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Article: Part 5: Seth's Updated Top 50 Twins Prospects (16-20)

john curtiss felix jorge travis blankenhorn jermaine palacios jose miranda
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#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 16 November 2017 - 02:17 PM

 

Blankenhorn started the season red hot.I was almost ready to say they should promote him to the next level and he tapered off and then slumped badly.I'm not sure what to think but I am still high on him.If he figures things out as a hitter they can find a position to play him at. 

 

I think he came in as a Shortstop so he should be able to handle third but I haven't seen him play there.They must like his speed and agility if they are playing him at 2nd.Maybe looking for another Dozier type player because it looks like Blanky has power.I am thinking he might follow the Max Murphy path at a younger age.It seemed like it took Max a bit to hit the offspeed stuff and be more patient at the plate.If he breaks out offensively then he will be a top ten prospect.I am betting on the Blanket tomake it.

 

 

I think consistency is a big thing for players early in their careers. It's a long season. As they develop and work on mechanics and learn themselves and all of that, the goal would be that the consistency would come (preferably good consistency). 

 

Here are his OPS by month...

 

April: .776

May: .604

June: 1.048

July: .449

August: 1.023

 

September: 1.500 (though it was just 8 plate appearances)

 

Of course, these are just monthly break downs and there are probably wilder extremes looking at different start/end dates, but it isn't unusual to see something like this...

 

Also, he played SS in high school - like everyone - but they moved him to 3B/2B right away. I don't think the move to 2B in the 2nd half was anything related to performance. I think it was a planned thing to get him consistent time in both places. The reality is that they still are trying to figure out where he'll play. He's OK at both. 

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#22 Dman

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Posted 16 November 2017 - 02:27 PM

 

I think consistency is a big thing for players early in their careers. It's a long season. As they develop and work on mechanics and learn themselves and all of that, the goal would be that the consistency would come (preferably good consistency). 

 

Here are his OPS by month...

 

April: .776

May: .604

June: 1.048

July: .449

August: 1.023

 

September: 1.500 (though it was just 8 plate appearances)

 

Of course, these are just monthly break downs and there are probably wilder extremes looking at different start/end dates, but it isn't unusual to see something like this...

 

Also, he played SS in high school - like everyone - but they moved him to 3B/2B right away. I don't think the move to 2B in the 2nd half was anything related to performance. I think it was a planned thing to get him consistent time in both places. The reality is that they still are trying to figure out where he'll play. He's OK at both. 

 

I thought April was better than that he must have just had a hot couple of weeks then.


#23 rdehring

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Posted 16 November 2017 - 03:34 PM

 

Correct... I mean, the three Twins minor leaguers who made it from the 2011 draft without getting added to the 40-man roster (hence making it to free agency) are: 

 

Levi Michael, Dereck Rodriguez and David Hurlbut.Rodriguez (especially based on comments received) was probably a stretch at #29. The other two aren't Top 50 guys. Just hard to find trade value, except as toss-ins. 

When I responded above, Seth, I was thinking more of the guys like your second tier of players when you did your Rule 5 article. 

 

Expect the time to have moved them would have been July.Perhaps we will see more moves in the future now that the new young management has settled in.


#24 Eephus

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Posted 17 November 2017 - 07:21 PM

 

I guess I'm confused a bit on Blenkenhorn. He is still pretty young, reportedly a good athlete has some power, and is already being pulled off 3B? Can he just not play the position at all? Is his arm weak? Seems to me with all the various middle infield prospects in the system, why convert a potential 3B to 2B at this time? Or is this just a case of increasing his positional flexibility going forward?

This is maybe echoes of my 1970s baseball card interpretation of how good players were who I didn't know anything about, but there's something about the name Blankenhorn that makes me think: rock solid, no nonsense ballplayer.My not even half-baked theory on why we like Blankenhorn is that his name sounds like an old school ballplayer.

 

Absolutely not trying to cast aspersion on any of the analysis here, but when I see him rated fairly high despite not that solid of numbers I can't help but wonder what his ranking would be if his name was Joe Smith or Jesus Rodriquez.


#25 Thrylos

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Posted 17 November 2017 - 08:17 PM

Curtiss ahead of Moya, Jay, and Burdi?Based on?Ceiling? Floor? Health?Stuff?Potential?Results?

 

No way :)

 

As his 9 games in the majors showed, 0% HR/FB rate and .212 BABIP are not sustainable.He really sucked when he was called up.

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#26 beckmt

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Posted 17 November 2017 - 08:39 PM

 

Curtiss ahead of Moya, Jay, and Burdi?Based on?Ceiling? Floor? Health?Stuff?Potential?Results?

 

No way :)

 

As his 9 games in the majors showed, 0% HR/FB rate and .212 BABIP are not sustainable.He really sucked when he was called up.

This is what we call small sample size.Mike Schmidt did not reach the Mendoza line his first year in the bigs.Do not know how things will turn out, but Seth has contacts where the bulk of us do not.Let's wait and see.


#27 Seth Stohs

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Posted 17 November 2017 - 08:42 PM

 

Curtiss ahead of Moya, Jay, and Burdi?Based on?Ceiling? Floor? Health?Stuff?Potential?Results?

 

No way :)

 

As his 9 games in the majors showed, 0% HR/FB rate and .212 BABIP are not sustainable.He really sucked when he was called up.

 

I think Curtiss can be a closer. I could argue for Jay higher than him. Moya's more of a 7th-8th inning guy. Burdi could be a closer, but obviously with all the injuries, that's my concern. 

 

9 games is not going to affect my thoughts on him. 


#28 Tom Froemming

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Posted 17 November 2017 - 09:02 PM

 

Curtiss ahead of Moya, Jay, and Burdi?Based on?Ceiling? Floor? Health?Stuff?Potential?Results?

 

No way :)

 

As his 9 games in the majors showed, 0% HR/FB rate and .212 BABIP are not sustainable.He really sucked when he was called up.

Really sucked? That's a bit harsh, no? Curtiss' K:BB numbers over that small sample certainly pass the sniff test (10 Ks, 2 BBs in 8.2 IP). He's also is actually younger than Burdi and averaged 95.6 mph on his fastball during his cup of coffee while Moya was at just 91.2 mph.

 

I'm not saying Curtiss is in another class above those three other guys or anything like that, but you make him out to be trash. Seems to me he has a high ceiling, low floor, great results and we're certainly not going to nitpick his health when we're throwing Burdi or Jay into the same conversation, lol. What am I missing here? You must be forecasting more trouble with the longball/too much hard contact.

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#29 Thrylos

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Posted 17 November 2017 - 09:37 PM

 

Really sucked? That's a bit harsh, no? Curtiss' K:BB numbers over that small sample certainly pass the sniff test (10 Ks, 2 BBs in 8.2 IP). He's also is actually younger than Burdi and averaged 95.6 mph on his fastball during his cup of coffee while Moya was at just 91.2 mph.

 

I'm not saying Curtiss is in another class above those three other guys or anything like that, but you make him out to be trash. Seems to me he has a high ceiling, low floor, great results and we're certainly not going to nitpick his health when we're throwing Burdi or Jay into the same conversation, lol. What am I missing here? You must be forecasting more trouble with the longball/too much hard contact.

 

Curtiss is 3 months younger than Burdi, a year older than Jay, and about 21 months older than Moya, to get that out the way :)

 

Could have been the butterflies, or the fact that he was tired, or something, but his slider was horrific in the majors and his fastball was not overwhelming.If you look at his numbers this season across all levels, there are almost identical to Tonkin's (2.33 vs 2.87 ERA, 12.1 vs 12.2 K/9, 3.7 vs 3.6 BB/9) with the exception of WHIP (.966 vs 1.245) which was driven by the differences in BABIP (.238 vs .322.)

 

So I look at Curtiss and I see Tonkin.Or Pressly with slower fastball and the same inconsistency in their breaking stuff that has flashes of filth when they can command it. But they don't usually.

 

That's his ceiling.

 

Burdi throws in the triple digits and has way much better control.No comparison as far as stuff goes, but the health thing is questionable

 

Moya is a little freak who for some reason was extremely effective in the minors (BA named him the best relief pitcher) and was better than Curtiss in the majors.And 2 years younger.He had video game numbers.Does not throw hard, but he throws a good 3-4 mph harder than his bullpen coach in his prime.

 

Jay has Andrew Miller potential and will eventually find his way, if his health keeps up.

 

That's why I was asking about health being one of the concerns here...And still, there is no way that Curtiss could be ranked higher than Moya in the age vs. results equation.

 

 

 

 

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#30 clutterheart

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Posted 19 November 2017 - 06:42 AM

I think Curtiss can be a closer. I could argue for Jay higher than him. Moya's more of a 7th-8th inning guy. Burdi could be a closer, but obviously with all the injuries, that's my concern.

9 games is not going to affect my thoughts on him.


Curtiss could be a decent pro, but boy you seem to put lot of stock in the classic FB/Slider guys with control issues. Moya has good control, a devestating change up, decent curve and enough FB to punish hitters waiting for the change up. His numbers are video game like and I would bet 1 US dollar that he ends his career with more saves than Curtiss. He's already in the lead!



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