Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Decision On Paul Molitor Looming

paul molitor thad levine derek falvey brian dozier
  • Please log in to reply
130 replies to this topic

#21 MileHighTwinsFan

MileHighTwinsFan

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 337 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 07:45 AM

To me the issue is who is the right match for the talent they have on the roster.With a young, athletic team - you want a manager that fully leverages those assets.  

 

At face value, Molitor would fit the bill - he is not afraid to use a running game - both bunting and base stealing to force the action on the field. His calm demeanor creates a stable force in the clubhouse.His overall knowledge of the game allows him to convey his wisdom to young players.

 

What is he lacking that keeps him from being viewed as one of the premiere managers in the game?What do Maddon and Francona have that Molitor doesn't?I would say experience and confidence.There have been times where I don't feel like Molitor is completely comfortable in his own skin. They show up in bungled double switches and attempts to remove a pitcher when there has already been a visit to the mound during an at bat.Those incidents are not deal breakers on their own, but they might signal that Molitor lacks a certain intuition about the game when he is managing.  

 

Girardi made the managerial move of the game when he pulled Severino.He acted confidently and decisively.Molitor might have waivered on making the same move with Santana.  

 

I think the question is whether Falvey and Levine want to give Molitor the time to continue to grow as a manager or if they need someone who they have confidence in on day one that they will be able to lead this team to the next level. 

  • Longdistancetwins and Hosken Bombo Disco like this

#22 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,028 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 05 October 2017 - 07:55 AM

To me the issue is who is the right match for the talent they have on the roster. With a young, athletic team - you want a manager that fully leverages those assets.

At face value, Molitor would fit the bill - he is not afraid to use a running game - both bunting and base stealing to force the action on the field. His calm demeanor creates a stable force in the clubhouse. His overall knowledge of the game allows him to convey his wisdom to young players.

What is he lacking that keeps him from being viewed as one of the premiere managers in the game? What do Maddon and Francona have that Molitor doesn't? I would say experience and confidence. There have been times where I don't feel like Molitor is completely comfortable in his own skin. They show up in bungled double switches and attempts to remove a pitcher when there has already been a visit to the mound during an at bat. Those incidents are not deal breakers on their own, but they might signal that Molitor lacks a certain intuition about the game when he is managing.

Girardi made the managerial move of the game when he pulled Severino. He acted confidently and decisively. Molitor might have waivered on making the same move with Santana.

I think the question is whether Falvey and Levine want to give Molitor the time to continue to grow as a manager or if they need someone who they have confidence in on day one that they will be able to lead this team to the next level.


Molitor would not have wavered in pulling Santana. He was fully prepared to do it if the jam ever got as bad as it did for Severino.

Molitor was plenty confident and aggressive with his bullpen when a victory was in sight and his best relievers were available.
  • WLFINN likes this
Papers...business papers.

#23 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 647 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 08:00 AM

I think it's entirely possible that the Twins will want him back, Molitor will want to come back, but they won't be able to come to an agreement on length of contract/balance of power. I would think it'd be likely Molitor would request a three-year deal and increased influence over roster decisions. And I see nothing wrong with that. Why come back on a short-term deal and be at the mercy of the front office?

 

That's all speculation, of course, but I could definitely see a scenario in which both sides desire a reunion, but the fine details prevent it from happening.

  • Mike Sixel, brvama, beckmt and 3 others like this

#24 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,028 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 05 October 2017 - 08:04 AM

I think it's entirely possible that the Twins will want him back, Molitor will want to come back, but they won't be able to come to an agreement on length of contract/balance of power. I would think it'd be likely Molitor would request a three-year deal and increased influence over roster decisions. And I see nothing wrong with that. Why come back on a short-term deal and be at the mercy of the front office?

That's all speculation, of course, but I could definitely see a scenario in which both sides desire a reunion, but the fine details prevent it from happening.


If Molitor won't sign a two year deal then he only has himself to blame.

The one issue I could see is control over his coaching staff, but he was open last year so I doubt he gives up his job to save Neil Allen (for example).
Papers...business papers.

#25 tarheeltwinsfan

tarheeltwinsfan

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 362 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 08:19 AM

 

Yeah, I don't think anyone in baseball would agree with that. He's a very smart man, and a very smart baseball man. I think it's just a matter of aligning "smartness" with Falvey's vision... and we know they worked together nearly everyday this year, so you have to think that's been developed, at least to some extent. 

It is my belief that Molitor and Falvey working together everyday, communicating and learning was, and will continue to be, beneficial to both men's knowledge. Falvey is newer to his job than Molitor is to his. Molitor has been in various baseball jobs about as long as Falvey has been living. I submit Molitor's Hall of Fame plaque grants him immediate respect from the players. The two men's respective attributes combined are better than two "old school" experienced baseball minds or two like-minded, brilliant "metrics minds". 

  • WLFINN likes this

#26 Eephus

Eephus

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 93 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 08:22 AM

If Molitor doesn't follow basic requests from the FO, he's not going to stay. If they say bunt less and he refuses, he'll probably not stay. If the FO says to stop burning through your bullpen in the 5th inning and Molly doesn't do it, he's not going to stay.

 

My guess is that if Molly was that obstinate with the FO, he would have been gone yesterday. So, I guess I'm saying he's been somewhat on the same page with FO. That said, if the FO is in love with someone else, Molly might be negotiating his role as Twins Executive Assistant GM of blah, blah, blah. 


#27 terrydactyls1947

terrydactyls1947

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 158 posts
  • LocationCumberland Center, Maine

Posted 05 October 2017 - 08:53 AM

 
Girardi made the managerial move of the game when he pulled Severino.He acted confidently and decisively.Molitor might have waivered on making the same move with Santana.


It's a lot easier to make quick moves when you have a couple dozen pitchers in the bullpen who are all better than any one pitcher in the Twins bullpen. Give Molitor some MLB-quality arms and he might manage a whole lot differently.
  • Otwins, WLFINN, SF Twins Fan and 2 others like this

#28 LA VIkes Fan

LA VIkes Fan

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 832 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 09:03 AM

I started off in the fire Molitor camp early in the year.Hi failings just seemed to obvious - too deferential to veterans, can't handle a bullpen, too set on defined bullpen roles, unwilling to trust younger players and give them a chance to fail and then succeed, etc.I have to admit that I was wrong. I think we all have to recognize his capacity for and willingness to change. He embraced the younger players and gave them rope when they failed so they could learn and succeed.He was flexible with his bullpen and even gave key roles to two fuzzy cheeked guys in Hildenberger and Busenitz. He didn't defer to vets and changed the lineup so the crucial 3-6 spots were all filled by developing players. He has the respect to his players and control of the clubhouse. I think he learned, improved and deserves a shot going forward. Two years seems right. Three is a problem if this year was a mirage. 

 

But what about the bunting? He does bunt too much but I think we should recognize why he does that. How many times this year have the Twins had a runner on second with no outs and not gotten him home?How many times have we stranded men on third with less than 2 outs? The yin and yang of young players is that they tend not to be good situational hitters and on this Twins team, they all stink at situational hitting except for Mauer. He bunts because his players aren't good at that skill. You watch the good teams play and are good situational hitters up and down the lineup and we just aren't.It is the second biggest difference between the Twins and the elite teams behind our pitching. Molitor bunts because he has to.Hopefully that will change as the team and young hitters mature and I don't think we should over criticize him for bunting or have it cost him his job when part of the reason for the bunts is he's trying to mask a flaw in the team by doing so. 

 

Bottom line - new 2 year contract at a respectable salary. 

  • Oldgoat_MN likes this

#29 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Billy G.O.A.T

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,623 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 09:11 AM

I just hope there isn't any kind of internal strife where the front office says he doesn't fit and Pohlad says tough luck, he stays.

That could sink the ship pretty quick. Pohlad has to concede to the baseball guys whatever their position might be.
  • glunn, Mike Sixel, Oldgoat_MN and 4 others like this

#30 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,817 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 09:11 AM

 

To me it is a no brainer - I would bring him back.The team plays hard- never quits. His bullpen usage would be better if he had the Yankees bullpen. Falvine did very little to fix what was an obvious weakness on this team. The Indian left McCallister, Otero and Goody OFF their playoff roster.No room. Compare that to what Molitor had to work with. 

 

Twins style is fun to watch. They play hard and aggressive. 

 

Literally the opposite was typed last year. Are we sure we aren't using results to assess process?

  • nicksaviking and Sconnie like this

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#31 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,817 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 09:12 AM

 

Seth, you mentioned that the Twins bunted as much or more than any team in baseball. Is there a source somewhere to show how much the Twins did bunt as a team, either sacrifice or otherwise, to compare to the rest of baseball? I'm curious if it really did happen more than other teams do. I'd almost have to imagine national league teams bunt more often with the pitcher hitting, but I don't know how to find that data.

Thanks!

 

there are entire threads on the site dedicated to this, and yes, they led the American League in sacrifice bunts, and that doesn't count all the failed attempts....

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#32 nytwinsfan

nytwinsfan

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 1,567 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 09:27 AM

I know this isn't how it is done, but if I were Falvine, I'd give Molitor a 1 year extension and tell him whether he is brought back for additional years will depend in large part on whether he continues to constantly bunt in stupid situations. I'd say, if you can dial that back, we'd be happy to have you for the longer term. If not, you're gone.

 

The bunting simply has to stop. I know it is kind of cliche now to make this criticism, but it really is no joke. It is putting the team in a statistical disadvantage and just CANNOT continue. I think Molitor's other attributes make him worth keeping, but if the bunting doesn't stop, he needs to go.

 


#33 SweetOne69

SweetOne69

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 648 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 09:36 AM

 

I don't know about that.Would Molitor have removed his best starter in the top of the first after recording 1 out?

 

I sincerely doubt it.It's one of his primary weaknesses...his strong tendency to wait until his starter has suffered max damage, and THEN remove him.And it has nothing to do with the quality of his bullpen.If it did, he'd leave the starter in after the 3 run HR too.

He had the bullpen warming up and if the Yankees would've kept on hitting Molitor would've made the switch, but Santana retire the next 2 batters after giving up the 3 run homer.

 

Severino wasn't pulled until after the single and double following Rosario's 2 run dinger.1 more hit and it would've been a 5 run lead with 1 out.Giardi had to pull Severino at that point.

  • Broker likes this

#34 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 7,471 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 09:43 AM

I love the No Surrender story in San Diego. I softened on Molly over time. He seems to have the pulse of the team, and I don't know if another manager could have gotten them to the postseason this year.

The FO has bigger fish to fry (pitching) than conducting a new manager search, or worse, installing the manager candidate they had in mind when they took the job. They were wrong about the team once already when they sold at the deadline. Just my opinion.

It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All Star

Game and an old timer's game. - Vin Scully


#35 howieramone2

howieramone2

    Just say no to myths!

  • Members
  • 812 posts
  • LocationMaple Grove/Schaumburg

Posted 05 October 2017 - 09:48 AM

 

Yes, this is the disagreement.IMO he lost plenty of games by leaving his starter in until the damage was done.

You can say the same thing about every manager there has ever been. I personally felt he did a very good job protecting Mejia this season.

Read my lips. Santana has shown absolutely no signs of decline.


#36 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,778 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 10:28 AM

My problem is you have to give a three year contract(that is the standard) at this time.I just am not sure I want to commit to Paul for 3 years and then have to have Pohlad cut the checks if things go sideways.I feel if there is to be an extension it will be announced today or tomorrow(it may have to wait due to baseball rules), but if there does not seem to be activity in that direction, they are working on a new position for Molitor.


#37 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Doom By Design | Tints By Joe™

  • Members
  • 1,914 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 10:44 AM

Obviously Falvey, Levine, that analytics folks, Jeff Pickler were involved in those daily discussions, and I’m certain it would have come up in discussions, yet Molitor continued to bunt quite often.

 

 

Statistically, a baserunner bunted over to 2nd is more likely to score. Molitor is using analytics. Those who don't like watching bunts on their TV and vent about it here are not using analytics. So what would the front office be saying to Molitor in this instance? Be more popular with the kids at home, or keep using analytics?

 

The number of managers and front offices in major and minor league baseball who don't like statistics or analytics is at or near zero. When Ryan was quoted saying otherwise, he was really saying that what you see on Fangraphs is mostly useless data. He wasn't wrong about that. The Twins were always collecting statistical data and using it to make decisions. Even Griffith was into it. Sure, in the past what was looked at was often wrong or irrelevant, but the same is true today.

Edited by Doomtints, 05 October 2017 - 10:46 AM.


#38 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,817 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 10:54 AM

 

Statistically, a baserunner bunted over to 2nd is more likely to score. Molitor is using analytics. Those who don't like watching bunts on their TV and vent about it here are not using analytics. So what would the front office be saying to Molitor in this instance? Be more popular with the kids at home, or keep using analytics?

 

The number of managers and front offices in major and minor league baseball who don't like statistics or analytics is at or near zero. When Ryan was quoted saying otherwise, he was really saying that what you see on Fangraphs is mostly useless data. He wasn't wrong about that. The Twins were always collecting statistical data and using it to make decisions. Even Griffith was into it. Sure, in the past what was looked at was often wrong or irrelevant, but the same is true today.

 

And, you reduce your odds of scoring more than 1 run. You completely left off the part of the argument that disagrees with your stance. 

 

there literally years and dozens of studies showing that sacrifice bunts early in game decrease your odds of scoring more runs, and of winning. So, yes, we are using analytics. 

Edited by Mike Sixel, 05 October 2017 - 11:01 AM.

  • nicksaviking, GCTF, Sconnie and 3 others like this

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#39 ToddlerHarmon

ToddlerHarmon

    Elizabethton

  • Members
  • 48 posts

Posted 05 October 2017 - 11:00 AM

Coming in to the season, Falvine had to consider whether these players would blossom, how long it would take, and whether Molitor was the right guy to make it happen.

It happened, in one season, and with visible, measurable in-season improvements in approach, mechanics, and results by several key players: Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Gibson, Polanco.

That only leaves the question of whether the talent could also turn into wins. It did.

I don't see how this adds up to anything but a new contract for Molitor.
  • howieramone2 likes this

#40 USAFChief

USAFChief

    Anyone got a smoke?

  • Twins Mods
  • 18,672 posts
  • LocationTucson

Posted 05 October 2017 - 11:22 AM

 

 

 

But what about the bunting? He does bunt too much but I think we should recognize why he does that. How many times this year have the Twins had a runner on second with no outs and not gotten him home?How many times have we stranded men on third with less than 2 outs? The yin and yang of young players is that they tend not to be good situational hitters and on this Twins team, they all stink at situational hitting except for Mauer. He bunts because his players aren't good at that skill. You watch the good teams play and are good situational hitters up and down the lineup and we just aren't.It is the second biggest difference between the Twins and the elite teams behind our pitching. Molitor bunts because he has to.Hopefully that will change as the team and young hitters mature and I don't think we should over criticize him for bunting or have it cost him his job when part of the reason for the bunts is he's trying to mask a flaw in the team by doing so. 

 

 

If the Twins aren't good situational hitters, why would you waste an out bunting, to put the team in a situation calling for situational hitting?

 

If they're not good at getting a runner in from third with 1 out...you bunt to put a runner on third with one out??

 

 

  • nicksaviking likes this

I am not the paranoid you're looking for.




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: paul molitor, thad levine, derek falvey, brian dozier