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Article: The 5 Best Pitching Gambles In Free Agency

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#41 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 08:38 AM

 

I'm sure people would've been saying the same type of stuff last year about Charlie Morton if he was listed as a buy-low target. How'd that work out for Houston?

Or Scott Kazmir. Or Jake Arrieta. Those kind of rebound/breakout pitchers aren't terribly uncommon, the trick is identifying them.

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#42 ashburyjohn

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 10:16 AM

The five pitchers listed are all too expensive, in terms of 40-man space and especially 25-man space. That's the constraining resource, not money, at this time in the rebuild.

 

Guys who are willing to take a MiLB contract, sure.

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#43 drjim

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 12:49 PM

The five pitchers listed are all too expensive, in terms of 40-man space and especially 25-man space. That's the constraining resource, not money, at this time in the rebuild.

Guys who are willing to take a MiLB contract, sure.


The rebuild is over. These guys buy depth and potential upside to help compete this year.

This strikes me as exactly the popation of pitchers that a little deeper analytics could find a guy they want to take a shot on.

A marginal 40 man guy should not block that.
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#44 drjim

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 12:51 PM

Twins only have 3 starters locked in right now, and even one of those (Gibson) should be relatively loose in his grip.
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#45 laloesch

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 01:16 PM

 

The rebuild is over. These guys buy depth and potential upside to help compete this year.

This strikes me as exactly the popation of pitchers that a little deeper analytics could find a guy they want to take a shot on.

A marginal 40 man guy should not block that.

 

What do you mean the rebuild is over?This team still needs several starting pitchers including an ace, multiple bullpen arms and perhaps a bench bat or two.I just don't agree.

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#46 drjim

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 01:33 PM

What do you mean the rebuild is over? This team still needs several starting pitchers including an ace, multiple bullpen arms and perhaps a bench bat or two. I just don't agree.


The roster is not complete, but all transactions should prioritize winning now.

That means you can freely dump a fringe 40 man roster prospect for a guy like one of the players listed here who have potential upside this season.
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#47 USAFChief

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 01:46 PM

 

The roster is not complete, but all transactions should prioritize winning now.

That means you can freely dump a fringe 40 man roster prospect for a guy like one of the players listed here who have potential upside this season.

I'd say that DURING a rebuild, you can afford to waste a 40 man spot or three on a whim, hoping to strike gold with a hit that you can flip in a midseason trade.

 

When you're trying to win, trying to get by on the cheap isn't a very good gamble. 

 

 

 

 

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#48 drjim

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 04:12 PM

I'd say that DURING a rebuild, you can afford to waste a 40 man spot or three on a whim, hoping to strike gold with a hit that you can flip in a midseason trade.

When you're trying to win, trying to get by on the cheap isn't a very good gamble.


I would agree if this is the only pitcher added. But as a second fa on a 1 year deal to take a shot at the 5th starter spot it is potentially a smart gamble. Push everyone else down a spot on the depth chart.
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#49 howieramone2

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 06:13 PM

 

I'd say that DURING a rebuild, you can afford to waste a 40 man spot or three on a whim, hoping to strike gold with a hit that you can flip in a midseason trade.

 

When you're trying to win, trying to get by on the cheap isn't a very good gamble. 

The rebuild is over. Who said they are trying to get by on the cheap? Maybe I'm old fashioned, but I have no problem waiting until the hot stove season is over to decide. Also, when you have a farm system as deep and talented as ours to use as trade bait, why invest heavily in the market of last resort, which is what free agency has evolved into.

Edited by howieramone2, 07 November 2017 - 06:18 PM.

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#50 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 07:56 PM

 

I would agree if this is the only pitcher added. But as a second fa on a 1 year deal to take a shot at the 5th starter spot it is potentially a smart gamble. Push everyone else down a spot on the depth chart.

This is how I feel as well. You won't find a breakout/recovery guy on the cheap if you don't try.

 

But that breakout/recovery guy is not a replacement for signing a legit arm as well.

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#51 hugelycat

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:53 AM

Agree with everyone saying one of these moves would be good as a peripheral move / move in addition to other pitching moves. I think this is where you have to trust your scouting and player evaluation. The key point isn't that these guys were bad, it's why they were bad. Can we figure out what went wrong, and can we fix it? I'm thinking of some of the pitchers who flamed out, then went to the Pirates and turned things around, for example. None of them were stars, but the Pirates' coaching staff were able to make something out of nothing.


#52 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 09:41 AM

 

I would agree if this is the only pitcher added. But as a second fa on a 1 year deal to take a shot at the 5th starter spot it is potentially a smart gamble. Push everyone else down a spot on the depth chart.

 

Our staff needs long-term solutions at this point.This team is never going to be a contender until the starting rotation is solidified and we are a very long way from that point.These one years deals are great fort a pitcher to rebuild his value but unless we get a couple options year these bounce back deals do little to solidify our staff.

 

Go get Cobb and 2 relievers.Start the season with Erv | Berrios | Cobb | Gibson & Mejia.Give Gonsalves | Romero | Littell and maybe even Slegers a chance to win a spot.We need some low cost guys to produce because Erv might not be here next year.Unless we get lucky for once with prospects, we are going to need to replace Erv.The good news is we will have his salary and Mauer's to fund another FA.  

 

I don't want to go into free agency next year wondering about the same SP prospects. If these guys step up, we could use the available dollars on whatever piece we need in terms of position players.If the SP prospects get a chance and fail, it will be clear to the FO and ownership the need to spend in free agency or trade away prospects.

 

Personally, I like Ohtani for the second add to the rotation.:whacky028:


#53 drjim

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 11:55 AM

 

Our staff needs long-term solutions at this point.This team is never going to be a contender until the starting rotation is solidified and we are a very long way from that point.These one years deals are great fort a pitcher to rebuild his value but unless we get a couple options year these bounce back deals do little to solidify our staff.

 

Go get Cobb and 2 relievers.Start the season with Erv | Berrios | Cobb | Gibson & Mejia.Give Gonsalves | Romero | Littell and maybe even Slegers a chance to win a spot.We need some low cost guys to produce because Erv might not be here next year.Unless we get lucky for once with prospects, we are going to need to replace Erv.The good news is we will have his salary and Mauer's to fund another FA.  

 

I don't want to go into free agency next year wondering about the same SP prospects. If these guys step up, we could use the available dollars on whatever piece we need in terms of position players.If the SP prospects get a chance and fail, it will be clear to the FO and ownership the need to spend in free agency or trade away prospects.

 

Personally, I like Ohtani for the second add to the rotation.:whacky028:

 

I wouldn't worry about starters beyond the opening day five getting opportunities next season. And I'm not sure Littell and especially Romero will be ready to contribute next year.

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#54 Drew

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 09:23 AM

I wish there were targets I were interested in, the current structure of this team would fit a huge SP signing. But I'm not much of a fan outside of any of the FA SP's other than Darvish (why not?). Just more Ricky Nolasco's. 

 


#55 DaveW

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 07:40 PM

The only one I would be interested on that list on anything more than a minor league deal would be Tillman, and I wouldn't go more than 2 years on him, maybe 2 years, 12 million, which seems fair to be a #5

Hard pass on the rest though TBH

I still would like to give Liriano a chance to be a bullpen arm.

Edited by DaveW, 09 November 2017 - 07:41 PM.

<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR