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Article: Diving Into The Offseason: A Sano Extension?

miguel sano paul goldschmidt david wright byron buxton brian dozier
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#21 laloesch

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 07:52 AM

I don't think he signs an extension with the 

 

I think Sano wants to play in the Big Apple.  Manage his playing time and salary accordingly.  His value as a (designated?) hitter will determine long term pay.  His value as a fielder will decrease over time until it reaches Ortizian levels.

 

In the current MLB roster crunch where teams need to carry 13 pitchers, a full-time bench player is a liability for many teams.

 

I was about to say he spends a lot of time there in the offseason.I wonder if he even signs an extension with the Twins.If he turns down one or two reasonable offers they need to trade him in a package for an ace caliper pitcher i think.

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#22 raindog

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 07:55 AM

God, I hate that Souhan and his ilk have influenced fan's opinions on Sano. The guy works hard. Lock him up. 

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#23 laloesch

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 07:56 AM

 

Nope.

 

I go year to year with this guy.

 

Make him work, make him prove it.

 

He does not respond well to being on easy street.

 

 I agree in principal as well.He needs to prove it.I wouldn't throw him everything at once.I respect him as a hitter and how he has improved at 3rd but i need to see more. Buxton is a much easier decision if you ask me, but Sano not so sure yet.  


#24 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 08:05 AM

 

This seems pretty light for Sano. I don't see what he gains from giving up prime earning years at such a discount.

 

Way light.

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#25 Vanimal46

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 08:28 AM

Just like Buxton, whatever it takes to get it done I'm on board with. Both him and Buxton will most likely need north of $100 million to consider an extension. 

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#26 Tom Froemming

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 08:38 AM

While statistical analysis has evolved greatly, the valuation process in arbitration hasn't, and I don't believe it will. Sano puts up the kind of numbers that make you the big bucks in arbitration (HRs & RBIs mostly) so I think it would be a good idea for the Twins to try to get some cost certainty and lock him up.

 

But, if they're going to try to do it this winter, I'd expect a bit of an uncertainty discount given his injury. If he really ends up needing a titanium rod in his leg, who knows how he comes back from that.

 

With all that said, I doubt anything gets done. It's just kinda weird timing for both sides.

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#27 dbminn

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 09:48 AM

I would support signing Sano through two years of free agency. I'm not optimistic it will happen this offseason. Sano's injury could make the spread between asking price and the Twins offer too big to overcome. I hope they at least discuss the possibility.

 

I think Seth's numbers are a little light but not unreasonable. Here is a look at the contracts of some players who have gone year to year. MLB Trade Rumors predicted 2018 arbitration values and 2017 actual contracts are as follows:

 

Kris Bryant (2018, year 1) $8M

Anthony Rendon (2017 actual, yr 1) $5.8M; (2018, yr 2) $11.8M

Manny Machado (2017 actual, yr 2) $11.5M; (2018, yr 3) $17.3M

 

Sano can bet on himself and pull these types of salaries in his arbitration years. Sano's problem is he hasn't performed like any of the listed players to this point. Not even close. Each of these players had at least one 6.0 WAR season before entering their arbitration years. 

 

Give Sano a $4M bonus this year. I'd offer him $5/$10/$15 for his arb years and $20/$25 for two years of free agency, for a total of $80M for six years. This contract is probably 80-85% of what he could make going year to year, at maximum potential. That's a lot of money for a player who has yet to have a 3.0 WAR year and looking at surgery. 

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#28 kellyvance

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 09:55 AM

Too low by far.  If he is the real deal, then pay him what he is worth and have an incentive clause for his reducing his (dinner) plate appearances 


#29 Jham

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 01:00 PM

A couple things. First, we need to stop pretending that people are that calling out "warning signs" is a media-driven witch hunt. Concerns about Sano's work ethic stem from real evidence. First, his public struggle with weight leads people to questioning his conditioning and effort. His refusal to play winter ball after his rookie year begged the question. There was that weird spring training story where the twins reported he was taking extra fly balls to prepare for right field, but it turned out he want even back in the US yet. Right field was a stupid experiment in hindsight, but if he didn't prepare, it's partly on him. I think it's fair to question his work ethic based on facts alone. I don't think anyone has said he's lazy. But concern is prudent at this stage. As his k-rate and good to great, but not elite production and peripherals at each stage.

My guess is that he'll want to be paid like an elite player, even if he's simply a star slugger. $100 mil minimum. Regarding NYC, his agency is a sports and entertainment agency owned by the owner of the Brooklyn Nets who raps that he makes a Yankees cap more famous than a Yankee can and gets Alicia Keyes to sing the virtues of the city that never sleeps.

If we're going to extend, I'd weight the front end. Your budget isn't as ham-strung that way, Sano "needs"/ would appreciate more money earlier in his career and thus be more likely to agree to a discount, and his contract is more liquid as a trade asset vs. possibility of being completely immovable later (his contract, not his size).
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#30 drjim

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 01:07 PM

A couple things. First, we need to stop pretending that people are that calling out "warning signs" is a media-driven witch hunt. Concerns about Sano's work ethic stem from real evidence. First, his public struggle with weight leads people to questioning his conditioning and effort. His refusal to play winter ball after his rookie year begged the question. There was that weird spring training story where the twins reported he was taking extra fly balls to prepare for right field, but it turned out he want even back in the US yet. Right field was a stupid experiment in hindsight, but if he didn't prepare, it's partly on him. I think it's fair to question his work ethic based on facts alone. I don't think anyone has said he's lazy. But concern is prudent at this stage. As his k-rate and good to great, but not elite production and peripherals at each stage.

My guess is that he'll want to be paid like an elite player, even if he's simply a star slugger. $100 mil minimum. Regarding NYC, his agency is a sports and entertainment agency owned by the owner of the Brooklyn Nets who raps that he makes a Yankees cap more famous than a Yankee can and gets Alicia Keyes to sing the virtues of the city that never sleeps.

If we're going to extend, I'd weight the front end. Your budget isn't as ham-strung that way, Sano "needs"/ would appreciate more money earlier in his career and thus be more likely to agree to a discount, and his contract is more liquid as a trade asset vs. possibility of being completely immovable later (his contract, not his size).


The failure of the RF experiment was large part on Sano, that always struck me as obvious. And I agree that it should have served more of a red flag at the time, but it is always easier to blame management and defend the star. (Which isn't to say moving him to RF was a good idea, but a committed player would have made it much less a fiasco).
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#31 snap4birds

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 02:40 PM

I thought it would be interesting to see where Sano would rank at your proposed salaries, so I looked up this salary info on spotrac.Since 2022 would be the 1st possible year for Sano on a FA contract, I looked at that year & your projected salary of 16 million.There will be 63 players making 16 million or more in 2018.There are 12 players signed to contracts for 16 million or more in 2022 at this point.If he were to sign this contract, it seems like he'd be somewhere around 70th to 80th in 2022 in the salary rankings.  

Granted there is a lot of value in locking in that much guaranteed salary this far away (the rest of us can only dream....).And he might be locking in some extra money in those arb years.But I'm thinking Sano wouldn't want to restrict himself to this degree.Most professional athletes are pretty confident in their abilities.

(There are 10 contracts for 20 million or more in 2022, and 4 of 25 million or more.2022 is the last year spotrac has data for....)

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#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 02:51 PM

 

I thought it would be interesting to see where Sano would rank at your proposed salaries, so I looked up this salary info on spotrac.Since 2022 would be the 1st possible year for Sano on a FA contract, I looked at that year & your projected salary of 16 million.There will be 63 players making 16 million or more in 2018.There are 12 players signed to contracts for 16 million or more in 2022 at this point.If he were to sign this contract, it seems like he'd be somewhere around 70th to 80th in 2022 in the salary rankings.  

Granted there is a lot of value in locking in that much guaranteed salary this far away (the rest of us can only dream....).And he might be locking in some extra money in those arb years.But I'm thinking Sano wouldn't want to restrict himself to this degree.Most professional athletes are pretty confident in their abilities.

(There are 10 contracts for 20 million or more in 2022, and 4 of 25 million or more.2022 is the last year spotrac has data for....)

 

cool stuff! thanks for doing that.

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#33 Deduno Abides

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 04:55 PM

I’m not aware of players with Sano’s “shape” having long careers. Players who come to mind are Pablo Sandoval and Kent Hrbek. I have no idea if it’s work ethic, diet or bad luck, but he has battled weight issues the last two years, even after reporting to camp in good shape in 2017, and suffered from pulls, strains and stress fractures that are commonly related to either bad fitness or trying do things that your body doesn’t tolerate. He’s on a career path that could fizzle out around when he turns 30.

Right now, it seems at least as likely that he turns into Chris Carter as it does that he turns into Giancarlo Stanton. It will be OK to wait (pun partially intended).

#34 Deduno Abides

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 05:01 PM

The failure of the RF experiment was large part on Sano, that always struck me as obvious. And I agree that it should have served more of a red flag at the time, but it is always easier to blame management and defend the star. (Which isn't to say moving him to RF was a good idea, but a committed player would have made it much less a fiasco).


Have to agree with this, even though it was a bizarre move. Aaron Judge shows that being a big guy isn’t a great excuse for being a poor outfielder.

#35 Deduno Abides

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 05:14 PM

I would support signing Sano through two years of free agency. I'm not optimistic it will happen this offseason. Sano's injury could make the spread between asking price and the Twins offer too big to overcome. I hope they at least discuss the possibility.

I think Seth's numbers are a little light but not unreasonable. Here is a look at the contracts of some players who have gone year to year. MLB Trade Rumors predicted 2018 arbitration values and 2017 actual contracts are as follows:

Kris Bryant (2018, year 1) $8M
Anthony Rendon (2017 actual, yr 1) $5.8M; (2018, yr 2) $11.8M
Manny Machado (2017 actual, yr 2) $11.5M; (2018, yr 3) $17.3M

Sano can bet on himself and pull these types of salaries in his arbitration years. Sano's problem is he hasn't performed like any of the listed players to this point. Not even close. Each of these players had at least one 6.0 WAR season before entering their arbitration years.

Give Sano a $4M bonus this year. I'd offer him $5/$10/$15 for his arb years and $20/$25 for two years of free agency, for a total of $80M for six years. This contract is probably 80-85% of what he could make going year to year, at maximum potential. That's a lot of money for a player who has yet to have a 3.0 WAR year and looking at surgery.

Miguel Sano is 24-1/2 and has 5.6 career fWAR. By the time Machado, Rendon and Bryant were that age, each of them had had single seasons with more fWAR. They are all well-rounded players. Sano doesn’t compare at all to them.
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#36 Rosterman

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 06:56 PM

There is quite a big picture outlook the Twins front office has to look at. Who will play where in 2018. Who is around and playing where in 2019 and 2020. Who is in the pipeline to replace (say our outfielders, for sure). What players can offer position change.

 

In Sano's case, will he be the second coming of David Ortiz, someone who can play DH mostly for the next 14 years at whatever is considered a good solid average major league salary (probably $20-25 million as we get into his thirties). Is that worth it. Will he sustain? Can you go for a 10-year deal?

 

Is the Twins DH of the near future a Dozier or Mauer? Who plays first in the longer runoo

The front office should have a pretty giid idea of how the roster will shake out for the next three seasons right now, and a solid idea of who they hope to retain up to five years from now.

 

 

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#37 EddieMatthews

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Posted 20 October 2017 - 06:32 AM

 

What leads you to think this, if I may ask?

No specific info, just IMHO.  He's Dominican, large contingent of his people in NYC, and he has spent time there in the off-season.  It has nothing to do with the current 3B situation for the Yanks, where they play Headley (age 33) and Frazier (age 31) and get mediocre results there.  Plus, what up and coming star doesn't want to play in Yankee Stadium?


#38 Vanimal46

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Posted 20 October 2017 - 08:27 AM

Comparing Sano to Pablo Sandoval is a lazy, false narrative. Miguel Sano is a 6'4" man built like a tree. Pablo Sandoval is a 5'11" slap hitter. Just stop with this. 

Edited by Vanimal46, 20 October 2017 - 08:27 AM.

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#39 laloesch

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Posted 20 October 2017 - 10:02 AM

 

Comparing Sano to Pablo Sandoval is a lazy, false narrative. Miguel Sano is a 6'4" man built like a tree. Pablo Sandoval is a 5'11" slap hitter. Just stop with this. 

 

lol, Pablo Sandoval is not a slap hitter, talk about false narrative.


#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 October 2017 - 10:05 AM

 

lol, Pablo Sandoval is not a slap hitter, talk about false narrative.

 

It's almost like the main point of being 5 inches shorter wasn't even in the post......*

 

*note, I have no idea if that is an exaggeration or not, but it was the actual point.

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