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Regression and Progression in 2018

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#21 jimmer

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 01:11 PM

Ervin Santana was better last year than this year. His defense was better this year making him look better.
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#22 spinowner

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Posted 07 October 2017 - 06:15 PM

I'm a Rosario fan. I've mentioned before that his inducement of a balk against the Brewers in July was my favorite play of the year and reveals an instinct for baseball that can't be taught. Other unteachable skills are the wrists and bat speed that Brock mentioned. I think that with maturity and experience his occasional confounding defensive plays and swings at unhittable pitches will decrease and he will be an improved player offensively and defensively. I will predict he'll be the first of our emerging young players to receive a long term contract extension.

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eiπ + 1 = 0


#23 snepp

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Posted 07 October 2017 - 07:20 PM

I'm a Rosario fan. I've mentioned before that his inducement of a balk against the Brewers in July was my favorite play of the year and reveals an instinct for baseball that can't be taught. Other unteachable skills are the wrists and bat speed that Brock mentioned. I think that with maturity and experience his occasional confounding defensive plays and swings at unhittable pitches will decrease and he will be an improved player offensively and defensively. I will predict he'll be the first of our emerging young players to receive a long term contract extension.



I so hope you're right. I wasn't exactly huge on Rosario's offensive profile coming into the season, but he made huge strides. As Brock alluded to, he doesn't have to be super-disciplined at the plate to be a really good offensive player, he just has to minimize those extreme problems, his talent can take care of the rest.


#24 USAFChief

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Posted 07 October 2017 - 07:30 PM

I'm a Rosario fan. I've mentioned before that his inducement of a balk against the Brewers in July was my favorite play of the year and reveals an instinct for baseball that can't be taught. Other unteachable skills are the wrists and bat speed that Brock mentioned. I think that with maturity and experience his occasional confounding defensive plays and swings at unhittable pitches will decrease and he will be an improved player offensively and defensively. I will predict he'll be the first of our emerging young players to receive a long term contract extension.


Rosario gets a contract before Buxton?

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#25 spinowner

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Posted 07 October 2017 - 09:21 PM

 

Rosario gets a contract before Buxton?

Fire Falvine!!1!

Rosario is older, I think he has more service time, and I think he'll be arb-eligible sooner. Not sure about the last two but I think that will factor in. I hope that he, Buxton, Sano and Berrios all get locked up long term during the next 2-3 years.

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#26 Doomtints

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 08:17 AM

 

Ervin Santana was better last year than this year. His defense was better this year making him look better.

 

Good point. Buxton had some of his craziest catches with Santana on the mound.

 

I don't know if Santana was better or not back then, but he certainly benefited from better defense in 2017.

Edited by Doomtints, 08 October 2017 - 08:19 AM.


#27 ashburyjohn

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 09:00 AM

Good point. Buxton had some of his craziest catches with Santana on the mound.

Track is kept of 1-star, 2-star, etc catches by fielders. Is this ever sorted by which pitcher is on the mound? What pitcher has had the most 5-star catches made on his behalf?

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#28 twinssporto

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 11:01 AM

7595b906a311af46e97096438d2f3604.jpg

 

What's with all the negative talk?  We've waited a long time to field a competitive team and now its finally arrived.  If this team had an average age of 28,29 or 30 I would say lets talk regression.  However, I really don't see regression coming from Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Buxton or Polanco.  These guys are so young now and only getting better.  We were the best hitting team the second half of the year and I would think we can carry that over to next year too.  Mauer may even improve as well.  Most players do the last year of their contracts.

 

You might see some regression from Santana and Belisle but I think it would be minor.  Santana has kept the consistency for two years now.  Let's get some new arms going for the bullpen and starters.

 

It's gonna be a fun team to watch!

Edited by twinssporto, 08 October 2017 - 11:02 AM.

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On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.


#29 jimmer

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 11:37 AM

So I was looking at the defensive numbers for 3Bs who had 650 or more innings played.I used that amount of innings played cause it gave me 26 3Bs to look at.

 

What I found interesting was the comparison of Sano and Escobar.

 

-They played pretty much the same amount of innings at 3B (high 600 innings). 

-They made exactly the same amount of plays.

-They each had -5 DRS (which ranked them tied for 19th, both likely would have been worse lower if either had played a normal amount of innings for a starting 3B)

-They had almost exactly the same UZR (-1.0 for Sano, -1.2 for Escobar).  

-Escobar had more range, but still very poor range (20th ranked RZR for Escobar, 25th for Sano).

 

As a team we ranked 18th in UZR at 3B,tied for 24th in DRS, and 29th in RZR (range).

 

Edited by jimmer, 08 October 2017 - 11:37 AM.

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#30 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 05:39 PM

 

People keep predicting regression for Rosario and while I think he'll slide a bit, he could also progress. Remember that he had a terrible month to start 2017 (.660 OPS).

 

All of Rosario's metrics trended in the right direction and he's only entering his age 26 season. The power could be legit (and almost surely is to some extent).

 

When the season began, I suggested that all Rosario needed to do was stop swinging at the worst 3-4% of pitches thrown to him (and drew a few laughs that such a minor change would reap dividends). His wrists and contact ability could turn that small adjustment into him being a decent player (though I didn't expect the outbreak of power to the extent we saw this season).

 

As it turns out, that's exactly what Eddie did this season. His O-Zone Swing % dropped 4.1% (overall swing rate dropped 2.0%). As a result, his O-Zone Contact % jumped 6.5%, likely due to the fact he was laying off the pitches he couldn't hit and still swinging at the pitches he could. His overall contact rate jumped a whopping 5.3%. As I thought might be the case, that small change caused a domino effect.

 

Rosario's hitting profile used to be untenable. Now, given his wrists and bat speed, it might be sustainable.

 

Rosario didn't need to change his approach drastically to have success in MLB, he simply needed to lay off the junk pitches because they killed so many of his plate appearances. If you throw something close to the zone, Eddie can probably lay wood on it. In the past, that meant pitchers threw him absolute trash to get a swinging strike. Again, the domino effect. Eddie's K rate dropped a massive 7.7%.

 

It appears Eddie stopped swinging at the worst pitches. As a result, his contact rate shot up, his K rate dropped, he drew a few more walks, and he started forcing pitchers to give him something to hit instead of getting himself out. And that resulted in not only more contact but also better contact (hard hit up 1.6%, soft hit down 1.8%, line drive % up 0.9%, ground ball % down 3.9%).

Outstanding analysis. Thanks.


#31 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 05:42 PM

 

So I was looking at the defensive numbers for 3Bs who had 650 or more innings played.I used that amount of innings played cause it gave me 26 3Bs to look at.

 

What I found interesting was the comparison of Sano and Escobar.

 

-They played pretty much the same amount of innings at 3B (high 600 innings). 

-They made exactly the same amount of plays.

-They each had -5 DRS (which ranked them tied for 19th, both likely would have been worse lower if either had played a normal amount of innings for a starting 3B)

-They had almost exactly the same UZR (-1.0 for Sano, -1.2 for Escobar).  

-Escobar had more range, but still very poor range (20th ranked RZR for Escobar, 25th for Sano).

 

As a team we ranked 18th in UZR at 3B,tied for 24th in DRS, and 29th in RZR (range).

Good analysis. Thank you. I had thought that Escobar would be far superior to Sano in these areas. Boy was I wrong.

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#32 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 08 October 2017 - 05:45 PM

 

7595b906a311af46e97096438d2f3604.jpg

 

What's with all the negative talk?  We've waited a long time to field a competitive team and now its finally arrived.  If this team had an average age of 28,29 or 30 I would say lets talk regression.  However, I really don't see regression coming from Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Buxton or Polanco.  These guys are so young now and only getting better.  We were the best hitting team the second half of the year and I would think we can carry that over to next year too.  Mauer may even improve as well.  Most players do the last year of their contracts.

 

You might see some regression from Santana and Belisle but I think it would be minor.  Santana has kept the consistency for two years now.  Let's get some new arms going for the bullpen and starters.

 

It's gonna be a fun team to watch!

I agree. Twins Territory no longer includes Lake Wobegone, where the men are good looking, the women are strong and the baseball players are slightly above average.

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#33 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 06:44 AM

 

The Twins were the best hitting team in baseball in the second half. There is only one direction to go when you are #1. There will be regression from most of the position players, how much is the question.

 

The logic in this statement doesn't work well. The Twins were also a very young offense with many of their key players really getting their first full seasons under their belts. That's not primed for regression. If anything, it's primed for improvement. The question is whether the regression in guys like Mauer and Dozier (if it happens) would be offset by gains in guys like Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, and Polanco.... and all of those guys should be able to take steps forward offensively next season...

 

As for mine:

 

Regression: Santana, Belisle (if he stays).

 

Progression: well, just about everyone under 27.

 

Guys I want to believe in but cannot: Gibson.

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#34 Doomtints

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 07:43 AM

 

The logic in this statement doesn't work well. 

 

Sure, but ask yourself this. Is this really the best offense in baseball? Sure, it might be, but most likely it isn't. And in any case, usually being #1 is fleeting at best.


#35 drjim

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 07:48 AM

 

Sure, but ask yourself this. Is this really the best offense in baseball? Sure, it might be, but most likely it isn't. And in any case, usually being #1 is fleeting at best.

 

I think it is likely that some hitters progress and some regress and they stay at a relatively similar level. So on the aggregate there shouldn't be much regression. Twins also have the ability to upgrade the DH/backup 1B spot a little, which would trickle down to Grossman getting some of the OF starts that went to Adrianza.

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#36 gunnarthor

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 09:16 AM

 

Sure, but ask yourself this. Is this really the best offense in baseball? Sure, it might be, but most likely it isn't. And in any case, usually being #1 is fleeting at best.

But your logic is that the Twins were best offense in baseball's second half so they won't be #1 next year and that's regression?Wouldn't regression mean they had to be worse than #7 (if runs is what you're going by) since that's where they placed during the season?I think most of us considering regression/progression are thinking about how players/teams will perform over the full season and not just the last couple months.


#37 Thrylos

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 09:57 AM

For the pitchers, If you take the ERA-FIP, which is basic regression measument, you got
Busenitz (-1.30), Santana (-1.18), Rogers (-1.02) on one side (Regression) and Duffey (1.22), and Curtiss (3.42/SSS) on the other (Improvement). The rest are within -/+ 0.50.I am ignoring FAs and people who will be DFA'd (Tonkin, Turley, Boshers etc.)

This is pretty scary, because arguably their best 2 relievers and the starter that the DickNBerts of the world call the Twins' "Ace", are about to regress in 2018, which makes rebuilding the pen and the rotation a huge necessity, if they are to compete in the post-season.

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#38 howieramone2

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 10:00 AM

 

For the pitchers, If you take the ERA-FIP, which is basic regression measument, you got
Busenitz (-1.30), Santana (-1.18), Rogers (-1.02) on one side (Regression) and Duffey (1.22), and Curtiss (3.42/SSS) on the other (Improvement). The rest are within -/+ 0.50.I am ignoring FAs and people who will be DFA'd (Tonkin, Turley, Boshers etc.)

This is pretty scary, because arguably their best 2 relievers and the starter that the DickNBerts of the world call the Twins' "Ace", are about to regress in 2018, which makes rebuilding the pen and the rotation a huge necessity, if they are to compete in the post-season.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Read my lips. Santana has shown absolutely no signs of decline.


#39 drjim

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 10:20 AM

 

For the pitchers, If you take the ERA-FIP, which is basic regression measument, you got
Busenitz (-1.30), Santana (-1.18), Rogers (-1.02) on one side (Regression) and Duffey (1.22), and Curtiss (3.42/SSS) on the other (Improvement). The rest are within -/+ 0.50.I am ignoring FAs and people who will be DFA'd (Tonkin, Turley, Boshers etc.)

This is pretty scary, because arguably their best 2 relievers and the starter that the DickNBerts of the world call the Twins' "Ace", are about to regress in 2018, which makes rebuilding the pen and the rotation a huge necessity, if they are to compete in the post-season.

 

Santana has enough of a track record of overperforming his fip that it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion it will be that big. He will probably regress a little though, and really should be considered the #3 going into next season.

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#40 yarnivek1972

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 12:01 PM

I wouldn’t bet on Boshers being DFA (actually, non-tendered). Unless the Twins think they will need the roster spot. There’s really no downside to tendering him (he’s still pre-arb). If you don’t like what you see in ST (or perhaps like what you see from others), release him then.