashed for a while. It might not stick (it didn't really in the second half), but it is undoubtedly better to show a skill, even over a small sample, than to have never shown the skill at all. I still have him as my #2 in the Twins system.


#35 markos

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 08:17 PM

 

Anyone think it possible that Rooker's bat ends up being bigger and better than Sano's?? Did I just commit blasphemy?

While I certainly don't think it is likely, it is certainly possible for two reasons. First, this is baseball, and just about anyone can seemingly wake up as one of the best hitters in baseball. Second, beyond the randomness, Rooker does have a solid track record and an existing toolkit to thrive in the current juiced-ball, no ground balls environment. It certainly isn't crazy to see him tighten up his strike zone judgement in a way that Sano has failed to do so far. 

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#36 gunnarthor

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 09:30 PM

 

Anyone think it possible that Rooker's bat ends up being bigger and better than Sano's?? Did I just commit blasphemy?

No. At 22, Sano finished third in ROY voting and put up a 149 OPS+. At 22, Rooker spent time between rookie ball and high A ball. Rooker could put up a few Cuddyer with the bat type years while Sano will win HR titles.

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#37 spycake

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 09:45 PM

I'm not certain that you are looking at the correct data.

Gordon's OPS:
2016: .721
2017: .749
OBP:
2016: .335
2017: .341

I would not characterize a 28-point difference in OPS as microscopic. Over a full season, that is roughly 10 runs (approximately 1 WAR).


Well, the league OPS was 11 points higher. Ballpark might have added some too? 28 points of OPS is well within the range of those factors, or just normal variation.

I guess I wouldn't call it microscopic, but I wouldn't point to it as evidence of definitive improvement either.
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#38 TNTwinsFan

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 10:50 PM

No. At 22, Sano finished third in ROY voting and put up a 149 OPS+. At 22, Rooker spent time between rookie ball and high A ball. Rooker could put up a few Cuddyer with the bat type years while Sano will win HR titles.


To be fair though, Rooker spent those two stops in the same year he was drafted after spending 4 years in college. I couldn't find the OPS+ stats, but will use wRC+ instead (and it may be a better measuring stick anyway?) Granted, at different ages in the same league, Sano had his best year in the minors by far with a wRC+ of 203 to Rooker's 166. Since that year, however, Sano hasn't topped a 156 wRC+ and it has fallen off quite a bit. Last year he did sport a wRC+ of 124 after reaching a low of 107 in 2016. Look, the sample size is small for Rooker as we've only seen 1/2 a season out of him thus far. Clearly he has some work to do in the areas of plate discipline and pitch selection; they both do. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Rooker may be a slightly lesser version of a Kris Bryant and if Sano continues on his current trend, I don't think its impossible for Rooker to be the more productive player.

So that's my hot take for 2018 I guess: Rooker>Sano....uh...waiter...yes...I'm still waiting for my guest to arrive but I'll go ahead and place an order of crow just in case...I can always just send it back right?
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#39 h2oface

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Posted 23 January 2018 - 06:02 AM

Some posters think a lot more highly of our farm system than all the other prognosticators. Rose colored glasses, perhaps. Time will tell.

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#40 Tomj14

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Posted 23 January 2018 - 07:07 AM

This list kind of makes all of our trade offers for Archer and others funny and sad.

It seems we as Twins fans' think our prospects are way better than other do. Based on this list we aren't getting a top end starter without Lewis in the trade.

Imagine how upset we would be if we traded Berrios in a couple of years for a couple of prospects rated in the 90's and a couple outside the top 100's.

 

 

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