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Article: The Time For A Buxton Extension Is Now

byron buxton brian dozier
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#21 prouster

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 10:15 AM

Buxton sure looks like he will be a superstar. But, let's face it: he has only hit well in 1 month of one season (2016), and 3 months of another (2017). And for the first 90 games last year - no small sample - he was utterly lost at the plate. So let's not roll out the anointing oils just yet. Let him hit like a real big leaguer for a full year first.

It was mainly the first two weeks of last season that pulled down his total numbers. Without those two weeks, his batting line becomes league average. It's hard to overstate how bad he was out of the gate.

Edit: Not saying the rest of April and May were good, just that they were tolerable compared to his first handful of games.

Edited by prouster, 12 January 2018 - 10:16 AM.

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#22 SF Twins Fan

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 10:34 AM

 

Based on second halves, why not extend Gibson then?  

 

And it is not that simple.He is extremely inconsistent, had a great September of 2016 and then cooled off again.Not sure what we are seeing is not a mirage.Here is his OPS+ by month last 2 seasons:

 

A 2016 37
M 2016 99
J 2016 54
J 2016 71
A 2016 0
S 2016 170
A 2017 24
M 2017 88
J 2017 37
J 2017 160
A 2017 152
S 2017 112

 

Let's see him have a quality 1st half next season, and then let's talk about extensions or not.There is replacement who will be ready before he runs out of team control...

 

 

I mean if you're going to talk about seeing a player play a full season lets throw Sano into that category as well. He played in only 80 games in 2015 after his call up, then only 116 in his first full season in 2016 and only 114 in 2017.

 

I don't understand why you would want to extend Sano since he can't stay on the field but not extend Buxton.

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#23 slash129

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 10:39 AM

In support of a Buxton extension and without trying to respond individually anymore to those in the wait-and-see camp (very valid position), it should also be noted that despite the peaks and troughs (often extended) of his offensive game, Mr. Buxton has always "forgot-about-it" when he runs out to centerfield each half inning. That's not necessarily a measurable statistic, but it's a very desirable trait of professionalism in a multi-faceted game like baseball.

 

As a mid-to-small market team, the Twins will need to get some competitive advantage by figuring out how to measure some of those immeasurables and then proceed with getting the best deal on extensions. 

 

I don't think 7/150 is a wise gamble, but doing some projection, cost controlling arb years and then attempting to secure or option even 1 or 2 FA years with Byron Buxton is in the team's best interest .... this off-season .... IMO.

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#24 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 10:44 AM

 

Not solely on offense...Offense is his problem.He has not yet produced a MLB-average full season.Not sure whether he would be Vince Coleman or Ricky Henderson at this point, and I would have a hard time arguing for Vince Coleman's extension.Gold glove defense aside. 

 

Vince Coleman was a base-stealer in an era when that was a much bigger deal, he wasn't a stand out defensive stud.

 

Also, Byron Buxton has already tied Vince Coleman's career HR total. Those two aren't the same kind of player. Coleman is probably a good comp for Billy Hamilton.

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#25 Taildragger8791

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 11:07 AM

 

Based on second halves, why not extend Gibson then?  

 

And it is not that simple.He is extremely inconsistent, had a great September of 2016 and then cooled off again.Not sure what we are seeing is not a mirage.Here is his OPS+ by month last 2 seasons:

 

A 2016 37
M 2016 99
J 2016 54
J 2016 71
A 2016 0
S 2016 170
A 2017 24
M 2017 88
J 2017 37
J 2017 160
A 2017 152
S 2017 112

 

Let's see him have a quality 1st half next season, and then let's talk about extensions or not.There is replacement who will be ready before he runs out of team control...

 

I don't see how those are even comparable. Gibson is 30 and his brief periods of success basically amount to league average performance for a month or so at a time. He's never going to cost a fortune if he finally clicks, so there's not much of an advantage for the Twins to lock him up. He doesn't even have a ceiling as an all star.

 

Buxton is 24 with a crazy high ceiling and already is elite on D and the basepaths. If he starts hitting consistently over a full season then his contract demands will skyrocket 6 months from now. By the time you've waited for him to prove it he's got the leverage to jack his price up 50%.

 

I don't think you'll ever get Sano to sign an early deal like that. There's a reason he went to Roc Nation as soon as he could. He's got his sights set on big things and taking a cheap deal to get locked up in Minnesota through his prime isn't part of that. That, and I have a suspicion he sees himself as more like Harper/Machado than as the "3 true outcomes" injury-prone slugger he's shown to be so far. The value gap between those two types of players is too enormous to close right now.

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#26 Brandon

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 11:08 AM

Anyone want to break dowm a range year to year of possible extention scenarios? With comps.

Now is the best chance for a discount. If there is no discount from the player for the security whether it be an extra year or three of team control or lower AAV, sign him if Buxton makes no consessions continue to go year to year.
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#27 Nick Nelson

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 11:25 AM

 

If the team believes in its forecasts for their various players (or, more importantly, the various forecasts contain assumptions about risk), then they can save a lot of money that can be put to other uses. If they wait until the forecasts come true, there is not much scope for them to offer the trade-off of risk relief to the player for salary relief to the team.

Well put!!

 

 

Not solely on offense...Offense is his problem.He has not yet produced a MLB-average full season.Not sure whether he would be Vince Coleman or Ricky Henderson at this point, and I would have a hard time arguing for Vince Coleman's extension.Gold glove defense aside. 

He also just turned 24. The problem with this "wait and see" approach is that if you wait one more year, and Buxton turns in the kind of 2018 season many of us (including myself) envision, it's a different ballgame this time next year. That's kind of the point with this post, and the other situations referenced.

 

The Twins locked up Dozier ahead of his true breakout, at a time where he hadn't posted an OPS over 762 and was hardly a star yet. Being proactive and anticipating his continued improvement saved them many millions. Meanwhile, Morneau went from laggard to MVP at age 25. How much more could they have saved if they extended him long-term ahead of that 2006 season?

 

I dunno, with all due respect, saying "wait until he proves he's worth a lot of money and then pay him a lot of money" is not shrewd analysis. That kind of simplistic thinking is not what this front office was brought in for. And given that you were advocating not so long ago for trading Buxton and replacing him with Granite, I'm not sure you fully recognize the value Buck already brings and the likelihood that he's going to be a top-tier player in this league. 

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#28 Matthew Lenz

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 12:01 PM

I'm in the camp of extending Buxton ASAP.It's fair to confidently think that he will continue to improve on the offensive end, but with his defense being what it is...he can provide similar overall value as an above average to elite offensive player.

 

He's always going to have injury concerns because of his play style.Last thing we want is for him to change how he plays the game.

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#29 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 12:03 PM

Superstar youngsters aren't signing these types of deals anymore, for good reason. If I was the Twins, I'd certainly want to do this deal, but if Buxton is even "meh" on offense, he'll get more than 30MM a year on the open market by the time he's a FA. If I'm him, I don't sign for two reasons:

 

1. I bet I can make a lot more in FA.

2. The Twins have shown no signs of spending money on FAs to win. Nor have they traded to add ML talent. I'm not sure they'll ever go all in, so why would I stay?

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#30 ashburyjohn

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 12:11 PM

Coleman is probably a good comp for Billy Hamilton.

Perhaps a Billy Hamilton who somehow forgot his skills and played a below-average LF instead of above-average CF.

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#31 KirbyDome89

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 12:23 PM

 

Based on second halves, why not extend Gibson then?  

 

And it is not that simple.He is extremely inconsistent, had a great September of 2016 and then cooled off again.Not sure what we are seeing is not a mirage.  

 

Let's see him have a quality 1st half next season, and then let's talk about extensions or not.There is replacement who will be ready before he runs out of team control...

You could easily say the same thing about Rosario. He certainly was helped by a hot August/September last year. He has had his own issues with consistency and there are other obvious warts. Why is he an extension candidate but Buxton isn't? 

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#32 DuluthFan

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 12:48 PM

Buxton has yet to establish a baseline or floor on his production. Is he a career player like the first half or second half? You can't offer a long term extension based only on half a season's worth of production. He won't accept a contract based on his first half and the team cannot offer a contract based only on the second half.

 

If you wait until numbers are exchanged in the first year of arbitration, you will find out what kind of numbers the player is looking for. At worst the team will be on the hook for a single year contract based on his actual production in comparison to other players of similar age and skill. A long term extension can then be negotiated with an idea of what both sides are looking for.

 

Buxton also ended the year with an injury. It would be hard to sign a long term contract with an injured player without seeing if that injury had affected his play.

 


#33 gunnarthor

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:14 PM

Honestly, until the owners step up and show what kind of payroll this team can support, I don't think there is any reason for Buxton to sign longterm. He makes minimum this year and then has three arb years left. He could realistically make 40m in just those three arb years without locking himself to the team. 

First arb year - 4-7m

second arbyear - 11-16m

third arb year - 16-20+

 

Charlie Blackmon just got 14m in his third year, Donaldson just got 23m! Machado is going to the arbitrator b/c he couldn't come to an agreement but he'll easily get 20m, I'd bet. Salaries are sky rocketing. And as a FA at 28, he should bet on himself at this point.

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#34 USAFChief

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:38 PM

It's probably already too late to get a reasonably priced extension done. But if Buxton is willing, Falvine better be all iver this.
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#35 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:42 PM

 

It's probably already too late to get a reasonably priced extension done. But if Buxton is willing, Falvine better be all iver this.

 

I read that as "all liver" and could not figure out what that meant!

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#36 Thrylos

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 02:09 PM

 


The Twins locked up Dozier ahead of his true breakout, at a time where he hadn't posted an OPS over 762 and was hardly a star yet.

 

I would have zero objections if they locked him up to a Dozier-like deal ;)

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#37 Thrylos

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 02:10 PM

 

 

 

I don't think you'll ever get Sano to sign an early deal like that.

 

Got to try before you try Buxton.If for no other reason that there is no obvious replacement for him in the organization, where there likely is for Buxton...

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#38 Platoon

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 02:45 PM

I won't even begin to try and put numbers on a Buxton extension. But as a general point, if I was going to extend anyone, maybe anyone in MLB, it would be him. His ceiling is stratospheric. And his floor is only going to be determined with an injury, which is unforseeable. His defense is already elite, as is his speed and baserunning. His hitting may not end up elite, but I bet there will be a lot of guys on the stat sheets looking up at him. As for whom, Buxton or Sano to tie down first? I don't see that as much of a decision. Injuries and other issues have riddled Sano with question marks. He, not Buxton would be the one I let settle in for a year. Btw, I totally agree with the poster that said without some more quality pitching, this whole conversation may be irrelevant.
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#39 ashburyjohn

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 03:11 PM

 there is no obvious replacement for him in the organization, where there likely is for Buxton...

Small Sample Size, sliced-and-diced stats, yadda yadda yadda, but...

 

Didn't the team make a post-season push, sans Sano? His game log on b-r.com shows the team went 58-56 with him, marginally better at 27-21 without.

 

Whereas with Buxton in the lineup, even with the horrific start at the plate, they went 77-63 with him, and a putrid 8-14 when he was out.

 

Looks like the Twins managed to find players to fill in for Sano, while they struggled to find a way to replace Buxton. The data, insufficient though it may be, points in the other direction you suggest. Is Granite an obvious replacement for Buxton? Hardly. Who else we got knocking on the door?

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#40 Thrylos

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 03:21 PM

 

Small Sample Size, sliced-and-diced stats, yadda yadda yadda, but...

 

Didn't the team make a post-season push, sans Sano? His game log on b-r.com shows the team went 58-56 with him, 27-21 without.

 

Whereas with Buxton in the lineup, even with the horrific start at the plate, they went 77-63 with him and a putrid 8-14 when he was out.

 

The data, insufficient though it may be, points in the other direction as to which player is more indispensable. Is Granite an obvious replacement for Buxton? Hardly. Who else we got knocking on the door?

 

 

Second part of the post:

Royce Lewis will likely be ready within the 4 years of Buxton control.

 

First part of the post:

Counter arguments (SSS and all.)

 

1. if Sano were not a monster in the first half, the Twins would not be close to making the post season

2. if Buxton was playing at 20% below league average offensively in the first half the Twins would not have to be sellers at the break, thus potentially going further in the post-season.

Really the bottom line is that Sano is more irreplaceable that Buxton, based on who is around in the Twins' organization.Top 5 exit velocity does not grow on trees.What Buxton brings on the table does not either, but Royce Lewis brings the same skill set as well.If I were to dangle someone in a trade a couple years from now (with Lewis being there) it would be Buxton because there is ready substitute.

 

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