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Article: Rosenthal: Twins Agree to Deal With Addison Reed

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#121 Ben Noble

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 10:26 AM

 

While I think that the idea of a closer is outdated and the fact that saving your ace reliever for the 9th inning costs you games, the defined "closer" isn't going away just yet

 

I don't think the idea of a closer is in and of itself outdated...but I do think the value that many teams, managers and fans still place on the role of closer is definitely outdated.

 

I agree with you completely about how to utilize your best reliever (Reed), but I still like having one guy in that defined closer role, and I want that guy to have the right skill set to succeed in that role. Kintzler is a great example that we're all familiar with of a guy with less-than-stellar stuff who slotted in well as closer.

 

Rodney has less-than-stellar stuff at this point in his career, but I don't want to just go off of stats and honesty haven't watched him pitch enough the past few years to know how well his skill set matches up with what I want in a closer.


#122 Deduno Abides

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 10:43 AM

Yu Darvish: "Tired of Waitng For You"---The Kinks, 1965


Tom Petty: “The waiting is the hardest part.”
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#123 drjim

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 11:10 AM

I don't think the role of closer is overrated in the regular season. It strikes me as very important to have set roles and rhythms to maximize performance over the long haul. This can be occasionally stretched and flipped around, but it would be tough to keep it up for 6 months (playoffs are a different story).

 

I really like the idea of locking down Rodney for the 9th, with Reed/Hildenberger/Rogers/etc available for matchups. I do hope they are more creative than Rogers/Hildenberger 7th, Reed 8th, Rodney 9th. But I don't mind having a set 9th and working backwards.

 

It is actually shaping up into a nice pen, with some decent guys to fill it out, and multiple guys with options that can shuttle back and forth as needed.

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Papers...business papers.

#124 Danchat

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 12:06 PM

 

I don't think the role of closer is overrated in the regular season. It strikes me as very important to have set roles and rhythms to maximize performance over the long haul. This can be occasionally stretched and flipped around, but it would be tough to keep it up for 6 months (playoffs are a different story).

 

I really like the idea of locking down Rodney for the 9th, with Reed/Hildenberger/Rogers/etc available for matchups. I do hope they are more creative than Rogers/Hildenberger 7th, Reed 8th, Rodney 9th. But I don't mind having a set 9th and working backwards.

 

It is actually shaping up into a nice pen, with some decent guys to fill it out, and multiple guys with options that can shuttle back and forth as needed.

And the plus to the Reed signing is now say if Rodney is the closer and he closes 2 straight games and he needs a day off, they should be able to plop Reed into the 9th inning seamlessly. We had too many examples last season of having pitchers go multiple games without breaks (Belisle, Rogers).

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#125 stringer bell

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 12:42 PM

To the earlier comments that the Twins have too many bullpen arms, remember there are always injuries. They tend to occur in bunches. Last year, it was minor league relievers (and Chargois) who looked like they would be up by midseason. We will see if all eight or nine or ten who would figure to have a good chance to make the team stay healthy.
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#126 twinfan

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 05:28 PM

A very good deal. I still think Hughes can help and they need to get something out of him with that big salary. I don't like the Duke signing but we will see. Maybe Duffy can do well in long relief like he did this year. I don't see them keeping both Granite and Adrianza on the ML roster as both are weak on power numbers. One more starter should do it.


#127 kab21

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 06:01 PM

 

And the plus to the Reed signing is now say if Rodney is the closer and he closes 2 straight games and he needs a day off, they should be able to plop Reed into the 9th inning seamlessly. We had too many examples last season of having pitchers go multiple games without breaks (Belisle, Rogers).

I think the effect that you are talking about reaches further. Many times both Rodney and Reed will be used on the same days. The Twins now have guys like Hildenberger or Rogers as the 4th-6th best options in the bullpen. A bullpen is only as strong as the middle guys (3rd-5th guys) imo. Losing a lead in the 7th is only slightly less damaging than losing a game in the 9th.

 

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Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#128 Jax

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 06:38 PM

Good signing

#129 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 06:56 PM

I'm still recovering from the Viking's game yesterday, but this was a welcome sight when I checked TD today.My two cents:

 

  • I think they are done with the pen. I said before that I wanted someone better than Rodney. We got that. I'm quite happy with this signing, and even more impressed by the price.
  • I want Rodney to be the closer if they are going to use that role. Nothing against Reed, he's a better pitcher. I want him in those high leverage situations. Between Reed, Hildy, and Busenitz, we have a nice group of guys that we can throw in those situations. I think Duffey's problem last year was over use, and if that's the case, he's another one Molitor can rely on.
  • I do think this means May will be starting (which I want), when he's ready.
  • I do not agree that this means we are out on Darvish. I really think that Darvish hasn't moved because he's not getting the 150+M contract offer he was hoping for... from anyone. This will be interesting to see play out, b/c with ST only 4ish weeks away, I could see some of the lesser tiered SPs getting nervous and signing some deals. Darvish should want to set the market, but if he continues to wait, he's going to get the market set for him, and I don't think he's going to like the outcome. As for us, I do think we have a legit shot here, and a 135M payroll is not unreasonable.
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#130 birdwatcher

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 07:07 PM

 

Tom Petty: “The waiting is the hardest part.”

 

Jack Johnson, 2005: "Sitting, Waiting, Wishing".

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#131 mikecgrimes

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 07:07 PM

 

I don't think the idea of a closer is in and of itself outdated...but I do think the value that many teams, managers and fans still place on the role of closer is definitely outdated.

 

To me it's about the 1 run saves?a guy with an ERA of 5.50 is gonna save the vast majority of 2 and 3 run games, heck they would also save a solid majority of 1 run games.If you think a certain lesser relief pitcher will handle the pressure better then others that makes sense, but if the heart of the order is coming up in a 1 run game I would hope you go with your best available option.Who knows Rodney might pitch differently with the Twins outfield defense and not try to be to cute and get a few more strikeouts and become a top option.The same could be said for Reed or Duke.


#132 jtkoupal

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 07:28 PM

 

I don't think the idea of a closer is in and of itself outdated...but I do think the value that many teams, managers and fans still place on the role of closer is definitely outdated.

 

I agree with you completely about how to utilize your best reliever (Reed), but I still like having one guy in that defined closer role, and I want that guy to have the right skill set to succeed in that role. Kintzler is a great example that we're all familiar with of a guy with less-than-stellar stuff who slotted in well as closer.

 

Rodney has less-than-stellar stuff at this point in his career, but I don't want to just go off of stats and honesty haven't watched him pitch enough the past few years to know how well his skill set matches up with what I want in a closer.

In a one run game, you want your best reliever on the mound in the ninth. However, the ninth inning lead is irrelevant if you give up the lead earlier in the game. If it's more than a one run game, a league-average reliever will suffice. The difference between an average reliever and an elite closer in a three-run game, at best, is one blown save a season. For a two run lead, the difference is two blown saves a year. So you certainly would rather have your relief ace in the ninth, but if the game is on the line earlier, it is much more logical to use him earlier. Glen Perkins said that back in 2011 when he was the 7th inning guy. He said he probably saved as many games in the 7th as the revolving door of crappy closers saved in the 9th. So while it's definitely nice to have a "proven closer," I agree with Brian Kenny, Keith Law, Bill James, and all the other "statheads" that there is a more logical approach.


#133 Deduno Abides

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 07:44 PM

Jack Johnson, 2005: "Sitting, Waiting, Wishing".


Buddy Holly, 1957: “Crying, Waiting, Hoping.”
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#134 IndianaTwin

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 10:27 PM

Don Williams, 1980: “I Believe in Yu.”
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#135 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 16 January 2018 - 04:50 AM

Slightly bigger point to 2019

Reed $8.5M (Guesstimate on how contract is broken down)
Castro $8M
Santana $14M option (with vesting?)
Rodney $.25M
Pineda $8M
Hughes $13.2M
Park $3M (unless someone can show where it has been voided)

Sorry to say but that's $54.95M for those 7...3 of who may not contribute at all

Just a little sun shower on an otherwise Bright Sunshiny Day!


I see you added Reed to your calculations.

Park requested out of his contract, so the Twins will not be paying him this year or next, according to this article:

http://mengnews.join...spx?aid=3041292

Santana’s 2019 option vests with 400 IP between 2017 and 2018, including 200 in 2018. He pitched 211 in 2017, so if he gets 200 imthis year, it will vest. Since he turned 30, he has hit 200IP two out of five years. I’m guessing it’s 50-50 at best that option vests.

#136 snap4birds

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 01:44 PM

Just saw a tidbit here about Reed http://www.stltoday....ef5729a101.html

 

Speculation that many teams had reservations about Addison Reed's workload the last couple years.I haven't really paid much attention, but the article stated he seemed close to signing with 'multiple' teams, only to have the deals fall through.  
 

 

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#137 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 02:27 PM

 

Just saw a tidbit here about Reed http://www.stltoday....ef5729a101.html

 

Speculation that many teams had reservations about Addison Reed's workload the last couple years.I haven't really paid much attention, but the article stated he seemed close to signing with 'multiple' teams, only to have the deals fall through.  
 

 

I've heard that one, but I don't know. I didn't hear those concerns about Bryan Shaw when he was signed and if anyone has been overworked it's been him and he got a bigger and longer deal (though to be fair, I don't think the Rockies are a very astute organization).

 

Also seems like everyone has been trying to get their hands on Brad Hand who's seen more work than Reed. Mike Minor threw more innings than Reed last year and Minor was coming off of basically two missed seasons due to arm and shoulder injuries.

 

Unless there are sketchy medicals, which the Twins also surely would have viewed, I'd bet the concern lies more with the fact that the Mets are viewed quite unfavorably in terms of their pitcher usage the last half decade or so.

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#138 birdwatcher

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 03:43 PM

 

Jack Johnson, 2005: "Sitting, Waiting, Wishing".

 

Buddy Holly, 1957: “Crying, Waiting, Hoping.”

 

To Falvey: The Dip, 2015: "Don't Make Me Wait" 




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