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Article: The 5 Best Pitching Gambles In Free Agency

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#21 Yoke

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 08:26 AM

Hard pass on everyone but Tillman. That one's a soft pass that I wouldn't love or hate.

 

With most of them, I'd rather just go with somebody in the system, and spend the money on top notch relief pitching.

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#22 Nick Nelson

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 09:27 AM

 

Jimenez's last great season was in 2010, and even 2.5 seasons in Cleveland could not fix him much.His FB is 6 mph slower than its peak.Might take a flyer on a MiLB contract, but that's about it.  

By what measure was his 2013 season not "great"? 

 

 

Easy question - none.Why would we do this?What is the upside?  

The upside is that you have a chance to capture an above-average starter while committing very little. Wasn't that pretty clearly explained?

 

It's pretty easy to say "These guys are bad, why sign any of them!" but teams sign players like this every year and catch lightning in a bottle. The Twins, IMO, are in very good position to take such gambles for a couple reasons:

 

1) They offer an attractive environment for pitchers looking for that one-year make-good deal because of their contending status and excellent defense.

 

2) They have enough pitching depth that if they sign one or two of these kinds of guys and they don't work out, the rotation should still be OK. 

 

I'm sure people would've been saying the same type of stuff last year about Charlie Morton if he was listed as a buy-low target. How'd that work out for Houston?

 

After Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins I don't want to touch any pitcher with thoracic outlet syndrome. 

All I'm gonna say is that this kind of limiting mindset would cause you to miss out on opportunities. It's important to be objective and open-minded, not blinded by personal experience.

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#23 gocgo

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 10:00 AM

Hellickson on a 1 year deal.Ross to a minor league.Hard pass on Ubaldo.

 

The only reason I would consider Hellickson is that I don't think Philly had a very good defense.And by that, I mean balls that could be caught by our outfield that didn't get caught in Philly.They fall as hits and affect the ERA of a pitcher, but if they are caught, the ERA plummets.

Mind your own biscuits and life will be gravy.


#24 Steve Penz

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 10:17 AM

Echoing a lot of people in these comments, I feel like the best moves are to sign extensions to current folks, look for a RH bat and look for bullpen. None of these guys are worth it.

#25 slash129

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 10:21 AM

Hellickson on a 1-yr make good after signing someone like Cobb, Lynn or maybe even Chatwood wouldn't be a bad idea. 

 

Santana will be another year older.Berrios may still have some bumps along the way, although I wouldn't be surprised if he turns into a true #1.Gibson needs to show that he can repeat that second half.Mejia still has options and is far from proven.Gonsalves has yet to make his debut.

 

Question marks? Yes 

 

2012 ... Marquis, De Vries, Walters, Deduno, (insert other 5+ FIP starter) territory? Absolutely not

 

No need to use resources on any high-risk, injury-comeback, Rich Harden reclamation project. Twins already have that project with Phil Hughes @ $13+M.

 

Just re-sign Dillon Gee, if any of those other 4 names are what it comes down to.He was a good long relief option and can make a spot start.

 

I also agree with the post above that states the time to go after that ace is at the trade deadline.

 

 


#26 Vanimal46

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 10:59 AM

In fairness, Charlie Morton looked like a forgettable signing for the Astros, but they fixed him. None of us has the data or study enough to know who's fixable, and who's not on this list. 

 

I wouldn't mind one on this list to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle. Certainly don't know who that pitcher would be. I'll leave that up to the FO. 

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#27 Thrylos

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 11:04 AM

 

By what measure was his 2013 season not "great"?

 

12th in K%
30th in K-BB%
33rd in fWAR, FIP,
76th in WHIP

0 Cy Young votes

No AS appearance
among 120 pitchers with 130+ IP, makes an above average, not a great season...

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#28 beckmt

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 11:45 AM

None of the above.Everyone with the same surgery as Phil Hughes has not come back well.Until we know more.

Pass

Sign Darvish or Cobb(think his price is low).


#29 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 12:16 PM

Twins have about a 4 or 5 year window to win it all.

 

They need a proven anchor for the rotation.

 

I know there will be more available after next season, but for me, for this historic opportunity, I think you bet the house.

 

And you bet it on Jake Arrieta, a work-out freak, a pretty good pitcher, and a guy who is not afraid of putting on big-boy pants, one leg at a time.

 

The rest will help the Twins get to the playoffs, but not win them.


#30 slash129

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 12:49 PM

 

Twins have about a 4 or 5 year window to win it all.

 

They need a proven anchor for the rotation.

 

I know there will be more available after next season, but for me, for this historic opportunity, I think you bet the house.

 

And you bet it on Jake Arrieta, a work-out freak, a pretty good pitcher, and a guy who is not afraid of putting on big-boy pants, one leg at a time.

 

The rest will help the Twins get to the playoffs, but not win them.

 

I fear that Arrieta is going to be a classic case of paying for past performance ... All his numbers are trending the wrong way since his Cy Young and he'll be 32 before the season starts and likely wanting a 6 year deal .... Let one of the spend-happy, big market teams have that contract

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#31 Danchat

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 01:49 PM

If we're talking about moving one of these guys to the bullpen, sure, that could work as we will likely lose Gee, our long reliever. I wouldn't pencil any of these guys into the rotation.


#32 caninatl04

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 02:05 PM

Two thoughts.First, I don't think the original post intended this kind of signing to be the only move or, indeed, even the major move.These would be low-risk, low cost moves.

 

Second, a shorter-term deal may make sense.Starting pitching in 2020 may not be a problem if the 2018 AAA starting rotation contributes by then.But, there is a hole or two between now and then.

 

I may not agree with the list, but I understand the thinking.

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#33 snap4birds

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 03:10 PM

Hellickson is from Des Moines.Minnesota would be the perfect place for him to re-establish his value.Good defense, close to family.....He was pretty successful in the AL East in the past, but never with a high strikeout percentage or anything close to domination.I could see this happening.....


#34 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 03:54 PM

 

Twins have about a 4 or 5 year window to win it all.

 

They need a proven anchor for the rotation.

 

I know there will be more available after next season, but for me, for this historic opportunity, I think you bet the house.

 

And you bet it on Jake Arrieta, a work-out freak, a pretty good pitcher, and a guy who is not afraid of putting on big-boy pants, one leg at a time.

 

The rest will help the Twins get to the playoffs, but not win them.

 

For starters, even with Arrieta, we are not on the same plane as the Indians, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, and Cubs.Beyond that reality, our core won't even hit 30 in that timeframe.Many people are making the point that if we manage our assets wisely we can extend the most important players like we did with Mauer.We also have a very deep system that should produce low cost players for the next several years. The window is only 4-5 years if our assets are managed poorly.

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#35 laloesch

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 04:43 PM

None of these options excites me. Jimenez is just awful, Cahill has not been a full time starter with any success since 2013, Hellickson to me is a fringe starter / long RP for a good team Tyson Ross has some intriguing K numbers when healthy but hasn't had a good year in for a couple of seasons. I would consider Chris tillman only if it's a low dollar short term deal given his low k numbers.


#36 Deduno Abides

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 06:47 PM

Interesting list. Hellickson could be interesting, but his defense wasn’t the problem, as he had a sub .250 BABIP. Instead, his problem was the non-defensible almost 2 HRs per game. Maybe being out of the home run fields of Baltimore and Philadelphia will help. Tillman is very interesting, except that he was all around awful last year, possibly due to injury. Without film, it’s hard to scout the stat line for turnaround candidates. If any of them would take a minor league deal, they would be worth bringing in. The Twins may in fact be one of the more appealing teams for a starter to take a minor league deal, for the same reasons Colon signed with the Twins instead of the Mets.

#37 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 06:58 PM

 

For starters, even with Arrieta, we are not on the same plane as the Indians, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, and Cubs.

 


 

 

 

We aren't going to be on their plane regardless, we have to elevate over them in a series.

 

In terms of wasting assets, this is a Twins thread, right?

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#38 Darius

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 08:23 PM

A team trying to make a playoff run probably shouldn't throwing these guys against the wall to see if they stick. Every game counts when they'll likely be competing for a Wild Card spot again. Something tells me they'll have to win a few more games.

Frankly, I'm tired of these types of moves. The Terry Ryan Special.

There is a reason why they are cheap and nobody wants them. The likelihood of them being remotely good is very, very low. The likelihood of them being detrimental to the team's playoff hopes is very, very high. It's like rationalizing the lottery as a retirement strategy. "Someone has to win it, right?"
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#39 DocBauer

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 09:56 PM

Tillman on the cheap as a flier to rebuild flier makes some sense. Ross on a milb deal with incentives definitely appeals. Otherwise, a simple PASS.

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

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#40 h2oface

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 04:24 AM

Cahill is the only one I would give a shot.