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Article: Winter Meetings - Search For A Starter

gerrit cole chris archer zack granite tyler jay nick gordon
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#21 Steve Lein

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:14 AM

If that would be the actual cost for Cole, I'm doing that trade.

 

While a lot of people love Archer and his stuff, I'd honestly rather have Cole for what the price will be, and I've always thought of Archer as an enigma. To me he has the weirdest, non-competitive demeanor on the mound I've ever seen. Now, it's not like that has prevented him from striking a bunch of guys out and dominating at times, but something is just "off" there for me.

 

Also, Archer's career WAR vs. Cole's WAR is only 11.9 to 11.4 (bref), and Cole has pitched one less season. Archer put up 4.3 in 2015 and Cole 4.5 that same season. They both gave up a bunch of HR's last year, but before that Cole was very good at keeping the ball in the yard while Archer's been giving them up at that rate 2+ seasons.

 

What I'm saying is, I don't think Archer is far and away better than Cole to justify the price difference in a trade that it seems it's going to require.

 

My first choice is sign Yu Darvish, but trading for Cole would be my second option and I don't see why they couldn't do both if they really wanted. Trading for Archer is a distant option for me and I realize I may be the minority on that.

Edited by Steve Lein, 12 December 2017 - 09:36 AM.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)

#22 beckmt

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:26 AM

I would do the trade for Cole in a heartbeat, and then sign other starter (no worse than Lynn/Cobb with preferring Cobb.  

I am OK with the Archer - Longorilla trade including Sano.Sano is a Boras client and Twins chances of retaining him for more than 4 years are small.I would see if Sano is interested in a 6 year deal before I did this, but hope the Twins have already done their work.Sano + Gordon + Starter and Granite should be somewhere in the ballpark.


#23 amjgt

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:31 AM

If the rumored trade proposal is accurate then I would think the reason MN is hesitating is because internally they are very high on Jay.

You have to give some to get some so it's pretty obvious Gordon would be included. While I like Granite and think he's a valuable 4th OF for us this year, you don't hesitate to add to the front end of your pitching staff because of a 4th OF. So it has to be about Jay and the ceiling/floor our front office views for him.
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#24 Blackjack

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:35 AM

I'd prefer that the Twins keep their prospects, let the current core of Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc. get another year of experience, see if they are the real deal, see if Sano is going to ever be healthy. Use $ to sign a couple of mid-level pitchers, sort thru all the AAA starters, then next winter make a big trade. Or even at the trade deadline this summer, if the Twins are in contention. 

 

Keep the prospects, spend $ to improve, let the prospects get experience, THEN make a big trade splash to get over the hump.

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#25 Carole Keller

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:38 AM

 

Gordon is near-MLB ready and plays a premium position. Very agonizing to part with a guy like that!

But we have others down the pipe ... if Polanco can remain serviceable until then ... that's part of the risk. We have to give something good to get something good. Too many people package quantity over quality and that won't work. I like Gordon, too ... and would be very sorry to lose him ... and if Polanco would go into that trade instead, I'd do that ... but then we'd be left pushing Gordon ... could he be ready now? But I don't think teams who are trading away quality pitching want 'ready now' players, they want prospects so they can build again. It's all a crapshoot anyway ... so I say go for it*. But realistically, I don't think that rumored trade will be enough, but maybe. <shrug> I know nothing with this!

 

 

*(Disclaimer: that is not the same as 'going all in.' That I am not suggesting ... yet.)

“May we teach our children that speaking out without the fear of retribution is our culture’s new north star.” ~Laura Dern
 


#26 jimmer

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:39 AM

I like the trade but would like it a lot better for 3 years of control rather than just two.

yeah, only having him for 2 years is the big reason I would balk at this. If I was sure the team would extend him right away, that would change things, but dont see Cole doing that.

#27 Carole Keller

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:41 AM

 

 

My first choice is sign Yu Darvish, but trading for Cole would be my second option and I don't see why they couldn't do both if they really wanted. Trading for Archer is a distant option for me and I realize I may be the minority on that.

My first choice is both! (Yeah, I know ... humming 'The Impossible Dream' to myself now.)

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#28 MN_ExPat

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:42 AM

If that would be the actual cost for Cole, I'm doing that trade.
 
While a lot of people love Archer and his stuff, I'd honestly rather have Cole for what the price will be, and I've always thought of Archer as an enigma. To me he has the weirdest, non-competitive demeanor on the mound I've ever seen. Now, it's not like that has prevented him from striking a bunch of guys out and dominating at times, but something is just "off" there for me.
 
Also, Archer's career WAR vs. Cole's WAR is only 11.9 to 11.4 (bref), and Cole has pitched one less season. Archer put up 4.3 in 2015 and Cole 4.5 that same season. They both gave up a bunch of HR's last season, but before that Cole was very good at keeping the ball in the yard while Archer's been giving them up at that rate 2+ seasons.
 
What I'm saying is, I don't think Archer is far and away better than Cole to justify the price difference in a trade that it seems it's going to require.
 
My first choice is sign Yu Darvish, but trading for Cole would be my second option and I don't see why they couldn't do both if they really wanted. Trading for Archer is a distant option for me and I realize I may be the minority on that.

I think I have to agree with that one Steve. I've always felt Archer has great "stuff", but... he's been in the league long enough now that you would think he would/could be better than the stats he's put up. Something just doesn't add up when you compare ability with performance.
 
To me, IMHO, he's more of a thrower and less of a pitcher. Sure he gets a ton of K's, and that's sexy to a certain point but, K's (like homeruns) are boring and fascist. Now I'm not saying that they're not important, but they're not the be all end all / Alpha and Omega. Plus, the perceived price for Archer to me just seems like, well... even if he did do well for the Twins, I have a feeling in my gut that it would wind up being a Pyrrhic Victory for the FO.

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#29 beckmt

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:47 AM

Do not know his status or his agent, but Lewis should be here in 2019 or 2020 and Twins have many middle infield prospects.Would hate to lose Gordon and or Jay,but cannot see the message the Twins are satisfied with a wild card spot, will make it tough to land top flight talent in the future.Remember the White Sox see their window opening about 2020 and they are one of the top ranked farm systems (like the Twins were a couple of years ago).Let's not blow this.

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#30 amjgt

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:54 AM

Worth at least noting is that even if Cole pitches below his current level, the Twins would likely get a valuable comp pick when (if) he leaves in two years.

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#31 sthpstm

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:58 AM

If that's the starting request from Pittsburgh, that's not outrageous and maybe the Twins could tweak a bit.

I am waiting for the Danny Duffy rumor - 4 years at a reasonable price but not the bargain Cole or Archer are. I'm curious what the price would be for Duffy.


#32 dbminn

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:58 AM

 

While I like Granite and think he's a valuable 4th OF for us this year, you don't hesitate to add to the front end of your pitching staff because of a 4th OF. So it has to be about Jay and the ceiling/floor our front office views for him.

 

I wouldn't stop the trade because of Granite but I would try to offer a different prospect. Buxton will likely miss some time this season. The Twins don't have another CF who is even close on defense. That means spending more money on the FA market, which increases the cost of the trade. 


#33 wagwan

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:59 AM

What do you think the Yankees can offer Pittsburgh for Cole?


#34 amjgt

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:59 AM

 

What do you think the Yankees can offer Pittsburgh for Cole?

Stanton

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#35 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:05 AM

 

If that would be the actual cost for Cole, I'm doing that trade.

 

While a lot of people love Archer and his stuff, I'd honestly rather have Cole for what the price will be, and I've always thought of Archer as an enigma. To me he has the weirdest, non-competitive demeanor on the mound I've ever seen. Now, it's not like that has prevented him from striking a bunch of guys out and dominating at times, but something is just "off" there for me.

 

Also, Archer's career WAR vs. Cole's WAR is only 11.9 to 11.4 (bref), and Cole has pitched one less season. Archer put up 4.3 in 2015 and Cole 4.5 that same season. They both gave up a bunch of HR's last year, but before that Cole was very good at keeping the ball in the yard while Archer's been giving them up at that rate 2+ seasons.

 

What I'm saying is, I don't think Archer is far and away better than Cole to justify the price difference in a trade that it seems it's going to require.

 

My first choice is sign Yu Darvish, but trading for Cole would be my second option and I don't see why they couldn't do both if they really wanted. Trading for Archer is a distant option for me and I realize I may be the minority on that.

 

Archer has been through the ringer of the AL East and has still come away as one of the division's top starters. He also misses a boatload of bats.

 

Cole's consistency, injury history and lifetime in the NL makes me nervous.  

 

Plus the four years instead of two is huge. The fact that Archer is on such a small contract could also mean he'd be amenable to ripping up that contract and increasing his current base pay in exchange for adding on a couple of years, should the team want to extend him that is.

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#36 Vanimal46

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:11 AM

Archer has been through the ringer of the AL East and has still come away as one of the division's top starters. He also misses a boatload of bats.

Cole's consistency, injury history and lifetime in the NL makes me nervous.

Plus the four years instead of two is huge. The fact that Archer is on such a small contract could also mean he'd be amenable to ripping up that contract and increasing his current base pay in exchange for adding on a couple of years, should the team want to extend him that is.


What injury history does Cole have? No significant surgeries as far as I can see.

The Yankees don't appear to have any issues with his consistency and the fact he's in the NL....

#37 amjgt

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:14 AM

I would add a choice of Gonsalves/Romero to the rumored Cole package in order to get Archer instead.

Is actually an interesting either/or.

4 years of Archer
Or
2 years of Cole and 6 years of the prospect we lose.

Edited by amjgt, 12 December 2017 - 10:21 AM.

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#38 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:15 AM

 

What injury history does Cole have? No significant surgeries as far as I can see.

The Yankees don't appear to have any issues with his consistency and the fact he's in the NL....

 

I guess I can't recall what the injuries were so perhaps they were flukish, but he did miss about 1/3 of a season both in 2016 and 2014.


#39 Vanimal46

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:18 AM

I guess I can't recall what injuries they were so perhaps they were flukish, Bbut he did miss about 1/3 of a season both in 2016 and 2014.


Both flukes. Shoulder fatigue in 2014, no surgery. Elbow strain in 2016, and was shut down for the year because the Pirates were out of the playoff race.
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#40 gunnarthor

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:20 AM

I thought a trade for Cole would have to include Gordon and Romero/Gonsalves but I think Jay and Granite is a roughly equal to that. I like Gordon a lot (I think he's our #1 prospect) and Jay could be an absolute killer in the pen but his injury history is such that I think its ok to move on. But he could really come back to bite us.But Cole could be a nice piece in our rotation. I think the deal is fair - might be a bit too kind to Pitt and maybe they need to throw in a small piece back - but it's certainly a decent starting place for a negotiation.  

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