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Article: Twins With Options On The Trade Front

minnesota twins alex kirilloff nick gordon gerrit cole jake odorizzi
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#61 spinowner

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 12:25 PM

Santana alone is not going to fetch much. He's got one year left on his contract and it's very likely his production is going to drop, possibly precipitously. A rebuilding team is not going to trade for him. A middling team is not going to trade for him. The type of team that will trade for him is a good contending team with weakness at the back of its rotation. Such a team is unlikely to give up an emerging young pitcher like the Twins need. The best option for the Twins would be to include him as a throw-in to boost their return in a trade involving other players. 

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#62 drjim

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 01:03 PM

Santana alone is not going to fetch much. He's got one year left on his contract and it's very likely his production is going to drop, possibly precipitously. A rebuilding team is not going to trade for him. A middling team is not going to trade for him. The type of team that will trade for him is a good contending team with weakness at the back of its rotation. Such a team is unlikely to give up an emerging young pitcher like the Twins need. The best option for the Twins would be to include him as a throw-in to boost their return in a trade involving other players.


The best option for the Twins is to keep him. He fills a big hole competently.
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#63 DocBauer

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 01:13 PM

Agree with probably keeping Santana. Only teams interested in him, due to age and not because he's not valuable, are contenders needing another starter. But that also creates another hole in the Twins rotation to be solved. Whereby, keeping him, at least for one more quality season, allows for a prospect to be more ready or experienced to step up in 2019.
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#64 DocBauer

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 02:06 PM

IMO, while there are certainly scenarios where it could work out just fine, I'd really like to see the team...not gut the farm...but do a legitimate, quality 4 (or 5) for 1 deal and keep the ML roster intact.

I think the roster, overall, is constructed well and filled with such potential that I would hate to lose Rosario or Kepler. While I love Polanco, and believe in him, keeping Dozier and letting Adrianza play SS at least works.

If not the FA route, or international route, I'd keep the roster intact and try a Gordon, Romero, Jorge and player "X" option.
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#65 Thrylos

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 02:58 PM

 

 

 

others looking like they'll be in MN sometime in 2018 (Gonsalves, Romero, Pudge Jr).

 

Dereck Rodriguez (Pudge Jr) signed as a free agent with the Giants.

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#66 laloesch

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 08:46 PM

If Kepler or Rosario is added, plus swapping out Gonsalves or Romero for Jorge, then maybe.


If it's Archer i could see it being Rosario, Gordon, Romero and one lesser pitching prospect such as Littell or Gonsalves. I'd could also see a deal involving Dozier (they could use an established 2nd baseman). As everyone knows it will take A LOT to pry Archer away from the Rays if they are even considering it.

#67 laloesch

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 08:55 PM

Santana alone is not going to fetch much. He's got one year left on his contract and it's very likely his production is going to drop, possibly precipitously. A rebuilding team is not going to trade for him. A middling team is not going to trade for him. The type of team that will trade for him is a good contending team with weakness at the back of its rotation. Such a team is unlikely to give up an emerging young pitcher like the Twins need. The best option for the Twins would be to include him as a throw-in to boost their return in a trade involving other players.

I disagree, an older playoff competing team could trade for him to solidify the back end or middle of their rotation. I could see a deal where the Twins get back a promising AA prospect and a less developed pitching prospect from a lower level. Downside is that it would make them (Twins) less competitive in the short term. We have Santana for two years at a team friendly contract but he's already 34. At the conclusion of his deal he's likely declining at age 36/37 which won't help Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler in the years that follow unless the Twins feel he's worth resigning and still has some gas left. If the Twins don't trade for a top of the rotation starter or sign a significant free agent pitcher or two i think they should consider making him available for the right price.

Edited by laloesch, 26 November 2017 - 09:03 PM.


#68 kab21

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 11:18 PM

 

Yes they do.Because they are rebuilding and want to shed salary.I bet that if you call the Mets, or the Dodgers, or the Dbacks, or the Angels (for example), they do not hang the phone.

The Pirates goal in trading Cole, McCutchen or Rivero will mostly be to rebuild with young prospects. They might want to save money but that will not be the focus of any trades that they make. If you were a fan of the Pirates then you would never be proposing anything like this during a rebuild moment.

 

The Dodgers for example are most definitely not going to trade a young and good pitcher (Wood) for Dozier. Perhaps they are desperate enough to trade Urias but he was firmly on the untouchable list last year.

 

The Mets or DBacks are theoretically plausible but they will likely want something else for good, young and established starting pitching. These teams know exactly why you want to trade him. It isn't a secret that he is a FA in a year.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#69 Twins33

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 01:00 AM

The Dodgers for example are most definitely not going to trade a young and good pitcher (Wood) for Dozier. Perhaps they are desperate enough to trade Urias but he was firmly on the untouchable list last year.

Urias has the same injury as Johan Santana. I remember seeing reporters tweet that they fear his career may be over. Wish I could remember which reporters but it was mentioned during and after the season on twitter. So they may not be so clingy about him anymore.

#70 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:24 AM

 

Because, esp. the Mets, they would value a veteran presence.'

 

And Santana does not come alone.Dozier will be included in the trade, and both of these teams are sorely lacking second basemen. 

 

The trade is Santana+Dozier for 1 young top of the rotation SP.

(and what it takes to balance it on both sides in prospects)

 

I just don't see it. It's a very low opinion of the intelligence of the Met's FO. I could certainly see trading Santana, especially if that netted some prospects that could be combined with some of our prospects to get a guy like Archer, but I don't see a scenario where the Mets trade for him, and I'm not sure 1 year of Dozier for a team that won 70 games last year is going to encourage them to part for a front line starter.


#71 kab21

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 09:07 AM

 

Urias has the same injury as Johan Santana. I remember seeing reporters tweet that they fear his career may be over. Wish I could remember which reporters but it was mentioned during and after the season on twitter. So they may not be so clingy about him anymore.

I wasn't sure how serious his injury was but that also means that the Twins probably wouldn't target him. The point remains that the Dodgers are parting with a young and very good starter for one year of Dozier.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#72 Twins33

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 01:40 PM

I wasn't sure how serious his injury was but that also means that the Twins probably wouldn't target him. The point remains that the Dodgers are parting with a young and very good starter for one year of Dozier.

Right. I was just pointing it out in case you weren't aware. I think there are certain levels of seriousness of the injury, so maybe he'll be fine. There is small sample size of pitchers who have had the surgery, I think like five, and the results are bad.

Personally I don't think the Dodgers are going to trade for a 2B again. They'll hope Forsythe is healthy and better in the regular season than he was last year. He did decently in the playoffs. Having a good 2B seems more like a luxury for them rather than a need. They won a lot of games without Forsythe's help.

#73 andy4butler

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 07:32 PM

I'm still convinced the best idea is to trade Polanco while his value is likely at it's highest.No matter how much I'm a believer in the fact he can be a .280 / .330 / .400 hitter ... I'm really concerned about the glove.Sign Cozart who will be undervalued as a medium term replacement (check out his defensive ability) and wait for one of the prospects to pan out.  

 

I'm also not a fan of overpaying for Escobar (as much of a savior as he was) unless we determine that Sano is just going to be perpetually overweight and injured.Those $$$ should go elsewhere. 

 

With this said, I fully expect Eddie to be back on the team.As for Jorge, I probably am dreaming there ... but he should net a decent return from some team.  


#74 Thrylos

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 07:49 PM

 

The Pirates goal in trading Cole, McCutchen or Rivero will mostly be to rebuild with young prospects. They might want to save money but that will not be the focus of any trades that they make. If you were a fan of the Pirates then you would never be proposing anything like this during a rebuild moment.

 

Well, I kinda happen to live in a semi Pirates fan base and the word here is $ relief.

 

Also who of:

 

Kepler, Kirilloff, Gordon, Gonsalves (2 of) Burdi, Bard, Reed, Melotakis

 

is not a young player a team would not like to build on?

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#75 drjim

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 07:55 PM

Well, I kinda happen to live in a semi Pirates fan base and the word here is $ relief.

Also who of:

Kepler, Kirilloff, Gordon, Gonsalves (2 of) Burdi, Bard, Reed, Melotakis

is not a young player a team would not like to build on?


Those are all perfectly fine pieces, but the Pirates can do better.
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#76 Thrylos

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 08:40 PM

 

Those are all perfectly fine pieces, but the Pirates can do better.

 

Do tell:How much better.Name names


 

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#77 drjim

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 09:10 PM


Do tell: How much better. Name names


From all 28 other teams?
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#78 kab21

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 09:39 PM

 

Well, I kinda happen to live in a semi Pirates fan base and the word here is $ relief.

 

Also who of:

 

Kepler, Kirilloff, Gordon, Gonsalves (2 of) Burdi, Bard, Reed, Melotakis

 

is not a young player a team would not like to build on?

Dozier and Santana aren't and they are in your trade. The Pirates will want all players like the first four that you named and likely a headliner top prospect.

The last 4 are eligible for the Rule V draft. No value. Zero

 

Yes, they will want money relief but they primary focus will be the rebuilding part. And that means prospects instead of 1 year rentals. And if money relief is the focus of their trade then they will want COMPLETE relief instead of partial relief taking back contracts.

The thing that you and everyone needs to do when making trades is 'would I do this if I was running the other team?' You almost certainly wouldn't trade for Dozier if you were rebuilding a team. That is a lateral move or actually a 1 step forward and 2 steps back since he is older and controlled for fewer years than the players that you are trading away.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#79 spinowner

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:32 PM

 

I'm still convinced the best idea is to trade Polanco while his value is likely at it's highest.No matter how much I'm a believer in the fact he can be a .280 / .330 / .400 hitter ... I'm really concerned about the glove.

Point well taken, but I think (and I would guess Falvine think) that Polanco is the second baseman of the future. Keep him if possible.




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