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Extend high-upside "prospect" Morneau today?

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#1 Willihammer

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 02:53 PM

Potato Head has played in 99 of the Twins 123 games this year, excluding the 15 games in May when his wrist was sore. 71 of the 99 games he played at 1B, where for his career he has posted positive defensive value. Plus his wRC+ has improved dramatically, going from 69 in 2011 to 117 this year.

If Morneau continues to improve next season, the Twins won't likely offer Morneau a compelling salary afterwards esp. given Morneau's frustration with TF. However by extending Morneau today, the Twins stand to hold their only power lefthander at considerable discount through his age 37 season while assuming significant injury risk. Something like 5/30 would be very hard for Morneau to turn down at this moment, I think.

#2 Dilligaf69

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 02:58 PM

This will not happen and should'nt untill they figure out the rotation...

#3 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 03:01 PM

Depending on the price, it's worth exploring. If you can get him for ~$7m a year (I don't think you can), you consider giving him another couple of years.

I don't think it will happen. It's really in no one's interest to pursue that kind of contract.

#4 J-Dog Dungan

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 03:10 PM

I think the Twins have been holding back Parmelee in AAA long enough, as he is tearing it up down there. They are in a fairly solid spot to trade Morneau for a pitcher or two and have a candidate ready to take over the spot if it does happen, and if Mornie's TV is high enough to get the pitcher's we are asking for.

#5 JB_Iowa

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 03:33 PM

He isn't a 25 year old prospect. He is a 31 year old player. I'm holding my breath that he stays healthy for the rest of THIS contract.

Talking about giving him a long extension makes my stomach roll. (And I LIKE Justin as a player and think he's very valuable when healthy. I just have no faith in his long-term ability to stay on the field).

#6 BeefMaster

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 03:52 PM

I don't think you can even consider giving Morneau a contract extension before next season (if even then). If Chris Parmelee is for real, Morneau's a man without a position, much like Parmelee is right now. If Parmelee turns back into a pumpkin next year, then Morneau might be worth giving another year or two, if the Twins don't have anyone else to put there. However, five years strikes me as borderline insane - frankly, any more than two years seems like too much, given his health history. Also, all this assumes that the Twins don't trade him for prospects next year - if the team isn't in contention, he's the most likely trade bait on the roster.
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#7 birdwatcher

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 04:00 PM

Will Morneau fetch us a top of the rotation starter his age or younger? If yes, the conversation should end. I'd also be willing to trade Parmelee instead, for a 26 year old #2 starter and take my chances with Morneau and Mauer at 1B. Hmm, wonder if Willingham has a first baseman's glove in the back of his locker...

#8 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 04:11 PM

My heart says yes, let him retire a Twin. My head says no. I think Morneau gets traded at the deadline if he continues on the path he's on now and Parmelee takes his place. That's the right decision unless they move Doumit back into a more traditional catching role and keep Mauer back there more too and give one of them a full time DH.

#9 Willihammer

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 04:39 PM

Also, all this assumes that the Twins don't trade him for prospects next year - if the team isn't in contention, he's the most likely trade bait on the roster.


TD groupthink assumes the the opposite way.

What if Morneau is terrific next year? He is certainly trending better. What if the team is in contention?

What if Parmelee thrives in right field? 1B and corner outfield esp. are supposed to provide cheap power. Not slap hitters who can't even steal effectively (Span, Hicks).

What if Span hits .320 and teams are more interested in him next July?

I don't think it will happen. It's really in no one's interest to pursue that kind of contract.


I think, today, $30m would interest the Morenose familyi. Next at this time, maybe they will scoff at it.

#10 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 04:47 PM

I don't think it will happen. It's really in no one's interest to pursue that kind of contract.


I think, today, $30m would interest the Morenose familyi. Next at this time, maybe they will scoff at it.


I think the Twins would be insane to offer anything close to $30m and Morneau would be insane not to take it.

I was talking more in the two year, $15m range. Justin probably feels he could do better than that on the market and I'd agree with him.

#11 Thrylos

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 04:54 PM

Extending Morneau will not only continue blocking Parmelee who has a small window for the Twins to see what he can do in the majors before Sano is ready, but it also takes away a potential decent starter that the Twins can get by trading him this off-season. This team does not need to extend thirty-somethings. Look at what the Rays have been doing with their old men, and whether they have been competing or not.
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#12 kab21

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 08:58 PM

Unless something changed in the last CBA you need to let a player hit FA if you want to pay him <80% of his previous contract (yearly value). That means that you must extend him at around 11M/yr.

The Twins aren't getting a potential decent starter this offseason for Morneau. About the only thing to do now is ride out Morneau's last year and potentially deal him at the deadline when he will have been healthy longer and will be owed less money.

#13 mk

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Posted 24 August 2012 - 08:40 AM

When estimating Morneau's next contact maybe you don't have to look too far to find a comparable. Going into free agency, Josh Willingham was 32 years old and had averaged 128.5 games per season 2006 - 2011. Going into free agency after next season, Morneau will be 32 years old and over the span of 2006 - 2011 he has averaged 127 games per season.

Both 32 year old free agents with injury history and very similar stat lines 06 - 11. Of course, not all things are comparable as Morneau plays a good 1B, has an MVP award, and is a 4-time all star.

Willingham got 3 years and $21 mil. What can Morneau expect?

#14 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 August 2012 - 08:44 AM

Willingham got 3 years and $21 mil. What can Morneau expect?


If he puts up a 2013 line of .850 OPS and stays healthy, I think he'll get somewhere between $25-30m over three years. If he drops closer to an .800 OPS like he has now, I think he'll get Josh Willingham money.

#15 mk

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Posted 24 August 2012 - 09:23 AM

Willingham got 3 years and $21 mil. What can Morneau expect?


If he puts up a 2013 line of .850 OPS and stays healthy, I think he'll get somewhere between $25-30m over three years. If he drops closer to an .800 OPS like he has now, I think he'll get Josh Willingham money.


So, that brings back the original question. Is it in the Twins' best interest to try to extend Morneau now at 3/25 or 3/30. A healthy Morneau has an OPS of .886 since July 1 which could put him closer to an Adrian Gonzalez comp (7 years, $154,000,000). Coincidentally, Morneau is at the top of all the Baseball-Reference Similarity Scores for A-Gon.

#16 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 August 2012 - 09:42 AM

I think they should package him and money for a big time prospect or something like that. I just don't see the money for both him, and pitching at the same time. I'd love for him to retire a Twin, I'm a huge fan of him as a player and a person.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#17 DPJ

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Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:01 AM

I think it would be extremely foolish to invest any money longterm into Justin. Happy as a pig in **** he's been able to come back and play, but this man has the body of an 90 year old World War 2 vet. He's a banged up 32 year old lumbering 1B, those guys aren't that hard to replace. Plus I actually want to see what Parmelee can do (and he's no OF) He might not match Justin's production, but IMO he'll come close and it will only cost 400K.

#18 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:03 AM

So, that brings back the original question. Is it in the Twins' best interest to try to extend Morneau now at 3/25 or 3/30. A healthy Morneau has an OPS of .886 since July 1 which could put him closer to an Adrian Gonzalez comp (7 years, $154,000,000). Coincidentally, Morneau is at the top of all the Baseball-Reference Similarity Scores for A-Gon.


I would only consider bringing back Morneau if you could get him for two years and considerably less than $10m per year. With Parmelee in the wings, there's no reason to dump a ton of money into the guy. If he wants more, just trade him.

#19 beckmt

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Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:21 AM

I think they should extend him for 3 years between 27 - 30 mil a year. These are the reasons.
1. No one will give full value for him and he could walk after next year(if he has a good year and make more money, while the Twins would have a PR disaster.
2. No garentee Parmalee will work out leaving a big hole in the Twins lineup.
3. Could cause PR issues with Mauer if he leaves and Twins continue to lose( a possiblity
4. A Parmalee and Span package to the Mariners, Tampa Bay or LA Dodgers(possiibly Washington) could possibly bring back pitching help Twins need. Except for the Dodgers the other clubs watch their budget.
5. Money should not be an issue according to TR this offseason. Twins need to bring in a pitcher so they have money to spend on a middle infielder (flyer on Stephen Drew anyone)

#20 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 24 August 2012 - 10:28 AM

2. No garentee Parmalee will work out leaving a big hole in the Twins lineup.



maybe so, but that's true of any prospect... You don't hang on to aging vets simply because a prospect might not work out. Given what Parm is doing, I'd say he's a better bet to work out than just about any prospect in the system.