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Article: Charting A Twins Playoff Rotation

ervin santana jose berrios kyle gibson bartolo colon
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78 replies to this topic

#61 DocBauer

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 06:16 PM

Colon is not a trainwreck. Performance and a lift for the team, we may.nit even be in this position without his contributions. Could he be running out of gas and not be as good against top playoff teams as a result? Yes. But he could prove very useful.

I think the debate is, if you need that 4th SP, do you start the harder throwing Mejia on a short leash and have Colon as a veteran change of pace middle man, or start the experienced Colon on a short leash and have the hard throwing Mejia as a middle man?
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#62 mickeymental

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 06:35 PM

speaking of twins pitching, ricky nolasco already working his magic: angels down 2-0 in the first.
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#63 Platoon

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Posted 25 September 2017 - 07:08 PM

Yes, this. With a long bullpen in the postseason, getting 6+ out of your starter isn't as important.

That would depend a lot on your bullpen?

Edited by Platoon, 25 September 2017 - 07:09 PM.

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#64 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 03:10 AM

 

That would depend a lot on your bullpen?

Sure, but at least with a bullpen, you have a slight advantage by playing L/R splits and giving hitters a different look every inning or two.


#65 Dozier's Glorious Hair

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 05:20 AM

 

I think the debate is, if you need that 4th SP, do you start the harder throwing Mejia on a short leash and have Colon as a veteran change of pace middle man, or start the experienced Colon on a short leash and have the hard throwing Mejia as a middle man?

 

It's the Ricky Vaughn vs. Eddie Harris conundrum. What would Lou Brown do?


#66 Doctor Wu

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 05:43 AM

I'm getting a little nervous seeing the season pitch count total of Berrios (as noted by the article, he's already exceeded his previous career high) climbing higher as the season winds down. I'm in the camp that says you gotta treat these young pitchers cautiously. If he exceeds his previous total by TOO much, that could be risky for next year. With the Twins looking like a lock for the wild card game, I'd even consider pushing Berrios back in the rotation this coming week. Let Colon, or even Gee, takes his lumps again!


#67 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 06:23 AM

 

I'm getting a little nervous seeing the season pitch count total of Berrios (as noted by the article, he's already exceeded his previous career high) climbing higher as the season winds down. I'm in the camp that says you gotta treat these young pitchers cautiously. If he exceeds his previous total by TOO much, that could be risky for next year. With the Twins looking like a lock for the wild card game, I'd even consider pushing Berrios back in the rotation this coming week. Let Colon, or even Gee, takes his lumps again!

I wouldn't worry about it too much for a few reasons:

 

1. The Verducci Effect has largely been disproven. Sure, overuse can hurt a pitcher but there's no hard and fast rule how much, how quickly might hurt a guy.

 

2. Berrios has been a workhorse since he was drafted.

 

3. Berrios pitched 170 innings last season. If he's not ready for a full season workload now, he'll never be ready.

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#68 Doctor Wu

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 07:16 AM

 

I wouldn't worry about it too much for a few reasons:

 

1. The Verducci Effect has largely been disproven. Sure, overuse can hurt a pitcher but there's no hard and fast rule how much, how quickly might hurt a guy.

Thanks for that comment. That's reassuring. Reading those Verducci articles the past few years had made me much more aware of the potential damage that a sharp increase in workload can have on a young pitcher. Seemed like a sound analysis at the time. Hopefully, as you noted, Berrrios and his workhorse ethic will prevail!


#69 Doomtints

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 07:27 AM

 

There are others that could pitch the filler games. Besides, when Gardenhire decided to rest the troops after clinching in 2010, it started the culture of losing. Stay hot, stay focused, and try to win every game. It is good practice.

 

Gardy made that mistake more than once. 

 

Players should be rested, but to me it seemed he was overdoing it.


#70 Smarterthanyou

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 09:05 AM

 

You are right.  We still have to beat the Yankees to even have the discussion about the Indians.  They have been an astounding 29-2 in their recent hot streak but that is the thing about hot streaks.  They come to an end.  Look at the Dodgers this year. Starting to be called a Super Team and then lost 16 of 17 games.  There is some pressure on a team that comes in super hot. Indians are much more the team that was 10-6 against us than the team that has been 29-2 even though the 29-2 blinds people to the idea.   

Agree, and there's no point thinking about the Indians until then.


#71 davidc3915

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 10:11 AM

Wouldn't much of this hinge on when the WC spot is clinched?  If it's clinched early, starters could be rested to line up a potential ALDS rotation more easily.  Alas, one step at a time.....let's clinch that WC spot and start a "Party Thread" like the day they moved into first back in 2015!!!!!


#72 yarnivek1972

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 10:23 AM

 

Wouldn't much of this hinge on when the WC spot is clinched?  If it's clinched early, starters could be rested to line up a potential ALDS rotation more easily.  Alas, one step at a time.....let's clinch that WC spot and start a "Party Thread" like the day they moved into first back in 2015!!!!!

No, you can't.  Because if you don't win the WC game, there is no ALDS.  Say Erv doesn't have it and needs to be pulled in the second or even the first. If you don't have someone else rested and ready to step in, your season is over.  Given that Gibson is slated to start Friday and Berrios Saturday, it seems like the emergency back up for the WC is Mejia.

 

This is why pushing Gibson back to Friday might not be such a wonderful idea.  He was originally slated to start Wednesday.  Meaning, he would have been on full rest for the WC.  Sure, as it stands now, Gibson or Berrios would be rested for game one of the ALDS.  But what if you need one of them (or both) in the wild card game just to get there?


#73 MileHighTwinsFan

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 03:16 PM

I am less interested in the playoff rotation and more on how you beat the Yankees.  To me we win this game with matchups:

 

Neutralizing Judge and Sanchez's power at 2 and 3.

Limiting the impact of the lefties from Gregorius at 4, Bird at 6, Ellsbury at 8 and then Gardner at 1.  

 

Here is what I see.   

 

Santana pitches one time through the order plus gets through Judge and Sanchez - 12 at bats.   

If we are within one run - keep him in for another run through the rotation until he gets in trouble.  

Then its matchups the rest of the way - to include starters Gibson and Mejia.

 

Matchups Against Judge and Sanchez - Pressley, Busemitz, Hildenburger and Gibson

 

Against the rest of the lineup - Hildenburger, Mejia, Duffy, Rogers, Moya and Boshers

 

Belisle to close

 

Colon and Berrios are not on the wild card roster.  (Berrios starts game one of ALDS)

 

11 pitchers

Twins bench - Vargas, Granite, Adrianza, Gimenez, Goodrum 

 

Lineup:

 

Dozier

Mauer

Polanco

Rosario

Buxton

Grossman

Kepler

Escobar

Castro

 

 

 

 

Edited by MileHighTwinsFan, 26 September 2017 - 03:31 PM.


#74 yarnivek1972

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 03:24 PM

What possible purpose does Niko Goodrum serve?

At least Garver is marginally competent RH bat.

#75 MileHighTwinsFan

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 03:30 PM

 

What possible purpose does Niko Goodrum serve?

At least Garver is marginally competent RH bat.

Pinch runner


#76 yarnivek1972

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 04:04 PM

Pinch runner


Granite? Adrianza?

The only hitters the Twins might pinch hit for against the Yankees are Castro and Kepler. In both cases, most likely vs a LHP. Castro could be hit for vs a RHP too though. Probably only going to use Vargas vs RHP. Adrianza is better vs LHP, but not so terrific that he's likely to be used as a pinch hitter over Garver. Adrianza is more likely to be used as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.

#77 BlackJackMorris

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 04:53 PM

I am firmly in the camp that you should have 2 more starters ready to pitch against the Yanks if Ervin is getting hit around. IMO it should be Gibson or Berrios, and Meija. I say Meija obviously because he is the only lefty. If you have to throw 3 starters to get to the ALDS, it was well worth it. Worry about it afterwards.


#78 yarnivek1972

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 05:31 PM

Yeah. Colon on the postseason roster?

No.
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#79 yarnivek1972

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 08:53 PM

I will say though that Colon should start Sunday. Absolutely no reason to use anyone that might be needed Tuesday in that game.

At least not for more than a handful of pitches.



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