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#41 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 06:57 PM

 

there are still people saying he won't be a short stop. The fangraphs gut just said it in a chat. I don't think we know yet.

 

My guess is that there has never been a shortstop that could hit a bit whose ability to stay at shortstop defensively hasn't been questioned. 

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#42 PseudoSABR

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 07:03 PM

 

You and many others must have missed the first tine of the article that went with the list.

This one? 

"For each organization, we identify the 10 prospects with the highest ceilings, with consideration given to the likelihood of reaching those ceilings."

 

I think you may have missed the second clause in that sentence; certainly, proximity to the majors is factor in the likelihood of reaching one's ceiling.


#43 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 07:05 PM

 

Is 10+ WAR over 6 years supposed to be good? :-)

 

I can't imagine many backup catchers get anywhere near that... I think it assumes he plays some other spots and at some points, he becomes the primary catcher...


#44 Tuba

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 07:28 PM

No one concerned that Gordon had a .600 OPS from July 1st onward? I think its fair to look at that and drop him a few places. 

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#45 Thrylos

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:02 PM

 

My guess is that there has never been a shortstop that could hit a bit whose ability to stay at shortstop defensively hasn't been questioned. 

 

Derek Jeter.Cal Ripken, Honus Wagner, Joe Cronin, Lou Boudreau, etc... Even Noarm (sic) Garciaparra...

 

never is a long time.

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#46 Thrylos

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:03 PM

 

 

No one concerned that Gordon had a .600 OPS from July 1st onward? I think its fair to look at that and drop him a few places. 

 

Or .513 OPS against LHPs the whole season.

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#47 jimmer

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:09 PM

 

I can't imagine many backup catchers get anywhere near that... I think it assumes he plays some other spots and at some points, he becomes the primary catcher...

Is he going to stay a backup?I mean, is that the plan you think?

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#48 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 09:03 PM

 

Derek Jeter.Cal Ripken, Honus Wagner, Joe Cronin, Lou Boudreau, etc... Even Noarm (sic) Garciaparra...

 

never is a long time.

 

Yup, all of them had people questioning their ability to stick at shortstop... 

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#49 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 09:04 PM

 

Is he going to stay a backup?I mean, is that the plan you think?

 

I mean, the plan is for Castro to be the primary catcher the next two years... Garver could certainly eat into some of that playing time and play elsewhere, and then in two years, they'll figure out what's next.


#50 jimmer

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 09:37 PM

I mean, the plan is for Castro to be the primary catcher the next two years... Garver could certainly eat into some of that playing time and play elsewhere, and then in two years, they'll figure out what's next.

if Garver ends up deserving of starting, castro get traded after 2018.
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#51 kab21

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:23 PM

 

No one concerned that Gordon had a .600 OPS from July 1st onward? I think its fair to look at that and drop him a few places. 

I have been claiming that Gordon was overrated (but still a good prospect) all summer whenever theoretical trades were mentioned or the 2018 Twins roster was being guessed at.

You aren't the only one.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#52 old nurse

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:30 PM

 

This one? 

"For each organization, we identify the 10 prospects with the highest ceilings, with consideration given to the likelihood of reaching those ceilings."

 

I think you may have missed the second clause in that sentence; certainly, proximity to the majors is factor in the likelihood of reaching one's ceiling.

Not at all.If projects Gordon as a 2b with no power he would be below average for that position. As a shortstop he could be average to below average in fielding. Gordon is where he should be on the list based on ceiling weighing more than proximity to the majors. If he were higher based on that judging system the minor league system is not in that good of shape.The writer likes the high end potential of Graterol. If Romero and Gonsalves, who are as near to the majors as Gordon, are considered #3 or better starters, they are more valuable than an average to below average MI.When ceiling counts more than proximity to the majors, me must really like Rooker.If you value proximity to majors ias more valuable, then go to mlb.com.In 15 years you can see who had the better guess.

 

Would anyone rank them that way now?


#53 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:32 PM

Do people really think those two are number three or better starters? That seems a bit high to me from what I read. But let's hope you're correct.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#54 old nurse

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:36 PM

 

 

Derek Jeter.Cal Ripken, Honus Wagner, Joe Cronin, Lou Boudreau, etc... Even Noarm (sic) Garciaparra...

 

never is a long time.

Derailing for a second. Could you start a thread on what it was like watching Honus Wagner playEverything I have read said he was an exceptional fielder. Clearly you must have seen something others missed.


#55 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:26 AM

 

No one concerned that Gordon had a .600 OPS from July 1st onward? I think its fair to look at that and drop him a few places. 

 

Not yet. He did this in 2016 too, though his rapid start lasted much longer in 2017 before he cooled off. I suspect he's still working on the endurance aspect of being a full time player... I'm more concerned about his abilities against lefties. I still think he's got the potential to be above average in every category, but likely not elite in many if any at all.

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#56 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:27 AM

 

if Garver ends up deserving of starting, castro get traded after 2018.

 

Castro is on the books for one more year after 2018. I wouldn't be surprised if you simply see Garver dig into Castro's PT. There really isn't another catcher close to the majors for 2019. Catching is probably the biggest hole in our farm system right now.

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#57 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:28 AM

 

This one? 

"For each organization, we identify the 10 prospects with the highest ceilings, with consideration given to the likelihood of reaching those ceilings."

 

I think you may have missed the second clause in that sentence; certainly, proximity to the majors is factor in the likelihood of reaching one's ceiling.

I don't really buy the bolded when we are highly rating rookie league guys who aren't even top 100 prospects... It's all about ceiling, with likelihood not really being a factor.


#58 beckmt

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Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:51 AM

 

I don't really buy the bolded when we are highly rating rookie league guys who aren't even top 100 prospects... It's all about ceiling, with likelihood not really being a factor.

Likelihood is the second part of the equation.  

 


#59 beckmt

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Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:53 AM

I also feel that this list is why you see Gordon being listed in most trades for a starting pitcher.Close to major league ready, with enough of a projection to be a good major leaguer.  

And probably why Tampa Bay if you want Archer will start with someone higher up the list and maybe 2 of the top 5. 


#60 beckmt

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Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:55 AM

I have hopes for Rooker to possibly be someone very good, and he may be here next year.