Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Why the Twins should stick to the 4/48 bin in free agency

  • Please log in to reply
141 replies to this topic

#1 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,221 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 09:48 AM

Santana and Nolasco both got roughly the 4/48m deal from the Twins in free agency.Here's a list of all the pitchers who got bigger deals from 13-16.

 

In 2013 the big three deals were for Grienke, Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez. Grienke's been great although his contract had an opt out that he used to sign with the Dbacks. Sanchez and Jackson were horrible.Both contracts are now over and they combined for 9 years, about 1000 innings, nearly $125m and 3 WAR.The Cubs and Tigers, of course, could afford that.

 

In 2014- Tanaka, Garza and Ubaldo Jimenz. Tanaka was a bit special as a FA from Japan and younger than most. The Yankees gave him a 7/155 deal which hasn't been bad so far although this was a bit of down year. Garza, Jiminez and Nolasco all got about the same deal and Nolasco was probably the best of them.

 

In 2015 Scherzer, Lester and Shields got signed for more than Santana. Lester had two good years but was not good this year and is trending down. He'll be 34 next year and owed 85m over the next three seasons (counting the buy out). Scherzer got a 7/210 deal and has been awesome so far. Shields, 25/year, has been a disaster.

 

And before the 2016 season the big deals were David Price, Grienke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmerman, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy and Scott Kazmir. All nine of those guys got bigger deals than Ervin. Price had a great first year but was injured and feuding with the media and is still owed nearly 160m. Greinke is good. Cueto put up a 93 ERA+ and is injured. Zimmerman was worse than Kyle Gibson this year. He'll be 32 next year and still owed 75m. Shark's been serviceable but he's never been as good as his rep. Chen's been a disaster (Miami would trade him to us for nothing). Leake was already traded for nothing and two teams are dividing his salary. Kazmir missed the entire season and Kennedy sucks.

 

That's 18 deals and a heck of a lot of misses. Unsurprisingly, older pitchers are worse bets. And the best deals were the absolute most expensive ones as guys like Grienke and Scherzer can command a lot more than Darvish money, and there is no Grienke in this FA class.Pitchers with past injury history or limited innings tended to be bad gambles (and pitchers with good track records of innings and performance were good, until they went bad). And Tanaka, a young arm from Japan, was a different kind of gamble.If the Twins get someone like Alex Cobb at 4/48 and he busts, we can probably work around it. If the Twins get Darvish at 6/150 and he busts, we probably can't.

 

If the Twins can get someone like Alex Cobb or, even better, trade for a younger pitcher than those eligible for free agency, it would probably be a safer way to improve the rotation.

  • glunn, birdwatcher, Kevin and 6 others like this

#2 slash129

slash129

    Member

  • Members
  • 68 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 10:08 AM

Not to mention Darvish doesn't look like he can handle the big stage, so why would you want him as your #1 (if you're planning on getting there)?

  • mikelink45 likes this

#3 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,852 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 10:35 AM

 

Not to mention Darvish doesn't look like he can handle the big stage, so why would you want him as your #1 (if you're planning on getting there)?

Admit this is a risk, but you need to get invited to the dance, before you can dance.

  • Oldgoat_MN, Danchat and BuxtonBandwagon like this

#4 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 18,747 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 10:36 AM

 

Both contracts are now over and they combined for 9 years, about 1000 innings, nearly $125m and 3 WAR.

*winces*

  • big dog likes this

#5 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 18,747 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 10:37 AM

 

Not to mention Darvish doesn't look like he can handle the big stage, so why would you want him as your #1 (if you're planning on getting there)?

You're reading too much into 3.1 World Series innings. Darvish was very good in both the NLCS and NLDS.

 

Small sample sizes abound, naturally.

  • Ryan Atkins, Twins33, Oldgoat_MN and 7 others like this

#6 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,565 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 05 November 2017 - 10:51 AM

Definitely agree with the premise and a plan that reflects it. They can get a solid pitcher in the 4/48 bin.

For the Twins to get an ace, they either need Berrios to take a step (probably not happening), or they'll have to make a trade, which strikes me as more possible. High end starters on short deals come available at the deadline, and the Twins system has enough depth that they will likely have enough development that they can make a move midseason.

A plan of solidifying the staff with a starter in this bucket and a reliever or two, and then being in position to strike midseason is prudent.

Darvish and Arrieta seem much more likely to continue the trend laid out than buck it.
  • Steve Lein, birdwatcher, gunnarthor and 5 others like this
Papers...business papers.

#7 mikelink45

mikelink45

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 1,207 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 11:13 AM

 

You're reading too much into 3.1 World Series innings. Darvish was very good in both the NLCS and NLDS.

 

Small sample sizes abound, naturally.

Darvish had less than a stellar year and sometimes small samples can be quite enlightening.I think this essay is essential reading for all who want to fall into the trap of big contracts that pay for past performances and not future potential.I will take the younger pitchers.

  • tarheeltwinsfan likes this

#8 mikelink45

mikelink45

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 1,207 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 11:18 AM

I really enjoyed this essay - it could be expanded to show all the bad contracts for past their prime hitters.Someone in charge has to recognize that you should not pay for past greatness.  

 

Stay young, take on potential.The Astos did not trade for Verlander until they were ready for the last step.  

 

  • Steve Lein, Major Leauge Ready, laloesch and 2 others like this

#9 butterspud

butterspud

    Elizabethton

  • Members
  • 6 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 11:42 AM

Can we even get Cobb with 4/48??

  • gil4, Oldgoat_MN and Hosken Bombo Disco like this

#10 laloesch

laloesch

    Member

  • Members
  • 1,282 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 11:59 AM

Definitely agree with the premise and a plan that reflects it. They can get a solid pitcher in the 4/48 bin.
For the Twins to get an ace, they either need Berrios to take a step (probably not happening), or they'll have to make a trade, which strikes me as more possible. High end starters on short deals come available at the deadline, and the Twins system has enough depth that they will likely have enough development that they can make a move midseason.
A plan of solidifying the staff with a starter in this bucket and a reliever or two, and then being in position to strike midseason is prudent.
Darvish and Arrieta seem much more likely to continue the trend laid out than buck it.


Keep an eye on thorpe.
  • Oldgoat_MN and rdehring like this

#11 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,565 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 05 November 2017 - 12:05 PM

Keep an eye on thorpe.


I'm a big Thorpe guy, but he is probably not reaching these levels until 2020 at the earliest. He might be the pop up guy they can trade midseason for a legit top of the rotation guy tho.
  • howieramone2 likes this
Papers...business papers.

#12 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,565 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 05 November 2017 - 12:07 PM

Can we even get Cobb with 4/48??


That's the mlbtraderumors prediction, but does seem light. The key for this "bucket" is probably more about total years than a couple million either way in aav.
  • gunnarthor likes this
Papers...business papers.

#13 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Haighters gonna Haight

  • Twins Mods
  • 15,761 posts
  • LocationNatick, MA

Posted 05 November 2017 - 12:51 PM

You're reading too much into 3.1 World Series innings.

There is a reason the innings weren't more. :)

  • big dog likes this

If the first person on the phone can't answer your question, it's a bureaucracy.


#14 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Billy G.O.A.T

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,852 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 01:34 PM

The nature of the 4/48M pitchers almost guarantees they'll never be the kind of guy who could lead a WS contender though.

If they were already good enough to do so they'd be getting a bigger free agent deal, but the solid deal they received is just reinforcement that they don't and won't have to change their game in effort to become that guy.

If the Twins can't or shouldn't sign the big shots, they should get the guys who have the ability to become a big shot but still have something to prove.
  • USAFChief, glunn and GP830 like this

#15 jimmer

jimmer

    A former AF SNCO who values integrity.

  • Members
  • 9,106 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 02:14 PM

So we should just follow Ryan's plan cause even though we didn't get much out of it, and haven't had an elite type pitcher in 10 years, at least the Pohlad's didn't lose big on the huge FA busts other teams did?

 

Now, some of us have pushed to trade quality veterans to try and get young quality pitching, but then people balk at that too.So, I mean, we can't trade quality aging veteran's for young pitching (cause we might not pick the right guy), and we can't buy quality pitching (cause we should be scared of the wasted money), so our plan has to be about developing quality pitching which I am for but which we've failed miserably at for so long.

 

The Twins won't go get high priced FA pitchers/players anyway, so hopefully this new regime will figure out how to get the system to develop quality pitchers cause if we are just pushing to keep the status quo on FA, we better figure out a better pitching philosophy to teach the guys we draft.

Edited by jimmer, 05 November 2017 - 02:23 PM.

  • Mike Sixel, beckmt, Sconnie and 5 others like this

#16 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 7,589 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 02:19 PM

As far as Alex Cobb specifically, here is an article that is sure to confuse and delight the reader:

https://www.draysbay...-tampa-bay-rays
  • gil4 and Oldgoat_MN like this

It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All Star

Game and an old timer's game. - Vin Scully


#17 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 7,589 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 02:23 PM

So we should just follow Ryan's plan cause even though we didn't get much out of it, and haven't had an elite type pitcher in 10 years, at least the Pohlad's didn't lose big on the huge FA busts other teams did?
 
It's all hypothetical anyway. The Twins won't go get high priced FA pitchers/players anyway.Hopefully this new regime will figure out how to get the system to develop quality pitchers cause if we are just pushing to keep the status quo on FA, we better figure out a better pitching philosophy to teach the guys we draft.

I am bullish on Berrios, and I think he has an outside shot to be the #1 we are all hoping to see.
  • TNTwinsFan and jimmer like this

It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All Star

Game and an old timer's game. - Vin Scully


#18 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,221 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 02:24 PM

 

So we should just follow Ryan's plan cause even though we didn't get much out of it, and haven't had an elite type pitcher in 10 years, at least the Pohlad's didn't lose big on the huge FA busts other teams did?

 

.

Ryan's plan got us a couple elite pitchers and kept a small market team in contention for basically a decade. So it does seem likley that a guy who came from Cleveland would follow the ideas of Ryan and try and do them better.

 

So far that's more or less what we've seen. Whether Falvey and Levine will be more willing to trade minor league assests is to be determined but small free agent deals, rule v pickups, waiver claims, cheap bullpen arms - the current FO's first year looked a lot like a Ryan year.

  • birdwatcher and howieramone2 like this

#19 jimmer

jimmer

    A former AF SNCO who values integrity.

  • Members
  • 9,106 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 02:25 PM

 

I am bullish on Berrios, and I think he has an outside shot to be the #1 we are all hoping to see.

If he can find some consistency, yeah.I think he'll be more of a high 3 when it's all said and done which is absolutely a quality pitcher, but which leaves us two of those (Santana and him).

Edited by jimmer, 05 November 2017 - 02:30 PM.


#20 mazeville

mazeville

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 601 posts

Posted 05 November 2017 - 02:25 PM

 

So we should just follow Ryan's plan cause even though we didn't get much out of it, and haven't had an elite type pitcher in 10 years, at least the Pohlad's didn't lose big on the huge FA busts other teams did?

 

You don't go to "Ryan's plan." You build from within. Collect as many assets as possible during your down years. When you are ready to compete, you find a free agent or a trade to supplement what you have.

 

Ryan's two biggest problems were poor drafting, failed trades and poor preparation due to his failure to keep up with the times. But he was right in that free agency isn't a way to build a pitching staff, it's only a way to supplement your pitching staff because the available pitchers are usually older and more expensive than they should be. 

 

Theoretically, Jose Berrios takes a step forward to lead the staff next year (his stuff is ridiculous). And then perhaps Gonsalves and Romero do well once they get called up. 

 

Perhaps the new regime will let a few of those assets go to get a guy who would be better than any of the free agent options.