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Article: What Happens if the Twins Can't Sign Yu Darvish?

brian dozier joe mauer ervin santana eduardo escobar yu darvish
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#21 Monkeypaws

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 06:22 PM

 

Sano, Buxton, Kepler,and Rosario are under team Control through 2021, with Berrios and Polanco under team control through 2022. All six of those guys are still very young and progressing up the learning curve, which in my mind gives the Twins a 3-year window of opportunity of 2019 - 2021. You've also got Romero, Gonsalves, and Gordon in the minors that could meaningfully contribute during that window.

The Twins could and should extend a number of those players soon. The window can grow.

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#22 h2oface

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 06:47 PM

 

If the Twins cannot sign Darvish, I would ignore the next level (Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn) as all three would mean losing a second round draft pick. 

 

A pick like a Kohl Stewart, or Levi Michael, or Alex Wimmer, or Tyler Jay, or Klye Cody! (some were even first rounders!) Such important picks. I think the draft pick is the least of the concerns in regard to getting a good MLB pitcher that is desperately needed. Much less risk in a MLB proven pitcher than hoping that some pick will ever make it.

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#23 S.

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 06:48 PM

 

I think if you connect dots the Twins include Sano in a trade for Archer, then sign Napoli to replace power lost, let Escobar handle 3B or sign one. .....

Why would the Twins do this? If we were going to trade Sano (which i'm quite certain we aren't), I'm pretty sure we'd be putting together a package to get someone better than Archer. You really want to trade Sano for a 28 year old pitcher who has put up a 4 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and was worth 3 WAR combined over the last two years?


#24 rdehring

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 07:02 PM

I don't understand people talking about a rebuild.Five of our eight every day starters are young, very young.The core of a team is in place for a long time.Yes, we need to add some parts around it, but starting a rebuild just doesn't make sense.

Edited by rdehring, 27 December 2017 - 07:03 PM.

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#25 jorgenswest

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 07:25 PM

Well, Cobb and Lynn have histories of ERAs over-performing their FIPs, while Gibson has done the reverse. And of course in each of 2013 and 2014, Cobb and Lynn matched or bettered Gibson's career best season, so ignoring those years skews your sample.
(And while "last 3" seems a logical recent sample, it is unfair to Cobb who missed virtually all of 2015 and 2016. It is basically a one season sample for him -- not clear whether the higher FIP than his career rate is really a trend or just a blip. It is certainly not a trend supported by 3 seasons worth of data yet.)

2013-2014 is a long time ago to try to project a pitcher’s 2018-2021. I wonder how much weight the Twins should give those seasons. It isn’t about fairness to Cobb. His significant injury shouldn’t be a positive in projecting forward. You really only have his 2017 that is useful.

As for Lynn, entering 2017 his FIP and ERA were essentially identical over his career previous to the injury. His xFIP was greater than his ERA but not significantly greater. It was 2017 data that caused the imbalance. Since it was 2017, an organization has to at least wonder whether his skill level post injury is closer to his ERA or peripherals. Teams going beyond 4/50 are really gambling that ERA is the better projector for the future. That isn’t usually the case.

Edited by jorgenswest, 27 December 2017 - 07:25 PM.


#26 h2oface

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 07:29 PM

 

As for Lynn, entering 2017 his FIP and ERA were essentially identical over his career previous to the injury. His xFIP was greater than his ERA but not significantly greater. It was 2017 data that caused the imbalance. Since it was 2017, an organization has to at least wonder whether his skill level post injury is closer to his ERA or peripherals. Teams going beyond 4/50 are really gambling that ERA is the better projector for the future. That isn’t usually the case.

 

There is a reason the Cardinals are making no effort to resign Lynn, and I can't believe it is just $. I trust they know best.

Edited by h2oface, 27 December 2017 - 07:30 PM.

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#27 DocBauer

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 07:34 PM

Nooooo to trading Sano or any kind of rebuild. The core is in place, position player wise, and a few pitchers have as well, with more on the way. It's time to add and augment.

I get not trading prospects just now. Think mid season...barring ugly surprises...how much closer some of those guys will be to contributing or how much morw attractive they may be as trade pieces?

This us the perfect time and opportunity for the Twins to afford Dervish, if possible, or "settle" for a quality step down if necessary.
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"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

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#28 Baseball Bat

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 07:57 PM

I'll tell you what happens. I gain 50 lbs. and then get fired for "poor performance" at my job. Then my girlfriend leaves me for Randy in Cottage Grove.

 

EVERYTHING RIDES ON YU SIGNING WITH THE TWINS 

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#29 spycake

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 08:02 PM

It isn’t about fairness to Cobb. His significant injury shouldn’t be a positive in projecting forward. You really only have his 2017 that is useful.


Well, it's not as useful as a 3 year sample, which is what you claimed to be presenting.

Not that either Cobb or Lynn is perfect, and I'd want to see how the market plays out before I'd make an aggressive offer for either. Frankly I may take a pass on both.

#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 08:57 PM

There is a reason the Cardinals are making no effort to resign Lynn, and I can't believe it is just $. I trust they know best.


By that logic, do you ever sign a free agent?
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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#31 darin617

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 09:08 PM

Not sure Yu Darvish is the answer to the Twins future. He has never thrown over 200 innings since 2013. And over 2127 innings in his professional career.

 

 

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#32 ashburyjohn

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 09:35 PM

Also, rumor has it Darvish was tipping his pitches in the world series that the Astros picked up on.

He probably wishes he had tipped his catcher onto this, since he wasn't hitting his spots with his breaking pitches.

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A slim chance equals a fat chance, yet a wise man and a wise guy are opposites.


#33 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 09:59 PM

If we can't sign Darvish, we've all heard a lot about what it would take to get Archer.  I'm curious what the asking price would be for Cole and McCutchen.  Would the price be less than Archer?  How much less?  How much should we be willing to give up for 1 year of McCutchen and 2 years of Cole?

 

I'll throw out an idea and you can all rip me to shreds!

 

Max Kepler, Wander Javier, Tyler Jay, and Kohl Stewart for McCutchen and Cole

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#34 Vanimal46

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 10:04 PM

He probably wishes he had tipped his catcher onto this, since he wasn't hitting his spots with his breaking pitches.


That too. But him tipping his pitches was a real thing. It's easier to hit a breaking pitch that missed the spot when you know it's coming...

https://www.google.c...-video.amp.html

https://deadspin.com...seri-1821216289
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#35 kellyvance

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 10:47 PM

 

If the Twins cannot sign Darvish, I would ignore the next level (Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn) as all three would mean losing a second round draft pick. 

 

I'd set my sights on Jason Vargas. A lefty, with the Royals last year, he won 18 games, even though his ERA was above 4.00.  The Royals paid him $32 m over 4 years; entering his age 35 season, we could get him maybe for three years for $18 m?

 

Not as big a splash as landing Darvish, but it would help. The Twins should want a top pitcher like Darvish, but if they cannot land him, they should keep looking. There are other good fish in the MLB sea.

I like Vargas too. If they can get a guy who still has some ceiling I don't mind getting guys that are still growing into their games. 


#36 h2oface

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 10:54 PM

 

By that logic, do you ever sign a free agent?

 

Sure. Case by case. Lynn is pretty affordable, just a relatively long commitment. In this case, the Cards would rather take their chances on the cheap up and comers, than Lynn, who they know the best of any team and FO. Sometimes the player just doesn't want to play for the team anymore, and/or they want to play for the highest dollar, regardless of the team. Like Torii Hunter, perhaps. Sometimes, you just let a Plouffe or a Pelfrey go........ for good reason. My gut says that is the case with Lynn.

 

And then there are the mistakes.... like David Ortiz.:banghead:

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#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 28 December 2017 - 12:02 AM

Not sure Yu Darvish is the answer to the Twins future. He has never thrown over 200 innings since 2013. And over 2127 innings in his professional career.


Almost no one throws that many anymore
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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#38 darin617

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Posted 28 December 2017 - 12:42 AM

 

Almost no one throws that many anymore

 

That is why you don't give Darvish ace money.To be honest I don't think I would would want any of the top 4 free agent pitchers for more than 2 seasons. Which none would ever sign for.


#39 DaveW

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Posted 28 December 2017 - 01:02 AM

If we can't sign Darvish, we've all heard a lot about what it would take to get Archer. I'm curious what the asking price would be for Cole and McCutchen. Would the price be less than Archer? How much less? How much should we be willing to give up for 1 year of McCutchen and 2 years of Cole?

I'll throw out an idea and you can all rip me to shreds!

Max Kepler, Wander Javier, Tyler Jay, and Kohl Stewart for McCutchen and Cole


Why would the pirates go for that deal at all?

Kepler looks to be a solid young corner OF, but isn’t exactly an all star or even a guy teams can pencil in every day due to struggles against LHP ....to be clear, I think Kepler eventually reaches his peak and becomes a borderline all star player during his prime, but any other team is gonna view him on his results, floor etc as well.

Jay, Stewart, Javier aren’t ‘bad’ prospects, but none of them are very great either.

Let’s put it this way, if the Twins were to trade a Cole and McCutchen and we got that package back, we would be pretty damn pissed I imagine.
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<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR

#40 nicksaviking

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Posted 28 December 2017 - 07:36 AM

 

Not sure Yu Darvish is the answer to the Twins future. He has never thrown over 200 innings since 2013. And over 2127 innings in his professional career.

 

All I'm concerned about is him being capable of pitching game 163 and beyond. How would Cobb or Lynn even contribute in a one game playoff? They probably don't start over Berrios or Santana.

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