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Article: Ranking The Rule 5 Options

stephen gonsalves jake reed lewin diaz zack littell lewis thorpe
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#21 Rosterman

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 11:41 AM

 

In my blueprint, which I'll post tomorrow, I'll go through the 40 man. We can take off the Free Agents, there are arbitration decisions, there will be DFAs, trades, etc. 

 

I definitely encourage everyone to download to Offseason Handbook and to do their own blueprints. 

 

I don't think "opening the season in the big leagues" has anything to do with 40-man roster adds. It probably is down the list of decisions on current 40-man roster guys and whether they stay on it too.

Yet you can't have too many guys on the 40-man who aren't major league ready. That's my point. Unless you are a total rebuilding team and will allow guys to play in the majors when they aren't quite ready. Plus, you need the flexibility to add those "minor league free agents" for a moment or two. Once you do put a player on the 40-man roster, it is easier to claim them if they are removed and keep them in the claiming organization, unlike the Rule 5 where you have to keep them in the majors ALL year or return them to the original team.

 

You can't have 12 or 15 guys who aren't major league ready taking up roster space.

 

Or can you?

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#22 Thrylos

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 12:05 PM

Re: Navaretto: Unless he can hit his way out of a paper bag (.550 OPS this season), he does not belong to this discussion. Rainis Silva should be on the bubble, since a. he is better as a catcher and b. seems to have learned how to hit his way out of a paper back last season.

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#23 nicksaviking

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 12:39 PM

Burdi will be an easy one to poach if someone wants to. He gets selected and put on the 60 day DL. I know there's a gentlemen's agreement here on that, and hope no one wants to violate it, as in my opinion, that shouldn't be allowed.

I agree.

On the other hand if it was the White Sox in that situation and they had a tempting 60-day DLer..... we'll screw 'em!

#24 bluechipper

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 12:43 PM

I don't get Diaz being a lock at all. Sure, he hit a lot of doubles last year, but no team is going to carry a 1B who hit 12 homers in low-a. And it's not like he hit .330 there either. I say there's about a 1% chance he gets added.
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#25 nicksaviking

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 12:45 PM

I'd kind of hate to lose Bard, I started to really like his numbers last year.

But frankly, there doesn't look to be a big need for consternation this year. For a team that made the playoffs there looks to be a whole lot of players on the 40-man who should be removed regardless of the Rule V needs.
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#26 Han Joelo

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 12:45 PM

As Pertaining to Navaretto,

 

When it comes to judging catcher value, I have no idea what I am talking about, and neither does anybody else.  Juan Centeno just won a WS ring.  Turner stuck all year.  Butera, Murphy have value.  I have to surmise there aren't 60 elite MLB caliber catchers in the world, defensively speaking.  If Navaretto is "elite" defensively, well...trade him for something.  


#27 nicksaviking

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 12:47 PM

I don't get Diaz being a lock at all. Sure, he hit a lot of doubles last year, but no team is going to carry a 1B who hit 12 homers in low-a. And it's not like he hit .330 there either.

I say there's about a 1% chance he gets added.


Particularly considering how affordable veteran corner bats are these days.
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#28 Thrylos

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 01:08 PM

 

I don't get Diaz being a lock at all. Sure, he hit a lot of doubles last year, but no team is going to carry a 1B who hit 12 homers in low-a. And it's not like he hit .330 there either. I say there's about a 1% chance he gets added.

 

Houston in 2012 started a certain 21 year old who hit .276/.297/.357 with 2 HR in 234 PAs.This guy will likely be the 2017 AL MVP.Rebuilding teams do not care about the present, they care about the future, and Diaz likely (need to look at the list) will have the highest potential among the available first basemen. No competitive team will pick him, but there are the Marlins and Reds and Pardes of the world out there...

 

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#29 Seth Stohs

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 01:14 PM

 

Yet you can't have too many guys on the 40-man who aren't major league ready. That's my point. Unless you are a total rebuilding team and will allow guys to play in the majors when they aren't quite ready. Plus, you need the flexibility to add those "minor league free agents" for a moment or two. Once you do put a player on the 40-man roster, it is easier to claim them if they are removed and keep them in the claiming organization, unlike the Rule 5 where you have to keep them in the majors ALL year or return them to the original team.

 

You can't have 12 or 15 guys who aren't major league ready taking up roster space.

 

Or can you?

 

That is a good point. It's also important to note that guys added to the 40 man roster this month have to stay on the 40-man roster until at least spring training. So, they'll need to keep enough guys that can be DFAd when they add free agents, etc. 

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#30 srmcginnity

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 01:15 PM

I would NOT protect Lewin Diaz. If someone really wants him at this age/ability, he will most likely fail. The four on the bubble are really hard to figure out. I would keep Thorpe for sure. He's a given to me. After that, Stewart is likely a future BP arm. I guess it depends if they think he'll be a stud or not as a BP arm. Bard has solid stuff and his stats are trending the right direction. I would try and keep him. Burdi will definitely get taken by another team but he seems so injury prone. I hate to lose him. How many spots are there likely going to be?

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#31 Seth Stohs

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 01:17 PM

 

As Pertaining to Navaretto,

 

When it comes to judging catcher value, I have no idea what I am talking about, and neither does anybody else.  Juan Centeno just won a WS ring.  Turner stuck all year.  Butera, Murphy have value.  I have to surmise there aren't 60 elite MLB caliber catchers in the world, defensively speaking.  If Navaretto is "elite" defensively, well...trade him for something.  

 

This is well put... teams value catcher defense tremendously. 


#32 nicksaviking

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 02:21 PM

Houston in 2012 started a certain 21 year old who hit .276/.297/.357 with 2 HR in 234 PAs. This guy will likely be the 2017 AL MVP. Rebuilding teams do not care about the present, they care about the future, and Diaz likely (need to look at the list) will have the highest potential among the available first basemen. No competitive team will pick him, but there are the Marlins and Reds and Pardes of the world out there...

I highly doubt any team is going to view Diaz as a middle infield candidate.

How many teams even carry a bench player who is strictly confined to playing 1B anymore? Let alone a guy who certainly can't hit MLB pitching.

No one cares about first base anymore. You can get a half dozen guys who can post a .750 OPS for a couple million bucks each year in free agency. It has become an afterthought of a position; these days the Rule V is mostly made up of pitchers with a handful of defensive minded middle infielders and toolsy outfielders.
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#33 Vanimal46

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 02:26 PM

Every year we're concerned about losing players to other teams. And every year it proves not to matter. I'd protect the givens minus Diaz, and Thorpe. If any other team selects the rest of the guys, good luck to them. Odds are they won't make an impact, and will be sold back to the Twins at a later date. 

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#34 drjim

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 02:35 PM

 

Every year we're concerned about losing players to other teams. And every year it proves not to matter. I'd protect the givens minus Diaz, and Thorpe. If any other team selects the rest of the guys, good luck to them. Odds are they won't make an impact, and will be sold back to the Twins at a later date. 

 

I would say any reliever on this list that was healthy and didn't make it on the 25 man this season is probably ok to leave unprotected.

 

I would keep Stewart one more year though.

Papers...business papers.

#35 Mike Sixel

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 04:01 PM

Thorpe is a lock to me.
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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#36 MileHighTwinsFan

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 04:07 PM

It will be fascinating to see through their 40 man roster decisions how they see the current state of their pitching staff.I would suspect that these decisions will provide the greatest insights on how they intend to build a competitive staff from within. Will they hoard arms or will they make some distinct choices about the types of arms they believe will contribute and soon.  


#37 bluechipper

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 04:17 PM

 

Houston in 2012 started a certain 21 year old who hit .276/.297/.357 with 2 HR in 234 PAs.This guy will likely be the 2017 AL MVP.Rebuilding teams do not care about the present, they care about the future, and Diaz likely (need to look at the list) will have the highest potential among the available first basemen. No competitive team will pick him, but there are the Marlins and Reds and Pardes of the world out there...

Just for the sake of arguing, the 3 teams you listed have established 1B on their roster, and no team is going to waste a bench spot for 1B only guy.

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#38 Deduno Abides

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 06:12 PM

Stewart or Jorge?
Diaz or Palka?
Burdi or R. Rosario?

I’d probably go with the first in all three sets.

Palka would be the one I’d miss the most, so I’d try to trade him now.
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#39 Deduno Abides

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 06:17 PM

Re: Navaretto: Unless he can hit his way out of a paper bag (.550 OPS this season), he does not belong to this discussion. Rainis Silva should be on the bubble, since a. he is better as a catcher and b. seems to have learned how to hit his way out of a paper back last season.


Yes. It’s sort of Hoover damming (family site), but Turner is a much better hitter than Navaretto.

#40 Wizard11

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Posted 03 November 2017 - 12:13 AM

I think a reasonable argument can be made for cutting Phil Hughes loose. I think it is unlikely he is looked at as a future contributor and he is a sunk cost regardless. If he is only improbable at best as a future asset, why use a roster spot on him?
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