Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Store

Photo

Extend high-upside "prospect" Morneau today?

  • Please log in to reply
60 replies to this topic

#1 Willihammer

Willihammer

    ice cream correspondent

  • Members
  • 2,821 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul

Posted 23 August 2012 - 02:53 PM

Potato Head has played in 99 of the Twins 123 games this year, excluding the 15 games in May when his wrist was sore. 71 of the 99 games he played at 1B, where for his career he has posted positive defensive value. Plus his wRC+ has improved dramatically, going from 69 in 2011 to 117 this year.

If Morneau continues to improve next season, the Twins won't likely offer Morneau a compelling salary afterwards esp. given Morneau's frustration with TF. However by extending Morneau today, the Twins stand to hold their only power lefthander at considerable discount through his age 37 season while assuming significant injury risk. Something like 5/30 would be very hard for Morneau to turn down at this moment, I think.

#2 Dilligaf69

Dilligaf69

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 365 posts

Posted 23 August 2012 - 02:58 PM

This will not happen and should'nt untill they figure out the rotation...

#3 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,510 posts

Posted 23 August 2012 - 03:01 PM

Depending on the price, it's worth exploring. If you can get him for ~$7m a year (I don't think you can), you consider giving him another couple of years.

I don't think it will happen. It's really in no one's interest to pursue that kind of contract.

#4 J-Dog Dungan

J-Dog Dungan

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 660 posts

Posted 23 August 2012 - 03:10 PM

I think the Twins have been holding back Parmelee in AAA long enough, as he is tearing it up down there. They are in a fairly solid spot to trade Morneau for a pitcher or two and have a candidate ready to take over the spot if it does happen, and if Mornie's TV is high enough to get the pitcher's we are asking for.

#5 JB_Iowa

JB_Iowa

    Cynical Oldie

  • Members
  • 3,517 posts
  • LocationNorthwest Iowa

Posted 23 August 2012 - 03:33 PM

He isn't a 25 year old prospect. He is a 31 year old player. I'm holding my breath that he stays healthy for the rest of THIS contract.

Talking about giving him a long extension makes my stomach roll. (And I LIKE Justin as a player and think he's very valuable when healthy. I just have no faith in his long-term ability to stay on the field).

#6 BeefMaster

BeefMaster

    Member

  • Members
  • 32 posts

Posted 23 August 2012 - 03:52 PM

I don't think you can even consider giving Morneau a contract extension before next season (if even then). If Chris Parmelee is for real, Morneau's a man without a position, much like Parmelee is right now. If Parmelee turns back into a pumpkin next year, then Morneau might be worth giving another year or two, if the Twins don't have anyone else to put there. However, five years strikes me as borderline insane - frankly, any more than two years seems like too much, given his health history. Also, all this assumes that the Twins don't trade him for prospects next year - if the team isn't in contention, he's the most likely trade bait on the roster.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

#7 birdwatcher

birdwatcher

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 878 posts

Posted 23 August 2012 - 04:00 PM

Will Morneau fetch us a top of the rotation starter his age or younger? If yes, the conversation should end. I'd also be willing to trade Parmelee instead, for a 26 year old #2 starter and take my chances with Morneau and Mauer at 1B. Hmm, wonder if Willingham has a first baseman's glove in the back of his locker...

#8 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Moderators
  • 4,477 posts

Posted 23 August 2012 - 04:11 PM

My heart says yes, let him retire a Twin. My head says no. I think Morneau gets traded at the deadline if he continues on the path he's on now and Parmelee takes his place. That's the right decision unless they move Doumit back into a more traditional catching role and keep Mauer back there more too and give one of them a full time DH.

#9 Willihammer

Willihammer

    ice cream correspondent

  • Members
  • 2,821 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul

Posted 23 August 2012 - 04:39 PM

Also, all this assumes that the Twins don't trade him for prospects next year - if the team isn't in contention, he's the most likely trade bait on the roster.


TD groupthink assumes the the opposite way.

What if Morneau is terrific next year? He is certainly trending better. What if the team is in contention?

What if Parmelee thrives in right field? 1B and corner outfield esp. are supposed to provide cheap power. Not slap hitters who can't even steal effectively (Span, Hicks).

What if Span hits .320 and teams are more interested in him next July?

I don't think it will happen. It's really in no one's interest to pursue that kind of contract.


I think, today, $30m would interest the Morenose familyi. Next at this time, maybe they will scoff at it.

#10 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,510 posts

Posted 23 August 2012 - 04:47 PM

I don't think it will happen. It's really in no one's interest to pursue that kind of contract.


I think, today, $30m would interest the Morenose familyi. Next at this time, maybe they will scoff at it.


I think the Twins would be insane to offer anything close to $30m and Morneau would be insane not to take it.

I was talking more in the two year, $15m range. Justin probably feels he could do better than that on the market and I'd agree with him.

#11 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 4,225 posts

Posted 23 August 2012 - 04:54 PM

Extending Morneau will not only continue blocking Parmelee who has a small window for the Twins to see what he can do in the majors before Sano is ready, but it also takes away a potential decent starter that the Twins can get by trading him this off-season. This team does not need to extend thirty-somethings. Look at what the Rays have been doing with their old men, and whether they have been competing or not.
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#12 kab21

kab21

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,319 posts

Posted 23 August 2012 - 08:58 PM

Unless something changed in the last CBA you need to let a player hit FA if you want to pay him <80% of his previous contract (yearly value). That means that you must extend him at around 11M/yr.

The Twins aren't getting a potential decent starter this offseason for Morneau. About the only thing to do now is ride out Morneau's last year and potentially deal him at the deadline when he will have been healthy longer and will be owed less money.

#13 mk

mk

    Member

  • Members
  • 62 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 08:40 AM

When estimating Morneau's next contact maybe you don't have to look too far to find a comparable. Going into free agency, Josh Willingham was 32 years old and had averaged 128.5 games per season 2006 - 2011. Going into free agency after next season, Morneau will be 32 years old and over the span of 2006 - 2011 he has averaged 127 games per season.

Both 32 year old free agents with injury history and very similar stat lines 06 - 11. Of course, not all things are comparable as Morneau plays a good 1B, has an MVP award, and is a 4-time all star.

Willingham got 3 years and $21 mil. What can Morneau expect?

#14 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,510 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 08:44 AM

Willingham got 3 years and $21 mil. What can Morneau expect?


If he puts up a 2013 line of .850 OPS and stays healthy, I think he'll get somewhere between $25-30m over three years. If he drops closer to an .800 OPS like he has now, I think he'll get Josh Willingham money.

#15 mk

mk

    Member

  • Members
  • 62 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 09:23 AM

Willingham got 3 years and $21 mil. What can Morneau expect?


If he puts up a 2013 line of .850 OPS and stays healthy, I think he'll get somewhere between $25-30m over three years. If he drops closer to an .800 OPS like he has now, I think he'll get Josh Willingham money.


So, that brings back the original question. Is it in the Twins' best interest to try to extend Morneau now at 3/25 or 3/30. A healthy Morneau has an OPS of .886 since July 1 which could put him closer to an Adrian Gonzalez comp (7 years, $154,000,000). Coincidentally, Morneau is at the top of all the Baseball-Reference Similarity Scores for A-Gon.

#16 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 5,816 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 09:42 AM

I think they should package him and money for a big time prospect or something like that. I just don't see the money for both him, and pitching at the same time. I'd love for him to retire a Twin, I'm a huge fan of him as a player and a person.
Lighten up Francis....

#17 DPJ

DPJ

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 636 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:01 AM

I think it would be extremely foolish to invest any money longterm into Justin. Happy as a pig in **** he's been able to come back and play, but this man has the body of an 90 year old World War 2 vet. He's a banged up 32 year old lumbering 1B, those guys aren't that hard to replace. Plus I actually want to see what Parmelee can do (and he's no OF) He might not match Justin's production, but IMO he'll come close and it will only cost 400K.

#18 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,510 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:03 AM

So, that brings back the original question. Is it in the Twins' best interest to try to extend Morneau now at 3/25 or 3/30. A healthy Morneau has an OPS of .886 since July 1 which could put him closer to an Adrian Gonzalez comp (7 years, $154,000,000). Coincidentally, Morneau is at the top of all the Baseball-Reference Similarity Scores for A-Gon.


I would only consider bringing back Morneau if you could get him for two years and considerably less than $10m per year. With Parmelee in the wings, there's no reason to dump a ton of money into the guy. If he wants more, just trade him.

#19 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 816 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:21 AM

I think they should extend him for 3 years between 27 - 30 mil a year. These are the reasons.
1. No one will give full value for him and he could walk after next year(if he has a good year and make more money, while the Twins would have a PR disaster.
2. No garentee Parmalee will work out leaving a big hole in the Twins lineup.
3. Could cause PR issues with Mauer if he leaves and Twins continue to lose( a possiblity
4. A Parmalee and Span package to the Mariners, Tampa Bay or LA Dodgers(possiibly Washington) could possibly bring back pitching help Twins need. Except for the Dodgers the other clubs watch their budget.
5. Money should not be an issue according to TR this offseason. Twins need to bring in a pitcher so they have money to spend on a middle infielder (flyer on Stephen Drew anyone)

#20 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Moderators
  • 4,477 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:28 AM

2. No garentee Parmalee will work out leaving a big hole in the Twins lineup.



maybe so, but that's true of any prospect... You don't hang on to aging vets simply because a prospect might not work out. Given what Parm is doing, I'd say he's a better bet to work out than just about any prospect in the system.

#21 greengoblinrulz

greengoblinrulz

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,759 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:30 AM

I think they should extend him for 3 years between 27 - 30 mil a year. These are the reasons.
1. No one will give full value for him and he could walk after next year(if he has a good year and make more money, while the Twins would have a PR disaster.
2. No garentee Parmalee will work out leaving a big hole in the Twins lineup.
3. Could cause PR issues with Mauer if he leaves and Twins continue to lose( a possiblity
4. A Parmalee and Span package to the Mariners, Tampa Bay or LA Dodgers(possiibly Washington) could possibly bring back pitching help Twins need. Except for the Dodgers the other clubs watch their budget.
5. Money should not be an issue according to TR this offseason. Twins need to bring in a pitcher so they have money to spend on a middle infielder (flyer on Stephen Drew anyone)

hope/assume you meant 27-30m TOTAL not per year.
If not.....yikes. Even Bill Smith would call that a bad deal!!!

Agree about 8-10m is about right for Justin, just am not interested in keeping him even tho his upside for that contract could be great.

#22 sorney

sorney

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 134 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:32 AM

If you can't trade him, you let him walk next year.

#23 DPJ

DPJ

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 636 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:33 AM

1. You're right, no team is gonna give him fill value to a guys who's body and head and gone through hell and back of the last couple years. So why suddenly after an decent year where he still spent time on the DL do you wanna wrapper 30 million back into him?

2. There's no guarantee that any prospect works out, but this is what bad teams do. You get rid of expensive vets when you have cost controlled kids in the minors ready to roll.

3. PR disaster my ass, Morneau isn't one of the top players in the league. He's not a cornerstone player, he's an ok expensive 1B. You know what's gonna mean more to fans, using that money to address the pitching staff and get this team back on track.

4. What realistically MLB ready package do you see Parm and Span bringing back?

5. Money isn't an issue, but using that money wisely is what's important. When you have a MLB ready 1B in the minors that looks like he can realistically fill 1B I don't know why you throw 30 million at an old aging 1B.

#24 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 816 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:40 AM

I think they should extend him for 3 years between 27 - 30 mil a year. These are the reasons.
1. No one will give full value for him and he could walk after next year(if he has a good year and make more money, while the Twins would have a PR disaster.
2. No garentee Parmalee will work out leaving a big hole in the Twins lineup.
3. Could cause PR issues with Mauer if he leaves and Twins continue to lose( a possiblity
4. A Parmalee and Span package to the Mariners, Tampa Bay or LA Dodgers(possiibly Washington) could possibly bring back pitching help Twins need. Except for the Dodgers the other clubs watch their budget.
5. Money should not be an issue according to TR this offseason. Twins need to bring in a pitcher so they have money to spend on a middle infielder (flyer on Stephen Drew anyone)

hope/assume you meant 27-30m TOTAL not per year.
If not.....yikes. Even Bill Smith would call that a bad deal!!!

Agree about 8-10m is about right for Justin, just am not interested in keeping him even tho his upside for that contract could be great.

Me bad, meant 3 years. I have more concerns about points 1 and 3 than Parmalee. Also at Morneau's price he does not have much trade value at this time.
Trading has changed and small market teams will not give up good pitching prospects for older high priced players. Even the Dodgers were interested only if the Twins were doing a salary dump. So you have to trade pieces and prospects from positions of strength, right now for theTwins that is outfield and first base

#25 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,510 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:44 AM

Me bad, meant 3 years. I have more concerns about points 1 and 3 than Parmalee. Also at Morneau's price he does not have much trade value at this time.
Trading has changed and small market teams will not give up good pitching prospects for older high priced players. Even the Dodgers were interested only if the Twins were doing a salary dump. So you have to trade pieces and prospects from positions of strength, right now for theTwins that is outfield and first base


With the new CBA rules mandating caps on international signings and the draft, I expect to see a shift where teams eat the salary of players like Morneau more readily just so they can get quality prospects in return. With those new caps on spending, it's not as if the Twins could take that $7m and use it in the draft or to pick up another Sano-type player. So it makes sense that they will start paying existing player salaries to bolster their farm system.

#26 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 816 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:51 AM

1. You're right, no team is gonna give him fill value to a guys who's body and head and gone through hell and back of the last couple years. So why suddenly after an decent year where he still spent time on the DL do you wanna wrapper 30 million back into him?

2. There's no guarantee that any prospect works out, but this is what bad teams do. You get rid of expensive vets when you have cost controlled kids in the minors ready to roll.

3. PR disaster my ass, Morneau isn't one of the top players in the league. He's not a cornerstone player, he's an ok expensive 1B. You know what's gonna mean more to fans, using that money to address the pitching staff and get this team back on track.

4. What realistically MLB ready package do you see Parm and Span bringing back?

5. Money isn't an issue, but using that money wisely is what's important. When you have a MLB ready 1B in the minors that looks like he can realistically fill 1B I don't know why you throw 30 million at an old aging 1B.


Good reply.
I would agree if Morneau was 34 - 35. He is 31- 32. There is a decent chance he could have 2 good years left. All the clubs I listed are budget watchers with the exception of the Dodgers. All these clubs also have excess starting pitching. Dodgers would not package any of there four top prospects for Dempster, but I would expect this package could pry one of them loose. If they wanted Morneau and would give up 2 of the four with Span included go for it.
Tampa Bay and Seattle have not been afraid to part with prospects if they return cheap hole fillers. That is why I feel that Parmalee and Span could bring 1 close to major league 2 -3 starting pitcher and 1 or 2 single A prospects.

#27 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 816 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 11:01 AM

One last note: The PR disaster is twofold:
1. As the Twins hopefully retool, fan support drops lowing the budget to add pieces. From 30+ a night to between 15 - 20, Now Mauer's salary becomes an albatross.
2. Mauer decides to make the Hall of Fame, he needs to win a title, so trys to force his way out when his value is on the decline. That is the PR disaster I meant. Do not run over the Mauer's friends or it may be worse than you think.

#28 Twins Twerp

Twins Twerp

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 784 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 11:08 AM

No way do you offer him a contract. Ride him out through this contract if you can't trade him. We have the cards here. If TR can get a decent deal, then we trade him. If we can't then keep him at the 14.5 for next year. If he over performs next year, you offer him the 11.5-12 million one year deal. If he takes it, we get our Mornie, if he declines, we get a sandwich round pick. I don't think we need to go out and shop this guy hard.

I also think we can shed some cash if we do trade him, if LA comes in and offers us that young pitching prospect if we pay half his 2013 salary, I jump at that. That is a great deal for us. I like the guy, but this is a business and he has not given us half of the production you need for 14.5 mil a year. He should be the most thankful Canadian in the US. We haven't wasted money on a Canadian like this since the Titanic soundtrack.

#29 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Moderators
  • 4,477 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 11:10 AM

Seattle shouldn't be trading prospects for established players... Period.

#30 Twins Twerp

Twins Twerp

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 784 posts

Posted 24 August 2012 - 11:14 AM

Agree about 8-10m is about right for Justin, just am not interested in keeping him even tho his upside for that contract could be great.[/QUOTE]

8-10 million? The guy can't hit left handed pitching? He is at best a platoon player. Parmalee will cost 14 million less, money that could be spent on a pitcher or 2. I don't understand the idea of trying to keep him. The production we can get from another average first baseman is the same, for much less money.