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Sickels Top 20

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#21 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:23 AM

 

C+ prospects don't move the needle on a trade.

 

Problem with c+ is that there are two types of guys here. Guys like Badoo last year, for instance, who had upside, but a lot of question marks. Suddenly, Badoo is much higher now b/c of how well he's adjusted. The upside is still there. The other side is guys who are more of the sure thing with modest (if any at all) upside. I wouldn't say that they won't move the needle, but having guys like that is a requirement as they are the types that get thrown in to mitigate risk in a trade. Gordon may be the centerpiece of a trade that brings back pitching. Several of those C+ guys go along, in large part, to mitigate risk of Gordon failing.


#22 gunnarthor

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:34 AM

 

C+ prospects don't move the needle on a trade.

Sure they do. Liriano was a C prospect that the Twins held out for in the AJ trade. 

https://www.minorlea...ancisco-liriano

 

 

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#23 drjim

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:48 AM

 

Sure they do. Liriano was a C prospect that the Twins held out for in the AJ trade. 

https://www.minorlea...ancisco-liriano

 

Held out seems like the wrong way to think of it. He was a third piece added to top a relatively equal trade. C+ prospects can do that, assuming that the top pieces are in place. When looking at the pitchers people keep calling for the Twins to acquire, they don't have the top end pieces to put a deal together, and no number of C+ prospects can overcome that.

 

The good thing about the Twins C+ prospects are that several of them could emerge this year. Some always do, so a high volume is desirable.

Papers...business papers.

#24 Vanimal46

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:50 AM

Diaz is too high, and Baddoo too low for my taste. The rest looks about right. 

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#25 howieramone2

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 08:44 AM

 

It will be a lot longer rebuild if they missed on Gordon, Stewart, Jay and Kiriloff......let's hope not.....

 

I never see these guys play, I can only go on what others say on line and stats....but Badoo seems under rated as a rule. And I am a big Thorpe believer for some reason.

Actually, the rebuild is over. Fine tuning etc., never ends, but our favorite team will be in the hunt every year for the forseeable future. I can't think of any mid-market team that has ever done a complete rebuild in only 6 years. This is TR's greatest accomplishment and I do expect he'll be offered a position once again this off season or no later than next. Falvey said it recently. They need to create a different type of organization, because neither he not Levine have anywhere near TR's scouting expertise.

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Just a reminder to the fair weather fans. The weather is fair, and will be for quite some time.


#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 08:46 AM

Is it possible not to turn this into another "Ryan is awesome" vs "three of the players were here before the rebuild started" thread? Can we just talk about these prospects, please?

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#27 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 09:23 AM

by the way, it's worth noting some of the comments on Sickle's article. Having 20 guys that could B- and above is a very deep system.

 

While still lacking on the top end sure thing side of things, this team has a lot of high ceiling guys that can either supplement the team long term or be used as trade chips in the short term.

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#28 kab21

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 10:10 AM

 

Each of the last two seasons he's had well over an .800 OPS late into the year and then tailed off as the season lengthened. I don't know if that's a league figuring him out or him tiring out. I tend to lean towards tiring out, especially as he maintained that OPS for much longer this year. While Gordon certainly has some question marks, I do think that he's likely a .750+ OPS guy at SS in the majors... that's a decent player.

I think you are likely talking about a sample size issue.

 

I also think it is a tad optimistic to project someone to hit for a .750 OPS in the MAJORS when that is the best he has ever done in the minors. He remains a very good prospect due to his age relative to level and tools but right now his ranking is based on him making significant improvements in several areas. Sometimes these things happen and sometimes they don't. He was clearly overrated (esp on this board) when he had a .400 (or something silly) BAPIP. 

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Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#29 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 10:21 AM

 

I think you are likely talking about a sample size issue.

 

I also think it is a tad optimistic to project someone to hit for a .750 OPS in the MAJORS when that is the best he has ever done in the minors. He remains a very good prospect due to his age relative to level and tools but right now his ranking is based on him making significant improvements in several areas. Sometimes these things happen and sometimes they don't. He was clearly overrated (esp on this board) when he had a .400 (or something silly) BAPIP. 

 

That's fair. I just look at the fact that the better part of two seasons, he has hit the cover off of the ball only to fade into the end of said seasons. Add in his age relative to league and I think you are looking at an above average defender that can hit in the .750-.800 OPS type range. Likewise, I don't think he's top 100 if there's little projection left in the bat...

 

But yes, we are definitely talking small samples. I won't argue that.


#30 gunnarthor

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 11:54 AM

 

by the way, it's worth noting some of the comments on Sickle's article. Having 20 guys that could B- and above is a very deep system.

.

I think this is the big thing for me. The Twins really have done a nice job of getting depth in our system and the depth is both in pitching and hitting. Without getting into blaming/crediting whomever, we've seen a lot of different types of guys get mentioned. Big international signings (Javier), small international signings (Thorpe), top of the draft guys (Lewis), late round picks (Wade), overslot deals (Enlow), guys from other systems (Littell), injury comebacks (Graterol). 

 

I don't think we're as top heavy as we were a few years ago when Buxton, Sano and Berrios dominated lists but we might have more depth from even that time (when our second top 10 was better than the Angels top 10).

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#31 birdwatcher

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 12:17 PM

 

Sometimes, you don't even have to see them play.Baddoo looks like Adrian Peterson on his heyday...

 

 

Funny, but I saw a comparison to Angel Morales myself. ;)

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#32 birdwatcher

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 12:45 PM

 

by the way, it's worth noting some of the comments on Sickle's article. Having 20 guys that could B- and above is a very deep system.

 

While still lacking on the top end sure thing side of things, this team has a lot of high ceiling guys that can either supplement the team long term or be used as trade chips in the short term.

 

 

This is an important observation. Additionally, 38 of the 61 prospects mentioned are pitchers, two thirds. Granted, a majority of the most highly regarded prospects are position players, but as you and others point out, with Sickle's C+ prospects, it's a numbers game where the odds are actually fairly high that you'll see a bunch of those C+'s converted to B's. And maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part, but I am encouraged by the fact that a number of those names in the final clump of straight C prospects are names that have generated some excitement in the recent past, C+ guys like Tyler Watson, Lachlan Wells, even Kohl Stewart have fairly realistic shots at making a MLB roster some day. But so do some of the C guys like Chargois, Reed, and Vasquez.

Edited by birdwatcher, 25 October 2017 - 12:49 PM.

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#33 Deduno Abides

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 01:06 PM

Putting aside the rankings, which are arbitrary and irrelevant to what the player does on the field and where he ends up, Sickels’s comments about each player seemed very reasonable.
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#34 dbminn

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 01:19 PM

It's true there's a gap between the players already on the Twins and the next big wave. But the rankings can be a bit deceptive. Relief pitching is the one position that will never get a high ranking. The Twins have several RP that are close to having an impact for the Twins. And it's the position where the Twins really need help.

 

Jay, Chargois, Curtiss, Reed, Burdi, Bard and Moya should all be ready to play at some point in 2018. None of them get a grade higher than B-/C+. If just two of them contribute next year they will be worth a lot more than their rankings.

 

Edited by dbminn, 25 October 2017 - 01:20 PM.

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#35 Taildragger8791

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 03:27 PM

 

It's true there's a gap between the players already on the Twins and the next big wave. But the rankings can be a bit deceptive. Relief pitching is the one position that will never get a high ranking. The Twins have several RP that are close to having an impact for the Twins. And it's the position where the Twins really need help.

 

Jay, Chargois, Curtiss, Reed, Burdi, Bard and Moya should all be ready to play at some point in 2018. None of them get a grade higher than B-/C+. If just two of them contribute next year they will be worth a lot more than their rankings.

 

That's largely because minor league relievers are huge question marks. They often drop off considerably or don't pan out at all despite putting up dominant numbers. Then add to that the fact that pretty much everyone on your list, while clearly talented, has serious health or control issues to get past before they'll be dependable major leaguers.

 

Personally, I wouldn't plan for any of them in 2018 considering how that strategy imploded in the first month of this past season. If a couple of them end up being available and ready then that's wonderful, I'm sure the Twins will have no problem finding a spot for them considering the turnover rate on relievers is so high anyways.

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#36 birdwatcher

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 05:00 PM

 

That's largely because minor league relievers are huge question marks. They often drop off considerably or don't pan out at all despite putting up dominant numbers. Then add to that the fact that pretty much everyone on your list, while clearly talented, has serious health or control issues to get past before they'll be dependable major leaguers.

 

Personally, I wouldn't plan for any of them in 2018 considering how that strategy imploded in the first month of this past season. If a couple of them end up being available and ready then that's wonderful, I'm sure the Twins will have no problem finding a spot for them considering the turnover rate on relievers is so high anyways.

 

Good point. I hope they sign one RP better than anyone they had in the pen at the end of the season. Relievers are a volatile but liquid asset, so trading surplus relief help in a seller's market can be a good way to build some extra value in the system. But I also think the situation isn't as dire as is often described because of the sheer number of guys who look like they might end up being pretty good. I mean, we have two full bullpens worth of guys that might turn out fine. They're going to HAVE to plan on some of these guys panning out for them. Some were starting to already.

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#37 old nurse

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 05:01 PM

Luis Arreaz 21 A+,Charlie Barnes 22 A , Landon Leach, 18, Rk,Jose Miranda, 20 Rk,Rotevelt, 20 A Lachlan Wells 21 A+6 players who still are very young with a C+ Grade and have time to develop.

Arias, 20, Balazovic 19,Moran 21, Valdez18 as C level prospects still have plenty of time to develop.

That is 10 young players that have plenty of time to develop intobetter players. Already somebody thinks they have a decent shot at contributing at the major league level.Give them time. Yup wait until next year

 

Edited by old nurse, 25 October 2017 - 05:02 PM.

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#38 mikelink45

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 05:21 PM

This confirms my belief that Gonsalves and Romero have to be in the rotation and we should stop wishing for big FA signings.Get the young arms in the majors. 

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#39 kab21

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:19 PM

 

This confirms my belief that Gonsalves and Romero have to be in the rotation and we should stop wishing for big FA signings.Get the young arms in the majors. 

I definitely don't see that in his comments. I see mid rotation potential and could be a #3 if healthy and should be ready sometime in 2018. With the lack of any sort of depth in the rotation I think this is a bad plan.

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Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#40 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 06:02 AM

yeah, these guys are depth for 2018. It's nice in that we have a fairly nice stable of young arms that we can throw at the inevitable injury (Gonsalves, Stewart, Littell, Slegers, Romero, Jorge, and maybe even Rodriguez). That gives us the option to bring one in and see if he's ready and make a quick switch if he isn't. That's nice.

 

That said, going north with a couple of those guys come spring really does hurt the depth side of things. If a guy fails, you've got less replacements and the team could easily take a step backwards in 2018. Because of the arms that are near ready, it could be that the front office might choose to find someone on a shorter contract knowing that someone will likely have proved his worth by 2019.

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