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Regression and Progression in 2018

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#41 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 12:50 PM

 

Sure, but ask yourself this. Is this really the best offense in baseball? Sure, it might be, but most likely it isn't. And in any case, usually being #1 is fleeting at best.

 

well, you're cherry picking the second half offensive stats to justify regression for their season stats (7th overall)... It's an odd argument, to say the least. Any offense can get hot for a month, but I do think there's something to be said for the fact that they were the best offense in baseball for half the season, and given their age, I think it's very reasonable for the offense to take a step forward in 2018. Can they finish with the number 1 offense in baseball next year? Probably not, but there is enough youth/ceiling there where it's possible, and even if they aren't 1, they could still finish well above their 2017 line of 7 overall.

 

There were no 2009 Joe Mauers putting up gaudy stats. The young kids all took big steps forward. Mauer was the only real surprise in the offense, and he didn't put up numbers outside his career norms. He simply did better than he's done the last few years. So yeah, I think improvement from 7 overall is pretty reasonable. The problem, as we all know, is pitching.


#42 spinowner

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Posted 10 October 2017 - 01:39 PM

 

Sure, but ask yourself this. Is this really the best offense in baseball? Sure, it might be, but most likely it isn't. And in any case, usually being #1 is fleeting at best.

I would not be surprised if this offense is the best offense in baseball in 2018. Excepting Mauer and Dozier the players are young enough that they reasonably can be expected to improve, in some cases significantly. Mauer and Dozier reasonably can be expected to regress slightly. I'm guessing that there will be a net improvement next year.

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eiπ + 1 = 0


#43 Loosey

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Posted 10 October 2017 - 02:07 PM

Regarding Santana; I think we already have seen the regression.He was almost unhittable in April and parts of May.After that he was OK.He may regress more, but his end of the season line, was not equivalent to the pitcher pitching at the end of the season.  


#44 howieramone2

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 11:15 AM

 

Regarding Santana; I think we already have seen the regression.He was almost unhittable in April and parts of May.After that he was OK.He may regress more, but his end of the season line, was not equivalent to the pitcher pitching at the end of the season.  

That's called the ebb and flow of the season. He has shown absolutely no signs of decline. I do understand this is disappointing to some members of the board, but I heard the same nonsense after last season.

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Read my lips. Santana has shown absolutely no signs of decline.


#45 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:35 PM

 

That's called the ebb and flow of the season. He has shown absolutely no signs of decline. I do understand this is disappointing to some members of the board, but I heard the same nonsense after last season.

1. Santana was worse in some of the things he could control this season (K rate, for example) and much better in the things he doesn't have much control over (BABIP, for example).

 

2. Being worried about a player's impending decline and not seeing it happen in a specific season does not invalidate the concern. All players age, though not at the same rate. Maybe Santana is one of those guys who is effective until he's 36 years old. Maybe his arm falls off this season. It's something to consider at the very least, especially on a team with little pitching that expects to contend again.

 

If you find enough pitchers where Santana works out be be #3 (or hopefully, #4) on this team in 2018, it's less of a concern.


#46 jimmer

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 05:35 PM

2016 Santana: FIP 3.81, xFIP 4.21 BABIP .285.74.1% LOB%.

2017 Santana: FIP 4.46, xFIP 4.77 BABIP .245 (Thank you, Buxton). 79.5% LOB.

 

1. Santana was worse in some of the things he could control this season (K rate, for example) and much better in the things he doesn't have much control over (BABIP, for example).