Only $130 million surplus value for Archer? From this perspective it does seem unlikely that the Twins could trade for him with prospects.
Just out of curiosity, what surplus value would Royce Lewis and Buxton have? (And Sano and Berrios?)
Based on 2018 FG projections for Buxton (3.0 WAR) and Sano (3.6), they would have a surplus value of roughly $80M and $105M, respectively. Archer is worth more for two reasons - a slightly higher WAR projection and a team-friendly contract. By FG rankings, Buxton is worth about the same as McCullers and Sano is about the same as Conforto. (Both Sano and Buxton are projected higher now than when the chart was produced in mid-2017).
Not endorsing FG projections on WAR. Adjust according to your preference. IMO, I wouldn't trade either Sano or Buxton straight-up for Archer because I think they have higher upside.
I largely agree with dbminn's analysis. I also think Buxton is ~$80M, but I actually have Sano (at ~$50M) lower for two reasons:
1) I think his projection overrates this PAs for next season. They are projecting ~600 PAs and he hasn't cracked 500 PAs yet.
2) He is going to be paid a lot (relative to Buxton) in arbitration because he is a HR and RBI guy.
Based on the historic perfomance of #1 picks (average ~17 WAR over their first 7 seasons) and his current age (at least two full seasons away from the majors), I think ~$70M is a reasonable guess for Royce Lewis.
And as dbminn said, there are a lot of levers you can pull that will adjust these numbers. So take the specific values with a large grain of salt. But directionally, I think they are correct - Archer is probably 25%-50% more valuable than any of Sano/Buxton/Lewis, so it will take more than just one of them (but less than two of them) to pry Archer away from the Rays.