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Article: Expansion Could Alter MLB's Landscape

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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 08:20 AM

 

But the revenue has to be split 32 ways instead of 30.

 

don't forget, more playoff games=more league revenue. Also, more revenue from hats, jerseys, etc. due to 2 more teams.

 

But, I think your point, overall, has merit.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 08:21 AM

 

Nashville would be a good option along with Charlotte, Raleigh, even Oklahoma City.They need more teams in the south and central US.Move the Rays out of Florida and if the A's can't secure a new stadium move them as well.

 

Imagine trying to convince a FA to move to OK City. Even the NBA, with all its money, struggles with that. 

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#23 drjim

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 08:21 AM

I would guess there is expansion of two teams, a change to 4 divisions of 4 teams, no change to basic league structure/rules and the same number of games.

 

Assuming it is Portland and Montreal, and Oakland stays in Bay Area (maybe San Jose) and Tampa stays in the south, I'd probably do this:

 

AL West

Seattle

Portland

LA Angels

Oakland

 

AL South

Texas

Houston

Kansas City

Tampa

 

AL North

Minnesota

Chicago

Detroit

Cleveland

 

AL East

Boston

New York

Toronto

Baltimore

 

NL West

San Francisco

LA Dodgers

San Diego

Arizona

 

NL South

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

Atlanta

Miami

 

NL North

Colorado

Milwaukee

St Louis

Chicago

 

NL East

Montreal

New York

Washington

Philadelphia

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#24 DocBauer

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 08:25 AM

32 is a better number, no question. But I wonder if expansion creates more problems than it solves.

There is such a dearth of quality pitching already, and would be made that much worse with expansion. Further, the revenue imbalance persists and would, I propose, continue with 32 teams. Would any of the proposed markets prove viable long term financially through fan support and various radio and cable packages? Or would they be adding a pair of bottom market teams that perpetually struggle to compete, much like a few of the more recent NBA franchises?

I know it still comes down to ownership and the running of a team properly from top to bottom, but the means to acquire players, and keep them, is still heavily weighted at the top of MLB and I don't see a solution coming any time soon.

If it happens, keep both leagues, keep them as intact as possible, and have even divisions in both leagues.
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#25 Taildragger8791

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 08:29 AM

32 teams is great from a scheduling and division alignment perspective. But it seems to me it would just further water down a sport that already doesn't have enough good players to field more than a 5-6 truly competitive teams at a time (and maybe another 5-6 borderline wildcard teams). Of course, that's true in every sport but it bothers me in the NFL and NBA as well. I know it's unrealistic but things would get really interesting if the talent were concentrated into 16 or 24 teams instead of 32. Maybe a relegation/promotion system to push the worst 16 teams into their own division? That would help take care of tanking as well, although I suppose then this wild Twins season wouldn't have happened. Oh well, in the end the bottom dollar always wins out.

Edited by Taildragger8791, 17 October 2017 - 08:34 AM.

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#26 Vanimal46

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 08:39 AM

 

32 is a better number, no question. But I wonder if expansion creates more problems than it solves.

There is such a dearth of quality pitching already, and would be made that much worse with expansion. Further, the revenue imbalance persists and would, I propose, continue with 32 teams. Would any of the proposed markets prove viable long term financially through fan support and various radio and cable packages? Or would they be adding a pair of bottom market teams that perpetually struggle to compete, much like a few of the more recent NBA franchises?

I know it still comes down to ownership and the running of a team properly from top to bottom, but the means to acquire players, and keep them, is still heavily weighted at the top of MLB and I don't see a solution coming any time soon.

If it happens, keep both leagues, keep them as intact as possible, and have even divisions in both leagues.

 

You hit the nail right on the head, Doc. It's already a problem identifying good pitching and keeping them healthy between 30 teams as us Twins fans know. I could only imagine the AAAA fodder that we'll see with 2 new teams in the league. 

 

If anything, I think they should relocate some existing teams to different cities, and keep the number at 30 teams. Move a low revenue team such as the Tampa Rays to Nashville, North Carolina, etc. 


#27 ashburyjohn

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 08:47 AM

This has been things I like and don't like. See you next time.

Not finding a Don't Like button, I clicked Like. :)

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#28 DJL44

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 10:42 AM

I don't see a lack of quality pitching, I see a ball that is way too easy to hit over the fence. Strikeouts are at an all-time high (good pitching), batting average are slightly below historical averages (.255 v .260 to .265) and HR are way up. With fewer HR nobody would think there isn't enough good pitching.

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#29 Carole Keller

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 10:49 AM

I would guess there is expansion of two teams, a change to 4 divisions of 4 teams, no change to basic league structure/rules and the same number of games.

Assuming it is Portland and Montreal, and Oakland stays in Bay Area (maybe San Jose) and Tampa stays in the south, I'd probably do this:

AL West
Seattle
Portland
LA Angels
Oakland

AL South
Texas
Houston
Kansas City
Tampa

AL North
Minnesota
Chicago
Detroit
Cleveland

AL East
Boston
New York
Toronto
Baltimore

NL West
San Francisco
LA Dodgers
San Diego
Arizona

NL South
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Atlanta
Miami

NL North
Colorado
Milwaukee
St Louis
Chicago

NL East
Montreal
New York
Washington
Philadelphia

This is nearly identical to what I suggested in post 8, except I'd put Washington in the south, not Pittsburgh, since Washington is, well, further south. And I called the North division the Midwest division, as I thought that suited better. But what the divisions are called matters not. But I think ScottyB in post 5 got the alignments right by moving Tampa into the NL and Colorado into the AL.

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#30 DJL44

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 10:50 AM

Expansion would be a net bonus for revenue. National TV would be worth more as there would be more markets actively engaged in watching baseball. Attendance and other stadium revenue would just push nearly the same amount of people into 78 games instead of 81. Most people watch 1-5 games a year in person and they would still be able to do so.

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#31 Taildragger8791

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 11:21 AM

 

I don't see a lack of quality pitching, I see a ball that is way too easy to hit over the fence. Strikeouts are at an all-time high (good pitching), batting average are slightly below historical averages (.255 v .260 to .265) and HR are way up. With fewer HR nobody would think there isn't enough good pitching.

 

The increase in K's and HRs are connected though. Hitters recognized the value in selling out to do damage on one swing instead of just trying to get on base in strikeout counts. Thus, more K's and more HRs. That's where your biggest spikes in numbers are coming from.

 

The increase in K's can also be attributed to the intentional focus on developing strikeout pitchers supplemented with more aggressive bullpen usage. I don't believe we're seeing an unusual abundance of elite starters mowing down the league 7-8 innings at a time. Teams are just going after the K with more intent because they recognize the value in it.


#32 ashburyjohn

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 11:44 AM

This is nearly identical to what I suggested in post 8, except I'd put Washington in the south, not Pittsburgh, since Washington is, well, further south.

It's hard to place Washington. President Kennedy liked to say that it was a city of Northern charm and Southern efficiency

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#33 Carole Keller

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 11:57 AM

It's hard to place Washington. President Kennedy liked to say that it was a city of Northern charm and Southern efficiency

Heh, well ... for this exercise, it's actually more difficult to place Pittsburgh.

I think it would be better to add a team in the south somewhere, and not Montreal. There are already a large clump of teams in the broader NE sector.
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#34 laloesch

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 11:58 AM

 

Imagine trying to convince a FA to move to OK City. Even the NBA, with all its money, struggles with that. 

 

How bout Vegas then?At the same time the league could reinstate Pete Rose :)

 

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#35 ashburyjohn

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 12:12 PM

Heh, well ... for this exercise, it's actually more difficult to place Pittsburgh.

I think it would be better to add a team in the south somewhere, and not Montreal. There are already a large clump of teams in the broader NE sector.

JFK's thoughts concerning Pittsburgh apparently were unprintable because I didn't find any.

 

There's a large clump of people in the NE sector. It's possible the area is underrepresented. There's been talk of putting a third NY team at Coney Island in Brooklyn, for example.

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#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 12:25 PM

Estimates are each existing team would get a check for 30-60MM on the day the franchise are sold, maybe up to 70MM.

 

That makes up for missing 6 games a year pretty fast.....

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#37 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 12:27 PM

JFK's thoughts concerning Pittsburgh apparently were unprintable because I didn't find any.

I'd hate to think about what he said of my little home town - not even gonna try to Google it :)
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#38 Carole Keller

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 12:39 PM

While I think the 4-team divisions and keeping the NL/AL somewhat intact is the better model by far, how would you make the 8-team divisions, and not keeping the NL/AL in tact? (I just can't come up with 8-team divisions, keeping travel in mind, that keeps the AL/NL in tact.) I think what was proposed was just ... wrong, especially since they are trying to consider travel costs. MN might be further north, but it's also further west than a lot of other 'northern' teams. It just doesn't make sense to have Twins in the same division with the eastern most teams. Either Chicago team would make more sense than that, imo, both still are considered northern, too.

NE division: Boston, Montreal, New York Yankees and Mets, Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit, Chi Sox

SE division: Baltimore, DC, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Miami, Tampa, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh.

(If Montreal is not an expansion team, and they added one somewhere in the broader SE quarter of the U.S., I'd move Pittsburgh to the NE in place of Montreal, and add the expansion team to the SE. Or, as Ash suggested a 3rd NY team, that would replace Montreal.)

Central division: Milwaukee, Chi Cubs, Minnesota, St. Louis, KC, Houston, Rangers, Colorado

West: Seattle, Portland, San Fran, Oakland, Anaheim, LA, SD, Phoenix

No matter how you would do it, it would turn baseball upside down. I just think this whole 'expansion and then what' speculation would kill the sport if followed through on.
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#39 Vanimal46

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 01:00 PM

 

Central division: Milwaukee, Chi Cubs, Minnesota, St. Louis, KC, Houston, Rangers, Colorado

 

This division would be brutal to be in. Not that I disagree from a geography standpoint, it would just be very difficult to win division titles against Houston, Cubs, St. Louis, and Texas.  


#40 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 01:08 PM

As others said, talent will be diluted.

You might also find that longer games have accompanied prior MLB expansions, if so, maybe lesser pitching talent is a factor there, not sure. Maybe Manfred is already bored with his pet issue of shortening games.
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