Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Not So Fast: Is Eddie Rosario Already Losing a Step?

eddie rosario
  • Please log in to reply
43 replies to this topic

#1 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Content Editor

  • Administrators
  • 1,183 posts

Posted 16 January 2018 - 05:35 PM

Eddie Rosario had a huge breakout year in 2017, posting career highs in virtually every offensive category, but he also saw his defensive and base running metrics take a dip for the second-straight season. Is it possible we’re already seeing the decline of Rosario’s athleticism, or could there be something else going on?When Rosario came up to the big leagues in 2015, he was raw as a hitter but both his speed and defense stood out. Fast forward two years, and it appears Rosario has turned a complete 180. Here is Rosario’s three-year trend in sprint speed, UZR/150 and BsR. Everything is trending the wrong direction.
Download attachment: RosarioTrend.JPG
In terms of sprint speed, Rosario has gone from the 32nd-fastest player in baseball in 2015 to 150th last season. That’s a drop from comfortably inside the top 10 percent to outside the upper third of all players. He’s lost exactly one foot per second on average over the past two seasons, which can be a huge difference when you’re tracking down fly balls in the outfield.

Below is a look at Rosario’s sprint speed the past three seasons compared to some of his teammates. He went from easily being the second-fastest player in this group to slipping down to fourth.
Download attachment: TwinsGraph.JPG
And here’s a look at Rosario’s numbers in relation to a handful of other players around his same age.
Download attachment: MLBSpeed.JPG
So what do we make of all of this? Well, the pessimistic approach would be to conclude that Rosario’s athleticism is already eroding. But he’s still only 26-years-old, so I find that a little hard to believe.

Is it possible that Rosario has played big parts of the past two seasons with undisclosed minor leg injuries that have sapped him of some of that speed? The only time Rosario has been on the DL was when he fractured his thumb in late 2016, but he’s surely played through a few scratches and strains.

What do you make of Rosario’s defensive and base running declines?

Related:
Minnesota’s Base Running Resurgence
Eddie Rosario And The Battle For Plate Discipline

Click here to view the article
  • glunn, Oldgoat_MN, Sconnie and 1 other like this

#2 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Twins World Champions in 2018

  • Members
  • 9,334 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 16 January 2018 - 06:00 PM

Great stuff

 

A. Got to be mentioned that, on the other hand, Rosario had a career high on every single offensive measurement.

 

B. Three data points is a very small sample size.Would love to see monthly averages instead of seasonal.That will tell you whether he had months that dragged his seasonal performance down.For sure the first half he had more ground balls than fly balls (1.5x), a trend reversed the second half, and I wonder whether that had something to do with it.

 

C. would love to see where the other Twins' OFs (Kepler & Grossman) are in the same principles.

  • Oldgoat_MN, nytwinsfan, HitInAPinch and 1 other like this
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#3 nater79a

nater79a

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 760 posts

Posted 16 January 2018 - 06:03 PM

Me thinks somebody needs to check Eddie's birth certificate.Might be 36 and not 26.

  • hybridbear, caninatl04 and Original Whizzinator like this

#4 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 8,474 posts

Posted 16 January 2018 - 06:22 PM

Counterpoint: Rosario is learning to "play within himself," defining that vague phrase however you want :)
  • howieramone2 likes this

It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All Star

Game and an old timer's game. - Vin Scully


#5 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Content Editor

  • Administrators
  • 1,183 posts

Posted 16 January 2018 - 06:24 PM

 

C. would love to see where the other Twins' OFs (Kepler & Grossman) are in the same principles.

2017 sprint speed
28.2 Kepler
28.1 Grossman
27.7 Rosario

 

2017 UZR/150 (all outfield positions combined)
0.8 Kepler
-0.1 Rosario
-9.3 Grossamn

 

2017 BsR
3.1 Kepler
0.1 Grossman
-0.6 Rosario

  • Thrylos, Oldgoat_MN, big dog and 2 others like this

#6 theBOMisthebomb

theBOMisthebomb

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 587 posts

Posted 16 January 2018 - 06:27 PM

We could get Souhan to write another hatchet job and investigate the eating habits of Rosario by using his insider's access. Or, possibly, these are typical fluctuations and Rosario hasn't really lost a step. The other players his age have also seen fluctuations, this is simply a statistical anomaly and Rosario will probably bounce back.
  • lecroy24fan, Shane Wahl and gagu like this

#7 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 18,928 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks, ND

Posted 16 January 2018 - 07:09 PM

1.His sprint speed is still plenty fast. Aggressiveness is a possible explanation.  

 

2. I'm not a UZR Guy. I don't believe the story it tells is accurate. The Inclusion of UZR makes me not a WAR guy either. 

 

3. He used to be a Kamikaze base runner in his younger days. He might be getting smarter. 

 

 

 

  • Blake, big dog, Taildragger8791 and 5 others like this

A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

 

President of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club 

Founded 4-23-16 

 

Strike Zone Automation Advocate


#8 mikelink45

mikelink45

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 1,668 posts

Posted 16 January 2018 - 07:44 PM

I share a concern with Rosario's defense.I loved his rookie year and wonder what happened to the talents he displayed on that side of the baseball register. 

  • nytwinsfan likes this

#9 Sconnie

Sconnie

    From the "right" side of the St Croix

  • Members
  • 3,568 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:10 PM

He’s also got Byron Buxton for 137 games next to him in 2017, vs 92 and 44. No Oswaldo Arica or Danny Santana either, which has to help.

If he doesn’t “have” to get to everything, he might not push it quite so hard, so he can stay healthier throughout the season.

Man those outfields were bad!

Edited by Sconnie, 16 January 2018 - 08:16 PM.

  • Oldgoat_MN, Platoon, cmoss84 and 2 others like this

#10 Darius

Darius

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,208 posts

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:23 PM

I'm not sure I can buy into these measurements a whole lot.

Sprint speed for example. How is that measured? A high water mark, or a composite of some arbitrary number of measurements? At what point do they measure? Again, the high water mark, or an average of the speed throughout that run, or some arbitrary point in time? Clearly, there's some flaw in something's meauring Grossman's sprint speed as an equivalent to Kepler's.

Also, I'm not sure sprint speed really has much bearing on Rosario's game. Given the nature of left field (playing close to the wall, playing angles/bounces), I just don't see speed as something that separates a good LF from a poor one. What are the league averages? We're seeing baseball trend towards speed and athleticism.

We're also seeing a trends if getting young talented players to the major sports faster (it seems, no data there). Every year, faster more athletic players are coming in at age 20-22, and the slow sluggers (Thome, Fielder, etc) are being phased out. Roasario may have been in the 98th percentile in 1990, and would be in the bottom quarter in 2028. I'm not sure the necessarily mean he isn't detrimentally slow. I just can't say his ranking drop in relation the league is alarmingly without more context/data.

When it comes to his arm, which a lot are taking issue with, I don't think the perception of a "drop off" is being adequately discounted for the luck factor. I'm guessing he had fewer "easy" opportunities (aka, tested frequently one year, and not the next after proving yourself). Accuracy can have luck involved (which side of the base you end up on in relation to the runner). Bounces can involve luck. Maybe based were overslid. Considering that there doesn't appear to be a huge regression in his arm strength, it's not something I can definitively say is a problem with Rosario and not a statistical anomole of some kind (on either end of the spectrum in each respective year).

I know the new thing is forcing data. We've arrived at this place where we think any number is better than nothing, and that's simply not he case. People love to throw stuff against the wall before it's properly vetted. Data can be skewed, and can create bad analysis/decision making. I'd like to see this played out longer.

Long story short, I'm not ready to say this isn't a statistical issue (sample size, skewed by outliers) or a measurement issue (flawed techniques, searching for patterns in an inadequate range of data, apples vs oranges, etc). I'm not ready to say Roasario can't play LF. I think we'll have a better idea as this upcoming season progresses.
  • Sconnie, tarheeltwinsfan, gagu and 1 other like this

#11 old nurse

old nurse

    Member

  • Members
  • 3,332 posts

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:25 PM

UZR is not static for any ballplayer.


#12 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Joe's Shades™

  • Members
  • 2,465 posts

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:10 PM

Let's just give Rosario the opportunity to hit more dingers in more playoff games, no?

 

His defensive drop off is a concern, but I'm sure the Twins see it and will work on it.

 

Maybe Rosario is being a bit lazy with Buxton over there and just needs a wake up call/some inspiration to play better.

  • Danchat, Sconnie and Original Whizzinator like this

#13 Dantes929

Dantes929

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,067 posts

Posted 17 January 2018 - 12:11 AM

Running speed is a skill as well as a talent. More focused stretching andspeed training could probably get him back to 2015 levels. Building muscle or running for distance can affect sprint speed.If speed is his priority he can probably improve. I'd like to see it but it is not as essential to his game as it is for Buxton.If Buxton slows down I get concerned.

  • Original Whizzinator likes this
Don't Sweat the Small Stuff ... and it's all small stuff.

#14 highlander

highlander

    Member

  • Members
  • 154 posts

Posted 17 January 2018 - 12:13 AM

Could it be that Eddie has put some sauce on his ribs. 10-15 lbs. can slow a fella down.

#15 snepp

snepp

    Curve Hanger

  • Twins Mods
  • 6,076 posts
  • LocationSioux Falls

Posted 17 January 2018 - 01:20 AM

 

Clearly, there's some flaw in something's meauring Grossman's sprint speed as an equivalent to Kepler's.

 

Why?

  • Minny505 likes this

Member VP of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club


#16 Twodogs

Twodogs

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 621 posts

Posted 17 January 2018 - 07:44 AM

Why don't they just time them all in the 40, then we will know who is fastest and all?? Seems like these metrics for speed are very dependant on a lot of variables.. seems like speed would be speed if you just timed them all??

You cannot succeed without hate for your enemy


#17 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Content Editor

  • Administrators
  • 1,183 posts

Posted 17 January 2018 - 08:15 AM

 

I'm not sure I can buy into these measurements a whole lot.

Sprint speed for example. How is that measured? 

Sprint speed is measuring speed in terms of feet per second in a player's fastest one-second window. From a Mike Petriello article:

 

"Of course, there are so many plays where a runner is merely jogging to first after having popped up, or trots home easily from third base when a teammate doubles, and those non-competitive plays don't exactly tell us anything about speed, so we had to find a way to exclude those plays and include only plays where maximum effort could be expected.

 

To account for that, we took all batted balls (excluding over-the-fence home runs), and looked at plays where a runner or hitter attempted to advance two or more bases (excluding runners who started on second base and the batted ball was an extra-base hit, as they can often jog home). Of the remaining runs, we'll sort them from slowest to fastest, and take the average of the fastest half. If that sounds complicated, it needs to be, but the results are extremely satisfying."

 

I know the new thing is forcing data. We've arrived at this place where we think any number is better than nothing, and that's simply not he case. People love to throw stuff against the wall before it's properly vetted. Data can be skewed, and can create bad analysis/decision making. I'd like to see this played out longer.

Let's just forget the numbers for a second. In terms of your own evaluation/eye test, would you say Eddie's defense and base running has gotten worse the past two seasons? I would, and given his age, that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. So that's why I threw out the theory that he may have struggled through some injuries we were never made aware of.

 

There were multiple times in the game recaps where I'd point out Rosie taking a really inefficient route to a ball. Could that be because he was missing that top gear and didn't properly account for it when he initially broke to the ball? I think it's possible.

  • Oldgoat_MN, markos, Sconnie and 4 others like this

#18 Platoon

Platoon

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 4,564 posts
  • LocationTwinsWorld

Posted 17 January 2018 - 08:44 AM

I don't think Rosario ever ran exceptional routes to a baseball. But what he did do was throw the ball with velocity and accuracy better than most. That certainly impacts the eye test in evaluating his defense. Some of those throwing opportunities are now gone, the extra base ones where there was a reasonable chance to get an out. Players seem to have quit taking the dare. One other question, or point. Did Rosario spend more time this year shuttling around the OF filling in for Kepler, or some time spent in CF? Or is that simply my perception.
TwinsWorld: Did you hear we just updated the Stadium Club?

If I wanted balls and strikes called by a robot, I would get an Xbox!

#19 Sconnie

Sconnie

    From the "right" side of the St Croix

  • Members
  • 3,568 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 17 January 2018 - 09:43 AM

 

I don't think Rosario ever ran exceptional routes to a baseball. But what he did do was throw the ball with velocity and accuracy better than most. That certainly impacts the eye test in evaluating his defense. Some of those throwing opportunities are now gone, the extra base ones where there was a reasonable chance to get an out. Players seem to have quit taking the dare. One other question, or point. Did Rosario spend more time this year shuttling around the OF filling in for Kepler, or some time spent in CF? Or is that simply my perception.

https://www.baseball...17-roster.shtml

 

It's your perception

 

2016 appeared to be the year he floated alot

 

           2017  20162015

Left     138    57     86

Center 10     37      4

Right      16     1         34

  • Minny505 and snap4birds like this

#20 bobs

bobs

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 143 posts

Posted 17 January 2018 - 09:53 AM

The fact that we have stats like this tells me we have too many stats.Eddie Rosario is a good baseball player who is still trying to get better.If anything, I feel like his attention to detail....routes, hitting cutoff men, throwing to the correct base, etc, are his biggest weakness on defense.His plate discipline has improved exponentially.On the bases, the decision making again is not always on point.  




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: eddie rosario