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Article: Falvine Ready To Flex Muscles

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#21 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 11:42 AM

The Kintzler trade to me is the head scatcher. I'm not sure why the Twins continue to deal with the Nationals.

It depends on how they use the international bonus slot money that was part of the deal. It's the new PTBNL. :)

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#22 USAFChief

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 11:57 AM

In a very short period of time.

They showed me that they are willing to support a team worth supporting and willing to rebuild a team worth rebuilding.

After the year after year of my foot has fallen asleep trade deadlines under Terry Ryan and staff.

How this can be seen by anyone as anything other than refreshing is beyond me.

changing their minds, in less than a week, doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. At least to me.

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#23 KirbyDome89

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 12:01 PM

 

How so? The Twins weren't particularly good in the second half of the season, the rest of the league was just... bad. The Twins had a very good August but weren't exactly lighting the world on fire in September, playing .500 ball for the month.

 

A couple of hot streaks by breakout players fueled that modest run in August but let's not pretend that the Twins were some excellent team and the front office completely missed on the talent that was just waiting to break out in the fifth month of the season.

 

The front office hedged their bets and were wrong because one can't predict random players like Escobar going ape**** or that Buxton would finally figure it out.

 

These things happen with young teams and you can't predict when or where they will happen. 

There was no excuse for putting together the bullpen they did to start the season. The Haley experiment magnified that issue & created a completely unnecessary roster crunch. The Garcia double switch was basically a wash but the Kintzler trade didn't make a ton of sense based on the return; even with the team trending down. 

 

You can't knock them for not seeing a WC birth, but part of the job is setting up the team to compete when young players like Buxton do ascend. That side has been lacking, hopefully this offseason is a change. 

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#24 SDTwinsFan

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 12:06 PM

changing their minds, in less than a week, doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. At least to me.


I can understand the thinking that wavering on plan can be concerning, but I see it differently:

1. The FO made a decision to go get the Twins some pitching help. Made the trade to grab Garcia. Cost them a low level prospect.
2. The Twins looked awful after the trade.
3. The FO made another decision to sell. They didn’t waste any time. Made multiple trades.

The bonus here is that by “buying” prospects from the Yankees, the FO showed that ownership is willing to work with them and provide some $$$ if they have a plan. That is incredibly exciting IMO.

Things may not work out this offseason, but the fact that the FO made multiple deals, AND the Twins still made it to the post season has me happy with what took place at the deadline.
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#25 Riverbrian

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 01:07 PM

 

changing their minds, in less than a week, doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. At least to me.

 

Yeah but that's only because of that time your wife talked you into 37 for a Power Ball Number when your heart was screaming 29.

 

As a result... when you go out with your wife to Chili's for Supper. You decide that you will have the Guacamole Burger around 3PM and you start looking forward to it. 

 

You finally get to Chili's with your lovely wife and the server tells you about the Endless Mix and Match Ribs special for less than the price of the Guacamole Burger. You look around the restaurant and you see incredible looking ribs everywhere and you almost order them... but then you remember the Power Ball number thing and you decide that it is best to stay with the original plan through hell or high water and you order the Guacamole Burger that you have been looking forward to for the past 3 hours.  

 

The burger ends up being OK but your wife was making multiple "These are delicious comments" while enjoying the endless ribs. 

 

You could have had those ribs but the Power Ball number ended up being 28 and 29 would have been damn close.  

 

 

 

I give them credit... It takes a special kind of pluck to change your mind out of necessity in front of many people who will claim a lack of confidence because of the indecision.  

 

Those who can't change their minds... can't change anything. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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#26 SDTwinsFan

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 01:19 PM

I give them credit... It takes a special kind of pluck to change your mind out of necessity in front of many people who will claim a lack of confidence because of the indecision.

Those who can't change their minds... can't change anything.


This is a much better way of saying what I was trying to say 😃
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#27 jimmer

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 01:26 PM

 

I give them credit... It takes a special kind of pluck to change your mind out of necessity in front of many people who will claim a lack of confidence because of the indecision.  

 

Those who can't change their minds... can't change anything. 

Couldn't agree more.

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#28 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 02:04 PM

You could have had those ribs but the Power Ball number ended up being 28 and 29 would have been damn close.

Whew, for a moment there I was worried this story wasn't leading anywhere.

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#29 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 02:08 PM

changing their minds, in less than a week, doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. At least to me.

I think I get where you're coming from. Vacillation will blow leadership credibility in a hurry. That's important in any organization, and I suppose especially so in a sports org.

 

Even though I just got done explaining why I was OK with the trading deadline about-face, as an interesting case-study in Analytics, I recognize you can't do that very many times.

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#30 USAFChief

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 04:01 PM

I think I get where you're coming from. Vacillation will blow leadership credibility in a hurry. That's important in any organization, and I suppose especially so in a sports org.

Even though I just got done explaining why I was OK with the trading deadline about-face, as an interesting case-study in Analytics, I recognize you can't do that very many times.

It's as simple as, a team doesn't go from in contention, to not in contention, in 6 days in the middle of the season.

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#31 sploorp

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 04:29 PM

 

Well said. This is the first time in a long time that I am truly intrigued by the offseason and the front office.  Falvine have shown, albeit in a small sample size, to be very forward thinking and willing to take risks. Great to see.

I'm stoked.I find myself checking MLB Trade Rumors several times a day just in case something starts to break.

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#32 sploorp

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 04:34 PM

 

Losing Jaime Garcia for the rest of 2017 was more than made up by Bartolo Colon.

I know others may laugh and point and mock, but there is a part of me that would love to see Colon come back.Maybe as a long reliever with an occasional spot start?

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#33 RaymondLuxuryYacht

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 04:59 PM

 

It's as simple as, a team doesn't go from in contention, to not in contention, in 6 days in the middle of the season.

maybe there are more data points that go into the decision other than contention

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#34 drjim

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 05:53 PM

It's as simple as, a team doesn't go from in contention, to not in contention, in 6 days in the middle of the season.


It was a strange sequence of decisions. They hit a moment of truth and waffled and punted. Made Terry Ryan look committed and decisive!
Papers...business papers.

#35 DocBauer

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:22 PM

It depends on how they use the international bonus slot money that was part of the deal. It's the new PTBNL. :)


Or the new Brian Duensing.
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#36 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:31 PM

It's as simple as, a team doesn't go from in contention, to not in contention, in 6 days in the middle of the season.

maybe there are more data points that go into the decision other than contention

Also, the term "contention" is a fuzzy one. A great many arguments arise from people assigning different meanings to words. Maybe Falvey and Levine had in mind some threshold, like 10% odds of reaching the post-season, and decided to make a middling move such as for Garcia. A mere 6 days later, the same calculation looked more like 4% to them, and they went with their convictions.

 

Chief likes Texas Hold 'Em. I'm sure he's had plenty of hands where his first two cards were worth betting but then he rightly folded when the flop came down, and then (against the odds) exactly the right turn card came which would have made the hand worth seeing through after all. Unlike poker, baseball doesn't require (or allow) you to completely fold, on the other hand after a certain point not very near the end you can't make meaningful additional bets. But under baseball-like rules, maybe you'd like to re-open that folded poker hand and pay to see the river card. I don't know poker well enough to construct a very good analogy, but that's how I see it. Each card that gets played gives you new information and new odds. That one week in July, five very poor "cards" were revealed to the Twins and they took a little bit out of the pot. It happened that the remaining cards for the rest of the season were a lot better. That's cards; that's baseball.

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#37 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:43 PM

Argh, in poker you don't pay to try to obtain better cards, you pay to go to the next reveal. Not to mention that all players' cards are more or less face up in baseball - no one is wondering "maybe the Twins have Mike Trout". :) So it's not a good analogy, and I give up on that.

 

But the point is the improved information at each reveal and a revised estimate of your chances - that's where there's a similarity, and where there can be a sudden turn for the worse in your calculation of your chances that (later on with hindsight) turns out not to be decisive after all. You still have to make your decision at the time, with much still uncertain. And if the decision at one stage is close, the next card will easily reverse that decision.

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#38 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:54 PM

 

Yeah but that's only because of that time your wife talked you into 37 for a Power Ball Number when your heart was screaming 29.

 

As a result... when you go out with your wife to Chili's for Supper. You decide that you will have the Guacamole Burger around 3PM and you start looking forward to it. 

 

You finally get to Chili's with your lovely wife and the server tells you about the Endless Mix and Match Ribs special for less than the price of the Guacamole Burger. You look around the restaurant and you see incredible looking ribs everywhere and you almost order them... but then you remember the Power Ball number thing and you decide that it is best to stay with the original plan through hell or high water and you order the Guacamole Burger that you have been looking forward to for the past 3 hours.  

 

The burger ends up being OK but your wife was making multiple "These are delicious comments" while enjoying the endless ribs. 

 

You could have had those ribs but the Power Ball number ended up being 28 and 29 would have been damn close.  

 

 

 

I give them credit... It takes a special kind of pluck to change your mind out of necessity in front of many people who will claim a lack of confidence because of the indecision.  

 

Those who can't change their minds... can't change anything. 

 

a normal male would eat a few of his wife's endless ribs when no one is looking... just sayin...

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#39 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:56 PM

Let me fumble through this Texas Holdem poker analogy...

 

After the All Star break, every team got to peek at the flop (difficulty of schedule). The Twins were scheduled to play Houston, the Yankees, and the Dodgers, also Detroit and Oakland. Those are tough cards to play. 

 

But even before peeking at the flop and playing the flop, every team also got a very quick peek at the turn and river and burn cards, too. That is the "difficulty of schedule after the All Star Break trade deadline" cards. Those last two cards looked much more playable for the Twins, and didn't match the hands as well for the other teams. 

 

While the Twins were getting swept against the Dodgers in late July, the Royals were winning 9 straight games against the Tigers and the White Sox.

 

You might say that the Royals win streak bluffed the Twins front office out of the card game. I certainly feel that way. 

Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco, 18 November 2017 - 07:08 PM.

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#40 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 November 2017 - 07:04 PM

But even before peeking at the flop and playing the flop, every team also got a very quick peek at the turn and river and burn cards, too.

I can just see Chief wringing his hands and saying "pleasepleasepleaseplease let me play these guys here for MONEY."

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