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Article: Knock. Knock. Silence.

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#41 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 11:36 AM

 

Kiermaier posted a 7.3, and Simmons a 7.0 bWAR before cashing in. So, no. The numbers say “not yet” IMO. Odor and Yelich’s pre-contract bWARs weren’t as good as Buxton’s this year. But given their inconsistency since, it seems to reinforce the strategy of waiting. The Twins might be able to afford being wrong about one of them. They certainly can’t afford to be wrong about all 3. By that I mean if the Twins extend all 3 for the next 5 years and none of them live up to it, the franchise is destroyed for the next ten years.

As I said, those 3 simply haven’t been good enough to earn a long term commitment yet IMO.

Odor was a poor defender and barely average overall bat when the Rangers extended him.  Peak of 2.4 bWAR at the time.  That should hardly be a cautionary tale for Buxton.

 

Kiermaier and Simmons would be far better comps for Buxton, given their defensive prowess.  Yelich too, albeit from a corner OF spot.  All 3 have been solid since they signed their deals, averaging 4+ WAR per season.

 

Obviously there is risk, but I suspect if you wait to see anything more from Buxton, this type of deal will be off the table.

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#42 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 11:55 AM

Odor was a poor defender and barely average overall bat when the Rangers extended him. Peak of 2.4 bWAR at the time. That should hardly be a cautionary tale for Buxton.

Kiermaier and Simmons would be far better comps for Buxton, given their defensive prowess. Yelich too, albeit from a corner OF spot. All 3 have been solid since they signed their deals, averaging 4+ WAR per season.

Obviously there is risk, but I suspect if you wait to see anything more from Buxton, this type of deal will be off the table.


I would agree that of the 3 Buxton is probably the lowest risk, simply because his defense is always going to be a huge part of his contribution.

That said, his peak is/was still substantially lower than Simmons and Kiermaier. If I only attempted one, he would definitely be the one I would try to do. Nothing prevents negotiating a deal mid-season next year either. That policy was an artificial excuse of the previous regime.

I still say wait and at least see how they start next season. Right now, a much higher risk of an extension falls on the Twins side IMO. It will even out after next year, or at least by midseason of next year.

#43 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:07 PM

 

I would agree that of the 3 Buxton is probably the lowest risk, simply because his defense is always going to be a huge part of his contribution.

That said, his peak is/was still substantially lower than Simmons and Kiermaier. If I only attempted one, he would definitely be the one I would try to do. Nothing prevents negotiating a deal mid-season next year either. That policy was an artificial excuse of the previous regime.

I still say wait and at least see how they start next season. Right now, a much higher risk of an extension falls on the Twins side IMO. It will even out after next year, or at least by midseason of next year.

Again, I don't know if you can wait, even just until midseason.  Simmons and Yelich were both 2 years away from arbitration when they signed; Kiermaier was 1-2 years away depending on the super-2 cutoff.  Buxton might not be likely to sign a similar deal now just 1 year away; he almost certainly will not when he is only ~3 months away.

 

If you are content with eventually signing a Dozier type arb buyout deal (a little arb discount, no FA/option years), sure, go ahead and wait.  If you want the chance to get a special player on a special deal, I think you have to act now (assuming it is still even possible).

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#44 USAFChief

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:11 PM

Again, I don't know if you can wait, even just until midseason. Simmons and Yelich were both 2 years away from arbitration when they signed; Kiermaier was 1-2 years away depending on the super-2 cutoff. Buxton might not be likely to sign a similar deal now just 1 year away; he almost certainly will not when he is only ~3 months away.

If you are content with eventually signing a Dozier type arb buyout deal (a little arb discount, no FA/option years), sure, go ahead and wait. If you want the chance to get a special player on a special deal, I think you have to act now (assuming it is still even possible).

I fear it might already be too late to get a decent discount. The incentives for Buxton to sign such a deal are melting away. His chances of not having an MLB career at this point are down to injury risk.
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#45 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:15 PM

 

I fear it might already be too late to get a decent discount.

Yeah, that's my fear too.  A normal player 1 year away would be fairly unlikely.  My hope is that Buxton's slow start might neutralize that a bit?

 

Then again, thanks to his signing bonus, Buxton has already pocketed about $6 mil more than Kiermaier at the same point last year...


#46 Seth Stohs

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:19 PM

 

As expensive as Mauer was, the organization would have been worse off not paying him the money. And I think the team got very good value from Dozier's mid-length deal. Same with Ervin. But there's always risk as we found out with Phil Hughes, and that's why it's a gamble. These six players all show signs of being valuable players, and for that reason it's probably in the best long-term interest of the team to pay long-term money. And don't forget that teams usually insure contracts to give the team relief in case of player injury.

 

Mauer signed one year later than where these guys are right now, and he signed a4 year, $33 million contract that bought out (I believe) one year of free agency. Then came the big deal. The Twins - under Ryan - signed a lot of guys to these types of deals, buying out 1-2 years of arbitration. They did it with Morneau, Cuddyer, Hunter, Johan and a few others. 


#47 drjim

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:42 PM

Yeah, that's my fear too. A normal player 1 year away would be fairly unlikely. My hope is that Buxton's slow start might neutralize that a bit?

Then again, thanks to his signing bonus, Buxton has already pocketed about $6 mil more than Kiermaier at the same point last year...


If it's too late for Buxton then they never really had a chance.
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#48 drjim

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:46 PM

Mauer signed one year later than where these guys are right now, and he signed a 4 year, $33 million contract that bought out (I believe) one year of free agency. Then came the big deal. The Twins - under Ryan - signed a lot of guys to these types of deals, buying out 1-2 years of arbitration. They did it with Morneau, Cuddyer, Hunter, Johan and a few others.


Morneau and Cuddyer were signed by Bill Smith, Nathan the same year. (Though in fairness, it was also when Hunter walked and after Target Field was approved).

The first Mauer contract was a big mistake by Ryan, way too short. Set the stage for the albatross to follow. He did well with Johan and Hunter though.
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#49 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:51 PM

 

If it's too late for Buxton then they never really had a chance.

 

Concur. This is the first season he's had sustained production for more than a month. It's possible they don't have a chance and he wants to explore FA as soon as he can like Harper, Machado, Arenado, etc.


#50 gocgo

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:55 PM

Lock them all up at reasonable salaries with bonus $ for # of at bats.That way, they have incentive to stay healthy and the odds are if they are all healthy, the Twins have success.Look, Buxton is great, but Rosario has incredibly quick hands at the plate and a great arm to go with good speed.Rosario was good this year, but he has a chance to be elite.If we can lock up the outfield for many years, the pitching gets easier to come by.No pitcher wants to play with bad defense behind him and every pitcher wants to pitch with good defense behind him.Lock them up and then work on pitching.

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#51 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:59 PM

Did you read the blogs vanimal supplied from Fangraphs, and their analysis of these deals and why they either aren't happening, or need to be MUCH LARGER to happen?

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#52 LaBombo

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 01:03 PM

Of the Big Four, you sign whoever is most likely to flash the cash around their teammates. It totally blows to not have money when your peers do, so the other three fall like dominoes. Boom. Group discount.

 

You're welcome.

Edited by LaBombo, 11 October 2017 - 01:09 PM.

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#53 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 01:23 PM

 

If it's too late for Buxton then they never really had a chance.

True. Given Buxton's struggles, there probably wasn't an extension to be had a year ago.  I'm not really blaming the FO with this line of thought, just saying if there is a chance to get him locked up long-term on a team-friendly deal, it would be now, not later.

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#54 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 01:26 PM

 

The first Mauer contract was a big mistake by Ryan, way too short. Set the stage for the albatross to follow. He did well with Johan and Hunter though.

Yeah, TR waited way too long to lock up Mauer.  He was almost destined to be a Twin for life, we should have been able to get something done.  In 2005 after he returned from the knee injury at the latest.  As it was, we didn't sign him until after he won the 2006 batting title and was eligible for arbitration.


#55 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 01:32 PM

Of the Big Four, you sign whoever is most likely to flash the cash around their teammates. It totally blows to not have money when your peers do, so the other three fall like dominoes. Boom. Group discount.

You're welcome.


That would be fine if they weren’t already making half a million per. They already HAVE money.

As for the extensions themselves, I simply disagree with extending them at this time. If I’m going to potentially commit an 8 figure salary for 2 years at the tail end of the contract, I better be pretty sure these are players that are going to be productive at that point. In the cases of Rosario and Sano, we’re talking about players who have never posted an fWAR over 2.5. IMO, that’s not worth 8 figures, particularly when we are talking about a corner OFer and (by that time most likely) a first baseman. If your farm system can’t crank out 2 corners to produce better than that in the next 4 years, your organization is in pretty bad shape IMO.

Sure, maybe they get better. Maybe they don’t. Cristian Guzman never did. He posted an fWAR of 3.9 as a 23 year old and posted above 1.8 exactly one more time in his career.

#56 drjim

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 01:41 PM

 

True. Given Buxton's struggles, there probably wasn't an extension to be had a year ago.  I'm not really blaming the FO with this line of thought, just saying if there is a chance to get him locked up long-term on a team-friendly deal, it would be now, not later.

 

I agree with this. They have to move on Buxton this offseason or it likely does not happen at all.

 

I don't think Sano is an option this offseason and looking like he won't be during his time here, unless he really wants to be a Twin. Once the free agents sign next offseason it's game over.

 

The others can wait without that much of a difference. Extension is fine, another year probably doesn't matter a whole lot on their ability to keep them.

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#57 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 02:15 PM

Let’s step into the shoes of Derek Falvey for a minute. Are you really prepared to bank the rest of your career on 2 guys that have never posted fWARs above 2.5 and another who posted a 3.5 and never before above 1.7?

It’s real easy to say “extend them all” when it isn’t your job on the line if they don’t pan out.

#58 drjim

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 02:17 PM

 

Let’s step into the shoes of Derek Falvey for a minute. Are you really prepared to bank the rest of your career on 2 guys that have never posted fWARs above 2.5 and another who posted a 3.5 and never before above 1.7?

It’s real easy to say “extend them all” when it isn’t your job on the line if they don’t pan out.

 

I would bank my career on Buxton, and to a lesser extent Berrios. I would be comfortable punting on Rosario/Kepler/Polanco for a season, and I don't think I would go huge on Sano this offseason.

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#59 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 02:21 PM

 

I fear it might already be too late to get a decent discount. The incentives for Buxton to sign such a deal are melting away. His chances of not having an MLB career at this point are down to injury risk.

 

which for Buxton is not a small risk in my opinion.Same with Sano. Both have had their fair share of injuries both in the majors and minors.


#60 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 02:22 PM

 

Let’s step into the shoes of Derek Falvey for a minute. Are you really prepared to bank the rest of your career on 2 guys that have never posted fWARs above 2.5 and another who posted a 3.5 and never before above 1.7?

It’s real easy to say “extend them all” when it isn’t your job on the line if they don’t pan out.

 

On the other side of the coin, are they prepared to lose Buxton after 6 years if he develops into a star? Because if Buxton reaches the potential we think he can be (5-8 WAR player) then he will be out of Minnesota's budget. 

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