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An early look at the 2018 payroll

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#21 Sconnie

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Posted 07 October 2017 - 08:26 PM

This link is their estimated 40-man payroll by Baseball Reference. According to them they are already at $114M w/o options and $120M w/options.
https://baseball-ref...contracts.shtml

36 mil for arbitration salaries? That's 4x what those players made in 17. Seems steep

#22 Rosterman

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Posted 07 October 2017 - 09:57 PM

The Twins saw a nice bump in attendance this season...and remember, most of those were team controlled day-of-the-game priced tickets. They might sell more season tickets because of the Wild Card spot. But let's see how many more games they can raise the price by a buck or so.

 

We have a new administration. One year in. Time to clean house and eat losses tied into monies that should be off the books by releasing guys outright and such. Make the hard decision on Phil Hughes now. Don't nickel and dime the career AAAA guys or fringe people on the roster. Either replace them with lowcost rookies, or sign that big right-handed bat that can play a position and also DH.

 

You need to spend the money on a top-flight starter and a couple of bullpen arms.

 

Ticket revenue held for 2016. It was better than expected in 2017 (although I still complain that I can't get the radio in ALL parts of the greater metro area). 

 

The Twins need to develop a marketing plan that can play well during super bowl craziness.

 

What IS the future of Joe Mauer?

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#23 Linus

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 05:20 AM

I don't care about the exact number. I want them to seize opportunities to improve their pitching. If those opportunities don't materialize fine. Don't lock up long term dollars for mediocre talent.
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#24 howieramone2

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 09:45 AM

 

One thing not mentioned so far is whether and when to extend our emerging young players. I think most will agree that right now is too early for this but if any of them perform very well next year it's something that Falvine and Pohlad must consider. The impact on 2018 would be zero unless it occurred during the season and even then it would probably be minimal, but control of the 2018 payroll would free up more money for this. Consider, in no particular order, Berrios, Sano, Polanco, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler. Rosario is the oldest at 26. If we do it too soon we could wind up with an untradeable underperforming player. If we wait too long we could wind up like the Royals and lose a valuable core. I think we all envision the powerhouse team we would have if all these players continue to improve, and I hope a way can be found to retain all of them, or at least come out ahead on any trades involving any of them.

Completely agree. The elephant in the room is Longoria contracts. 

Read my lips. Santana has shown absolutely no signs of decline.


#25 yarnivek1972

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 10:30 AM

TBH, there is really no one I am prepared to make a long term commitment to at this time. No one has really done it over the course of even a 162 game season yet.

Sure, Longoria signed a long term deal like two weeks knto his career. That’s Tampa’s call. There is no reason to do that. There is a reason why the MLBPA really doesn’t fight harder for bigger compensation to inexperienced players. It takes that long to get any kind of read on expected performance.

#26 old nurse

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 11:13 AM

Gregory Polonco's contract is a reason not to sign someone long term. Longoria's contract was signed after the 2012 season when he became arbitration eligible.Sano Rosario and Buxtonwill not hit that until next year.If you believe that Sano will be Edwin Encarnation you should get him locked up now before he proves it. If you are afraid he is going to turn into Adam Lind, then you avoid making the decision.Buxton would be the same ceiling issue.


#27 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 11:43 AM

Gregory Polonco's contract is a reason not to sign someone long term. Longoria's contract was signed after the 2012 season when he became arbitration eligible. Sano Rosario and Buxton will not hit that until next year. If you believe that Sano will be Edwin Encarnation you should get him locked up now before he proves it. If you are afraid he is going to turn into Adam Lind, then you avoid making the decision. Buxton would be the same ceiling issue.


Longoria signed a 6 year, 17.5 million (plus 3 team options) contract in April 2008, 6 days after making his mlb debut.
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#28 puckstopper1

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 11:50 AM

Any way the Twins could get out of Hughes and Park's contracts?That would certainly help.

Edited by puckstopper1, 09 October 2017 - 11:50 AM.

That Twins 2nd baseman - #29 - he doesn't run, he "ca-rew-zes" - Earl Weaver


#29 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 11:51 AM

Any way the Twins could get out of Hughes and Park's contracts? That would certainly help.


Park's contract is chump change.

#30 yarnivek1972

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 11:54 AM

Any way the Twins could get out of Hughes and Park's contracts? That would certainly help.


Only if they voluntarily retire. If Hughes retires due to medical reasons, he still gets the money. Then insurance covers most of it.

#31 USAFChief

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 12:58 PM

Gregory Polonco's contract is a reason not to sign someone long term. Longoria's contract was signed after the 2012 season when he became arbitration eligible.Sano Rosario and Buxtonwill not hit that until next year.If you believe that Sano will be Edwin Encarnation you should get him locked up now before he proves it. If you are afraid he is going to turn into Adam Lind, then you avoid making the decision.Buxton would be the same ceiling issue.


Polanco' contract is an example of why you DO sign early long term contracts. Even if he completely tanks--which hasn't happened yet--the dollar figures don't hamstring a team. And if he blows up, he's dirt cheap...like Longoria (who as noted above was signed right after his MLB debut).

It might be too late for Buxton and Sano, but they probably should already be under long term contract. The only thing that might change that opinion is if Twins management believes financial security would remove Sano's incentive to control his weight.

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#32 gunnarthor

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 01:13 PM

I think payroll will end around 110mish and that gives us roughly 20m to add in FA but I don't think we'll do all of that. I think they'll make some trades to take on some slightly higher salaries (arbitration years) or such. But the Pohlads didn't hire Falvey do go big in payroll. They hired him because they think he can operate in a low payroll environment. Levine's somments in that BP piece were also pretty damning for anyone hoping for ownership to step up.

 

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#33 old nurse

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 01:41 PM

 

Longoria signed a 6 year, 17.5 million (plus 3 team options) contract in April 2008, 6 days after making his mlb debut.

Spare change sort of contract when he signs a 100 million plus contract in 2012, which is a far riskier contract than the first one.


#34 old nurse

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 01:53 PM

 

 

Polanco' contract is an example of why you DO sign early long term contracts. Even if he completely tanks--which hasn't happened yet--the dollar figures don't hamstring a team. And if he blows up, he's dirt cheap...like Longoria (who as noted above was signed right after his MLB debut).

It might be too late for Buxton and Sano, but they probably should already be under long term contract. The only thing that might change that opinion is if Twins management believes financial security would remove Sano's incentive to control his weight.

If he blows up is a might big if given that he has had over 3 seasons of play. Not really the power for RF, not the defense for CF. A 2-3 WAR player you are stuck with.

 


#35 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 05:52 PM

Spare change sort of contract when he signs a 100 million plus contract in 2012, which is a far riskier contract than the first one.


And that extension didn't even start until 2017.
So they got Longoria's first 9 years for 47.5 million.
That first contract, which was a bargain for TB, has nothing to do with the extension, so I'm not sure why you are bringing it up.

#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 09:12 PM

You stole my response to the OP... I think 120 million is a number the pohlads are comfortable with so the big question is "is there anyone worth acquiring to spend that 20+ million on?" Year after year I see the lists of free agent starting pitchers and say to myself, they are not worth it. Ditto with this years list. I hope there is some type of big trade to bring in a front line starter and then spend up to that 120 mark on relievers and filling any potential holes created by said trade.


So it's better to start the pitchers they have, are those players"worth it"?

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#37 goulik

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 09:46 PM

So it's better to start the pitchers they have, are those players"worth it"?


Vs overpaying more #3 type pitchers that will prevent us from keeping all our young Good players down the road as the FA pitchers decline into Ricky Nolascos and Phil Hughes types? Yeah, I prefer what we got over paying for those free agents. Trade or stand pat... Preferably trade

#38 Kwak

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Posted 10 October 2017 - 10:30 AM

Payroll...

 

I remember a discussion last year concerning relief pitchers. Something this guy and another guy(one name might have been Bastardo) available for 2 years at $5-6 MM per year.The follow-up was a month or two later when it was posted that most FA RP's were having "bust seasons". This happens of course and the risk of failure of FA signings (happened to the Twins for SPs!) is very real. The solution is the ability "to grow your own...". Ryan tried to short-cut the process--and failed miserably and now he's gone. I am sceptical that the new leadership will try that tactic unless requested to do so.