Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Recent Blogs

Photo

Article: The Impending Rochester Rotation Crunch

aaron slegers stephen gonsalves fernando romero
  • Please log in to reply
102 replies to this topic

#21 sthpstm

sthpstm

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 132 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:07 AM

 

Great stuff as always, really shows Falvine are in a good spot. Sounds like they may have the financial flexibility to sign a guy or two and at the same time they have depth to use as either injury insurance or trade bait.

 

My guess right now ...

 

MLB: Erv, Berrios, Gibson, NEW, NEW

AAA: Mejia, May (as he builds arm strength), Slegers, Gonsalves, Enns

AA: Jorge, Littell, Romero, Stewart, Eades

 

Obviously trades/Rule 5 draft stuff and injuries could open up spots, but I'd suspect the team will also sign at least one minor league free agent to add to this mix too. But the fact they let Dereck Rodriguez and David Hurlbut go says they feel pretty comfortable with their depth in the upper minors.

 

There are arguments for all those guys I listed in the AA rotation to be in Rochester, but the five guys I listed in the Red Wings rotation need to be in AAA (though I am interested in Nick's idea of Enns in the pen). I don't think it would hurt any of those guys listed to go back to Chattanooga. Looking down into Fort Myers, I don't see anybody that really needs to move up to AA start the year. Thorpe only made 15 starts there and is still going to be building innings, nothing wrong with him going back to the FSL as a 22-year-old to open the year.

 

If they only ended up adding one MLB SP, Mejia moves up to the Twins, Jorge moves up to Rochester and somebody like Randy LeBlanc or Sean Poppen enters the Chattanooga rotation. Phil Hughes is going to need to fit in somewhere too (Triple A bullpen until he's 100% healthy?) and I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody else.

Is there any advantage to starting a pitcher coming off of injury (May - Tommy John surgery) in a warmer climate like Chattanooga or Fort Myers?


#22 Tomj14

Tomj14

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 192 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:08 AM

Here is a partial list of pitchers (with age starting next year) competing for the rotation of the Twins top 3 minor leagues teams. This shows me we should be trading some for more top end talent or at this point there really is no reason not to switch some to relief pitchers.

May - 28
Enns - 27
Eades - 25
Slegers - 25
Stewart - 23
Mejia - 24
Jorge - 24
Poppen - 24
Romero - 23
Gonsalves - 23
Littell - 22
Thorpe - 22
Beeker - 22
Wells - 20
Jax - 23
Barnes - 22
Vasquez - 24


#23 Tomj14

Tomj14

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 192 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:12 AM

 

Keep the actual good pitchers down so a bunch of number five at best can be up? Hate that. I don't care about she, I want the best up

The pitchers with the best chance of having an impact on the major league team should be the priority. To say somebody can be held down because of age, tells me they aren't the prospect we are hoping he is.

  • birdwatcher likes this

#24 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,675 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:15 AM

I'm going to have to agree with Tom on this one, though I am not convinced the Twins will add two starters. I'm still banking on one, with Mejia up and challenged by May, possibly. Though I am certainly open to that second starter and won't complain.

But I also see a pair of quality pen arms added to the mix.

I see Hughes on the DL or EAT followed by rehab assignments to begin the year. (Possibly the same for May, though the 5th spot or AAA seems more likely).

These "logjams" seem to work out due to injury or a possible trade as well. I'm thrilled to have so many options, and feel pretty confident a couple of these guys will be ready at some point in 2018, and gain experience for 2019 and beyond. Only need a couple to "hit" to keep building the staff. And the depth is there to make that happen.
  • Tom Froemming and Dozier's Glorious Hair like this

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

--Lou Brown


#25 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 706 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:18 AM

 

Is there any advantage to starting a pitcher coming off of injury (May - Tommy John surgery) in a warmer climate like Chattanooga or Fort Myers?

Yes, and I believe all the rehab coordinators/a lot of the medical staff are based out of Fort Myers, so there could be some advantage to sending a guy down there if you were concerned about his readiness. On the other hand, if you do feel like a guy is ready, sending him to Rochester to test out how he handles the cold could be kind of an effective final checkpoint. Is he really ready to come back, or are there still stiffness/soreness issues popping up?


#26 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 23,064 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:19 AM

 

The pitchers with the best chance of having an impact on the major league team should be the priority. To say somebody can be held down because of age, tells me they aren't the prospect we are hoping he is.

 

So you think Slegers is more likely to be a good MLB pitcher than Thorpe? 

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#27 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,543 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:25 AM

 

So you think Slegers is more likely to be a good MLB pitcher than Thorpe? 

 

I would say Slegers is much more likely this year to contribute positively to the big league club. Obviously not long term.

 

Upper minors should absolutely prioritize depth for the major leagues, with A ball focusing on development. I don't really see the rush with Thorpe, he can get his feet wet this season in Hi A without it causing any development issues.

  • birdwatcher, DJSim22, Taildragger8791 and 3 others like this
Papers...business papers.

#28 Danchat

Danchat

    Pro Bowl Armchair QB

  • Members
  • 2,629 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:25 AM

Enns looks like a bullpen arm to me. The rest of the logjam will fade when injuries hit, not worried about that. I expect the Twins to add one starter, but I’d really like to see 2 and have Gibson non tendered.

#29 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 706 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:26 AM

 

The pitchers with the best chance of having an impact on the major league team should be the priority. 

Agreed, but that's just not Lewis Thorpe right now. He's 22 and hasn't pitched 200 total innings as a professional. He hasn't reached 90 IP in a season yet. I get that he's on the 40-man roster now, but I have a hard time imagining him as a guy who has a chance at impacting the MLB team in 2018 seeing that he's behind a bunch of other guys in that regard and will certainly be on an innings limit. He's absolutely a legit prospect to be excited about, but this season will be all about staying healthy.

  • birdwatcher, Twins33, dbminn and 2 others like this

#30 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Billy G.O.A.T

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,816 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:27 AM

I hope anyone they plan on converting to the bullpen gets the news in the off season. It seems that guys do much better in the pen if they went in to the season as a reliever. With his current low ceiling I'd probably move Slegers to the pen now and see if he gains velocity. Stature and stuff he has a lot in common with Jon Rauch; that wouldn't be a bad bullpen piece.

  • Mike Sixel and Tomj14 like this

#31 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 23,064 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:27 AM

 

I would say Slegers is much more likely this year to contribute positively to the big league club. Obviously not long term.

 

Upper minors should absolutely prioritize depth for the major leagues, with A ball focusing on development. I don't really see the rush with Thorpe, he can get his feet wet this season in Hi A without it causing any development issues.

 

The rush would be, I don't know, getting him to MN before he gets older. This site is filled with people saying hte TWins should slow play their pitchers, let them get more time in the low minors, what is the hurry.....how has the worked out for this team? Why are other teams calling up younger players? Why are other teams calling up younger RPs, and seeing more strikeouts than this team? Maybe it is because pitchers lose velocity as they age.....

  • rghrbek, KirbyDome89 and Tomj14 like this

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#32 Tomj14

Tomj14

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 192 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:29 AM

 

So you think Slegers is more likely to be a good MLB pitcher than Thorpe? 

Me? not at all, I was trying to say Thorpe (#13) should/can be held back "if ready" because he is young enough to go to a lower team than say Slegers (#34)


#33 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 23,064 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:29 AM

 

I hope anyone they plan on converting to the bullpen gets the news in the off season. It seems that guys don't do as well in the pen if they went in to the season as a starter. With his current low ceiling I'd probably move Slegers to the pen now and see if he gains velocity. Stature and stuff he has a lot in common with Jon Rauch; that wouldn't be a bad bullpen piece.

 

This. Be aggressive, try to win. This team and its fans spend a lot of time trying not to lose.....Slegers is very unlikely to be a very good starting pitcher, but he might be a very good RP. They have plenty of guys in AA and AAA with similar stuff as him, as this article points out. Start moving some of them to RP sooner rather than later.

  • zenser, rghrbek, Tomj14 and 1 other like this

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#34 Tomj14

Tomj14

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 192 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:32 AM

 

I would say Slegers is much more likely this year to contribute positively to the big league club. Obviously not long term.

 

Upper minors should absolutely prioritize depth for the major leagues, with A ball focusing on development. I don't really see the rush with Thorpe, he can get his feet wet this season in Hi A without it causing any development issues.

He did pitch 77 innings there last year in 15 starts, I would be fine with giving him 8-10 to start there, but anything more tells me he went from a top prospect back to just a regular prospect.


#35 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,543 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:48 AM

 

The rush would be, I don't know, getting him to MN before he gets older. This site is filled with people saying hte TWins should slow play their pitchers, let them get more time in the low minors, what is the hurry.....how has the worked out for this team? Why are other teams calling up younger players? Why are other teams calling up younger RPs, and seeing more strikeouts than this team? Maybe it is because pitchers lose velocity as they age.....

 

So you propose a worse development strategy?

 

And are you sure other teams are calling up younger players at some accelerated rate relative to the Twins? I follow prospects and call ups pretty closely and this seems to be often repeated and way overstated (and more likely just flat out wrong). To the extent young guys come up, such as Berrios for example, it is because they are good AND stay healthy.

 

Perhaps Thorpe should get through a full minor league season before we become too concerned about his contributions to the big league club.

  • 70charger and Dozier's Glorious Hair like this
Papers...business papers.

#36 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,543 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:49 AM

 

He did pitch 77 innings there last year in 15 starts, I would be fine with giving him 8-10 to start there, but anything more tells me he went from a top prospect back to just a regular prospect.

 

If he is a top prospect (like I think he is), I don't think he'll even need 8-10 starts. And I agree, if he is at Hi A longer, it will take a lot of the luster off his prospect status.

Papers...business papers.

#37 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,543 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:53 AM

 

This. Be aggressive, try to win. This team and its fans spend a lot of time trying not to lose.....Slegers is very unlikely to be a very good starting pitcher, but he might be a very good RP. They have plenty of guys in AA and AAA with similar stuff as him, as this article points out. Start moving some of them to RP sooner rather than later.

 

He might surprise, but Slegers as a reliever really wouldn't profile as anything more than a long man, or possibly the 6th guy in a pen. What would be the hurry to push him to that, especially when he does provide depth to the rotation, especially early in the season. Outside of him and Gonsalves, no one else in the article is really prepared to step into the rotation for the first 2-3 months of the season.

 

I could get behind the plan with Romero, but it also seems worth exploring whether he can stay on as a starter, because the potential payoff would be so high.

  • birdwatcher and bluechipper like this
Papers...business papers.

#38 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,543 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:54 AM

 

Enns looks like a bullpen arm to me. The rest of the logjam will fade when injuries hit, not worried about that. I expect the Twins to add one starter, but I’d really like to see 2 and have Gibson non tendered.

 

Too late on Gibson.

Papers...business papers.

#39 Tomj14

Tomj14

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 192 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:58 AM

 

So you propose a worse development strategy?

 

And are you sure other teams are calling up younger players at some accelerated rate relative to the Twins? I follow prospects and call ups pretty closely and this seems to be often repeated and way overstated (and more likely just flat out wrong). To the extent young guys come up, such as Berrios for example, it is because they are good AND stay healthy.

 

Perhaps Thorpe should get through a full minor league season before we become too concerned about his contributions to the big league club.

I think the point is if our pitchers are real prospects they should be established major leaguers by the time they are 24-25. (Berrios, Gray, Sale, Archer, etc..) 


#40 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 2,501 posts

Posted 06 December 2017 - 11:02 AM

I think the average player in the FSL is something like 23-years-old, so Thorpe and Wells would still be young for that level. Also, neither of those two have pitched healthy through an entire year of full-season ball yet. I would feel comfortable starting the year with both of them on the Miracle.


I don’t think average age of a particular minor league level is a meaningful evaluation. The guys that are prospects are generally younger than “org fill” players at each level. They have to be otherwise they would be completely overmatched.
  • USAFChief and Mike Sixel like this



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: aaron slegers, stephen gonsalves, fernando romero