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Outside the box Idea: Trade for Giancarlo Stanton

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#21 gunnarthor

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:38 PM

The Pohlad family isn't taking on that kind of contract nor should the Twins mortgage the future on him. This is a pipe dream. Improve pitching. The offense is good and we have solid prospects coming up.

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#22 Deduno Abides

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:59 PM

Yeah, Stanton's contract is a steal to be honest.
That is why he will opt opt out in 3 years.

This is a fun discussion, but no team is taking his contract, especially if they’re trading a bunch of their top prospects. If the Twins were to take his contract, they will not take on any pitchers, except perhaps on Matt Belisle deals, so they will still struggle to win, although they could have a fun offense.

Edited by Deduno Abides, 13 November 2017 - 07:04 PM.

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#23 DaveW

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:27 PM

This is a fun discussion, but no team is taking his contract, especially if they’re trading a bunch of their top prospects. If the Twins were to take his contract, they will not take on any pitchers, except perhaps on Matt Belisle deals, so they will still struggle to win, although they could have a fun offense.


Why wouldn’t they take the contract? Again it’s effectively 3 years
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<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR

#24 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:29 PM

 

I believe fangraphs uses $8 million per WAR when they calculate how much a player is worth. That is the standard I used.

 

What I am trying to ask is Fangraph’s saying that 1 WAR is worth $8M or are they saying the average production from FAs is 1 WAR per $8M. Those are two very different things.It would take a $400M payroll to construct a 98 win team of free agents so I think their calculation is based purely on average production as opposed to value.If this was a measure or worth, Dozier would have been worth $86M over the last two years.

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#25 Deduno Abides

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:48 PM

Why wouldn’t they take the contract? Again it’s effectively 3 years


This has been covered extensively. Here’s an off the top of my head summary.

If Stanton gets hurt or tails off, it’s another $218M or so and could become the biggest albatross in history. If he plays well, as you say, he’ll be gone in three years, so teams are not going to wipe out their systems for that, especially for a player who is clearly below the top tier of players.

Also, if you average his value over the last three years, it’s about $33M. Assuming he continues to perform at that level as he goes past 30, there is little excess value in his contract. Therefore, teams are not going to throw in a lot of value from their systems, unless the Marlins eat a lot of the cost and protect the acquiring team against the downside risk.
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#26 Shaitan

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:58 PM

I feel like any Miami player would take a trade to any other team, just to be free of that franchise.

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#27 Shaitan

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:01 PM

If the Twins were really a now-or-never team I'd consider this, but I think trading all their top prospects guts the system too much. They'd be worse off on defense with Stanton in place of Kepler and worse off on pitching because they'd be out Romero and not have the spending money to add any quality FA pieces.

 

 


#28 Jacksson

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:10 PM

Waste of time an energy to even bring this up. For how long have we heard the moaning and groaning over Joe's contract? What do you think happens when Stanton's performance drops as he ages and/or injuries begin to take their inevitable toll? Whoever gets him will be paying for his performance for the Marlins over the past few years as opposed to his performance for his new team.
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#29 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:31 PM

This is a fun discussion, but no team is taking his contract, especially if they’re trading a bunch of their top prospects. If the Twins were to take his contract, they will not take on any pitchers, except perhaps on Matt Belisle deals, so they will still struggle to win, although they could have a fun offense.


The fun part about discussing sports is that it's rarely abstract. We'll actually get to see who's right, eventually.

Every contract is a risk. If risk was the only factor, we'd never see big contracts handed out. It only takes one team to think his next 3 years will be more like 2017 than 2016 or 15.

#30 Sconnie

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:31 PM

This has been covered extensively. Here’s an off the top of my head summary.

If Stanton gets hurt or tails off, it’s another $218M or so and could become the biggest albatross in history. If he plays well, as you say, he’ll be gone in three years, so teams are not going to wipe out their systems for that, especially for a player who is clearly below the top tier of players.

Also, if you average his value over the last three years, it’s about $33M. Assuming he continues to perform at that level as he goes past 30, there is little excess value in his contract. Therefore, teams are not going to throw in a lot of value from their systems, unless the Marlins eat a lot of the cost and protect the acquiring team against the downside risk.

you had me until “clearly below top tier”. There’s too much talk over a “clearly below top tier” player on that gigantic contract with a full no trade clause, that he is not considered by many/most GMs as “top tier”

https://www.fanragsp...y-want-stanton/

He’s 28 and posted a 6.9 fWAR.

#31 amjgt

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:58 PM

Hold on hold on hold on.....

JD Martinez isn't getting 8/200

#32 h2oface

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:14 PM

 

Why wouldn't he (Stanton) want to come here?  

 

Ocean. He has said that he wants to play in a city that is near an ocean. That is one reason.


#33 prouster

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:40 PM

No, that's how it works with past their prime types who are overpaid. The contract is a non issue. What do you think he'd fetch if he were a FA this year? There is your answer.


So the Marlins should expect the same return whether they dump the whole contract on a team or pay it themselves? Alright, then.

#34 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 06:20 AM

So the Marlins should expect the same return whether they dump the whole contract on a team or pay it themselves? Alright, then.


Well no, of course not. But in this case, why would the Marlins pay the contract AND trade him?

#35 prouster

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 08:23 AM

Well no, of course not. But in this case, why would the Marlins pay the contract AND trade him?


I don't think they will. That's why I think whoever gets Stanton will get a slight discount in prospects.

#36 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 08:32 AM

 

you had me until “clearly below top tier”. There’s too much talk over a “clearly below top tier” player on that gigantic contract with a full no trade clause, that he is not considered by many/most GMs as “top tier”

https://www.fanragsp...y-want-stanton/

He’s 28 and posted a 6.9 fWAR.

 

Joe Mauer posted a 7.6 fWAR in 2009 and singed an 8 year extension.His average WARB for the past 7 years of that extension is 1.9 and 1.25 for the last 4 years.

 

Albert Pujlos signed a similar contract in 2011 having averaged 7.28 fWAR over the previous 6 years.Since then he has a total of 7.6 over the course of six seasons.Last year he was -2 fWAR and they still have 4 years to go on that contract.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury is very similar to Mauer’s contract and he has averaged almost identical fWAR to Mauer and he has 3 years remaining in which he will decline substantially if his production is typical of other aging players.

 

Mark Teixeria averaged 3.9 the first 4 years of his 8 year deal and a total of 2.7 the last 4 years. (.675 fWAR/yr) So, he was not as good as Dozier for 4 years and then replacement level for 4 years.

Ryan Howard’s extension was only 5 years but the Phillies ended up paying $125M for a negative fWAR (-2.3) and his best season during the extension was .4 fWAR

 

Josh Hamilton got $123M for 3.4 fWAR.That’s 36M per fWAR and these deals are why the average cost per fWAR is $8M.

 

ARod got $275M for 21.8 fWAR or $12.6M per fWAR so his deal was not so bad compared those mentioned above. 

 

Stanton might be good for several more years but history has shown that a very high percentage of these 7+ year deals to be an enormous bust.If you are the Yankees or Dodgers you can have 3 deals like this bust and still have the Twins payroll left over.I really can’t think of one off the top of my head that has panned out well.It makes a lot more sense to me to extend our young guys until they are 30-32.It’s a lot less risky to pony up a little extra during their arbitration years for a couple more prime years than to pay these guys huge money well past their prime.

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#37 drjim

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 09:35 AM

Some Buster Olney perspective:

 

Papers...business papers.

#38 gman

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 10:13 AM

Obviously the trade for the Twins would not only be the top prospects cost but the current rostered players they couldn't or wouldn't sign while paying his contract. I agree with other posters who also have concluded that this is not necessarily the Twins window time.


#39 kab21

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 10:19 AM

 

Joe Mauer posted a 7.6 fWAR in 2009 and singed an 8 year extension.His average WARB for the past 7 years of that extension is 1.9 and 1.25 for the last 4 years.

 

Albert Pujlos signed a similar contract in 2011 having averaged 7.28 fWAR over the previous 6 years.Since then he has a total of 7.6 over the course of six seasons.Last year he was -2 fWAR and they still have 4 years to go on that contract.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury is very similar to Mauer’s contract and he has averaged almost identical fWAR to Mauer and he has 3 years remaining in which he will decline substantially if his production is typical of other aging players.

 

Mark Teixeria averaged 3.9 the first 4 years of his 8 year deal and a total of 2.7 the last 4 years. (.675 fWAR/yr) So, he was not as good as Dozier for 4 years and then replacement level for 4 years.

Ryan Howard’s extension was only 5 years but the Phillies ended up paying $125M for a negative fWAR (-2.3) and his best season during the extension was .4 fWAR

 

Josh Hamilton got $123M for 3.4 fWAR.That’s 36M per fWAR and these deals are why the average cost per fWAR is $8M.

 

ARod got $275M for 21.8 fWAR or $12.6M per fWAR so his deal was not so bad compared those mentioned above. 

 

Stanton might be good for several more years but history has shown that a very high percentage of these 7+ year deals to be an enormous bust.If you are the Yankees or Dodgers you can have 3 deals like this bust and still have the Twins payroll left over.I really can’t think of one off the top of my head that has panned out well.It makes a lot more sense to me to extend our young guys until they are 30-32.It’s a lot less risky to pony up a little extra during their arbitration years for a couple more prime years than to pay these guys huge money well past their prime.

Except Stanton signed his deal at age 26 and is 28 right now.

 

Pujols was 32 when he signed his contract.

Tex 29 

Mauer 28 (but those are catcher years)

Ellsbury 31

Hamilton 32

Howard 33

ARod 33

 

I think very few of these are comparisons for or against Stanton due to age and also sustained performance level prior to the massive contract.

Imo anyone making an argument against getting Stanton is crazy. He is an elite player. A no doubter although I guess some will debate that. If the Twins could get him without giving up Sano or Berrios then sign me up. Of course there are concerns like the injury history (fastballs to the face) and 10 more years of guaranteed money with an opt out.

 

 

 

 

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Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#40 gocgo

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 10:35 AM

But if you are Miami, aren't you thinking the same thing?....our window (with Stanton) is now!Go get the parts to fill in around him.

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