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Article: Three Bagger: Darvish, Marte & Otani

shohei otani yu darvish jelfry marte thad levine
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#61 ashburyjohn

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Posted 19 November 2017 - 02:06 PM

Sure, but we're talking about a new front office. My point is that the money is available and it's the front office's decision how to spend that money. The owner controls payroll but generally doesn't get involved with how that payroll is allocated.

I count myself on the optimistic side of this offseason and go along with the first two sentences, but boy, I'm not sure I see this ownership as quite so hands-off where it comes to the contracts we're contemplating here.

 

It's probably a given that any franchise has ownership sign off when the contract is above a certain total value; franchises will vary on what that threshold is, and how close to a rubber stamp the process is.

 

Chances are that our ownership has a relatively low threshold, and that they look through the due-diligence in very careful detail.

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#62 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 November 2017 - 02:10 PM

 

I count myself on the optimistic side of this offseason and go along with the first two sentences, but boy, I'm not sure I see this ownership as quite so hands-off.

 

It's probably a given that any franchise has ownership sign off when the contract is above a certain total value; franchises will vary on what that threshold is, and how close to a rubber stamp the process is.

 

Chances are that our ownership has a relatively low threshold, and that they look through the due-diligence in very careful detail.

I'm sure they have final yay/nay input but I haven't seen any evidence they really get involved with contractual matters.

 

They better not if they want to field a winning baseball team. Leave the roster decisions to the people who know how to build rosters. Of course, if there's a PR conflict of some kind, then maybe you get involved but that's not the case here.

 

Anyway, I'd put the Twins chances of signing Darvish very low but I don't think the Pohlads will be the people making that decision. It'll likely come from Falvey and Levine, as it should.

 

But, for all we know, they have zero interest in actually signing Darvish. We really have no baseline for how those two plan to operate a baseball franchise. We can evaluate their Cleveland/Texas moves but even then, we don't know which decisions were theirs and which came from their bosses.


#63 ashburyjohn

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Posted 19 November 2017 - 02:31 PM

but I haven't seen any evidence they really get involved with contractual matters.

As with any well-functioning organization. :)

 

I doubt either of us could muster evidence really demonstrating either way. This organization has always been good at keeping rumors to a minimum.

 

I don't imagine any ownership quibbles about payroll allocation over a short term. But when it comes to a contract that might be an albatross for the next GM, if things were to turn sour with the present braintrust, an owner would be remiss if not downright derelict if they operated according to that third sentence I was responding to. A heavily-backloaded contract for instance might get a thumbs down. Especially since the Pohlad family is not renowned for a loosey-goosey attitude about money, as opposed to some ownerships that seem more motivated by sportsman/hobby motivations, I formed my conclusion. YMMV.

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#64 kab21

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Posted 19 November 2017 - 11:00 PM

 

I'm not skeptical because of Park...I'm going further back than that to a guy that was the star in Japan.He was considered the best player in Japan after hitting .346 and leading the league in hits (206) and runs scored (121).He was fast.He was a switch hitter.He was the man in Japan!...and failed miserably for the Minnesota Twins.

 

Yes, he wasn't a pitcher.But DHing might not come so easily for Otani here as Nishioka's .346 equated to .226 over here.I'm skeptical, but might be willing to give it a try.

This is not even remotely close to being true. If you look at ALL of Nishioka's stats then you would see that he was a very good Japanese player that would project as a borderline starter or bench player. And that is what the Twins paid for him. If he was the star that you say he was then they wouldn't have signed him so cheap. 

Otani is an absolute star in the Japanese league. He is possibly the best pitcher that has come to the US. Better than or equal to Darvish, Tanaka or Matsuzaka. Whoever signs him is getting an absolute steal.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#65 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 09:15 AM

 

This is not even remotely close to being true. If you look at ALL of Nishioka's stats then you would see that he was a very good Japanese player that would project as a borderline starter or bench player. And that is what the Twins paid for him. If he was the star that you say he was then they wouldn't have signed him so cheap. 

Otani is an absolute star in the Japanese league. He is possibly the best pitcher that has come to the US. Better than or equal to Darvish, Tanaka or Matsuzaka. Whoever signs him is getting an absolute steal.

Yeah, there was a ton of concern and discussion about Nishioka's ability to play in MLB at all, much less at short.

 

You can look at the year preceding his move to MLB and say he was a great player but you're ignoring how much better he was in that single season than he was previously in his career.


#66 gocgo

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 10:56 AM

 

This is not even remotely close to being true. If you look at ALL of Nishioka's stats then you would see that he was a very good Japanese player that would project as a borderline starter or bench player. And that is what the Twins paid for him. If he was the star that you say he was then they wouldn't have signed him so cheap. 

Otani is an absolute star in the Japanese league. He is possibly the best pitcher that has come to the US. Better than or equal to Darvish, Tanaka or Matsuzaka. Whoever signs him is getting an absolute steal.

I'm not skeptical about the pitching ability so much.It's the hitting part and he wants to play even when he isn't pitching.Can we afford to have a DH for 4 days that can't hit to get a guy who might be a great pitcher every 5th day?Dunno.

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#67 kab21

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 11:03 AM

 

I'm not skeptical about the pitching ability so much.It's the hitting part and he wants to play even when he isn't pitching.Can we afford to have a DH for 4 days that can't hit to get a guy who might be a great pitcher every 5th day?Dunno.

50 games a year doesn't equal 4/5 games. I have doubts about his hitting ability also but I think it is unlikely that he is DH'ing much after 2-3 years so I am willing to put up with the experiment for a year or two if that means landing him for 6 cost controlled seasons.

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Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#68 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 11:37 AM

 

50 games a year doesn't equal 4/5 games. I have doubts about his hitting ability also but I think it is unlikely that he is DH'ing much after 2-3 years so I am willing to put up with the experiment for a year or two if that means landing him for 6 cost controlled seasons.

There are certainly doubts about Ohtani's ability to hit MLB pitching but Nishioka comparisons should be tossed out the window.

 

Nishioka was a slap hitter who played in a league where artificial turf is common.

 

Nishioka came to the US after his age 25 season.

 

Nishioka never hit for power.

 

Nishioka was coming off a season where he OPSed .080 higher than any previous season.

 

I don't see a lot to compare between the two, any more than I'd judge Buxton's ceiling based on Ben Revere's career because they're both black and play centerfield.

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