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Article: What's Next For Kohl Stewart?

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#21 laloesch

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 08:59 AM

 

Jay stings a lot more in my mind. The 2013 first round was really a terrible draft, even if they nailed that pick (with what was left after Bryant and Gray), it's not even clear they would have gotten a clear starting caliber player.

 

A lot more talent in the 2015 draft, including two really good college bats taken in the 3 picks right after Jay.

 

I agree.They were trying to ram a square peg into a round hole saying they were going to convert him back into a starter.Should have gone with a college bat here.Still disappointed though that the Twins gave up on him so quickly as a starter.


#22 gunnarthor

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 09:09 AM

 

He can't get anybody out in AA that's not good.This pick and the Tyler Jay pick sting A LOT.  

Actually, he's gotten quite a few guys out in AA. In 32 starts at age 21 and 22 he's gone 14-12 with a 3.51 era in 169 ip. But 89 walks against 99 strike outs and 19 wild pitches so control is a big problem. 

 

I would have protected him since he's only 22 and made a spot start in AAA already. We'll see what happens.


#23 Winston Smith

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 09:12 AM

Can he row a boat?

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#24 laloesch

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 09:23 AM

 

Actually, he's gotten quite a few guys out in AA. In 32 starts at age 21 and 22 he's gone 14-12 with a 3.51 era in 169 ip. But 89 walks against 99 strike outs and 19 wild pitches so control is a big problem. 

 

I would have protected him since he's only 22 and made a spot start in AAA already. We'll see what happens.

 

I probably would have protected Reed, Stewart and Jay for one more year.


#25 drjim

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 09:53 AM

 

I agree.They were trying to ram a square peg into a round hole saying they were going to convert him back into a starter.Should have gone with a college bat here.Still disappointed though that the Twins gave up on him so quickly as a starter.

 

The whole Jay process was a fiasco on multiple levels. They will redeem the situation a little if he can stay healthy and turn into a good bullpen piece. But that is two big "ifs" that need to be cleared.

 

Stewart's result comes with the risk of trying to go really big on a high school arm. (And more proof that taking a pitcher in the first 10 picks is almost always a bad decision).

Papers...business papers.

#26 Brandon

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 10:53 AM

i would have protected atleast 2 mire players. and i feel justified to question the front office for that too.
we can debate who, but we still have the opportunity to trade these guys too.

#27 DocBauer

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 02:22 PM

He is young enough and talented enough with enough stuff I hope he sticks around. Another year, at least starting at AA, hopefully healthy, and the fundamental changes the new FO is attempting to make could offer the promise yet if unlocking his potential.

That being said, were I another team, I'd have to be awfully intrigued by him to select him. Just not sure how you stash a AA pitcher coming off a mediocre season with average to poor SO numbers. You'd have to be a lretty "bad" team to feel comfortable taking a flyer on him and having him take a roster spot just so you could...more than likely...send him back to AAA in 2019.

Just a bunch, but I think he is still a Twin after the draft.

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#28 Dman

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 02:38 PM

 

He is young enough and talented enough with enough stuff I hope he sticks around. Another year, at least starting at AA, hopefully healthy, and the fundamental changes the new FO is attempting to make could offer the promise yet if unlocking his potential.

That being said, were I another team, I'd have to be awfully intrigued by him to select him. Just not sure how you stash a AA pitcher coming off a mediocre season with average to poor SO numbers. You'd have to be a lretty "bad" team to feel comfortable taking a flyer on him and having him take a roster spot just so you could...more than likely...send him back to AAA in 2019.

Just a bunch, but I think he is still a Twin after the draft.

Yeah Kohl is a guy where you would have to ignore the numbers and believe you can fix him if you want to take him in the rule V draft.He is young enough to make it tempting though.Will be interesting to see how it plays out.


#29 Deduno Abides

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 02:41 PM

The whole Jay process was a fiasco on multiple levels. They will redeem the situation a little if he can stay healthy and turn into a good bullpen piece. But that is two big "ifs" that need to be cleared.
 
Stewart's result comes with the risk of trying to go really big on a high school arm. (And more proof that taking a pitcher in the first 10 picks is almost always a bad decision).


If you avoid taking pitchers high in the first round, you won’t get pitchers like Price, Verlander, Strasburg and Kershaw, so that might not be a good rule of thumb. To me, what the results from the Jay and Stewart picks (and the flame-outs of so many other highly drafted pitchers) show is (i) the folly of the strategy of drafting relievers with the idea of converting them to starters, which works about as often as the strategy of converting 280 pound infielders into outfielders after they get to the majors; and (ii) the importance of a sophisticated and coordinated pitcher-development program, which is a lot more than just getting good arms and giving them opportunities.
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#30 Rosterman

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 02:53 PM

Basically, the Twins didn't see him capable of contributing in the 2018 season at this point. A lot of the arms were give this looksee by the new management, and the other reality is WHY do you protect a lot of bullpen arms (maybe Jake Reed should've been the exception) if "failed" starters can be just as valuable out of the pen. What it kinda shows is that current powers-that-be kinda disagree with the direction the former regime took in drafting relief pitchers.

 

Stewart will need to prove himself out of the gate at AA ball to see if he can get a callup, at some point, to AAA. But in the scheme of things, he stats behind Jorge, Romero, Gonsalves, Thorpe and Littell. And there are a couple of other names that may pass him.

 

If no one claims him, he has to show life or go thru the whole process again. Another team MIGHT just draft him because of the investment the Twins made. But you do have to weigh him against any and all other Rule 5 choices out there. The decision is someone worth holding onto in a re-build process, or someone who has a better chance of cracking the major league roster in 2018, if not 2019 fer sure.

 

My only complaint in all of this is that the guys THE TWINS DIDN'T PROTECT were all valuable tradechips during the summer, then...and how many could've been packaged for, say, a Verlander...instead of placing them in minor league limbo and destroying their trade value as any team can grab them for the Rule 5? Of course, some do have trade value if another team thinks a lowly team may snatch them, and they want them and have the 40-man space.

 

Wasn't it just yesterday that the Twins future bullpen looked to be Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, Burdi, maybe Zack Jones, possibly Mike Cederoth...and di I leave out a prospect name or two? Was going to be hard-throwing, strikeout heavy crew, too. Instead, we have...Hildenberger, Curtiss. Moya, Busenitz, Hackimer, Jay and possibly one of the Anderson guys.

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#31 drjim

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 03:01 PM

 

If you avoid taking pitchers high in the first round, you won’t get pitchers like Price, Verlander, Strasburg and Kershaw, so that might not be a good rule of thumb. To me, what the results from the Jay and Stewart picks (and the flame-outs of so many other highly drafted pitchers) show is (i) the folly of the strategy of drafting relievers with the idea of converting them to starters, which works about as often as the strategy of converting 280 pound infielders into outfielders after they get to the majors; and (ii) the importance of a sophisticated and coordinated pitcher-development program, which is a lot more than just getting good arms and giving them opportunities.

 

I would say the one exception I would make would be a clearly ready college arm - Price and Strasburg were about as surefire as you can get, Verlander quite close too.

 

Kershaw, like he is in many ways, is an exception to a rule. And even he was a #7 pick. What's interesting too, is that 5 college arms were selected before him that year and none stuck as a starter (though a couple became good relievers). The college bat taken ahead was Longoria.

Papers...business papers.

#32 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 03:03 PM

While Kohl Stewart does have the potential too be a regrettable loss, we left him of the 40-man for a reason. And it would plain stupid to just let him go through the Rule 5 Draft. He's a 1st rounder!!! Whose stock hasn't taken too big of a hit. Hopefully all this means is that Falvine is planning to deal Stewart like the A's dealt Jaycob Brugman to Orioles (MLBTR). In the same MLBTR article, it was also mentioned that the Twins are exploring trades for relievers such as Raisel Iglesias, Brad Hand, Alex Colome, and Justin Wilson.

 

Although I've said this many times, I still believe that Brad Hand would be the best option for the Twins, and would fit perfectly in our bullpen (another lefty besides Rogers) and Minnesota (hometown is Chaska). In the comment section of the MLBTR article it's mentioned many times that Nick Gordon would probably be the center piece in a deal for any of those 4 relievers.So I believe a package of Gordon, Stewart, and Felix Jorge would be an offer that San Diego would find hard to refuse be they are in dire need of a SS and needs young starting pitching (like every other team in the league).


#33 Deduno Abides

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 03:52 PM

I would say the one exception I would make would be a clearly ready college arm - Price and Strasburg were about as surefire as you can get, Verlander quite close too.
 
Kershaw, like he is in many ways, is an exception to a rule. And even he was a #7 pick. What's interesting too, is that 5 college arms were selected before him that year and none stuck as a starter (though a couple became good relievers). The college bat taken ahead was Longoria.


It does seem that college pitchers generally have done better than HS, but it’s hard to draw a firm rule. Bumgarner was pick #10 out of high school. Lots of college pitchers have been bad, also, including Mark Appel. If there’s any pattern that I’ve noticed, it’s that it’s bad to be a pitcher selected by the Orioles. Other than that, with all the changes happening in scouting and development, I wouldn’t draw rules about drafting based on data more than a few years old and recent data is a lot of SSS.

#34 sploorp

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 05:39 PM

Is it possible the team is planning to trade Stewart and that's why they didn't protect him?


#35 ashburyjohn

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 06:01 PM

My only complaint in all of this is that the guys THE TWINS DIDN'T PROTECT were all valuable tradechips during the summer

A Kohl Stewart thread isn't really the place to debate a bigger-picture thing like this, but I think you've said it before, and I don't understand why. Other teams can see the 40-man dilemma approaching for such players, just as we can.

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#36 gman

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 08:21 PM

I hope we are coming to the end of 30 years of failed pitching development, which starts with who you draft.


#37 dgwills

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 08:27 PM

I felt like Stewart had to have a big year in 2016 to regain his prospect status. It's been 2 years and he has slightly improved. He's a bust and has been for a while. If he wasn't a top pick he wouldn't of even been hardly mentioned by any of us.

Not that I don't wish him well and all, but I can't really see any reason to add him to the 40 man roster at this time. Seems like a good decision by the front office. What's the saying in poker? Don't throw good money after bad money.

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#38 beckmt

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 08:07 AM

I like the new direction and wish Kohl Stewart well whether it be with the Twins or another club.Twins have changed from pretenders to contenders, and with this change the Twins need major league ready talent.None of the players left off are regarded as sure things, so you take the chance.Only downside will be if the Twins do not spend money this winter to improve the club and fill those holes. Players like Slegers were regarded closer to helping the big team than Stewart.We may disagree, but I do not mind this direction.


#39 laloesch

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 08:29 AM

I hope we are coming to the end of 30 years of failed pitching development, which starts with who you draft.


One can only hope. They have a lot riding on Leach and Enlow but it will be several seasons before they know what these guys will end up being. Cautiously optimistic.

Edited by laloesch, 23 November 2017 - 08:44 AM.


#40 IaFan1

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 09:48 AM

What your looking at is a second coming of Todd Ritchie. Another Texas high schooler who was overhyped and drafted number one by the Twins. Todd couldn't strike anyone out either (5.6/9). When the Twins gave up on him he actually went to a bad Pittsburgh team and won 15 games. The next year the league pretty much had him figured out. But he did parlay that into about 7 million dollars. I'm not going to lose any sleep over losing Kohl Stewart.