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Twins Big Splash Optimism

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#41 Shaitan

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 08:56 AM

It could go either way, but let's keep in mind that they may have tried signing FAs in the past, but they didn't want to sign with a team that had just lost 100 games.

 

 


#42 John Bonnes

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 10:13 AM

Pretty good discussion. Thank you for all helping me. It appears the answer is:

 

No, there have been no comments about being aggressive on the free agent market or increasing payroll. We're optimistic because it seems like it would make sense to sign a big free agent staring pitcher because 

 

1) the Twins could really use one for 2018

2) we're at the beginning of a competitive window.

 

Plus, we're hopeful that this front office will be different than the last one, or that ownership's budget philosophy will be different with new management. 

 

My personal prediction is that they won't get anyone better than Alex Cobb (the 5th best starter in this market) and I'd probably put the over/under even less than that. Instead, I kinda expect a couple of much lower level guys they sign as lottery tickets to see if any of them hit. 

 

We'll see, I guess. 

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#43 yarnivek1972

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 11:29 AM

I’ve mentioned this before, but it is worth repeating. I don’t think it is likely that the Twins would have been able to lure Falvey away from a championship level organization without some kind of assurance of financial commitment from ownership. What exactly that means, I suppose only Falvey and Pohlad know. But my guess is a commitment to be around 15th in the league in payroll.
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#44 drjim

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 11:51 AM

I’ve mentioned this before, but it is worth repeating. I don’t think it is likely that the Twins would have been able to lure Falvey away from a championship level organization without some kind of assurance of financial commitment from ownership. What exactly that means, I suppose only Falvey and Pohlad know. But my guess is a commitment to be around 15th in the league in payroll.


Probably not Levine either. Wasn't his quote something similar to them knowing they won't be a top 10 payroll. That still leaves a lot of wiggle room!
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#45 Sconnie

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 04:52 PM

https://www.fanragsp...agent-starters/

Heyman doesn’t provide direct quotes, but seems pretty convincing/convinced himself
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#46 twinssporto

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 05:52 PM

This is a great thread!  Thanks for starting it John...

 

The Twins WILL do something with a splash this year.  Personally I hope its a little bit of both: starting pitching and bullpen help.  

 

You will see some larger dollars spent along with a few interesting trades with our minor leaguers.  The core is in place but there seems to be a "timing lag" in talent coming up from the pitching side.  Something will be done. A few key additions and this team could really roll...I don't have any proof to back this up about trades or big spending but I've followed this team for 35 years.  I feel it in my bones.

On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.


#47 Monkeypaws

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 06:04 PM

I doubt they will outspend other teams for the likes of Lynn and Cobb, tho anything is possible.

 

I do expects some reclamation projects, and I am fine with that.

 

I think our new front office is crafty, and will continue to believe so until proven otherwise.

Edited by Monkeypaws, 10 November 2017 - 06:05 PM.


#48 Roaddog

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 06:30 AM

I'm hoping a good starter( Cobb or Lynn) and another pen arm or two.

#49 jorgenswest

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 08:01 AM

Lynn and Cobb do not belong in the same conversation as Darvish.

They would be big splash in Minnesota but so was Ricky Nolasco. These two are much more similar to Nolasco than Darvish.
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#50 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 10:18 AM

Lynn and Cobb do not belong in the same conversation as Darvish.
They would be big splash in Minnesota but so was Ricky Nolasco. These two are much more similar to Nolasco than Darvish.


The money would be more due to inflation, but I agree, Lynn and Cobb seem to fall more into the Nolasco/Santana tier of free agency.

Aim higher; make a trade if necessary.
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#51 drjim

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 10:21 AM

I suppose I am less optimistic they'll get one of the top two pitchers (partly because I think it is a bad resource allocation) or consummate a virtually impossible trade.
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#52 PDX Twin

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 10:37 AM

If they don't spend on pitching this year, I'm going to assume it's because they are saving up for Kershaw next year!;)

It's great to get out of the cellar ... as long as you bring something with you.


#53 mazeville

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 11:19 AM

1. There's a different front office. 

 

2. The Twins have money coming off the books and when they last fielded a team they thought was going to be competitive, in 2010, the payroll was $120 million, 9th in the league. They could sign two pretty good free agents to get up to that level.

 

3. Last year, when this front office identified Jason Castro as the target, they got him early and for a pretty rich, $24.5 million, deal for someone who bats 8th or 9th most days.

 

4. Contrary to popular belief, the ownership will OK spending when need be. When the Twins decided they needed pitching, they signed Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. It's such a silly misnomer that the Twins won't spend. They've been losing 90-plus games annually for years. I'd have spent even less if I were running the team.

 

5. The Twins went to the Wild Card game last year. There's reason to believe they could take a step forward next year with a couple of moves. 

 

6. There are national reports that the Twins might target top starters.

 

7. Fans are always optimistic. What's the point if you can't be optimistic every offseason? 

 

Here's my question: Why NOT be optimistic?

Edited by mazeville, 11 November 2017 - 11:20 AM.

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#54 darin617

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 12:11 PM

Lance Lynn & Alex Cobb are basically #4 starters on a good team. So I would not waste money on either who will get overpaid this winter.

 

As for the bullpen I would love some nice solid veteran arms that can throw hard. Perfect example would be Brandon Morrow. But, I would not want to sign the relief pitcher that had an amazing 2017 season. You will be overpaying big time. The Twins have to do their homework and sift through the free agents and find their targets.


#55 Rhino and Compass

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 01:59 PM

I think MLBTR did a good job covering the reasons why you could, theoretically, be optimistic about the Twins being aggressive in the offseason, though admittedly, they are circumstantial. Namely, the Twins have payroll room moving forward, are at the onset of that competetive window, and perhaps of more significant importance, with next year's huge class of free agents, many of the larger markets may be circling the wagons to make bids for bigger names next off season.

https://www.mlbtrade...n-to-spend.html

 

I think the most important thing for me is that this isn't the same group running things as it was in the past. There isn't the same conservative mentality, and the connection to the players in the system isn't as tight as it was previously. While my brain says that they should and will make some big moves, be they via free agency or trade, my heart says that they might re-sign Kintzler and then check out for the rest of the winter. 

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#56 KirbyDome89

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 02:56 PM

 

4. Contrary to popular belief, the ownership will OK spending when need be. When the Twins decided they needed pitching, they signed Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. It's such a silly misnomer that the Twins won't spend. They've been losing 90-plus games annually for years. I'd have spent even less if I were running the team.

Misnomer?

 

The payroll peaked in 2011 following a good 10', and a move into a new stadium, and then instantly it was slashed. It hasn't been anywhere near that 10' - 11' mark since. Even with those "big FA signings," they've still finished in the bottom half of the league in spending every year since 11'. Revenue across baseball is increasing every year but the Twins payroll has actually decreased each of the last 2 seasons, and the difference between 16' and 17' was fairly significant. I agree this team is starting to open a window of contention, but this young core didn't sneak up on ownership. They knew this team was moving towards being competitive and rather than bringing in talent they've cut spending the past few seasons. To me, the opposing trends in spending vs. performance don't seem to reflect an ownership group that is willing is spend. 

 

Honestly, I would love to see them start spending on top FAs, but right now it isn't a misnomer that the Twins forego being real players in free agency; it's reality.

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#57 drjim

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 03:11 PM

Misnomer?

The payroll peaked in 2011 following a good 10', and a move into a new stadium, and then instantly it was slashed. It hasn't been anywhere near that 10' - 11' mark since. Even with those "big FA signings," they've still finished in the bottom half of the league in spending every year since 11'. Revenue across baseball is increasing every year but the Twins payroll has actually decreased each of the last 2 seasons, and the difference between 16' and 17' was fairly significant. I agree this team is starting to open a window of contention, but this young core didn't sneak up on ownership. They knew this team was moving towards being competitive and rather than bringing in talent they've cut spending the past few seasons. To me, the opposing trends in spending vs. performance don't seem to reflect an ownership group that is willing is spend.

Honestly, I would love to see them start spending on top FAs, but right now it isn't a misnomer that the Twins forego being real players in free agency; it's reality.


Part of the problem was the lack of internal options to spend money on. They were so desperate they extendes veterans when they should have either traded them to acquire future assets or not overpaid to sign such mediocre vets in the first place.

Going for the top free agents on long contracts the last several years would left them with big money for players that were declining. It's a good thing that isn't the case now beyond Hughes.

The Twins spent too much during the down years. Isn't that obvious now after witnessing the well executed rebuilds of the Cubs and Astros during the relatively same timeframe?
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#58 strumdatjaguar

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 03:39 PM

No Jaime Garcia nor Nolasco nor other mid or low rotation types. The Twins indeed should make no free agent moves on the starting pitching market.  If they are competing in July, then they look to make a trade to upgrade talent wherever that need may be.  Until then, they can add Kintzler and/or some other reliever, invite some potential bounce back players to sign MiLB contract, but mostly go with the program and add on IF they are making a playoff run in July! At this point, it's Santana, Berrios, Gibson (short leash), Mejia (shorter leash) and competition for the fifth spot (Gonsalves, Slegers, May, . . .)

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#59 jimmer

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 03:39 PM

Wait a minute.  

 

First some say we actually spent a lot on pitching over the last few years.Then we read a 3 year, 24.5M FA contract for a veteran player is a pricey contract and now we've gotten to the point where we spent TOO MUCH money over the last few years?

 

Incredible.

 

We are spending BEASTS!

Edited by jimmer, 11 November 2017 - 03:41 PM.

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#60 KirbyDome89

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 03:42 PM

 

Part of the problem was the lack of internal options to spend money on. They were so desperate they extendes veterans when they should have either traded them to acquire future assets or not overpaid to sign such mediocre vets in the first place.

Going for the top free agents on long contracts the last several years would left them with big money for players that were declining. It's a good thing that isn't the case now beyond Hughes.

The Twins spent too much during the down years. Isn't that obvious now after witnessing the well executed rebuilds of the Cubs and Astros during the relatively same timeframe?

That circumstance exists because of their own mismanagement. They don't get pass for not spending because they made a mess for themselves. 

 

So their current pitching situation is better now than it would've been with a big FA pitcher? I'll disagree. The Cubs brought Lester in following a 89 loss season. You can collect talent while waiting for the youth movement to hit. That's what the Twins should've been doing. That's how you maximize a window. We're already hearing arguments against bringing in pitching because the core players need extensions. If they would've brought in a top FA a few years ago that likely 5-6 year contract would be off the books before any of the core hit FA. 

 

I would've been completely onboard for a slash and burn a la Houston, but the Twins are past the point where they can operate like that. I don't think it's that they spent too much, rather they just completely bungled resource allocation/timing. 

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