Is the answer never sign a big time free agent? Or break the mold? I hope the latter, or it is very unlikely they ever win consistently,imo. I remain hopeful.
A’s fans and Ray’s fans, and the other very bottom revenue teams know their team is never going to sign a top of the market (6-7 year contract) for a FA pitcher unless they are absolutely delusional.The Twins Revenue position is just enough higher that it seems plausible so a few Twins fans pray that the team would not be so cheap and just go for it.So, you have to ask yourself why they don’t and why does the national media always assume this type of approach is outside the Twin's economic viability?Is there something they just don’t understand?Do they not understand this is the best path to success as you and a few others have advocated here or is it the fans that don’t understand the model MOST LIKELY to achieve sustained success?
If this were a consulting project, one of the first things I would look at in deciphering this sort of question is how does this specific company’s (team) practices compare to industry best practices.In this case, other teams have not utilized the practice you propose, at least not by a reasonably objective standard.There are really only two deals in the last decade that anyone can come up with as comparable.As I stated these deals are not reasonably comparable given the revenue advantages of those two teams used as examples.Is the problem that all of those GMs over the course of all of those years just did not see that signing this specific type FA is key to success or is the fans that don’t understand that the probability of success is too low that they opted to utilize other approaches?
There is a ton of data available to make this decision. I would first look at the statistical models to determine the likelihood of regression at a given age.When looking at Darvish this means age 32 season through whatever age contract is proposed.Of course, we would also look at any other relevant data.For example, frequency of injury and recovery times at this age. Do you suppose the GMs, especially the newer GMs with an excellent business education and analytical support teams are looking at this in a more sophisticated fan?Are fans building these models or do you suppose they just want to get better as fast as possible?
How many SPs (what percentage) have performed relatively close to their prime at ages 35-37 which is the case with Darvish?Shields is a reasonable example because his contract runs through his age 36 season.There were participants here who insisted James Shield would be as anyone else on our staff over the remaining 3 years of his deal.Nolaco and an fWar of 1 the first year and -1.1 last year.Streamer project .2 for next year.Based on the assumption you like to use that the money would go unused, who cares right.The problem with that assumption is that we have 3 or 4 young players that money could be used to extend into their prime years.
I would love to see the calculation for Darvish’s estimated fWAR ages 35-37.I don’t know if Buxton would extend 3 years at $84M beyond whatever we would pay him over his arbitration years but I think that if calculated with all the relevant data available, extending Buxton s a much better risk.
The bottom line is that mold as you call it is consistent across the league for team’s of similar revenue.
Do you really think they are all wrong?If so, there is a multi million dollar/yr job waiting for anyone that can demonstrate to them there is a better approach.
Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 04 January 2018 - 07:15 AM.