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Article: Twins Select RHP Tyler Kinley In Rule 5 Draft (Lose Burdi to Phillies, Bard to Angels)

nick burdi jake reed luke bard kohl stewart ryan eades
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#121 twins_89

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 12:46 PM

 

If he doesn't outright earn a spot out of spring training he'll get returned.  

 

Assuming they sign and/or trade for a couple of front end starters there is zero chance they try and 'stash" him on the roster.

 

I'm not too concerned about them trying to stash him, I think the chances he's still here on opening day are minimal. The issue I have is that Minnesota had 4 open roster spots and now 2 of them have been used on players unlikely to help this season (Kinley and Pineda). With one open roster spot left, the Twins still need a starter and could also use a backup catcher, reliever, and bench bat. Clearly there are guys who can be removed from the 40 man roster, but is Kinley better than Boshers or Enns?

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#122 birdwatcher

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 12:50 PM

 

If they have such little faith in him making the team the decision not to protect Burdi or Bard looks even worse.

 

Rather than attributing success for moves unmade maybe it's you who should hold your comment and allow the rest to remark about what has actually been done to this point. 

 

 

Burdi was selected #3. Kinley was, I think, the 13th of 15 prospects selected (many teams passed, some on more than half the selected prospects). While it's not unreasonable to think the Twins should have protected Burdi (I think they should have), it's also not unreasonable to think their selection of Kinley is a worthwhile experiment. First of all, nothing says Molitor and Falvey have to make to same mistake with Kinley that many of us think they made with Haley. Maybe they learned from that experience. They'll probably have a shorter leash with Kinley anyway, for the simple reason that they have more and better candidates in 2018 than they did going into spring training in 2017. Secondly, we don't know what we're talking about when we draw conclusions about a guy like Kinley based on a few minor league stats. It may end up meaning nothing, but Fred Guerrero's reports from the Dominican Winter League might also hint at some positive development that give the organization reason to think Kinley is capable of more.

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#123 ashbury

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 12:58 PM

You’re assuming Kinley will make the team without proving he deserves it. You should hold your comment until then.


If they have such little faith in him making the team the decision not to protect Burdi or Bard looks even worse.
 
Rather than attributing success for moves unmade maybe it's you who should hold your comment and allow the rest to remark about what has actually been done to this point.

 
Mod note: This seems about to turn the corner to saying who may and may not post, which leads to bickering, and without assessing blame I ask that it stop.

It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into. -- Jonathan Swift


#124 rdehring

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 01:04 PM

I don't know what to think of this year's Rule 5 moves.If I were pretty sure Burdi would be gone and was looking at the player they selected, I would have added Burdi to the 40-man and not taken anyone in the draft.But I don't know what the Twins know, about both Burdi and Kinley.  

 

What puzzles me more was their moves from a year ago.If they were so high on Haley, why didn't they take him with the #1 pick.Never did understand the logic to take the guy they did, then do the trade with the Angels to get Haley.Would have made sense if the Angels really wanted the #1 pick and sweetened the pot with another prospect.Still can't figure out the logic for that one.

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#125 KirbyDome89

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 01:50 PM

 

Burdi was selected #3. Kinley was, I think, the 13th of 15 prospects selected (many teams passed, some on more than half the selected prospects). While it's not unreasonable to think the Twins should have protected Burdi (I think they should have), it's also not unreasonable to think their selection of Kinley is a worthwhile experiment. First of all, nothing says Molitor and Falvey have to make to same mistake with Kinley that many of us think they made with Haley. Maybe they learned from that experience. They'll probably have a shorter leash with Kinley anyway, for the simple reason that they have more and better candidates in 2018 than they did going into spring training in 2017. Secondly, we don't know what we're talking about when we draw conclusions about a guy like Kinley based on a few minor league stats. It may end up meaning nothing, but Fred Guerrero's reports from the Dominican Winter League might also hint at some positive development that give the organization reason to think Kinley is capable of more.

They're both flawed players. IMO if they're taking a chance on either I would much rather have Burdi and his injury history vs. a guy who has very little if any success above A+in 5 minor league seasons. I hope they do have a much shorter leash with Kinley than they did with Haley but that also makes the decision more confusing. If the experiment lasts no longer than March then they almost certainly would've been better off using that roster spot on Burdi, and if they were still as down on him as they are now they easily could've tried to sneak him through waivers and no matter the outcome they would've been no worse off than they are at this moment. 

 

I don't understand how 5 years of minor league stats isn't enough to formulate an opinion on Kinley but 2 months in the Dominican Winter League might be. 

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#126 nicksaviking

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 02:13 PM

 

Yeah I think the FO miscalculated on the Rule V draft.I think they might have outsmarted themselves.Given what happened last year they haven't built my trust in handling the Rule V draft. 

 

 

I actually think the front office miscalculated the pace of free agency. There doesn't seem to be much reason to leave four open 40-man spots unless they intended to start signing free agents or making trades prior to the draft.

 

Ohtani slowed down all the big ticket free agents and the relievers nearly all waited until the winter meetings to start moving. I'd also guess that there would be a better chance of exposing players to the Rule V and keeping them than adding them to the 40-man and being forced to remove them later exposing them to waivers.

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#127 Dman

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 03:50 PM

 

 I'd also guess that there would be a better chance of exposing players to the Rule V and keeping them than adding them to the 40-man and being forced to remove them later exposing them to waivers.

 

I was fine with them leaving Burdi and Bard off if they were going to sign free agents that were going to help the team get to the next level but Signing a pitcher that can't help this year and then grabbing a guy in the rule V that might not even make the team leaves a bad taste in my mouth.They had to think Bard would slip through or that they just had too much redundancy in relief options to care because I just can't wrap my brain around the decision.

 

I realize I don't know a tenth of what they know about various players but clogging two of the four spots disappoints me. It makes me think they are going in to this season trusting the young guys in the system and quite frankly that scares me a little bit.I thought the plan was 4 strong veteran adds so what ultimately happened threw me for a loop.

Edited by Dman, 15 December 2017 - 03:51 PM.


#128 birdwatcher

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 04:43 PM

 

 

 

I don't understand how 5 years of minor league stats isn't enough to formulate an opinion on Kinley but 2 months in the Dominican Winter League might be. 

 

Because the one looking just at a few stats is you, and the people looking at the player are long-standing, proven professional scouts who are also armed with a lot more data points than you?

 

Brad Steil was interviewed and mentioned that they have "depth" on Kinley, having seen him often over the course of those five years. He acknowledged Fred Guerrero's observations, but kind of downplayed that in favor of just generally saying their people see some good things.

 

I'd agree with you on the surface though, that Burdi looks to have the better chance, but let's not pretend that the decision involved a straight swap of the two.

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#129 Deduno Abides

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 11:24 PM

Mod note: This seems about to turn the corner to saying who may and may not post, which leads to bickering, and without assessing blame I ask that it stop.


Agreed. I just meant that time will tell, but we can’t know now whether he’ll be a failure. My post was worded incorrectly. KDome may be proven right.

Edited by Deduno Abides, 15 December 2017 - 11:25 PM.

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#130 Deduno Abides

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 11:34 PM

Because the one looking just at a few stats is you, and the people looking at the player are long-standing, proven professional scouts who are also armed with a lot more data points than you?
 
Brad Steil was interviewed and mentioned that they have "depth" on Kinley, having seen him often over the course of those five years. He acknowledged Fred Guerrero's observations, but kind of downplayed that in favor of just generally saying their people see some good things.
 
I'd agree with you on the surface though, that Burdi looks to have the better chance, but let's not pretend that the decision involved a straight swap of the two.


The other issue is that the Twins may think they have seen something in Kinley or now have a better pitcher development program than Florida. Falvey and Levine could also be trying to figure out their type and may think Kinley is a good experiment. I don’t miss Burdi, because he probably wouldn’t help this year, but Bard was probably, on 2017 stats, much closer to the majors, but even if he proves to be much better than Kinley, it’s unlikely he’ll be more than a 0.5 WAR pitcher, so it won’t be a huge difference. Even if Kinley fails, Falvey and the pitcher development program may learn something that helps in the future.
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#131 KirbyDome89

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 11:43 PM

 

Because the one looking just at a few stats is you, and the people looking at the player are long-standing, proven professional scouts who are also armed with a lot more data points than you?

 

Brad Steil was interviewed and mentioned that they have "depth" on Kinley, having seen him often over the course of those five years. He acknowledged Fred Guerrero's observations, but kind of downplayed that in favor of just generally saying their people see some good things.

 

I'd agree with you on the surface though, that Burdi looks to have the better chance, but let's not pretend that the decision involved a straight swap of the two.

If we're defaulting to authority then we can never question any decision this team makes...

 

You're right, it also involved Bard, another pitcher with a more successful track record than Kinley. 


#132 thegambler

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 07:03 AM

I don't understand the logic here. We go from losing two promising relievers that we could have put on the 40 man roster, to picking up a guy that we HAVE to put on the 25 man roster. Where is the logic in that?
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#133 ashbury

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:31 AM

8:37 Update: The Twins select RH Yancarlos Baez from the Yankees roster in the AAA Rule 5. Baez was signed by the Yankees as a shortstop, but in 2017, he transitioned to pitching in the GCL. Interesting gamble.

8:43 Update: The Twins selected Sandy Lugo, a 22-year-old RHP from the Dominican, and from the Reds organization. In 2017, he split the year before Low-A Dayton (2 games) and High-A Daytona (4-6, 5.32 ERA in 42 relief games). In 64 innings, he had 40 walks but he struck out 82.

I didn't see any further discussion of these picks. Probably not worth starting a whole new thread for them.

 

Baez is at least worth my time to keep tabs on, just as a novelty. I wouldn't call him a "gamble", more just a $12,000 "flyer" (quibble quibble), and the Twins will likely need to put him on an accelerated development pace going into his age-21 season, given that he's eligible to be drafted away from us the same way next year. An infielder who couldn't hit, he's giving it a try on the mound. He struck out few, and the only scouting report I found with a few moments of searching indicates an 87-MPH heater when he was first signed as a 17-year old. As I understand it, the AAA phase of the draft doesn't put any requirement on where the draftee actually plays, which is good since he's surely not prepared to face AAA batters yet. I would try him at Cedar Rapids and then bump him up to Ft Myers mid-season if he shows any promise.

 

Lugo would seem to throw smoke if his K/9 numbers are to be believed, but the scouting report I found on him shows only a 91-94 fastball and he probably gets his Ks via the curveball. Until 2017 he had mediocre-to-decent control, but this year he fell - both "apart" in the control department, and apparently "out of Cincinnati's plans" at least as far a protecting him from the draft goes. He's already 23 and didn't succeed at high-A, meaning he's close to knocking around the independent leagues for a few years IMO if he can't harness his stuff real soon, but apparently the Twins see something they think they can work with.

 

Maybe I'll take these as Adopt-A-Prospect guys next year, if no one else does. I've already done half the work I do for those, anyway. :)

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#134 spycake

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:25 AM

FWIW, as a 2013 college draftee, it appears Kinley was eligible for Rule 5 last winter but was not selected.

Of course, Luke Bard had been eligible twice previously. (Burdi was a first time eligible this winter)

#135 birdwatcher

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:25 AM

 

If we're defaulting to authority then we can never question any decision this team makes...

 

You're right, it also involved Bard, another pitcher with a more successful track record than Kinley. 

 

 

Questioning is one thing. Like you, I hate losing both those guys and question the decision.

 

Concluding that it's a bad decision, like you have? Are you not "defaulting" to your own authority?

 

Let's let it play out. It'll be interesting.

 


#136 beckmt

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 03:50 PM

Burdi did not figure into the Twins plans for next year and the first year back from TJ surgery can be dicey.May get him back, though am much more worried now that he is with the Pirates.

Bard I was not happy with as I thought he might have a chance to help this year.  

We will see.


#137 KirbyDome89

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 05:38 PM

 

Questioning is one thing. Like you, I hate losing both those guys and question the decision.

 

Concluding that it's a bad decision, like you have? Are you not "defaulting" to your own authority?

 

Let's let it play out. It'll be interesting.

There's a difference between holding an opinion based on available data, and trying to invalidate an opinion because the person holding it doesn't belong to a particular group. 

 

Hopefully it plays out in a way that doesn't hurt the Twins. 


#138 kab21

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 05:55 PM

 

It has everything to do with the Rule V draft. Those players selected have to stay on the 25 man roster. The draft IS roster management. 

 

You read my post that said the Rule V draft could be used effectively right? Clogging the 25th spot with a pitcher who has limited minor league success and no options is hardly practical. 

Everything you said here has to do with roster management. Keeping him on the 25 man roster and not returning him because he isn't what they thought he might be is exactly what I am talking about as a roster management problem.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#139 KirbyDome89

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 07:32 PM

 

Everything you said here has to do with roster management. Keeping him on the 25 man roster and not returning him because he isn't what they thought he might be is exactly what I am talking about as a roster management problem.

Roster management that is necessitated by participation in the Rule 5. The two aren't mutually exclusive.


#140 mlhouse

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 07:55 PM

1.I think they should have given Luke Bard innings last year at the big league level.The guy just turned 27 so they should have pushed him up with at least a September callup to evaluate him at that level.Arm injuries have killed his career.  

 

2.Swapping Kinley for Bard is probably even.Two 27 year old guys getting a chance to get out of their current situations.If you were to play the odds, it is unlikely that either guy makes the big league organizations of their Rule V drafting team.I do think Bard is the better prospect but because of his injuries it is limited.  

 

3.I think the same is true with Nick Burdi and most likely he will be back in Minnesota.  

 

But here is the truth.I wish Burdi and Bard well.I hope they both become great MLB pitchers.I doubt they get the chance with the Twins organization so if I am glad other organizations will give them a chance.

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