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Regression and Progression in 2018

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#1 strumdatjaguar

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 10:05 AM

So, here are my picks for Regression:

Starters:

Ervin Santana - He's the most obvious.Getting older and coming off of a career year.(I believe Big Sexy will retire, so I didn't consider him)

Relief:

Matt Belisle - Another aging player who showed he was capable of poor performance during the early part of 2017.Might have one good season left in him, but the most obvious nominee for regression on the staff.

Starting Nine:

Tougher Choice here.Looks like Joe Mauer has regained his stroke, along with excellent fielding - so Joe is not my nominee.Hard to bet against Dozier, too. So, I'll pick Eddie Rosario - just because there will be some regression somewhere in the line-up and I still don't trust his approach at the plate.

Bench:

Ehire Adrianza was never expected to hit as well as he did this year.So, it's not a stretch to expect some regression.

 

Nominees for Progression:

Starters:

I expect that the popular choice would be Berrios. However, I'm picking Kyle Gibson.In the last half of this season, it looked like he turned the corner.I'm hoping and thinking he can carry that into next season and show what we expected earlier from this former No.1 Draft Pick..

Relief:

Ryan Pressly -I'm hoping!!!!I'm hoping!!! He's got the stuff, but can it translate into actual effectiveness (or is he just another Michael Tonkin tempting us on the radar gun?)

Starting Nine:

Byron Buxton:Heturned the corner. If he can stay healthy, he becomes an MLB superstar in 2018.

Bench:

Mitch Garver. Should improve at the big league level, and hopefully becoming the starting catcher by mid-2018.

 

 

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#2 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 10:47 AM

I'm generally optimistic. I think we should expect better offensive seasons from Buxton, Polanco and Kepler. Just going by OPS+, all three were below 100. I think Polanco can get close to 100 and the other two should get far above it. Sano should be a bit better as well. I think his bat can improve (127 OPS+ isn't his ceiling) and he should play in more games.

 

Mauer, Dozier and Castro can all be around what they were this year.Not sure about Rosario. Could see him staying around a .290/.330/.500 slash line but maybe he regresses. That's probably close to his ceiling though.

 

I think Berrios should be better, Santana worse. Gibson might be similar to this season. Pressly and Duffey should be better based on stuff. Neither should have ERA+ below 100, for instance. Rogers, Hildy and Belisle won't put up the same numbers. 

 

And as a major progression guy, I'll go with Curtiss. He'll have a full season in the majors and emerge as a huge weapon.

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#3 Doomtints

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 11:09 AM

The Twins were the best hitting team in baseball in the second half. There is only one direction to go when you are #1. There will be regression from most of the position players, how much is the question.

 

As far as specific players are concerned, the same people who said Rosario would regress in 2017 will say it for 2018. I can skip all threads on Rosario topic as they will be strictly reruns.

 

Santana is due to continue the decline that started near the end of the season. Duffey and May are not likely to be good players again, not that either were good for very long.

 

Adrianza, Escobar, and Grossman are due to go back to their career norms. Grossman is overdue, if he continues to perform we have to admit he's a key asset.

Of the young guys, the juries are still out on Kepler and Polanco. Both will probably have cold bats for long stretches. It's not fair to call either case "regression" as they are still learning.

Edited by Doomtints, 05 October 2017 - 11:11 AM.


#4 laloesch

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 11:49 AM

 

The Twins were the best hitting team in baseball in the second half. There is only one direction to go when you are #1. There will be regression from most of the position players, how much is the question.

 

As far as specific players are concerned, the same people who said Rosario would regress in 2017 will say it for 2018. I can skip all threads on Rosario topic as they will be strictly reruns.

 

Santana is due to continue the decline that started near the end of the season. Duffey and May are not likely to be good players again, not that either were good for very long.

 

Adrianza, Escobar, and Grossman are due to go back to their career norms. Grossman is overdue, if he continues to perform we have to admit he's a key asset.

Of the young guys, the juries are still out on Kepler and Polanco. Both will probably have cold bats for long stretches. It's not fair to call either case "regression" as they are still learning.

 

I agree on Santana. I think he's declining and what we will see next season will likely make this new FO wish they had traded him when he was peaking late last season going into the first half of this year. I'm not going to get into the merits of that here.  I don't understand the remark about May.Guy was doing fine until he had TJ after a rocky start.  Duffey on the other hand is probably due for a rebound not further regression.He is clearly better than what he displayed this season if the team uses him properly as a RP.  

 

I think Buxton and Rosario are due for further progression, but are not so sure about Sano depending on his health and conditioning.Mauer will probably not get much better than this at his age.

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#5 howieramone2

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 12:09 PM

Santana has shown absolutely no signs of decline. I look for him to be with us 2 more seasons.

Hard to forget we had members wanting to trade Dozier and Santana so we could continue the rebuild until the 2020's.
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Read my lips. Santana has shown absolutely no signs of decline.


#6 Blackjack

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 12:28 PM

Progression, Kepler and Rosario. Kepler still has a lot to learn and I think he will. Rosario seems to have figured it out and will keep getting better. Same with Berrios.

 

Regression, Buxton. The way he bounces off of walls, other players, and dives, he won't play 100 games next year.


#7 prouster

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 12:31 PM

 

The Twins were the best hitting team in baseball in the second half. There is only one direction to go when you are #1.

 

Forward, right?

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#8 Platoon

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 01:43 PM

Someone needs to teach Buxton to go back to the wall whenever possible, and then jump. I know that is not always doable, but he runs into way too many walls. He stays healthy it's all progression. Sano? It's really all up to him. Few players have his ability. But he has to take care of his body. That's anyone's guess. If he does, he will be amongst the elite hitters in baseball. Rosario? Neither Tony Oliva or Kirby Puckett would have fit well into today's metric analysis of hitters. There is such a thing as a "bad ball hitter", and Rosario just might be one.
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#9 Vanimal46

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 01:58 PM

Progression: 

- Mejia for rotation. He showed flashes of potential, but too many times he couldn't make it to the 6th inning and beyond. Next year he puts it together and be a solid #4 pitcher.

- John Curtiss for the bullpen. Really like his stuff from the very limited opportunities I saw him pitch. I could see him building into a high leverage role next year. 

- Jorge Polanco for the lineup. He gets his bat on the ball too often to not do better, and hopefully he doesn't have an extended slump. 

 

Regression: 

- Erv for the rotation. Obvious choice. 

- Pressly for the bullpen. I don't think Belisle comes back, and Pressly showed a lot of HR tendencies this year. 

- Escobar for the lineup. There's no way he comes close to hitting 20 HRs again. 


#10 drjim

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 02:46 PM

Progression:

- Mejia for rotation. He showed flashes of potential, but too many times he couldn't make it to the 6th inning and beyond. Next year he puts it together and be a solid #4 pitcher.
- John Curtiss for the bullpen. Really like his stuff from the very limited opportunities I saw him pitch. I could see him building into a high leverage role next year.
- Jorge Polanco for the lineup. He gets his bat on the ball too often to not do better, and hopefully he doesn't have an extended slump.

Regression:

- Erv for the rotation. Obvious choice.
- Pressly for the bullpen. I don't think Belisle comes back, and Pressly showed a lot of HR tendencies this year.
- Escobar for the lineup. There's no way he comes close to hitting 20 HRs again.


Pressly doesn't have much further to regress.
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#11 Vanimal46

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 02:52 PM

 

Pressly doesn't have much further to regress.

 

He could always regress his way to a mid-season DFA.... 


#12 yarnivek1972

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 03:25 PM

I think Pressly is a good candidate for progression, especially if the Twins replace the pitching coach, which is extremely likely IMO. He had a very good second half. Hildenberger is a candidate to regress. The league has seen him and will adjust. It’s be well documented that most of his success is due to an unusual delivery rather than stuff. Doesn’t mean he can’t still carve out a career. Pat Neshek is still pitching. But Hildenberger will need to continue to make adjustments.
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#13 Dantes929

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 04:02 PM

Progression,Rosario, Buxton, Polanco, Sano, Berrios, Garver, Kepler, Pressley, Meijas. RegressionEscobar, Belisle.Why go into a season expecting anything but good.? I know.Doesn't explain Escobar regression..Just a feeling we won't see him playing as much anyway.

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#14 yarnivek1972

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 04:05 PM

I don’t know why people are listing Belisle. Do people think he’ll be back? He’s UFA.
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#15 drjim

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 04:26 PM

I don’t know why people are listing Belisle. Do people think he’ll be back? He’s UFA.


I hope they aim a little higher. That would be a Ryan move.
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#16 Bill Brown69

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 08:08 PM

With the age of this team there should be more progression than regression. 4-6 to the + side with maybe 2 on the downward plane. That by no means is saying we are a lock for the postseason next year because with a normal year that is what it will take to keep us competitive until mid September.

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#17 stringer bell

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 08:35 PM

The area where the team will likely be as good is avoiding injuries. Other than Sanó, no position player missed more than two weeks. There were injuries amongst the pitchers, notably starters May, Hughes and Santiago.

 

The lineup projects pretty well IMHO, but I would think Rosario and Escobar can't be expected to provide the kind of power we saw in 2017.


#18 strumdatjaguar

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 06:02 AM

I think it is likley the Twins resign Belisle.This FA signed him last year and he produced during the second half.That and some twisted SABRE-justifying will get them to bring him back.Plus, I expect he wants to be back here.

Edited by strumdatjaguar, 06 October 2017 - 06:02 AM.


#19 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 07:00 AM

People keep predicting regression for Rosario and while I think he'll slide a bit, he could also progress. Remember that he had a terrible month to start 2017 (.660 OPS).

 

All of Rosario's metrics trended in the right direction and he's only entering his age 26 season. The power could be legit (and almost surely is to some extent).

 

When the season began, I suggested that all Rosario needed to do was stop swinging at the worst 3-4% of pitches thrown to him (and drew a few laughs that such a minor change would reap dividends). His wrists and contact ability could turn that small adjustment into him being a decent player (though I didn't expect the outbreak of power to the extent we saw this season).

 

As it turns out, that's exactly what Eddie did this season. His O-Zone Swing % dropped 4.1% (overall swing rate dropped 2.0%). As a result, his O-Zone Contact % jumped 6.5%, likely due to the fact he was laying off the pitches he couldn't hit and still swinging at the pitches he could. His overall contact rate jumped a whopping 5.3%. As I thought might be the case, that small change caused a domino effect.

 

Rosario's hitting profile used to be untenable. Now, given his wrists and bat speed, it might be sustainable.

 

Rosario didn't need to change his approach drastically to have success in MLB, he simply needed to lay off the junk pitches because they killed so many of his plate appearances. If you throw something close to the zone, Eddie can probably lay wood on it. In the past, that meant pitchers threw him absolute trash to get a swinging strike. Again, the domino effect. Eddie's K rate dropped a massive 7.7%.

 

It appears Eddie stopped swinging at the worst pitches. As a result, his contact rate shot up, his K rate dropped, he drew a few more walks, and he started forcing pitchers to give him something to hit instead of getting himself out. And that resulted in not only more contact but also better contact (hard hit up 1.6%, soft hit down 1.8%, line drive % up 0.9%, ground ball % down 3.9%).

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#20 Vanimal46

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 12:34 PM

brace-yourselves-erv-santanas-regression

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