Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Article: What Happens if the Twins Can't Sign Yu Darvish?

brian dozier joe mauer ervin santana eduardo escobar yu darvish
  • Please log in to reply
107 replies to this topic

#61 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 4,445 posts

Posted 29 December 2017 - 11:51 AM

Doesn't signing a pitcher to a longer deal help next year too?


Not nearly as likely.

Look at recent large contracts for pitchers in Cueto, Samardzija, Sanchez and Zimmerman. All had very significant drop offs in year 2 of the contract.

If 2019 is the target to truly contend rather than be competitive then it is far better to sign that pitcher next off season. In a blog 3 years ago when we could still use tables I listed several signings and how they aged through their 4 year contracts. Year 1 was so much better overall than years 2, 3 and 4.

#62 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,279 posts

Posted 29 December 2017 - 11:57 AM

Year one being better doesn't mean year two is bad. They won't be winning any bidding wars next year on Kershaw our other elite talents, the big spenders are under the tax threshold this year for a reason. They are also very unlikely to sign two really good pitchers in any one off season. Passing this year makes next year's work that much harder.
  • beckmt and Sconnie like this

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#63 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 4,445 posts

Posted 29 December 2017 - 12:11 PM

We disagree.

Next year’s work will be made much easier if passing means that they find someone from within that is cost controlled and approaching league average. All of a sudden instead of committing 16-20 million a year to a pitcher declining from league average, they have a very inexpensive pitcher on the other end of the career projection and much more money in the budget to spend on that pitcher next winter. Wouldn’t that make it easier?

If they believe in the young group that has just entered AAA, it might be a smart risk to bank on one of them stepping forward rather than give a 4 year contract to a second or third tier free agent.

The long term success of the Twins relies on them developing and acquiring cost controlled starting pitching.

#64 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,279 posts

Posted 29 December 2017 - 12:17 PM

Of course next year is easier if an internal candidate is good. I doubt anyone disagrees with that. That doesn't change if they sign a free agent or not.

And, they likely need two or three more pitchers next year, not one or two. If Santana regresses and no one really steps up, they might need four.
  • Sconnie likes this

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#65 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Minnesota Twins

  • Member
  • 3,688 posts

Posted 29 December 2017 - 12:36 PM

 

Of course next year is easier if an internal candidate is good. I doubt anyone disagrees with that. That doesn't change if they sign a free agent or not.

And, they likely need two or three more pitchers next year, not one or two. If Santana regresses and no one really steps up, they might need four.

 

I like Santana a lot, but I think this is finally the year he starts to show his age. The Twins have to think about the future.

  • Danchat and Sconnie like this

Twins Manifesto: Build for .500, hope for more.


#66 USAFChief

USAFChief

    Bad puns. That's how eye roll.

  • Moderator
  • 25,066 posts
  • LocationTucson

Posted 29 December 2017 - 01:05 PM

2019 also means the possibility of replacing both Mauer and Dozier.

If they’re ignoring 2018 in favor of 2019, I’m even less impressed with new leadership. This team is ready now, holes don’t get cheaper to fill, and new holes pop up all the time.

Get on with it already.
  • Mike Sixel, Twins33, Danchat and 3 others like this

Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#67 caninatl04

caninatl04

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 737 posts

Posted 31 December 2017 - 04:24 PM

Doesn't signing a pitcher to a longer deal help next year too?

Of course it would. I’m guessing that perhaps the FO wants to see what they have currently first. Are there 5 starters among the current ML, AAA and AA squads? If the team is competitive and needs a starter, I could see a mid- season trade.
I guess I’m just suspicious of the Pohlads and whether there is money to sign a front line starter for 2018.
  • terrydactyls1947 likes this

#68 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,279 posts

Posted 31 December 2017 - 05:34 PM

Of course it would. I’m guessing that perhaps the FO wants to see what they have currently first. Are there 5 starters among the current ML, AAA and AA squads? If the team is competitive and needs a starter, I could see a mid- season trade.
I guess I’m just suspicious of the Pohlads and whether there is money to sign a front line starter for 2018.


You think there are seven or eight starters in the system right now? We strongly disagree on that.
  • Sconnie likes this

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#69 old nurse

old nurse

    Member

  • Member
  • 3,788 posts

Posted 31 December 2017 - 07:28 PM

 

You think there are seven or eight starters in the system right now? We strongly disagree on that.

Santana, Berrios, Gibson Mejia, May, Hughes, Slegers, Jorge, Gonsalves, Romero, Little and Stewart or Ensmake 12. The first 4 the team should have a pretty good idea of what they can do, good or bad. 2 are medical mysteries, Slegers is your AAAA emergency pitcher, The next 4 is the development squad that the OP would appear to be targeting as see what you have. Stewart or Ens makes it a Baker"s dozen.If you believe that Santana will age decline, Gibson will revert to bad Kyle and Mejia is a fringe starter, the poster has a point to wait and see if you are in contention. Given the postings about Santana and Gibson, the wait and see approach is as good as any. The position is more tenableconsidering the negativity towardsany FA not named Darvish

  • jorgenswest, howieramone2 and caninatl04 like this

#70 Sconnie

Sconnie

    Touch ‘em all!

  • Moderator
  • 4,925 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 31 December 2017 - 07:34 PM

Santana, Berrios, Gibson Mejia, May, Hughes, Slegers, Jorge, Gonsalves, Romero, Little and Stewart or Ens make 12. The first 4 the team should have a pretty good idea of what they can do, good or bad. 2 are medical mysteries, Slegers is your AAAA emergency pitcher, The next 4 is the development squad that the OP would appear to be targeting as see what you have. Stewart or Ens makes it a Baker"s dozen. If you believe that Santana will age decline, Gibson will revert to bad Kyle and Mejia is a fringe starter, the poster has a point to wait and see if you are in contention. Given the postings about Santana and Gibson, the wait and see approach is as good as any. The position is more tenable considering the negativity towards any FA not named Darvish

May and Hughes are starting the season on the DL. Can’t bank on Mejia, Gibson and Slegers to be consistent and healthy for 35 starts.

This team needs two pitchers from outside the organization that are mid rotation types or better to think they have any real intention of competing in the playoffs in 2018.

Edited by Sconnie, 31 December 2017 - 07:35 PM.

  • Mike Sixel, Twins33 and Hosken Bombo Disco like this

#71 old nurse

old nurse

    Member

  • Member
  • 3,788 posts

Posted 31 December 2017 - 07:58 PM

 

May and Hughes are starting the season on the DL. Can’t bank on Mejia, Gibson and Slegers to be consistent and healthy for 35 starts.

This team needs two pitchers from outside the organization that are mid rotation types or better to think they have any real intention of competing in the playoffs in 2018.

When one reads the comments made by people on pitchers not named Darvish (who is neither 2 pitchers nor has pitched every fifth game for a whole season in a while) one could easily think that the team would be better off without someone else's reject.

  • caninatl04 likes this

#72 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,279 posts

Posted 31 December 2017 - 08:00 PM

When one reads the comments made by people on pitchers not named Darvish (who is neither 2 pitchers nor has pitched every fifth game for a whole season in a while) one could easily think that the team would be better off without someone else's reject.


I don't believe signing free agents or making trades is acquiring a reject. I bet plenty of teams are happy they have players other teams "didn't want".
  • Sconnie likes this

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#73 Sconnie

Sconnie

    Touch ‘em all!

  • Moderator
  • 4,925 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 31 December 2017 - 08:39 PM

When one reads the comments made by people on pitchers not named Darvish (who is neither 2 pitchers nor has pitched every fifth game for a whole season in a while) one could easily think that the team would be better off without someone else's reject.

i don’t think Archer, or Cobb, or Lynn or Darvish are individually a Panacea. One of them will help but not solve.

Personally I’d like a trade for James Paxton (maybe Gordon and Enns plus) and sign Cobb. That would take this rotation and as a biproduct the bullpen, miles ahead. With his injury history, Paxton might be had relatively inexpensively.

I’m of a firm belief that this team needs two starters and they can’t be acquired using the same means. Can’t both be free agents. Can’t both be trades.

Edited by Sconnie, 31 December 2017 - 08:39 PM.

  • caninatl04 likes this

#74 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Minnesota Twins

  • Moderator
  • 11,250 posts

Posted 31 December 2017 - 08:52 PM

At this point I would prefer 4 years of a Cobb contract to Darvish. Years 5 and 6 of a Darvish contract scare me, those will be the first years of a possible Berrios and Buxton extension. A trade would be better still and the Twins have the minor league pieces for one.

#75 Rosterman

Rosterman

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 3,359 posts

Posted 31 December 2017 - 09:08 PM

The Twins need to make a splash. But in the local sports scene, anything they do will be lost right now with the Vikings success and the Super Bowl mess taking up the sports time between now and spring training.

 

Maybe the Twins will make a trade. A pretty big one.

 

Or maybe they just sign a marginal rotation arm, hope everyone comes back strong, and pull off a Verlander-like acquisition mid-season (hey, they could always go after Grienke).

 

I'm sure the front office is trying to figure out longterm (a team, perhaps, without Mauer and Dozier in the future).

 

Will be an interesting TwinsFest, and WCCO air time!

Joel Thingvall
www.joelthingvall.com
rosterman at www.twinscards.com


#76 jtkoupal

jtkoupal

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 378 posts

Posted 31 December 2017 - 10:08 PM

If Darvish cannot be obtained, which is highly likely, then I do not believe that stooping to Cobb or Lynn is the correct approach. On the surface, it sounds logical, why not add quality starting pitching for a more reasonable price than the big fish on the market? Well here's why: Cobb and Lynn are undoubtedly going to be overpaid by somebody this year. It's inevitable. Despite Lynn's good ERA of 3.43, his FIP was an almost-disasterous 4.82! Clearly, Lynn was the beneficiary of a lot of good luck, as his .244 BABIP would suggest. That contract has the potential to be a disaster for whoever decides to fork up the money. As for Cobb, the 2.91 K/BB is a concern, though his strikeout numbers are fairly low at just over 6 K/9, he averages more than 2 BB/9. Not disastrous, but the lack of strikeouts is undesirable. His 4.16 FIP shows the possibility for regression, though the risk is far lower than Lynn. Cobb has been considered a "almost perfectly league-average pitcher," which is not an insult. However, because it is so much easier to find below average pitching than above, it is likely that his price tag will still be much too high in relation to the value he would actually add to the team. To that end, Fangraphs, if you look into their numbers, predict the performances of Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia to be comparable to that of Lynn and Cobb. Yes, believe it or not, it is quite possible that the Twins could comparable production from those two unlikely sources for the cost of their contracts (Estimated value of $5.3M for Gibson after arbitration and league minimum $535K for Mejia) less than $6M, for similar production as opposed to, perhaps, upwards of $15M per year.

 

Jake Arrieta would be a more impactful investment, but I met Kevin Slowey a couple of months ago and he said that he doesn't think that Arrieta would consider the Twins, given that he is a Boras client. He said that Darvish is more likely.

 

Best bet, in my opinion: 

Plan A: Try to land Darvish or Arrieta

Plan B: Try to find a taker for Miguel Sano (if anyone wants him amid the reports) and get a starting pitcher in return.

Plan C: Ride it out with the kids we have coming up. As I said, the value for Gibson and Mejia may not end up being significantly different than that of Cobb or Lynn, so save the money, and roll with Berrios, Santana, Gibson, Mejia, and whoever wins the #5 job (Hughes may be the frontrunner if healthy)

  • jorgenswest likes this

#77 old nurse

old nurse

    Member

  • Member
  • 3,788 posts

Posted 01 January 2018 - 06:37 AM

 

i don’t think Archer, or Cobb, or Lynn or Darvish are individually a Panacea. One of them will help but not solve.

Personally I’d like a trade for James Paxton (maybe Gordon and Enns plus) and sign Cobb. That would take this rotation and as a biproduct the bullpen, miles ahead. With his injury history, Paxton might be had relatively inexpensively.

I’m of a firm belief that this team needs two starters and they can’t be acquired using the same means. Can’t both be free agents. Can’t both be trades.

So the Twins can get a top starter with multiple years of control left from a team that looks to contendfor little of nothing.. Last week's holiday, or the holiday 4 months from now?


#78 old nurse

old nurse

    Member

  • Member
  • 3,788 posts

Posted 01 January 2018 - 07:03 AM

 

 

I don't believe signing free agents or making trades is acquiring a reject. I bet plenty of teams are happy they have players other teams "didn't want".

Did I say anything aboutmaking trades?  Adding words and meanings to someone's arguments.I am sure that every teamwould love to give up a top half rotation starter for Nick Gordon and a bevy of low ranked prospects

 


#79 Sconnie

Sconnie

    Touch ‘em all!

  • Moderator
  • 4,925 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 01 January 2018 - 07:13 AM

So the Twins can get a top starter with multiple years of control left from a team that looks to contend for little of nothing.. Last week's holiday, or the holiday 4 months from now?

theres still 5 weeks until pitchers and catchers report. It’s a tall order, but not impossible

#80 rdehring

rdehring

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Member
  • 1,415 posts

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:38 AM

 

Santana, Berrios, Gibson Mejia, May, Hughes, Slegers, Jorge, Gonsalves, Romero, Little and Stewart or Ensmake 12. The first 4 the team should have a pretty good idea of what they can do, good or bad. 2 are medical mysteries, Slegers is your AAAA emergency pitcher, The next 4 is the development squad that the OP would appear to be targeting as see what you have. Stewart or Ens makes it a Baker"s dozen.If you believe that Santana will age decline, Gibson will revert to bad Kyle and Mejia is a fringe starter, the poster has a point to wait and see if you are in contention. Given the postings about Santana and Gibson, the wait and see approach is as good as any. The position is more tenableconsidering the negativity towardsany FA not named Darvish

And you may have missed the best prospect of the entire group, Lewis Thorpe, although he probably won't make it to the Twin Cities until sometime in 2019.




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: brian dozier, joe mauer, ervin santana, eduardo escobar, yu darvish