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National Writers on Twins Prospects

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#101 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:35 PM

Right, but that can be hard to predict in the middle and later rounds.


But saving money on your first pick allows you to draft less of those non prospect filter types with your early round picks.

#102 nytwinsfan

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 09:41 AM

Twins did really well on Fangraphs' "Here's Some Lower-Ranked Prospects We Love."

 

Included:

 

Pitchers:

Brusdar Graterol

 

Corner-Outfielders:

Lewin Diaz

 

Middle-Infielders:

Wander Javier

Yunior Severino (this was sort of a pleasant surprise. BTW, as a Junot Diaz fan, I LOVE the name Yunior).

 

Performers Staring Us in the Face:

Brent Rooker

LaMonte Wade

 

Outfielders:

Akil Baddoo

 

Recall that Lewis, Gordon and Kirilloff were all on their top 100 list and that Gonsalves and Romero were in the list of other players who were closely considered for the top 100.The only two I see potentially missing who might arguably be on here are Lewis Thorpe (under Performers Staring Us in the Face) and Blayne Enlow (Pitchers), but that's a pretty small quibble. Overall the Twins are very very well represented on this list, which although not a huge surprise, is nice to see.

 

 

Edited by nytwinsfan, 07 February 2018 - 09:42 AM.

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#103 dbminn

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 11:22 AM

 

Twins did really well on Fangraphs' "Here's Some Lower-Ranked Prospects We Love."

 

Included:

 

Pitchers:

Brusdar Graterol

 

Corner-Outfielders:

Lewin Diaz

 

Middle-Infielders:

Wander Javier

Yunior Severino (this was sort of a pleasant surprise. BTW, as a Junot Diaz fan, I LOVE the name Yunior).

 

Performers Staring Us in the Face:

Brent Rooker

LaMonte Wade

 

Outfielders:

Akil Baddoo

 

Recall that Lewis, Gordon and Kirilloff were all on their top 100 list and that Gonsalves and Romero were in the list of other players who were closely considered for the top 100.The only two I see potentially missing who might arguably be on here are Lewis Thorpe (under Performers Staring Us in the Face) and Blayne Enlow (Pitchers), but that's a pretty small quibble. Overall the Twins are very very well represented on this list, which although not a huge surprise, is nice to see.

 

I've heard Junot Diaz interviewed and he's incredibly thoughtful. I still haven't read anything by him. Your mention puts him back to the top of my "to read" list. He's the author "Staring Me in the Face".

 

On the baseball side, it's nice to see Wade get a little love. I was disappointed by his slugging percentage last year but all of the other metrics are on track: great K/BB ratio, OBP near .400 and lots of line drives. He's been one of my favorites to follow since he signed and I'll be cheering hard for him this year. He's going to be needed in the near future.

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#104 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 12:04 PM

I tweeted with Eric L from Fangraphs about there stil being no Tyler Jay sighting on their lists....here is his reply:

 

Was 87-93 in the AFL with poor extension. Breaking balls are still solid, though.

 

 

So, not sure what that means, other than they don't like/love him very much right now!

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#105 nytwinsfan

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:01 PM

 

I tweeted with Eric L from Fangraphs about there stil being no Tyler Jay sighting on their lists....here is his reply:

 

Was 87-93 in the AFL with poor extension. Breaking balls are still solid, though.

 

 

So, not sure what that means, other than they don't like/love him very much right now!

His shoulder and/or neck probably still were not 100%. He's got to get healthy. Hopefully this offseason was his chance to do that.


#106 nytwinsfan

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:04 PM

 

 

I've heard Junot Diaz interviewed and he's incredibly thoughtful. I still haven't read anything by him. Your mention puts him back to the top of my "to read" list. He's the author "Staring Me in the Face".

 

On the baseball side, it's nice to see Wade get a little love. I was disappointed by his slugging percentage last year but all of the other metrics are on track: great K/BB ratio, OBP near .400 and lots of line drives. He's been one of my favorites to follow since he signed and I'll be cheering hard for him this year. He's going to be needed in the near future.

Junot Diaz is an amazing speaker on almost any topic (ridiculously smart, insightful and even just casually profound) and an even better writer. Everything he writes is amazing, but Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao is his magnum opus.If you want a small taste, try this zombie short story he wrote for the New Yorker. It isn't his usual subject matter, but his style is unmistakable: https://www.newyorke...2/06/04/monstro

Edited by nytwinsfan, 07 February 2018 - 02:05 PM.


#107 Vanimal46

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:18 PM

Baseball Prospectus released their Top 100 Prospect List

 

Twins Rankings: 

Lewis 27

Gordon 35

Romero 97

Edited by Vanimal46, 07 February 2018 - 02:18 PM.


#108 2wins87

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 10:15 AM

Continuing Fangraphs prospect week they are out with their top 100 KATOH projection list.All the caveats of scouting the stat line apply (though their system is much more sophisticated than the average internet commenter).

 

If you aren't familiar with the system just think of it as comparing current prospects to former prospects at similar levels, ages, and approximate statistical profile, and then looking at the range of outcomes and coming out with an average expected WAR over their first 6 years in the majors.

 

Twins rankings:

Granite - 6 (10.4 WAR)

Lewis - 23 (7.6 WAR)

Garver - 32 (6.7 WAR)

Wade - 40 (5.7 WAR)

Gonsalves 66 (4.7 WAR)

Littell 96 (4.1 WAR)

 

It's interesting how bullish it is on Granite still, especially since he's accrued enough time in the upper minors and MLB level to be projected by other MLB systems, and none of them are particularly bullish on him for next year.I was also surprised to see Lewis so high, since there is a huge range of outcomes for guys at the lower levels.Clearly his strong performance along with aggressive promotions puts him in the company of some very good former prospects.

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#109 ashburyjohn

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 10:25 AM

Twins rankings:

Granite - 6 (10.4 WAR)

Wow. Sell high on him, if some other team is willing to part with a legitimate MLB-ready and controllable starting pitcher with Granite as the centerpiece. I like Granite, a lot - as a fourth outfielder. But he hasn't got the arm to excel in CF, and hasn't got the power to excel at a corner, making him a 3-tool player if he comes through, and is thus expendable in return for something else good at a position of need.

 

C'mon, Tampa, your Brent Honeywell is ranked way below Granite - what else are you willing to throw in to sweeten the deal for us? :)

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#110 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 10:34 AM

Do you mean that taking Lewis allowed them to offer higher bonuses with their other picks. I agree with that, but the total number of picks would have been the same no matter who they took first overall.


Correct in that the the number of players picked is the same, but I see them as a team that continually is trading back (a la NFL draft). With the manipulation of the draft pool, using international pool $ to acquire prospects, etc, I see them behaving in a consistent manner here.

But its not just that. It’s the specific type of player they are looking for. They appear to be going after specific traits (pitchers with a good breaking pitch, for example).

Look at the last two drafts for example and how many of these guys are in the twins top 20 prospect lists already. They are drafting high upside guys all over, because whether it is an Akil Badoo or a safer college arm, the bust rates in the middle rounds are about the same. The difference is some of these upside guys are starting to hit and they have selected and acquired more of them lately than the Ryan regime did.

Lastly, the acquisitions they have made for MLB-ready guys have been solid. Enns, Littel and a few others have been good acquisitions, IMO, because there is still some upside there.

#111 prouster

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 11:47 AM

Correct in that the the number of players picked is the same, but I see them as a team that continually is trading back (a la NFL draft). With the manipulation of the draft pool, using international pool $ to acquire prospects, etc, I see them behaving in a consistent manner here.

But its not just that. It’s the specific type of player they are looking for. They appear to be going after specific traits (pitchers with a good breaking pitch, for example).

Look at the last two drafts for example and how many of these guys are in the twins top 20 prospect lists already. They are drafting high upside guys all over, because whether it is an Akil Badoo or a safer college arm, the bust rates in the middle rounds are about the same. The difference is some of these upside guys are starting to hit and they have selected and acquired more of them lately than the Ryan regime did.

Lastly, the acquisitions they have made for MLB-ready guys have been solid. Enns, Littel and a few others have been good acquisitions, IMO, because there is still some upside there.


Right. The actual number of prospects is the same, but the number of high(ish) upside prospects is probably greater due to manipulating bonuses.

#112 70charger

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:53 PM

 

Junot Diaz is an amazing speaker on almost any topic (ridiculously smart, insightful and even just casually profound) and an even better writer. Everything he writes is amazing, but Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao is his magnum opus.If you want a small taste, try this zombie short story he wrote for the New Yorker. It isn't his usual subject matter, but his style is unmistakable: https://www.newyorke...2/06/04/monstro

 

Funny, I'm reading Vargas Llosa's Feast of the Goat right now, and I keep thinking how it would have been helpful to have had this background when reading Junot Diaz. Oscar Wao is probably my favorite, but I hav a soft spot in my heart for This is How You Lose Her, recommended to me by a woman that I did, in fact, lose. Oh well. Time heals and all that. 

 

So how about that Brent Rooker, huh?

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#113 markos

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 08:29 PM

 

It's interesting how bullish it is on Granite still, especially since he's accrued enough time in the upper minors and MLB level to be projected by other MLB systems, and none of them are particularly bullish on him for next year.  

They are more bullish than you think. Steamer is projecting 0.3 WAR in 146 PAs. For a full season, that is 1.2 WAR. Repeating that over the next six seasons is ~7.7 WAR. PECOTA is even more optimistic: 0.5 WAR in 141 PAs, or 2.5 WAR over a full season. Frankly, I'm skeptical that Granite will actually hit with enough strength to make his high-contact game work in the big leagues. But all of the projection systems are picking up on the same signals; namely, Granite should make a lot of contact, get on base, run the bases well, and play a plus defense in centerfield. 

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#114 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 February 2018 - 09:52 AM

 

They are more bullish than you think. Steamer is projecting 0.3 WAR in 146 PAs. For a full season, that is 1.2 WAR. Repeating that over the next six seasons is ~7.7 WAR. PECOTA is even more optimistic: 0.5 WAR in 141 PAs, or 2.5 WAR over a full season. Frankly, I'm skeptical that Granite will actually hit with enough strength to make his high-contact game work in the big leagues. But all of the projection systems are picking up on the same signals; namely, Granite should make a lot of contact, get on base, run the bases well, and play a plus defense in centerfield. 

 

Makes you wonder if they should be dealing from their OF "excess" for pitching (hopefully with more success than the Span trade....)

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#115 2wins87

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Posted 09 February 2018 - 10:33 AM

 

They are more bullish than you think. Steamer is projecting 0.3 WAR in 146 PAs. For a full season, that is 1.2 WAR. Repeating that over the next six seasons is ~7.7 WAR. PECOTA is even more optimistic: 0.5 WAR in 141 PAs, or 2.5 WAR over a full season. Frankly, I'm skeptical that Granite will actually hit with enough strength to make his high-contact game work in the big leagues. But all of the projection systems are picking up on the same signals; namely, Granite should make a lot of contact, get on base, run the bases well, and play a plus defense in centerfield. 

 

I guess you're right.I just remembered his projected batting line being lower than those for Garver and Wade.But Steamer actually doesn't project his defense or baserunning to be all that great, which seems wrong, probably just because it's conservative on those for guys without much MLB data.If you adjust them upward a bit, which seems reasonable, his projection actually looks pretty good.


#116 dbminn

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Posted 09 February 2018 - 11:08 AM

 

Junot Diaz is an amazing speaker on almost any topic (ridiculously smart, insightful and even just casually profound) and an even better writer. Everything he writes is amazing, but Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao is his magnum opus.If you want a small taste, try this zombie short story he wrote for the New Yorker. It isn't his usual subject matter, but his style is unmistakable: https://www.newyorke...2/06/04/monstro

 

Thanks for the link! I'll read this weekend.


#117 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 February 2018 - 11:13 AM

some serious Granite love:

 

https://www.fangraph...all-katoh-team/

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#118 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 February 2018 - 11:25 AM

 

Makes you wonder if they should be dealing from their OF "excess" for pitching (hopefully with more success than the Span trade....)

 

 

I was just thinking this, but then remembered the painful lesson the Span/Revere/Hicks trades taught us. Which is you better have at least one 4th OF who isn't a drastic fall-off from your starters. Personally, I don't think we have an OF surplus right now. Granite is not that player, nor are Grossman, Garver or Adrianza of course. So unless Rooker or Wade explode onto the scene, I'm not trading off anyone.


#119 Twins33

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Posted 09 February 2018 - 11:45 AM

I was just thinking this, but then remembered the painful lesson the Span/Revere/Hicks trades taught us. Which is you better have at least one 4th OF who isn't a drastic fall-off from your starters. Personally, I don't think we have an OF surplus right now. Granite is not that player, nor are Grossman, Garver or Adrianza of course. So unless Rooker or Wade explode onto the scene, I'm not trading off anyone.

I would normally agree, but the SP depth of quality pitchers is less than the OF (meaning right now we have three quality OF out of three positions and only two quality SP out of five positions). OF is easier to plug and already better off.


As of right now, the Twins actually need two quality pitchers, one better than both Santana and Berrios and one about equal to them or just a tick down. They're already worse off in the SP department than they are the OF. I do understand the hesitation because of the players you mentioned though.

Remove an OF and add one of those pitchers and you could either consider them equal problems or say that SP is still the bigger problem because it's a more important position. The Twins can have all the offense/position players in the world and if their pitching remains in the bottom 10 having all that offense means basically nothing. The Twins need much better pitching to compete with the Indians, Yankees, Astros, Dodgers etc. if they don't get that, then what are they even doing?

I'm a sign Darvish first type of person because it's just money, but I would give up an OF (not Buxton) for the right pitcher. It wouldn't be a horrible thing to do both. And this 2018 Twins team is a lot better than the Twins team that trade Span/Revere/Hicks.

Edited by Twins33, 09 February 2018 - 12:03 PM.


#120 Mike Sixel

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Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:30 PM

Shep: Thoughts on Katoh darling, Zach Granite

12:47
Kiley McDaniel: Talked about it on Effectively Wild. Zero power, plus contact/plate discipline, solid extra guy but limited upside.

’re Going Streaming: Kirilloff made your top 100 list after missing the entire season. What do you like about him?

12:50
Kiley McDaniel: Love the feel for hitting and above average tools, has performed and is a cold weather guy (usually a little more in the tank)

https://www.fangraph...l-chat-2-14-18/

Edited by Mike Sixel, 15 February 2018 - 05:31 PM.

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.