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IMO, this is why you acquire SP from outside

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#1 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 08:50 AM

I keep reading that a team shouldn't sign FA pitchers, because they don't always work out. Or, that a team shouldn't trade "real" prospects for good MLB pitchers because you can't sustain a team if you trade your prospects.

 

Here are the Twins' starters the last three years, that are not legit FA pitchers.....(that's ERA, if I knew how to post a table.....I'd show more)....so, it's not like going with AA, AAA, AAAA or cheap filler FA or trading low end guys for flyers actually works.....

 

2017 Jose Berrios 3.93
2017 Kyle Gibson 5.07
2017 Adalberto Mejia 4.5
2017 Bartolo Colon 5.18
2017 Jaime Garcia 4.05
2017 Hector Santiago 5.45
2017 Aaron Slegers 5.52
2017 Dillon Gee 7.11
2017 Tim Melville 13.5
2017 Adam Wilk 16.2
2017 Dietrich Enns 3.86
2017 Nick Tepesch 5.4
2017 Nik Turley 16.39
2017 Felix Jorge 10.57

 

2016 Kyle Gibson 5.07
2016 Tyler Duffey 6.43
2016 Tommy Milone 5.46
2016 Hector Santiago 5.58
2016 Alex Meyer 10.13
2016 Pat Dean 6.85
2016 Andrew Albers 9.45
2016 Jose Berrios 8.02

 

2015 Kyle Gibson 3.84
2015 Trevor May 4.43
2015 Tommy Milone 3.95
2015 Tyler Duffey 3.1
2015 J.R. Graham 2.25

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#2 gunnarthor

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 09:08 AM

Sure, and I'm not against signing a FA. You just don't want to kill your payroll flexibility since the Pohlads are likely keeping payroll low. In a different thread, I posted all the contracts from 2013-2016 that got more than Santana in FA and it was a pretty ugly list. I think the list was 17 or so pitchers and maybe three were clearly better than Santana.

 

I suspect the Twins will sign another pitcher who will make around 12m/year this offseason. Not sure how many years he'll get. But they shouldn't be investing heavily into pitchers for their age 33, 34 etc seasons. Twins can't hold a lot of dead money like other teams can.

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#3 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 09:21 AM

 

Sure, and I'm not against signing a FA. You just don't want to kill your payroll flexibility since the Pohlads are likely keeping payroll low. In a different thread, I posted all the contracts from 2013-2016 that got more than Santana in FA and it was a pretty ugly list. I think the list was 17 or so pitchers and maybe three were clearly better than Santana.

 

I suspect the Twins will sign another pitcher who will make around 12m/year this offseason. Not sure how many years he'll get. But they shouldn't be investing heavily into pitchers for their age 33, 34 etc seasons. Twins can't hold a lot of dead money like other teams can.

 

But then you aren't really signing a SP FA....since nearly all are 31 or older. That's my point.....not signing a FA looks pretty ugly also. 

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#4 kab21

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 09:31 AM

 

But then you aren't really signing a SP FA....since nearly all are 31 or older. That's my point.....not signing a FA looks pretty ugly also. 

Yes, every outside option has a flaw. There aren't 27 yr old strikeout pitchers with great SABR stats and no injury concerns available. If there was one then he would get signed for 30-40M/yr. 

Otani is pretty close to that profile though.The bidding would be absolutely crazy if he was on the open market.

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Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#5 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 09:40 AM

I fully believe the FO needs to bite down on the bullet and trade a player with real value for some pitching. That could have happened at the deadline this summer; it didn't, so it needs to happen this winter.
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#6 nicksaviking

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 09:54 AM

I don't want to waste the money on free agents as aside from one or two who likely will not be available to the Twons, none look like they can anchor a staff.

I'm all for trading for young arms though, preferably some that are still more speculative than proven. Proven guys usually means they've already peaked and will be more costly and will be gone sooner. My agreeability in hiring Falvey was because of the success Cleveland had in identifying and developing guys like Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer. In my view, that's what he was hired for. Time to get to work; I expect a similar remedy here.
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#7 Thrylos

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 09:57 AM

This team needs a couple of starters, in order to compete deep in the post-season.One at least at the Berrios level and one higher.Can they get one of the two in 2018 (any part of the season) from inside the organization? Unlikely.Both Romero and Gonsalves (check his AAA numbers) took a step backwards this season.Littel needs at least half a season of AA to prove himself.May is a question mark and Hughes is done. So not much inside, thus they have to look outside, both in trades and free agency, but the key is not to get pitchers at the Berrios level or lower...

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#8 gunnarthor

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 10:02 AM

 

But then you aren't really signing a SP FA....since nearly all are 31 or older. That's my point.....not signing a FA looks pretty ugly also. 

A one year deal for a guy - no matter his age - could work. Vargas? Feldman? Chatwood is only 28 next year. I just don't want to be paying 15m in 2020 to some guy who isn't going to be helping the team.


#9 USAFChief

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 10:50 AM

 

Sure, and I'm not against signing a FA. You just don't want to kill your payroll flexibility since the Pohlads are likely keeping payroll low. In a different thread, I posted all the contracts from 2013-2016 that got more than Santana in FA and it was a pretty ugly list. I think the list was 17 or so pitchers and maybe three were clearly better than Santana.

 

I suspect the Twins will sign another pitcher who will make around 12m/year this offseason. Not sure how many years he'll get. But they shouldn't be investing heavily into pitchers for their age 33, 34 etc seasons. Twins can't hold a lot of dead money like other teams can.

What's the point of maintaining payroll flexibility, if you'll never use that payroll flexibility, because doing so would kill your payroll flexibility?

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#10 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:00 AM

 

I keep reading that a team shouldn't sign FA pitchers, because they don't always work out. Or, that a team shouldn't trade "real" prospects for good MLB pitchers because you can't sustain a team if you trade your prospects.

 

Here are the Twins' starters the last three years, that are not legit FA pitchers.....(that's ERA, if I knew how to post a table.....I'd show more)....so, it's not like going with AA, AAA, AAAA or cheap filler FA or trading low end guys for flyers actually works.....

 

2017 Jose Berrios 3.93
2017 Kyle Gibson 5.07
2017 Adalberto Mejia 4.5
2017 Bartolo Colon 5.18
2017 Jaime Garcia 4.05
2017 Hector Santiago 5.45
2017 Aaron Slegers 5.52
2017 Dillon Gee 7.11
2017 Tim Melville 13.5
2017 Adam Wilk 16.2
2017 Dietrich Enns 3.86
2017 Nick Tepesch 5.4
2017 Nik Turley 16.39
2017 Felix Jorge 10.57

 

2016 Kyle Gibson 5.07
2016 Tyler Duffey 6.43
2016 Tommy Milone 5.46
2016 Hector Santiago 5.58
2016 Alex Meyer 10.13
2016 Pat Dean 6.85
2016 Andrew Albers 9.45
2016 Jose Berrios 8.02

 

2015 Kyle Gibson 3.84
2015 Trevor May 4.43
2015 Tommy Milone 3.95
2015 Tyler Duffey 3.1
2015 J.R. Graham 2.25

Perhaps I'm reading too much into the title, but I don't think anyone is disagreeing on getting help from the outside. I think we need to do it.I waffle personally on a 1 year make good deal with a guy with high upside vs. biting the bullet and getting the best FA out there. I don't really see an a middle ground option either (unless you count trades, which I'm in favor of).


#11 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:09 AM

 

Perhaps I'm reading too much into the title, but I don't think anyone is disagreeing on getting help from the outside. I think we need to do it.I waffle personally on a 1 year make good deal with a guy with high upside vs. biting the bullet and getting the best FA out there. I don't really see an a middle ground option either (unless you count trades, which I'm in favor of).

 

I read all the time "you can't sign a FA pitcher, he'll be too old by the end"......or "only 1/3 of FA pitchers work out, they are a bad investment"......or "you can't trade prospects, because you want the team to compete EVERY year". Lots of people are arguing hard against solutions that are not 1 year, or are cheap so you keep your financial flexibility, which you never use (as above)......

 

What are the odds a 1 year, make good, deal works out for that one year? Then, what do you do the next year, if you won't sign older players long term?

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#12 drjim

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:28 AM

 

Sure, and I'm not against signing a FA. You just don't want to kill your payroll flexibility since the Pohlads are likely keeping payroll low. In a different thread, I posted all the contracts from 2013-2016 that got more than Santana in FA and it was a pretty ugly list. I think the list was 17 or so pitchers and maybe three were clearly better than Santana.

 

I suspect the Twins will sign another pitcher who will make around 12m/year this offseason. Not sure how many years he'll get. But they shouldn't be investing heavily into pitchers for their age 33, 34 etc seasons. Twins can't hold a lot of dead money like other teams can.

 

This seems like a good year to add a 4 year FA pitcher. As mentioned above, what is the point of flexibility if you aren't going to use it? Use it right now!

 

And while it is true they can't hold a lot of dead money, they can still survive with some of it - having Hughes' corpse and an overpaid Mauer is going to kill them next year. They can carry a SP who is a little overpaid or perhaps even hurt and still put a competitive team out there. Santana is off after 18 (maybe 19 if option is picked up), Hughes after 19, and then it isn't clear who would be making big money in 20.

 

On the bigger point, this 4 year stretch is a really good financial window/cycle for them, it syncs up quite perfectly with the young guys all hitting free agency after 21, and there is enough money coming off the books in the next couple of seasons to balance out a free agent contract. If they can, say, sign a free agent pitcher for 4 years and extend Dozier for 3 more, they might be overpaying them both by the end, but they will come off the books right when the young guys are going to make big money.

 

Overpaying a starter now makes more sense than weakening another area through a trade. And the team doesn't have enough in the system to get a meaningful starter through that method.

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#13 gunnarthor

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:48 AM

 

What's the point of maintaining payroll flexibility, if you'll never use that payroll flexibility, because doing so would kill your payroll flexibility?

Well, since the Pohlads are cheap it's a long problem that the FO faces. They should never have to deal with dead money if they could help it.

 

You don't want a team that can't afford arb raises because we're paying the next Anibal Sanchez 48m for three more years to do nothing. You don't want to be unable to add a little payroll during the season to upgrade your bullpen.

 

I do agree that with Mauer coming off and the young core not getting too expensive quite yet, the Twins have some room for error after next season (we might only be able to add 20/yr in contracts this offseason) but that doesn't mean we should make risky/dangerous signings. Lance Lynn, for example, is at best a #3 pitcher, right? Is that the bet we want to make? Are you 4x more confident that he'll be better than Jason Vargas next year? If not, isn't Vargas on a one year deal a better idea?


#14 Loosey

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:52 AM

Based on Berrio's 2 year trend, he will have around a 2.00 ERA next year . . .:)

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#15 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:56 AM

 

Well, since the Pohlads are cheap it's a long problem that the FO faces. They should never have to deal with dead money if they could help it.

 

You don't want a team that can't afford arb raises because we're paying the next Anibal Sanchez 48m for three more years to do nothing. You don't want to be unable to add a little payroll during the season to upgrade your bullpen.

 

I do agree that with Mauer coming off and the young core not getting too expensive quite yet, the Twins have some room for error after next season (we might only be able to add 20/yr in contracts this offseason) but that doesn't mean we should make risky/dangerous signings. Lance Lynn, for example, is at best a #3 pitcher, right? Is that the bet we want to make? Are you 4x more confident that he'll be better than Jason Vargas next year? If not, isn't Vargas on a one year deal a better idea?

 

then what, after Vargas leaves? Find another 1 year deal that will be better than a number 3? And again. And again?

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#16 yarnivek1972

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:57 AM

Over the long run, a team is going to be better off developing it’s own pitchers. The Twins failure in that aspect is a major part of why Terry Ryan was fired. Obviously, there is no such thing as building a pitching staff from within in two offseasons.

When teams can’t do it, they are forced to overpay Ricky Nolasco and trade too much to get Matt Capps.

The Twins will never be able to build the bulk of their staff via free agency. The type of pitchers teams want are in short supply and high demand.

As for this offseason, I’m not sure what I think should happen. There is a school of thought that the Twins should go “all in” while Erv, Doz and Joe are under contract and at or near the top of their games.

Being realistic, to go “all in” the Twins need a bonafide ace starter, a shut down closer and at least one other top notch late inning reliever. They also need the core of the lineup to remain healthy and be at least as good as they were in 2017. Ideally, with natural progression improvement.

I’m not sure the Twins have the budget or the potential trade pieces to make that happen. That’s simply reality.
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#17 Loosey

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 12:04 PM

 

 Twins can't hold a lot of dead money like other teams can.

I don't like this story anymore.MSP is about 15th largest market in the country.Many other markets support multiple teams.Additionally, a lot of markets larger than Minneapolis/St. Paul are no where near as economically sound.Add in the fact the Pohlads are one of the wealthier ownership groups in baseball and the team still has a new stadium likely generating revenue and you should expect to be a top 10 payroll team especially when the team is now in it's window for winning.If they ever were to spend money, it would be now.

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#18 drjim

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 12:05 PM

 

Well, since the Pohlads are cheap it's a long problem that the FO faces. They should never have to deal with dead money if they could help it.

 

You don't want a team that can't afford arb raises because we're paying the next Anibal Sanchez 48m for three more years to do nothing. You don't want to be unable to add a little payroll during the season to upgrade your bullpen.

 

I do agree that with Mauer coming off and the young core not getting too expensive quite yet, the Twins have some room for error after next season (we might only be able to add 20/yr in contracts this offseason) but that doesn't mean we should make risky/dangerous signings. Lance Lynn, for example, is at best a #3 pitcher, right? Is that the bet we want to make? Are you 4x more confident that he'll be better than Jason Vargas next year? If not, isn't Vargas on a one year deal a better idea?

 

That is true about Lynn, but realistically what caliber of player do you expect to become available over the next couple of years? He'll be one of the top 7-8 pitchers (at worst) that can be signed in the next two seasons.

 

And the Pohlads aren't cheap. They're perfectly normal baseball owners. The front office has more than enough resources if they use them decently well.

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#19 drjim

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 12:09 PM

 

I don't like this story anymore.MSP is about 15th largest market in the country.Many other markets support multiple teams.Additionally, a lot of markets larger than Minneapolis/St. Paul are no where near as economically sound.Add in the fact the Pohlads are one of the wealthier ownership groups in baseball and the team still has a new stadium likely generating revenue and you should expect to be a top 10 payroll team especially when the team is now in it's window for winning.If they ever were to spend money, it would be now.

 

Top 10 would be a stretch, could only happen after a couple of years of winning and filling Target Field and maximizing revenues. They peaked at 9 in 2011, but a lot would have to go right to get back there. No reason they can't be in the 18ish range right now (they were 22 in 2017) and edge up as they have sustained success and increased revenues.

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#20 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 12:16 PM

 

Over the long run, a team is going to be better off developing it’s own pitchers. The Twins failure in that aspect is a major part of why Terry Ryan was fired. Obviously, there is no such thing as building a pitching staff from within in two offseasons.

When teams can’t do it, they are forced to overpay Ricky Nolasco and trade too much to get Matt Capps.

The Twins will never be able to build the bulk of their staff via free agency. The type of pitchers teams want are in short supply and high demand.

As for this offseason, I’m not sure what I think should happen. There is a school of thought that the Twins should go “all in” while Erv, Doz and Joe are under contract and at or near the top of their games.

Being realistic, to go “all in” the Twins need a bonafide ace starter, a shut down closer and at least one other top notch late inning reliever. They also need the core of the lineup to remain healthy and be at least as good as they were in 2017. Ideally, with natural progression improvement.

I’m not sure the Twins have the budget or the potential trade pieces to make that happen. That’s simply reality.

 

Of course it is better to be a mythical organization that develops all it's own talent and doesn't sign any FA or trade for anyone. But, that organization does not exist.

 

No one should have over paid for Capps. that was a bad trade. 

 

and what does "over pay" mean, if that is the price every year? That's the market price. Paying market price is pretty much by definition not over paying, isn't it?

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