Kiermaier posted a 7.3, and Simmons a 7.0 bWAR before cashing in. So, no. The numbers say “not yet” IMO. Odor and Yelich’s pre-contract bWARs weren’t as good as Buxton’s this year. But given their inconsistency since, it seems to reinforce the strategy of waiting. The Twins might be able to afford being wrong about one of them. They certainly can’t afford to be wrong about all 3. By that I mean if the Twins extend all 3 for the next 5 years and none of them live up to it, the franchise is destroyed for the next ten years.
As I said, those 3 simply haven’t been good enough to earn a long term commitment yet IMO.
Odor was a poor defender and barely average overall bat when the Rangers extended him. Peak of 2.4 bWAR at the time. That should hardly be a cautionary tale for Buxton.
Kiermaier and Simmons would be far better comps for Buxton, given their defensive prowess. Yelich too, albeit from a corner OF spot. All 3 have been solid since they signed their deals, averaging 4+ WAR per season.
Obviously there is risk, but I suspect if you wait to see anything more from Buxton, this type of deal will be off the table.