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Article: Reviewing Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospect Rankings

royce lewis jacob pearson david banuelos stephen gonsalves nick gordon
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#21 USDToreros42

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 09:44 AM

Still trying to figure out where Anthony McIver fits in to all this?? Has done well at every level and as either starter, mid-relief or closer. He is 25, but not a lot of wear-and-tear on his arm. Healthy! Your thoughts?

#22 gunnarthor

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 10:04 AM

 

Still trying to figure out where Anthony McIver fits in to all this?? Has done well at every level and as either starter, mid-relief or closer. He is 25, but not a lot of wear-and-tear on his arm. Healthy! Your thoughts?

Probably an org arm.


#23 IndianaTwin

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 10:40 AM

Of the 50, 12 are new to the organization since the last ranking (all of them in the top 40, by the way). Two questions:

  • How does 12 compare to other years? Is our perception that the new guys have brought more talent into the organization accurate?  
  • What's the status of the 12 from last year?

#24 Tom Froemming

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 11:11 AM

Not saying he should be any higher right now, but I think Ricky De La Torre could be the guy to make the biggest jump over the next year.

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#25 Seth Stohs

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 11:49 AM

 

Care to share any thoughts on Dietrich Enns?

 

LHP, came from the Yankees... could pitch for the Twins... wonder if he'll move to the bullpen?


#26 Seth Stohs

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 11:53 AM

We're all getting to know them, and we'll learn more about them the next two years. As I've mentioned, this is preliminary. Landon Leach is likely to move up this quite a bit. I do think he's got a chance to be more of a reliever (whereas most believe that Enlow will be a starter). So that's why I have him a little lower. But you make a good point. I've said elsewhere that I thought Pearson could be anywhere between 12 and 20, and Banuelos could be anywhere from 18-25 or so.

 

I'm legitimately curious if there is any sort of scouting information on Pearson (or Banuelos) that suggests that this take is significantly mistaken.It takes me a while to get to know knew additions and I probably often underrate them.But I feel like we got two guys who rank in the late 20's to mid 30's range in our system, not two top 20 guys.

 


#27 nytwinsfan

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 12:01 PM

*NOTE - Updated to include Severino, who was signed after I posted this, pushing Slegers down to 26.

 

Here are my top 25:

 

1. R. Lewis

2. N. Gordon

3. S. Gonsalves

4. F. Romero

5. B. Rooker

6. L. Thorpe

7. A. Kirilloff

8. A. Baddoo

9. W. Javier

10. B. Enlow

11. M. Garver

12. T. Jay

13. B. Graterol

14. Z. Littell

15. L. Wade

16. Y. Severino

17. Z. Granite

18. J. Curtiss

19. L. Diaz

20. J. Miranda

21. F. Jorge

22. J. Reed

23. N. Burdi

24. J. Pearson

25. D. Banuelos

26. A. Slegers

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#28 Seth Stohs

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 12:14 PM

 

Probably an org arm.

 

I think McIver can definitely be more than an org arm. He's got good stuff. He's left-handed. He's pitched in short relief, in long-relief, in spot starts. He has a chance... He's just a notch below Vasquez and Moran in my opinion... But I need to also reiterate. The difference between prospect 40 and prospect 85 is not huge. McIver has put himself by continuing to move up and now having success late in the year in AA. That means he's got a shot. 

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#29 Seth Stohs

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 12:15 PM

 

Not saying he should be any higher right now, but I think Ricky De La Torre could be the guy to make the biggest jump over the next year.

 

I definitely agree... He's legit!

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#30 Seth Stohs

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 12:21 PM

 

What about the salary question, Seth.Do you know what they typically pay players like Wilson?Are there limitations on what they could pay?

 

I would guess he'd get a deal where he'll make around $1 million in MLB and something like $250,000 while in the minors (pro-rated, of course)... 

 

I don't know about limitations.

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#31 nater79a

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 05:59 PM

 

I expect there is another Buxton/Sano/Berrios in this group (other than Royce Lewis), Seth, we just don't know who.

 

And I see this as a special group in part because 10% (5 players) have already made it to the majors.For 90% to not make it would mean that no other player from this list ever plays in the majors.  I would think it is more like 60%-70% won't make it...which makes this group special in my mind.

 

Personally, I would put Moya ahead of Burdi as there are to many questions related to Burdi's health versus Moya having already pitched for the Twins including some important innings

 

Yeah, 30-35% that "make it" to the major leagues sounds about right.But 10-15% of that are guys that stick and are contributors for multiple years.. Players like Dozier, Rosario, Gibson, etc... The rest are guys like Logan Darnell, Jason Wheeler, Pat Dean... technically they made it but then end up bouncing around the minor leagues or overseas.

 


#32 Thrylos

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 06:38 PM

I am still waiting for the smoke to clear before I start mine (just because of things that happened this week and will happen the next), but I see a really big omission here:Rainis Silva.The guy has always been the top defensive and game calling catcher in the system but could not hit his way out of a paper bag and was pushed to Cedar Rapids last season because of his game calling and D and got a .551 OPS.Back to EST and extensive work in his hitting and to Etown this season he hit .356/.446/.446.Something definitely clicked.I am doing my prospect lists a bit different (i.e. if someone has played in the majors, has graduated from my list - btw, you are missing Chargois as well ;))so Garver is out.Pending further research of Banuelos and transactions, Silva would be my highest rated C.Has been hovering between 20-30 or so in my lists for a while and definitely will shoot up at top 15-20 or so.

 

Kirriloff is way way way too high, but that has already been discussed.

Interestingly enough, I think that that guy who dropped the most in your list (Jay) will likely be the guy who did so in mine as well.

 

The one thing that is certain is that the Twins system is much better this year than last, despite not having many "flashy" prospects.I think that the top 20 or so will have a good chance of making it to the majors (and I mean from my list that does not include the ones who did,) which is more than most systems can claim. And Falvine are not done yet.I hope.

Edited by Thrylos, 08 December 2017 - 06:39 PM.

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#33 jsteve96

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 07:16 PM

 

I try not to get too exercised over the ordering on these rankings, but like others, I'm trying to get a feeling for the recent pickups, and I just don't see them being as good as indicated by these rankings.I'm not putting any weight on a short season performance, we see a lot of guys look completely different in their second year vs their debut.But from what I've gathered about Pearson and Banuelos they just don't seem like top 20 prospects in this system even though they were much more highly rated in other shallower systems.

 

My baseline for Pearson is Leach.Pearson was rated slightly above Leach on most pre-draft boards, but he ended up slipping to 85 (right around where Leach was rated).He signed overslot for around 63rd pick value.But Leach was picked at 37th and signed for about 49th value.I don't pretend to have special knowledge about either of these guys, but at the very least this tells me that they are in similar tiers, and that the Twins FO actually likes Leach a significant amount more.And I don't see anything in their debuts to indicate that they've significantly diverged yet.I'm sure you could find scouts that like Pearson better but I'm having trouble believing that you could find one who would say he's clearly a better prospect.

 

I'm legitimately curious if there is any sort of scouting information on Pearson (or Banuelos) that suggests that this take is significantly mistaken.It takes me a while to get to know knew additions and I probably often underrate them.But I feel like we got two guys who rank in the late 20's to mid 30's range in our system, not two top 20 guys.

This is true, good take.


#34 jsteve96

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 07:26 PM

 

The guy has always been the top defensive and game calling catcher in the system but could not hit his way out of a paper bag and was pushed to Cedar Rapids last season because of his game calling and D and got a .551 OPS.Back to EST and extensive work in his hitting and to Etown this season he hit .356/.446/.446.Something definitely clicked.I am doing my prospect lists a bit different (i.e. if someone has played in the majors, has graduated from my list - btw, definitely will shoot up at top 15-20 or so.

 

Kirriloff is way way way too high, but that has already been discussed.

Interestingly enough, I think that that guy who dropped the most in your list (Jay) will likely be the guy who did so in mine as well.

 

 

Who said Kirriloff is too high?? just bc he had TJ surgery? was Appy league player of the year..

Hope you're right with Silva.


#35 Seth Stohs

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 07:39 PM

 

 

Of the 50, 12 are new to the organization since the last ranking (all of them in the top 40, by the way). Two questions:

  • How does 12 compare to other years? Is our perception that the new guys have brought more talent into the organization accurate?  
  • What's the status of the 12 from last year?

 

 

12 feels a little bit high, but I'd have to go back and look. I mean, this was a really good draft for the Twins... The international money deals were unusual to this year because of the Braves situation. There were several other trades... And there were a few guys who really stepped up. 

 

But like I said somewhere... the difference between, say, 41 and 70 is all about opinion.


#36 Seth Stohs

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 07:49 PM

 

I am still waiting for the smoke to clear before I start mine (just because of things that happened this week and will happen the next), but I see a really big omission here:Rainis Silva.The guy has always been the top defensive and game calling catcher in the system but could not hit his way out of a paper bag and was pushed to Cedar Rapids last season because of his game calling and D and got a .551 OPS.Back to EST and extensive work in his hitting and to Etown this season he hit .356/.446/.446.Something definitely clicked.I am doing my prospect lists a bit different (i.e. if someone has played in the majors, has graduated from my list - btw, you are missing Chargois as well ;))so Garver is out.Pending further research of Banuelos and transactions, Silva would be my highest rated C.Has been hovering between 20-30 or so in my lists for a while and definitely will shoot up at top 15-20 or so.

 

Kirriloff is way way way too high, but that has already been discussed.

Interestingly enough, I think that that guy who dropped the most in your list (Jay) will likely be the guy who did so in mine as well.

 

The one thing that is certain is that the Twins system is much better this year than last, despite not having many "flashy" prospects.I think that the top 20 or so will have a good chance of making it to the majors (and I mean from my list that does not include the ones who did,) which is more than most systems can claim. And Falvine are not done yet.I hope.

 

While Thrylos and I often disagree... when it comes to prospect rankings, that's the beauty of them. I don't expect anyone to agree 100% with my rankings. 

 

I've seen players in Cedar Rapids every year. I've been at spring training and hung out a lot on the minor league fields something like 4 of the last 5 years or something. Thrylos gets to Red Wings games in Lehigh Valley. And, I know he's been in Ft. Myers for spring training too. 

 

I think he and I have both been on the minor league side at the same time... He may see Player X do something and start paying more and more attention to him. I may be over on another field at that time and see another player do something and my opinion of him goes up or down a little. 

 

To me, that's what makes these lists fun.He really likes Rainis Silva, has for years. I am higher on Kirilloff than he is. There are (gasp) probably a lot more players that we have similar opinions on. It's all good. 

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#37 gman

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 09:26 PM

Lots of potential here. With most of these players more than 1 year away, it will be interesting to see if the recent changes to system admin, coaches and I presume processes bring out a higher return on the minor league system than we have been used to seeing. When I look as this list, I have a hard time not trying to squeeze 30 players into the top 20 slots. 


#38 Brandon

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 09:31 PM

Seth, Where would Severino rank? And did we move back to a top 10 farm system with these new prospects?
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#39 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 09 December 2017 - 11:43 AM

I have a curiousity question. I heard Stephan Gonsalves mentioned on MLB radio but the "expert" pronounced his last name as Gonzales. Is that correct? I have not heard anyone in the Twins organization verbally say his name so I don't know. And I now live in Maine where nothing is pronounced correctly so that doesn't help matters. Aye-yah?

#40 Otwins

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Posted 09 December 2017 - 09:24 PM

Will the newest signee - Severino make the list?




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