Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Part 8: Seth's Updated Top 50 Minnesota Twins Prospects (1-5)

royce lewis stephen gonsalves nick gordon fernando romero alex kirilloff
  • Please log in to reply
68 replies to this topic

#21 markos

markos

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,258 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 10:40 AM

Seth didn't mention anything about Romero's injury. From Sickels's writeup on Romero:

 

https://www.minorlea...spects-for-2018

"Age 22; solid season in Double-A with 3.53 ERA, 120/45 K/BB in 125 innings, a mere four homers allowed; campaign ended on a down note with poor pitching in August (8.38 ERA) punctuated by a trip to the disabled list with a shoulder impingement; status unclear at the moment; when healthy combination of plus stuff and command could make him number three starter or impressive power reliever. ETA 2018 if healthy"

 

Romero's peripherals also point toward injury instead of tiring at the end of the season. He didn't strike out less that 22% of the batters he faced in any game for 2 straight months (averaging 28% overall), and then went 14%, 0%, two week break, 8%, 12%, shutdown for the year.

 

Does anyone have an update on his health?


#22 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,783 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 30 November 2017 - 10:50 AM

Wearing down and getting injured strike me more as connected than being alternative explanations for his drop.
Papers...business papers.

#23 Dantes929

Dantes929

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,081 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 10:50 AM

 

Oh no, in the grand scheme of things for the Twins creating more competition and making those guys force their way in is certainly not a bad thing. But just from a selfish viewpoint of my own fandom, am I going to be more excited/invested in seeing Gonsalves/Romero or even Aaron Slegers or Trevor May pitch in the rotation, or a free agent? My heart wants to see our young guys get a shot, but my head wants the Twins to sign two starters and two relievers.

I'm in between.When is the last time the Twins added two starters and two relievers that everyone was happy with? I think the answer is never. Every "proven" player has been a prospect at one point and they don't exclusively get their chances with the losing teams and then get picked up by the better teams when they succeed.Every team relies on prospects and not just the non contending teams and not just the top prospects. Look at Bellinger for the Dodgers. He was actually mentioned as an add on piece in a trade for Dozier. and a quick check says he was only the 9th ranked prospect of the Dodgers heading into last season. Of course more prospects fail than succeed but it is a long season and every team has a revolving door of them throughout the year.Many fail but some stick. I don't think adding two starters and relievers is necessary.There are probably 25 teams looking to add starters and relievers and the lists I see usually only mention a COMBINED total of less than a dozen attractive free agent pitchers and probably a similar amount of trade possibilities. . If we could just nab one starter above the Pelfrey/Correia quality and one good reliever I would be happy since the odds say we won't get more than one or the other or maybe even neither.My preference is for Cobb but if it is Darvish or Lynn I am ok with that. Start the season with Santana, Berrios, Cobb, Meija, and Gibson and have the 4 you mentioned be ready my June because the odds are one or two starters will under perform and of those 4 prospects one or two should be able to contribute. 

Adding Cobb and a good reliever would probably rank with any off season we have had in the last 30 years aside from the AJ trade.Without hindsight that includes the 91 year. 

  • Tom Froemming likes this
Don't Sweat the Small Stuff ... and it's all small stuff.

#24 Taildragger8791

Taildragger8791

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 884 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:01 AM

 

I feel like I keep putting up the same post, but the reality is, we have two arms that are cheaper, younger and ready - forget the free agent fishing trip and concentrate on getting our own players into the lineup.  

 

Saying that Gonsalves and Romero are ready today is a stretch, and I'm not a fan of banking my season on prospects making seamless transitions from AA to MLB right out of the gate.

 

Gonsalves doesn't have a ceiling higher than Berrios/Santana, which is the kind of pitcher we're tring to acquire. His ceiling is much more middle of the road and he still has work to do on control/command, so he'll potentially be an up & down guy for the next couple of years.

 

Romero is still building up the stamina for a full season. He won't be up to 200 innings for another 3 years. He can probably contribute soon but he isn't going to be there in the playoffs without some careful management (which means you still need another pitcher to backfill for him).

  • ashburyjohn likes this

#25 Kwak

Kwak

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,939 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:08 AM

One problem I see when reading "lists" is that all of the numbers from 1 to whatever must get filled. What's missing is some kind of a "value factor".Some number, say one a 1-1000, attached to each prospect in order for people to ascertain both the expected/anticipated value of a prospect and the relative value (difference) between the prospects.

 

Examples could show that prospects 5-15 might be a in range of 2% (20 points), but from 4 to 5 might be more like 90 points.Obviously there could be both narrow and broad differences between "lower level" prospects.


#26 Steve Lein

Steve Lein

    Senior Member - MiLB Report Contributor

  • Administrators
  • 1,675 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:11 AM

 

Seth didn't mention anything about Romero's injury. From Sickels's writeup on Romero:

 

https://www.minorlea...spects-for-2018

"Age 22; solid season in Double-A with 3.53 ERA, 120/45 K/BB in 125 innings, a mere four homers allowed; campaign ended on a down note with poor pitching in August (8.38 ERA) punctuated by a trip to the disabled list with a shoulder impingement; status unclear at the moment; when healthy combination of plus stuff and command could make him number three starter or impressive power reliever. ETA 2018 if healthy"

 

Romero's peripherals also point toward injury instead of tiring at the end of the season. He didn't strike out less that 22% of the batters he faced in any game for 2 straight months (averaging 28% overall), and then went 14%, 0%, two week break, 8%, 12%, shutdown for the year.

 

Does anyone have an update on his health?

 

I think they just shut him down. Probably minor injury if one at all.

 

They were already limiting him to 5 innings in several starts before then.

Edited by Steve Lein, 30 November 2017 - 11:12 AM.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)

#27 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,783 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:17 AM

I'm in between. When is the last time the Twins added two starters and two relievers that everyone was happy with? I think the answer is never. Every "proven" player has been a prospect at one point and they don't exclusively get their chances with the losing teams and then get picked up by the better teams when they succeed. Every team relies on prospects and not just the non contending teams and not just the top prospects. Look at Bellinger for the Dodgers. He was actually mentioned as an add on piece in a trade for Dozier. and a quick check says he was only the 9th ranked prospect of the Dodgers heading into last season. Of course more prospects fail than succeed but it is a long season and every team has a revolving door of them throughout the year. Many fail but some stick. I don't think adding two starters and relievers is necessary. There are probably 25 teams looking to add starters and relievers and the lists I see usually only mention a COMBINED total of less than a dozen attractive free agent pitchers and probably a similar amount of trade possibilities. . If we could just nab one starter above the Pelfrey/Correia quality and one good reliever I would be happy since the odds say we won't get more than one or the other or maybe even neither. My preference is for Cobb but if it is Darvish or Lynn I am ok with that. Start the season with Santana, Berrios, Cobb, Meija, and Gibson and have the 4 you mentioned be ready my June because the odds are one or two starters will under perform and of those 4 prospects one or two should be able to contribute.
Adding Cobb and a good reliever would probably rank with any off season we have had in the last 30 years aside from the AJ trade. Without hindsight that includes the 91 year.


It's a small part of your point, but Bellinger was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball going into the 2017 season.

Most of the people talking about adding Bellinger to a Dozier deal were being snarky.
  • Taildragger8791 and Vanimal46 like this
Papers...business papers.

#28 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,783 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:21 AM

One problem I see when reading "lists" is that all of the numbers from 1 to whatever must get filled. What's missing is some kind of a "value factor". Some number, say one a 1-1000, attached to each prospect in order for people to ascertain both the expected/anticipated value of a prospect and the relative value (difference) between the prospects.

Examples could show that prospects 5-15 might be a in range of 2% (20 points), but from 4 to 5 might be more like 90 points. Obviously there could be both narrow and broad differences between "lower level" prospects.


A good place to start is Sickels rankings: https://www.google.c...spects-for-2018

Fangraphs also does future value, Baseball America does a combined future value/risk profile.
Papers...business papers.

#29 clutterheart

clutterheart

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,528 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:22 AM

I am slowly becoming less hopeful when it comes to Gordon.We still read concerns about his defense, and if he can't play average MLB SS, his bat is not strong enough to play other positions.He strikes out a lot and doesn't hit with a lot of power.  

 

To my eye, I think he is trade candidate this offseason.

  • NoCryingInBaseball and nater79a like this

#30 clutterheart

clutterheart

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,528 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:24 AM

 

One problem I see when reading "lists" is that all of the numbers from 1 to whatever must get filled. What's missing is some kind of a "value factor".Some number, say one a 1-1000, attached to each prospect in order for people to ascertain both the expected/anticipated value of a prospect and the relative value (difference) between the prospects.

 

Examples could show that prospects 5-15 might be a in range of 2% (20 points), but from 4 to 5 might be more like 90 points.Obviously there could be both narrow and broad differences between "lower level" prospects.

 

I would be interested in reading a post that attempted this. But its ambitious because arguments ensue when "value" is defined.


#31 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 16,072 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:32 AM

 

Seth didn't mention anything about Romero's injury. From Sickels's writeup on Romero:

 

https://www.minorlea...spects-for-2018

"Age 22; solid season in Double-A with 3.53 ERA, 120/45 K/BB in 125 innings, a mere four homers allowed; campaign ended on a down note with poor pitching in August (8.38 ERA) punctuated by a trip to the disabled list with a shoulder impingement; status unclear at the moment; when healthy combination of plus stuff and command could make him number three starter or impressive power reliever. ETA 2018 if healthy"

 

Romero's peripherals also point toward injury instead of tiring at the end of the season. He didn't strike out less that 22% of the batters he faced in any game for 2 straight months (averaging 28% overall), and then went 14%, 0%, two week break, 8%, 12%, shutdown for the year.

 

Does anyone have an update on his health?

 

He was on an innings limit plan. He had been limited to five innings per start for a month or six weeks before he was shut down. He was shut down when he had kind of a dead arm. It's something where if it had happened in the middle of the season, he'd skip a start and be back out there. Since it was only one more start, and he was so close to a limit, they just shut him down. 

  • MN_ExPat likes this

#32 markos

markos

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,258 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:42 AM

 

He was on an innings limit plan. He had been limited to five innings per start for a month or six weeks before he was shut down. He was shut down when he had kind of a dead arm. It's something where if it had happened in the middle of the season, he'd skip a start and be back out there. Since it was only one more start, and he was so close to a limit, they just shut him down. 

So you are saying that Sickels just made up all the stuff about the disabled list and shoulder impingement? Romero did skip a start in early-August. Was that for the same dead-arm issue?

 

I don't mean to be snarky here. I trust Sickels a lot - he seems to be a straight-shooter when it comes to his analysis, and he draws from a lot of sources inside the industry. His analysis of Romero heavily focused on the injury issue. Seth and Steve both said it was actually a big nothing-burger. I'm just trying to reconcile this discrepancy.

  • birdwatcher likes this

#33 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 16,072 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:49 AM

 

So you are saying that Sickels just made up all the stuff about the disabled list and shoulder impingement? Romero did skip a start in early-August. Was that for the same dead-arm issue?

 

I don't mean to be snarky here. I trust Sickels a lot - he seems to be a straight-shooter when it comes to his analysis, and he draws from a lot of sources inside the industry. His analysis of Romero heavily focused on the injury issue. Seth and Steve both said it was actually a big nothing-burger. I'm just trying to reconcile this discrepancy.

 

Nope... he went on the Disabled List with what was called a shoulder impingement. 

  • markos likes this

#34 Dantes929

Dantes929

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,081 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 12:09 PM

 

It's a small part of your point, but Bellinger was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball going into the 2017 season.

Most of the people talking about adding Bellinger to a Dozier deal were being snarky.

Whoops.Going by memory and this bad list. https://www.trueblue...-trade-rankings.

Don't Sweat the Small Stuff ... and it's all small stuff.

#35 Steve Lein

Steve Lein

    Senior Member - MiLB Report Contributor

  • Administrators
  • 1,675 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 12:36 PM

 

It's a small part of your point, but Bellinger was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball going into the 2017 season.

Most of the people talking about adding Bellinger to a Dozier deal were being snarky.

 

Yup, I was saying if you're trading Dozier to the Dodgers and Bellinger was available, he was the guy you wanted, not the pitchers.

 

I am slowly becoming less hopeful when it comes to Gordon.We still read concerns about his defense, and if he can't play average MLB SS, his bat is not strong enough to play other positions.He strikes out a lot and doesn't hit with a lot of power.  

 

To my eye, I think he is trade candidate this offseason.

 

If you're afraid of the concerns on defense for Gordon, you're really going to dislike them for Lewis...

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)

#36 Kelly Vance

Kelly Vance

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 333 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 01:43 PM

Id like to see Romero and maybe Reed or Burdi, get a shot in the 2018 bullpen. That kind of speed is tailor made for a 7-8-9 reliever


#37 Taildragger8791

Taildragger8791

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 884 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 02:36 PM

 

Yup, I was saying if you're trading Dozier to the Dodgers and Bellinger was available, he was the guy you wanted, not the pitchers.

 

 

If you're afraid of the concerns on defense for Gordon, you're really going to dislike them for Lewis...

 

Lewis is 4 years younger, is more athletic, and didn't play SS until he was a senior in high school, so we don't know whether he can grow into the position or not. All we know is he hasn't played himself out of the hole yet. He also has the potential to fall back to another position and still be viable offensively & defensively, so SS isn't make or break for his value. Gordon's question marks are more concerning as a 22-year old that played the position his whole life, especially when his value drops off considerably at any other position.

  • clutterheart likes this

#38 bobs

bobs

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 143 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 02:40 PM

With all due respect to everything Terry Ryan did for the organization, anyone else have more confidence in Falvine to draft better and develop better than the previous regime?


#39 bobs

bobs

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 143 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 02:42 PM

 

Yup, I was saying if you're trading Dozier to the Dodgers and Bellinger was available, he was the guy you wanted, not the pitchers.

 

 

If you're afraid of the concerns on defense for Gordon, you're really going to dislike them for Lewis...

Possible move to the OF was mentioned as a possibility when Lewis was drafted I believe?


#40 bobs

bobs

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 143 posts

Posted 30 November 2017 - 02:42 PM

 

Id like to see Romero and maybe Reed or Burdi, get a shot in the 2018 bullpen. That kind of speed is tailor made for a 7-8-9 reliever

Or all 3?!




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: royce lewis, stephen gonsalves, nick gordon, fernando romero, alex kirilloff