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Twins Big Splash Optimism

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#21 drjim

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 07:40 PM

Two-Three? That doesn't sound right.


Nolasco 4/49, Santana 4/55, Hughes 3/18 (plus an uncounted but substantial extension), a couple spare millions for the Correas, Pelfreys, etc of the world.

They won't hesitate on Lynn or Cobb just because of money.
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#22 jimmer

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 07:46 PM

 

Nolasco 4/49, Santana 4/55, Hughes 3/18 (plus an uncounted but substantial extension), a couple spare millions for the Correas, Pelfreys, etc of the world.

They won't hesitate on Lynn or Cobb just because of money.

So for the main three you mentioned, 11 years of FA pitching for 122M.11M a year average for our substantial FA signings, but then some bargain basement ones as well (which count towards conversations about FA signings done to help our rotation, I believe).

 

In any event is 11M a year going to get QUALITY pitching in today's game when 1 WAR is worth about 8M? Quality pitchers cost way more.

 

But, hey, I hope so, but neither Lynn or Cobb are impressive and not sure either are worth a 4/48 contract.

 

 

Edited by jimmer, 05 November 2017 - 08:00 PM.

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#23 drjim

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:02 PM

So for the main three you mentioned, 11 years of FA pitching for 122M. 11M a year average for our substantial FA signings, but then some bargain basement ones as well (which count towards conversations about FA signings done to help our rotation, I believe).

In any event is 11M a year going to get quality pitching in today's game when 1 WAR is worth about 8M? I hope so, but neither Lynn or Cobb are impressive.


Lynn and Cobb are probably the 3rd and 4th best free agent starting pitcher options this offseason (not counting a possible Otani posting). This is what's out there.

And going by memory, the amount the Twins spent in that period is definitely higher than 13 other teams and probably higher than 18 teams. I might dig more tomorrow.
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#24 Thrylos

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:05 PM

I am optimistic that the Twins will go after pitching via trades and not free agency.Other than Morrow, I do not see anyone in free agency who will provide enough bang for their buck, and I'd rather do not see them half-rear ending this again with mediocre second tier pitchers.

 

As far as where this optimism comes from, Pohlad said so pretty much.

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#25 jimmer

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:09 PM

 

Lynn and Cobb are probably the 3rd and 4th best free agent starting pitcher options this offseason (not counting a possible Otani posting). This is what's out there.

And going by memory, the amount the Twins spent in that period is definitely higher than 13 other teams and probably higher than 18 teams. I might dig more tomorrow.

Perhaps it was, but how good were the pitching staffs of those teams who spent less?Did they spend it earlier than that time frame?Were they actually able to develop quality pitching and/or trade for young quality pitching instead of having to spend to put a competitive pitching staff together?

 

We've needed pitching for a long time.We've had the worst pitching in baseball this decade.We haven't done a good job developing it or trading for it, so being average in spending doesn't seem to be okay.

Edited by jimmer, 05 November 2017 - 08:14 PM.

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#26 ashburyjohn

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:10 PM

As far as where this optimism comes from, Pohlad said so pretty much.

I couldn't help noting this off-topic nugget:

 

“I don’t think Derek would take credit for all those trades in Cleveland himself,” Pohlad said.

Jim Pohlad speaking, or Captain Obvious? :) 9618.jpg

 

 

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#27 Winston Smith

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:14 PM

 

So for the main three you mentioned, 11 years of FA pitching for 122M.11M a year average for our substantial FA signings, but then some bargain basement ones as well (which count towards conversations about FA signings done to help our rotation, I believe).

 

In any event is 11M a year going to get QUALITY pitching in today's game when 1 WAR is worth about 8M? Quality pitchers cost way more.

 

But, hey, I hope so, but neither Lynn or Cobb are impressive and not sure either are worth a 4/48 contract.

They are worth whatever someone will pay them. A lot of teams need help and the free agent list is thin so players will likely get paid well this winter.

Will they spend big? I really don't think it's in Jim Pohlads dna. Maybe a few smaller signings but nothing big, imo.

Martinez is the only one I'd spend big on.

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#28 Thrylos

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:21 PM

 

Nolasco 4/49, Santana 4/55, Hughes 3/18 (plus an uncounted but substantial extension), a couple spare millions for the Correas, Pelfreys, etc of the world.

They won't hesitate on Lynn or Cobb just because of money.

 

Cobb:6.7% SwStr%, 17.3 K%, 11.3 K-BB%

Lynn: 9.0 SwStr%, 19.7 K%, 9.7 K-BB% (in the NL so several of those against Ps)

 

That's why they should hesitate.

For comparison's purpose:

 

Mejia: 10.5 SwStr%, 19.2 K%, 9.3 K-BB%, and has not yet reached his prime.

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#29 Thrylos

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:22 PM

 

 


Jim Pohlad speaking, or Captain Obvious? :) 9618.jpg

 

Frankly, I don't see much difference there ;)

 

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#30 jimmer

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:23 PM

 

Cobb:6.7% SwStr%, 17.3 K%, 11.3 K-BB%

Lynn: 9.0 SwStr%, 19.7 K%, 9.7 K-BB% (in the NL so several of those against Ps)

 

That's why they should hesitate.

For comparison's purpose:

 

Mejia: 10.5 SwStr%, 19.2 K%, 9.3 K-BB%, and has not yet reached his prime.

Berrios, Santana, Mejia, Gonzalez and May if he's ready.Let's rock and roll!

 

18 of Lynn's Ks were against pitchers, BTW.

Edited by jimmer, 05 November 2017 - 08:28 PM.

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#31 spinowner

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:25 PM

I actually don't see them making a big splash either signing or trading for a pitcher. Obviously the team needs help but as many have stated so do a lot of other teams and the free agent pool is not particularly large or deep. This doesn't make me optimistic or pessimistic, though. My optimism is regarding the hope that they will loosen the purse strings to lock up some of our young position players. 

Edited by spinowner, 05 November 2017 - 08:26 PM.

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#32 drjim

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:46 PM

Cobb: 6.7% SwStr%, 17.3 K%, 11.3 K-BB%
Lynn: 9.0 SwStr%, 19.7 K%, 9.7 K-BB% (in the NL so several of those against Ps)

That's why they should hesitate.
For comparison's purpose:

Mejia: 10.5 SwStr%, 19.2 K%, 9.3 K-BB%, and has not yet reached his prime.

I don't necessarily disagree. There are plenty of reasons beyond money to pass on this entire free agent crop.

EDIT: But they do need someone, and I'm not sure their prospects are good enough to acquire someone this offseason.

Edited by drjim, 05 November 2017 - 08:48 PM.

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#33 Riverbrian

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:51 PM

I have heard nothing to give me optimism.

 

However necessity is the mother of invention and I'm optimistic that this necessity is in plain sight. 

 

Who is going to close? Will they hand the ball to Hildenberger, Rogers, Pressly, Busenitz or Duffey after careful consideration of sophomore slumps, injuries and K Rates or will they give Molitor more experienced options to increase his options in case the young guys end up being slightly below par.  

 

How many quality bullpen arms will they need if your starters are consistently going 6 innings tops (and the reason everybody is screaming starter suggests that we won't have a ton of complete games minimizing the bullpen usage) while... while...the young offense is producing in 2018 and looking for some support synergy on the mound. 

 

I'm simply optimistic because "Necessity is the mother of invention". 

 

 

 

Then again...

 

Desecration is the better part of valor. 

 

I gotta stop reading things. 

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#34 Roaddog

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 03:27 AM

Who do you envision them trading to get starting pitching?

No idea.

#35 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 04:55 AM

yeah, I don't know if the issue is optimism so much as it is that it makes sense for them to do something. They have a young hitting core that is here now and they need pitching. They can trade prospects for it, which isn't the end of the world, but that risks the future. Their other option is to sign someone, and since there is room in the payroll, why not?

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#36 The Wise One

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 05:50 AM

 

Cobb:6.7% SwStr%, 17.3 K%, 11.3 K-BB%

Lynn: 9.0 SwStr%, 19.7 K%, 9.7 K-BB% (in the NL so several of those against Ps)

 

That's why they should hesitate.

For comparison's purpose:

 

Mejia: 10.5 SwStr%, 19.2 K%, 9.3 K-BB%, and has not yet reached his prime.

for comparison. 198vs 98. That would be innings pitched. 3.43 vs 4.50.That would be ERA as in the actual outcome of a game.Somehow with the delusion of similar talent being put forth the cold hard reality is that you will pitch longer into games and have less runs scored against you per gamewhen you are a better pitcher.

Edited by The Wise One, 06 November 2017 - 05:54 AM.


#37 The Wise One

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 06:22 AM

I have read a quite a bit of stuff but nothing that really ties Falvey, Pohlad, nor Levine to the words " we will be signing top free agent agent pitcher".Nor have I seen anything that resembles" We will be signing an almost top tier free agent pitcher", Nor have I heard anything that sounds like a plan. That really doesn't mean much.I have seen people working their way up a system.I do not think that neither Falvey nor Levine came here to collect a better paycheck ,surf the net, read a few hundred blogs, and see how long they lead the high life before getting fired. Too many people have not had their contracts renewed for anyone to think that the status of the team will remain quo

Edited by The Wise One, 06 November 2017 - 06:39 AM.

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#38 Platoon

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 07:57 AM

He asked a question, I answered. I don't care if there is 'evidence' or not. I'm choosing to hope good things come. I don't think it's any worse an answer than 'because they never have.'

You definitely are in the "Charley Brown" camp. In past years I would consider that an unrealistic position. But there is a new sheriff(s) in town, and hopefully they will at the least spend more, and spend more wisely, than the previous sheriff. I know the mayor is the same, so I do not expect Yu Darvish or his ilk to be wearing one of those hideous red jerseys next year, but hopefully we will be able to acquire a solid 2-3, and give some of the better talent in the minors a decent shot. Nothing Falvine did last year regarding pitching affected the Twins final landing spot. In one mid season you could not acquire, within reason, enough pitching to change the teams playoff position, nor to beat the Yankees on that day. To me the jury is still out, and will be for longer than many would like to consider. I may not be a Charley Brown optimist, but since Lucy is no longer holding the football, I will take one more run at it! :)
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#39 mikelink45

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 08:29 AM

No.What I see is from fans who want to be front office and wish they could motivate those in charge.At this point the FO is still a mystery.What I have seen and understand so far is: 

  1. They felt a catcher with framing skills would help the pitching staff and signed Castro and Giminez.Not a big splash, just filling a need.
  2. They thought the Bullpen needed some veteran help so they got Belisle, Breslow and nothing here was a splash or showed a propensity for big spending or glamour.
  3. They wanted to test a lot of pitchers to see if there was a hidden gem - there wasn't names like Tepesch, Wilks...will be trivia answers in the future.
  4. They observed the coaches, immediately changed the batting coaches which seems to have really helped and took longer than I expected to change pitching coaches.
  5. Now they want to put their team together of management and coaching from minors to majors and to dump some of the old "Twins" way.

So really nothing here that indicated spending and chasing a dream.It seems methodical and we are still watching the movements and the indicators to see what is next. I believe Cleveland locked up its young players before taking the next steps and I expect that to be the first agenda item, but still not sure.

 

 

 

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#40 Deduno Abides

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 08:55 AM

I hope they do NOT sign an expensive starter this off-season. In 2018, Cleveland is likely to again win the division and the Twins are likely again to be playing for the wild card. Adding Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb would not be likely to change that. An expensive starter in 2018 would, however, add risk of having dead money in 2019 and later years, when their chances of beating Cleveland are better and when spending money would have a chance of improving outcomes.

I hope they DO spend money on relievers this winter. It is likely that the Twins will have some interesting rookie starters in 2018 and having a deep and good bullpen would ease the stress and help cover up mistakes.

If the team looks good at the trade deadline, I hope the Twins do look at adding a good starter at that time. You would hope that pitcher has a good health history.

Edited by Deduno Abides, 06 November 2017 - 08:56 AM.

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