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Article: Getting To 85

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#21 drivlikejehu

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 10:45 AM

I think the playoff projections pretty much have it right, the Twins' WC odds are 55% or so . . . at this point they just have to play the games. One thing though - I'd think some of the theoretically 'hard' games for various teams could be misleading, to the extent that Cleveland, Houston, etc. might be setting up for the playoffs at the end of the regular season. 

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#22 Don Walcott

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 10:57 AM

If we can win some easy games against teams that have nothing to play for, like SD, TOR and DET, we can probably get 6-7 innings from some starters, and pitch the back end of the bullpen like we did last night.This gives our top bullpen arms much needed extra rest.This makes playing 18 games in 19 days much easier, and alleviates the potential negative effects from the team's weakest link.

 

Add to this, that if Mejia is decent, and Sano comes back strong, we're suddenly looking like a pretty deep squad.

 

I agree with John, that the Yankees aren't particularly scary, and I would love nothing more than to beat them in the WC game.

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#23 Dantes929

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 11:07 AM

From your summary it looks like it is also reasonable that 84 or even 83 wins could be enough.

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#24 spycake

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 11:40 AM

 

If you’re wondering why the Twins always seem to be favored in whichever playoff odds probability report you check every day, that’s why: the Twins road to 85 offers the least resistance and makes the most sense.

Well, that and the fact that we already had/have a head start of 1-3 games on those clubs. That's a pretty big deal with under 20 to play.

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#25 John Bonnes

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 12:26 PM

 

From your summary it looks like it is also reasonable that 84 or even 83 wins could be enough.

 

(knocking on wood furiously)

 

The remaining schedules suggest that isn't so crazy. A lot of those scenarios look pretty challenging for the teams other than the Twins. But I also wonder if one of them won't get "hot" and suddenly reel off four wins in row, even versus a few good teams. 

 

The other thing I wonder about a little is the games in the last week of the season. For instance, the Twins play the Indians in the second to last series of the season. By then the Indians will have clinched. Might that work in the Twins favor? (And similarly for the Royals versus the Diamondbacks in the last series of the year.)


#26 baumannmd

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 12:47 PM

 

I did a radio interview yesterday in St. Cloud and was asked if I think this Twins team is very good. My response was that there is clear separation between Houston, Cleveland, Boston and New York and the rest. Those are the 'very good' teams. But we're 144 games into the season and the Twins are 6 games over .500. At some point, we might have to start considering that maybe this team is good. Maybe not very good, but certainly good. Yes, they're capable of going 6-12 over the final 18 games, but that feels unlikely. And for all of their flaws (particularly some pitching and maybe some against left-handed pitching), they're 2 games better than the next group. All of the other teams below them have flaws that are just as big, and maybe bigger, than the Twins. 

 

I disagree with New York being clearly separated from the teams in the chase for the 2nd Wild Card. NYY is only a few games ahead of MN in the standings, and not even in a much better division. NYY has an edge in pitching, but on any given day, Santana, Berrios, Colon, or (yes, even) Gibson can create some real problems for an opposing lineup. The Twins have some big holes in their bullpen, but they've got some talented arms too.

 

I guess we'll find out early next week. Then hopefully for good this season a few weeks later.

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#27 Craig Arko

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 12:54 PM

I submit if the Twins are going to be anything more than one and done in the playoffs, they will need to be that team that gets 'hot' at the end of the season. Perhaps fueled by a resurgent Miguel Sano.

 

No reason why they couldn't do so, but you never know. Otherwise I think we get nine extra innings, and then wait for Spring.

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#28 Dantes929

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 12:57 PM

 

(knocking on wood furiously)

 

The remaining schedules suggest that isn't so crazy. A lot of those scenarios look pretty challenging for the teams other than the Twins. But I also wonder if one of them won't get "hot" and suddenly reel off four wins in row, even versus a few good teams. 

 

The other thing I wonder about a little is the games in the last week of the season. For instance, the Twins play the Indians in the second to last series of the season. By then the Indians will have clinched. Might that work in the Twins favor? (And similarly for the Royals versus the Diamondbacks in the last series of the year.)

I don't care to do the math but since there are a fair amount of games left with wild card hopefuls playing wild card hopefuls what would be the fewest wins possible for a team to make the WC.  Now statistically all of the teams are pretty close to .500 after 144 games or so and would be projected to go 50/50 from this point so the Twins could go 8-10 from this point, win 83 games and edge out the Angels or go 7-11 from this point with a play in to WC game.   

Of course looking at it statistically reminds me when three statisticians went out hunting, and came across a large deer. The first statistician fired, but missed, by a meter to the left. The second statistician fired, but also missed, by a meter to the right. The third statistician didn't fire, but shouted in triumph, "On the average we got it

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#29 USAFChief

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 01:22 PM

I don't care to do the math but since there are a fair amount of games left with wild card hopefuls playing wild card hopefuls what would be the fewest wins possible for a team to make the WC. Now statistically all of the teams are pretty close to .500 after 144 games or so and would be projected to go 50/50 from this point so the Twins could go 8-10 from this point, win 83 games and edge out the Angels or go 7-11 from this point with a play in to WC game.
Of course looking at it statistically reminds me when three statisticians went out hunting, and came across a large deer. The first statistician fired, but missed, by a meter to the left. The second statistician fired, but also missed, by a meter to the right. The third statistician didn't fire, but shouted in triumph, "On the average we got it

if a statistician sees you with one foot in boiling water and one foot in a frozen bucket of water, he'll assume you're pretty comfortable.
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#30 Loosey

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 01:31 PM

Based on the teams left and the records needed to get to 85 wins, I don't think it's crazy to think that the 2nd Wild Card team might get in with 84 or even 83 wins. 

 

All of the contenders currently have records ranging from 75-69 to 72-74 (as of 9/13).

 

 The Twins winning pct is .521 at the top of the heap now and lowest realistic 2nd wild card contender .493.

 

If the Twins go 9-9 they get to 84 wins which would be slightly under their current winning percentage but attainable.

 

The Angels at .507 today, would need to go 11-8 to get to 84, a .610 winning percentage against some very good teams.

 

The rest of the teams would need to play anywhere from 12-4 to 12-6 to get to 84 wins. So teams currently at or below .500 would need to play somewhere between .750 and .667 ball over the next 2.5 weeks.  Again, possible but not likely.  So the fact the Twins are the only team that can play under their current winning percentage and get in is probably a good thing.  But anything can happen.

 

Here's hoping they don't mess around and just keep winning.

 

 

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#31 Loosey

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 01:32 PM

Is there a tie breaker if teams tie for 2nd Wild Card?  Or is it a coin flip?


#32 gunnarthor

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 02:47 PM

 

Is there a tie breaker if teams tie for 2nd Wild Card?  Or is it a coin flip?

I believe they play a game 163.  Didn't that happen just a few years ago?

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#33 caninatl04

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 03:21 PM

 

I think the playoff projections pretty much have it right, the Twins' WC odds are 55% or so . . . at this point they just have to play the games. One thing though - I'd think some of the theoretically 'hard' games for various teams could be misleading, to the extent that Cleveland, Houston, etc. might be setting up for the playoffs at the end of the regular season. 

This is an excellent point.Fortunately, there's a good chance they'll be battling for home field advantage when they play other WC contenders.

 

And, if the final series matters for the Twins, they may be playing the Mud Hens rather than the Tigers.


#34 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 03:26 PM

 

Is there a tie breaker if teams tie for 2nd Wild Card?  Or is it a coin flip?

 

I believe they have rules for a 4 way tie, but if it goes to five teams, they have no rules.....

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#35 Dantes929

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 03:31 PM

 

I believe they have rules for a 4 way tie, but if it goes to five teams, they have no rules.....

4 teams would be kind of cool. I don't want the Twins to just win the WS. I want them to also set a record for most postseason wins in one year.

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#36 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 03:37 PM

I'd agree with all of that, except for one nitpick: (whispers) I don't think the Yankees are even a half step better than the rest of the Wild Card teams. Maybe a quarter step. Bring 'em on.


Yeah, even the Twins beat them 2 of 3. For this franchise, that's like climbing Everest.

#37 VirginSturgeon

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 04:05 PM

I just have a hard time seeing a scenario that our beloved Twins don't make the playoffs.  For as resilient as they have been throughout the year, I see no reason not to be confident going into these last 3 weeks.  This team is playoff bound and I think we still can overtake the Yankees for the top spot.  I am a betting man and I am going to be playing the ML on the Twins the rest of the season. $$$

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#38 gil4

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 07:00 AM

Baseball voodoo being what it is, expect a loss today. What is baseball voodoo, you ask? Its the unwritten tendencies, like striking out after hitting a foul ball out of the park, like a runner getting to third base with no outs should score, and like losing after a big win (16-0 qualifies).

... And where are all the guys that were calling for Molly to be fired? I'll tell you where: on the bandwagon.


Eddie Rosario stuck a pretty big pin in that voodoo doll!

I think we're resigned to the fact that he's not getting fired, but we still wish he wouldn't bunt so much.
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#39 gil4

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 07:11 AM

I just have a hard time seeing a scenario that our beloved Twins don't make the playoffs.


I've been a Vikings fan since 1970, so I can.

I also saw the 1987 Twins go on a run in October despite having pitching staff that was almost as bad as this one, so I can see scenarios going the other way, too.
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#40 spinowner

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 07:31 AM

 

Much like the 87 and 91 squads.

Much like them offensively. Not so much on the mound.

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