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Trading for Pitchers: What would you give up for each player?

trade rumors prospects gerrit cole raisal iglesias
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#21 brvama

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:28 PM

The writer seems to think that a package centered around Dozier + Gonsalves + a catcher (Garver or Rortvedt) could be a potential package. There have also been suggestions to add Gibson as well to reduce the sting of losing Cole a bit. That said it seems like A LOT to give up for two years of cost controlled Cole especially after his last two seasons.


I understood that the writer didn't think Dozier would be traded so he went on to the prospects. He then used Gonsalves as the centerpiece with one of the two catchers. Just my interpretation.

#22 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 07:12 AM

Based on Fangraph's aging curve methodology and MLBTR's arbitration estimates, here is an approximation of the surplus value for the starting pitchers in question.
https://www.mlbtrade...s-for-2018.html
SP Gerrit Cole: ~$40M
SP Chris Archer: ~$130M
SP Jake Odorizzi: ~$20M
SP Dan Straily: ~$15M
SP Marcus Stroman: ~$70M

Based on some older (2016) work estimating the surplus value of the prospects, here is a SWAG at the valuation of the Twins prospects based on their MLB Pipeline ranking.
http://www.thepointo...pdated-edition/
http://m.mlb.com/pro...?list=prospects
Gordon: ~$45M
Gonsalves: ~$20M
Romero: ~$20M

Looking at a the recent history of player-for-prospect trades, teams generally need to overpay by 50%-100% in order to acquire the player they want.

All that said:
- I think that Gordon + Romero/Gonsalves/Thorpe for Cole is very fair. As I've said in other threads, I don't think it is a winning bid (someone is going to value Cole as a 4+ WAR pitcher rather than the 3ish WAR pitcher he has historically been).
- I don't think the Twins can acquire Archer with prospects.
- Gordon for Odorizzi + something (maybe a reliever) is something I can get behind.
- Not a fan of Straily at all.
- They probably need to put Lewis on the table to acquire Stroman. I don't think I would do that.



Only $130 million surplus value for Archer? From this perspective it does seem unlikely that the Twins could trade for him with prospects.

Just out of curiosity, what surplus value would Royce Lewis and Buxton have? (And Sano and Berrios?)

#23 dbminn

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 07:51 AM

 

Only $130 million surplus value for Archer? From this perspective it does seem unlikely that the Twins could trade for him with prospects.

Just out of curiosity, what surplus value would Royce Lewis and Buxton have? (And Sano and Berrios?)

 

Based on 2018 FG projections for Buxton (3.0 WAR) and Sano (3.6), they would have a surplus value of roughly $80M and $105M, respectively. Archer is worth more for two reasons - a slightly higher WAR projection and a team-friendly contract. By FG rankings, Buxton is worth about the same as McCullers and Sano is about the same as Conforto. (Both Sano and Buxton are projected higher now than when the chart was produced in mid-2017). 

 

Not endorsing FG projections on WAR. Adjust according to your preference. IMO, I wouldn't trade either Sano or Buxton straight-up for Archer because I think they have higher upside.

Edited by dbminn, 18 December 2017 - 07:58 AM.

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#24 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 08:10 AM

The price I see for Cole makes me not very interested in trading for a pitcher... in part b/c I want Archer more (who will also be more expensive) and b/c Cole has really underperformed and has only 2 years left... I could get behind a package for Archer that would involve Gordon, one of Gonsalves or Romero, a high floor/near ready guy like Jorge, as a starting point for a negotiation for Archer, but Tampa will rightfully want more. There's plenty of lotto tickets that could be sent their way as well. I'm not quite sure I'm ready to send Lewis over there too.

 

I'd say no to Thorpe (mainly b/c I'm pretty high on him). While I think the trade makes sense, given the names tossed around, I think the price for either of these guys is a bit steep and I'd rather just spend the cash on Darvish/Lynn.


#25 markos

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 08:55 AM

 

Only $130 million surplus value for Archer? From this perspective it does seem unlikely that the Twins could trade for him with prospects.

Just out of curiosity, what surplus value would Royce Lewis and Buxton have? (And Sano and Berrios?)

 

Based on 2018 FG projections for Buxton (3.0 WAR) and Sano (3.6), they would have a surplus value of roughly $80M and $105M, respectively. Archer is worth more for two reasons - a slightly higher WAR projection and a team-friendly contract. By FG rankings, Buxton is worth about the same as McCullers and Sano is about the same as Conforto. (Both Sano and Buxton are projected higher now than when the chart was produced in mid-2017). 

 

Not endorsing FG projections on WAR. Adjust according to your preference. IMO, I wouldn't trade either Sano or Buxton straight-up for Archer because I think they have higher upside.

 

I largely agree with dbminn's analysis. I also think Buxton is ~$80M, but I actually have Sano (at ~$50M) lower for two reasons:

1) I think his projection overrates this PAs for next season. They are projecting ~600 PAs and he hasn't cracked 500 PAs yet.
2) He is going to be paid a lot (relative to Buxton) in arbitration because he is a HR and RBI guy.

 

Based on the historic perfomance of #1 picks (average ~17 WAR over their first 7 seasons) and his current age (at least two full seasons away from the majors), I think ~$70M is a reasonable guess for Royce Lewis.

And as dbminn said, there are a lot of levers you can pull that will adjust these numbers. So take the specific values with a large grain of salt. But directionally, I think they are correct - Archer is probably 25%-50% more valuable than any of Sano/Buxton/Lewis, so it will take more than just one of them (but less than two of them) to pry Archer away from the Rays.

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