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Article: Knock. Knock. Silence.

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#21 SF Twins Fan

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:16 AM

Lock up Berrios and Buxton for as long as they can.  It would really depend on how much Sano is going to be looking for.  If he wants superstar money then I'd pass as he has yet to stay healthy for a full season and his motivation/determination doesn't seem as high as those two.  I don't think it would take too much to lock Rosario up, so I'd be willing to do a medium length contract with him.  Kepler could probably be signed to a medium length contract as well.


#22 PDX Twin

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:23 AM

Kepler seems like he's quite similar to Dozier (at the time they signed him to a medium-term deal) in terms of development and promise. That one worked out quite well, though Dozier was far from an established player at the time he signed.

 

I'd put a reasonable but generous offer on the table for Kepler sometime in the next 18 months and see if they can keep him in Minnesota for another half-decade.

It's great to get out of the cellar ... as long as you bring something with you.


#23 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:37 AM

 

Buxton and Sano both got multi-million dollar signing bonuses. They are in a position to bet on themselves. There's just no way they sign a deal now. 

That's what I am thinking too. Even Rosario, assuming he's not a super-2 this winter, is only a year away from arbitration -- even if they get hurt at this point, they are each probably going to get a couple mil next winter.

 

The time for discount extensions seems to be earlier than that -- Span was 2 years away from arbitration when he signed his, for example.  Dozier was only a year away and didn't give much of a discount (at least he didn't sign away any FA years).


#24 RaymondLuxuryYacht

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:40 AM

I would be uncomfortable signing any long term deal - doesn't mean I wouldn't do it though.

 

If you aren't uncomfortable, you probably haven't thought it through well enough.


#25 Dman

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:41 AM

Buxton is the one I would try and lock up for sure.If he remains solid at the plate other teams will snap him up as soon as they can.If Rosario is reasonable then I would offer him as well.Wouldn't mind doing Kepler but having the whole outfield locked up seems overkill.

 

I know Sano has the potential to be a game changer but his K rate and injury history worry me.I know he will get better and at the beginning of the year when he was healthy and disciplined at the plate he carried this team.I just get the feeling he won't be giving the Twins a deal and I am not sure he is someone who can stay healthy.Tough call on Sano for me.

 

I agree that this is the year to get deals done if the Twins want any discounts.If we wait until these guys "prove" themselves the price is going to be much higher to get those later years.It is a risk but opportunity only knocks once.


#26 dbminn

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:46 AM

My priorities would be Buxton and Rosario. They are my "best bets" for long and successful careers. I love Berrios but the injury risk for SP is pretty high. 

 

I'd give Buxton guaranteed money over a long-term contract. Load it with incentives for MVP, AS, GG, SS. Say, 6 yrs / $62 million, with a $2M buyout before FA (4 yr / $32 mil guaranteed at that point). I'll take the injury risk and put up with the coulda/woulda/shouldas if he misses a year.  

 

I want to see more consistent defense and base running with Rosario but his upside is extremely high. He's shown the desire to work on his game. I'd ask for the same contract structure as Buxton. Spotrac has Rosario as a 4-year Arb guy, so 7 years takes him through two years as FA: 7 yrs / $48M, $1M buyout before FA (5/$21M guaranteed). It's risky but the Twins need to take a few chances to build a long-term winner.

 

Approach Berrios, Sano, Kepler and Polanco after the 2018 season. Health with Sano and injury risk for Berrios are the issues. There are other 2B/SS moving through the system so Polanco isn't a priority right now. Kepler still has to prove he can be an everyday player.

 

These are difficult calls. IMO, sign them all over the next two years. Odds are good that 4 of 6 will be above-average to elite ballplayers. Better to spread the risk than try to pick the optimal signings. No FA years, less money. No team option, a lot less money.


#27 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:49 AM

 

That's what I am thinking too. Even Rosario, assuming he's not a super-2 this winter, is only a year away from arbitration -- even if they get hurt at this point, they are each probably going to get a couple mil next winter.

 

The time for discount extensions seems to be earlier than that -- Span was 2 years away from arbitration when he signed his, for example.  Dozier was only a year away and didn't give much of a discount (at least he didn't sign away any FA years).

 

This fangraphs blog may be of interest for you and others....

 

 

Consider: since 2010, there have been 143 extensions of three or more years given to players who’ve recorded less than six years of service time, per MLB Trade Rumors.

 

30+ of those extensions came when the player was in between 2-3 years service time. So I think this is the right time for the organization to get the best deal for their players. 

Though if you consider Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, or Sano stars, then Dave Cameron wrote about how star players are forgoing pre-arbitration extensions so they can reach FA sooner. 

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#28 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 09:04 AM

 

This fangraphs blog may be of interest for you and others....

 

 

30+ of those extensions came when the player was in between 2-3 years service time. So I think this is the right time for the organization to get the best deal for their players. 

Though if you consider Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, or Sano stars, then Dave Cameron wrote about how star players are forgoing pre-arbitration extensions so they can reach FA sooner. 

 

I didn't say you couldn't or shouldn't do extensions with such players. But you're not necessarily getting a great deal.  A 3 or even 4 year extension for any of these guys right now wouldn't be particularly valuable.  Like Dozier, it would bring some cost certainty, maybe a mild discount, but that's it.  The really valuable part of these deals is getting FA years at a discount (see Sale, Quintana, and Eaton for the White Sox as great examples, or even Denard Span as a mild example for us).

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#29 wsnydes

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 09:20 AM

I think this team is at a point where they should gamble on locking up some of the core players.I'd lock up Buxton and Berrios for sure.I'm a little more hesitant on Sano.I want to see Rosario follow up this season with another strong season before talking deal for him.  

 

Locking up some or all of the core players should help extend the window of opportunity.It very well might backfire in the end, but I think it's worth the risk.

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#30 drjim

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 09:30 AM

 

Kepler seems like he's quite similar to Dozier (at the time they signed him to a medium-term deal) in terms of development and promise. That one worked out quite well, though Dozier was far from an established player at the time he signed.

 

I'd put a reasonable but generous offer on the table for Kepler sometime in the next 18 months and see if they can keep him in Minnesota for another half-decade.

 

I don't know, Dozier had just backed up a 2.5 WAR season with a 4.7 WAR season, so there was some expectation going forward (that he has since lived up to).

 

Kepler is stilla 1 WAR player at a corner OF.

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#31 markos

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 09:38 AM

I think John's $28M estimate is way too low - probably half what would be required. As others have already pointed out, Buxton and Sano both already received multi-million dollar signing bonuses, so their league-minimum salaries understate their financial security. Then if you look at other comparable players who recently signed, several (Andrelton Simmons, Christian Yelich, Rougned Odor, Kevin Kiermaier) have signed for at least $50M guaranteed. Francisco Lindor reportedly turned down a $100M deal. Finally, I think that most players (and agents) are expecting the Machado/Harper/Kershaw free agent class to completely reset the salary scale. So I think some of that expected jump will need to be baked into any long-term offer.

 

If I'm advising Buxton/Sano/Rosario, I'm suggestion two options. Either take a cheap deal without giving up any FA years (think something like a 4yr/$20M deal); or, take a massive deal that covers FA years or has team options (think something like 6yr/$80M with $20M option years). Anything in between is giving up too much earning potential.

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#32 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 09:55 AM

 

I think John's $28M estimate is way too low - probably half what would be required. As others have already pointed out, Buxton and Sano both already received multi-million dollar signing bonuses, so their league-minimum salaries understate their financial security. Then if you look at other comparable players who recently signed, several (Andrelton Simmons, Christian Yelich, Rougned Odor, Kevin Kiermaier) have signed for at least $50M guaranteed. Francisco Lindor reportedly turned down a $100M deal. Finally, I think that most players (and agents) are expecting the Machado/Harper/Kershaw free agent class to completely reset the salary scale. So I think some of that expected jump will need to be baked into any long-term offer.

 

If I'm advising Buxton/Sano/Rosario, I'm suggestion two options. Either take a cheap deal without giving up any FA years (think something like a 4yr/$20M deal); or, take a massive deal that covers FA years or has team options (think something like 6yr/$80M with $20M option years). Anything in between is giving up too much earning potential.

 

Agreed. The average guaranteed dollars from that Fangraphs blog I posted before said $40 million for players in the 2-3 year service time window. If the Twins are buying out FA years, they'll have to step up and pay them $20-25 million each year. 

 

EDIT: Yes, the Machado/Harper/Kershaw FA class next season is going to break everything we know about the salary scale. I can't wait to see the enormous contracts they sign. 

Edited by Vanimal46, 11 October 2017 - 09:57 AM.

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#33 drjim

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 10:20 AM

Buxton would have to be something like 1-5-9-12-22-22-etc at a minimum, and that is probably underselling it by a decent margin.

 

These extensions are much more desirable when the money is comically understated. None of these hitters, not even Rosario, is giving up the first year of free agency for 10.5mil. Berrios might be a slightly different story, being a pitcher and locking him up two years before arb.

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#34 howieramone2

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 10:23 AM

I would lock up Sano and Buxton, as long as possible, hopefully this off season, but no later than next. Berrios I would wait on because all pitchers have injury concerns. It doesn't have to be done anytime soon, but feel you will need to choose between Rosario and Kepler at some point in time. I look at Polanco as the odd man out, because it certainly appears we have an abundance of middle infielders in the pipeline. 

 

If we keep the right 4, we should be able to extend the window. Masterful job of accumulating talent by Terry Ryan.

Edited by howieramone2, 11 October 2017 - 10:27 AM.

Read my lips. Santana has shown absolutely no signs of decline.


#35 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 10:26 AM

In regards to my posts upthread (about Sano, Buxton, and Rosario being just 1 year away from arbitration), it should be noted that Berrios is still 2 years away.  Coupled with pitcher injury volatility, there would be seem to be the best potential to work out a team-friendly extension for him right now.

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#36 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 10:52 AM

Re: Andrelton Simmons, Christian Yelich, Rougned Odor, Kevin Kiermaier.

Simmons, Yellich and Kiermaier all posted seasons with at least an fWAR OF 4.5 before cashing in. Buxton’s best is 3.5. Rosario’s best is 2.2. Sano’s best is 2.3. That’s a rather substantial gap IMO especially since much of Buxton’s WAR value is still tied to his defense. Odor’s struggles since cashing in would seem to be exactly the reason why you DON’T give the money to a young guy that hasn’t posted a 4.5 fWAR.

Point being if those are the names people are using to say the Twins should lock Buxton, Rosario and Sano up NOW, I am even more confident in my position in waiting until next year.

#37 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 10:58 AM

 

Re: Andrelton Simmons, Christian Yelich, Rougned Odor, Kevin Kiermaier.

Simmons, Yellich and Kiermaier all posted seasons with at least an fWAR OF 4.5 before cashing in. Buxton’s best is 3.5. Rosario’s best is 2.2. Sano’s best is 2.3. That’s a rather substantial gap IMO especially since much of Buxton’s WAR value is still tied to his defense. Odor’s struggles since cashing in would seem to be exactly the reason why you DON’T give the money to a young guy that hasn’t posted a 4.5 fWAR.

Point being if those are the names people are using to say the Twins should lock Buxton, Rosario and Sano up NOW, I am even more confident in my position in waiting until next year.

 

Would it make you feel better that Buxton has 5.1 bWAR? 


#38 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 11:17 AM

It's not like this is an urgent matter to sign any of these guys before they leave. Just know that the dollar signs are going to rise dramatically each year that passes.

Frankly, it's probably not smart for the Twins in their situation to wait when salary ranges break because of the mega 2018 FA class.
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#39 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 11:22 AM

Would it make you feel better that Buxton has 5.1 bWAR?



Kiermaier posted a 7.3, and Simmons a 7.0 bWAR before cashing in. So, no. The numbers say “not yet” IMO. Odor and Yelich’s pre-contract bWARs weren’t as good as Buxton’s this year. But given their inconsistency since, it seems to reinforce the strategy of waiting. The Twins might be able to afford being wrong about one of them. They certainly can’t afford to be wrong about all 3. By that I mean if the Twins extend all 3 for the next 5 years and none of them live up to it, the franchise is destroyed for the next ten years.

As I said, those 3 simply haven’t been good enough to earn a long term commitment yet IMO.

#40 drjim

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 11:31 AM

 

In regards to my posts upthread (about Sano, Buxton, and Rosario being just 1 year away from arbitration), it should be noted that Berrios is still 2 years away.  Coupled with pitcher injury volatility, there would be seem to be the best potential to work out a team-friendly extension for him right now.

 

I would endorse an extension for Berrios, but wouldn't be especially offended if they decided to wait 2-3 years. Good (enough) extensions for non elite pitchers can be had throughout the pre-arb and arb years.

 

That said, he seems like a decent guy to invest in, unless you are nervous about his height and if that leads to more injury concerns.

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