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Article: Three-Bagger: Heroic Hildy, Golden Buck & Molitor's Last Stand

trevor hildenberger byron buxton paul molitor
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#61 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 03:32 PM

 

Some of the teams that are low in sacrifice bunts are higher in GIDP, ie 2 outs instead of 1.Tricky business this is

 

That's why they have big giant studies that look at all possible outcomes, like success, failure, double plays, hits after you give up on bunting, etc. So we don't have to post all the individual outcomes and address them all independently. 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#62 Thrylos

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 03:42 PM

You cannot judge Molitor without bring 2016 into conversation.He is the leader of the worst team the Twins had had since they moved to MN.The pitching has sucked equally in 2016 and 2017, if you take ERA and the other numbers (like WHIP) that are affected by the much improved Twins' fielding in 2017. 

 

Allen has to go, no matter how you look at it.About time that the Cleveland Pitching Guru brings someone who knows pitching to be the pitching coach.Vavra has to go too, if not for any other reason, just because of the Gardenhire and the 99+96+96 (and now +103) taint.

 

Molitor needs to go as well because he does not understand the concept of win probability and the fact that you have higher win probability with a man on first and no outs vs with a man on second and 1 out. Bunting your hottest hitter multiple times in a game and in a series should be a fatal offense for a manager in 2017.Same with burning one of the 2-3 reliable bullpen arms (Rogers) you have, just to get one out. 

 

Hope that he goes Kelly's way, with his head up and the team in an upswing and goes to Fort Myers to do what Kelly used to do.  He is 61.Kelly was a decade younger when he retired.

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#63 spycake

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 03:47 PM

I think he changes it for the rest of the season? He has a hot hand and gives Molyl someone he can hand the ball to in a late game with some confidence (perhaps misplaced but confidence nonetheless). I'd agree with you about going forward into next year though, it's too early to tell.

That said, I don't want the Twins throwing money around in bullpen free agency for next year. There are a lot of young arms coming up and I don't want them blocked by guys who are a crapshoot. I'd like to see the Twins make a few low-risk free agent pickups like the did with Belisle/Breslow.

I'm not ready to give up on Duffey, Pressley etc. like many here seem to be. I'm also hopeful that a number of minor league guys are going to be coming back from injury and can hopefully contribute. The Twins have a lot of fun young arms and I'd like to see them bringing in some low cost vets to supplement the growing pains of young guys.

Mostly, I'd like them to make some decisions on whether guys like Gee, Hurlbut, Sledgers are starters or relievers in the long term. If they're not starters (and I doubt anyone except maybe Slegers is), they should start working them as relievers. Taylor Rogers shows the benefits of doing that (and to a lesser extent Gee, though he's been used as a long man and not a set-up guy).


There is assumption that interest in upgrading our pen from the outside means big money mediocrity deal. It's not necessarily true. There are usually some interesting guys who are a step up from Breslow/Belisle. Trade is another avenue. And of course, sometimes there is a FA like Andrew Miller who is worth the risk of bigger money. Maybe nothing will come of it this winter, but I see no reason to close that avenue off now. We will have plenty of spots left for arms that want to step up.

FWIW, Gee is a FA, and Hurlbut is a minor league FA. Neither should have any bearing on our 2018 pen plans. The fact that you would even bother to mention them tells me your pen plan is uncomfortably thin.

#64 by jiminy

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 04:02 PM

 

Some guy did some number crunching in an article quite a few years ago. Actually runner on first ,no outs, a sacrifice increases your chances of scoring exactly one run. Molitor is doing a pretty good job in one run games, as someone else on this board calledthe Twins lucky in that category. Perhaps Moliror might be smarter than some here give him credit for.

I just saw him sac bunt in the second inning or son. That's just wrong, wrong, wrong. If you're tied in the 9th, sure, sacrifice. You only need one run. If it's the second, you need more than one. Sacrifices kill big innings.

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#65 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 04:04 PM

Paul Molitor was at least 5 years older when hired than any previous Twins manager, all the way back to Cookie Lavagetto. Most were in their early to mid 40s.
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#66 spycake

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 04:20 PM

Paul Molitor was at least 5 years older when hired than any previous Twins manager, all the way back to Cookie Lavagetto. Most were in their early to mid 40s.


To be fair, I think they first wanted to hire Molitor back in his mid-40s. :)

#67 Don Walcott

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 05:13 PM

Joe Maddon almost lost the Cubs the WS last year with some very questionable, if not downright terrible, tactical decisions. But I believe nobody talks about it much because he's considered to be very good at a bunch of other things, including leading a team and building team unity. It's hard to find someone who ticks all of the boxes.

 

It does seem like this team is resilient and together. Not sure what happened in 2016, but Molly must be doing something right in that way this year. I wonder whether and to what extent the FO gives any guidance in tactics during the season. Molly definitely does some odd things with the lineup.As for the bullpen, there are times I'm bemused at his decisions (as are many on this site), but he hasn't been given the best staff to work with.He'd probably look a lot smarter with Cleveland's staff.

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#68 snepp

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 05:27 PM

 

Fair point. The Twins are among the lowest teams in GIDP%, per b-ref, but there aren't huge differences. The Twins are at 9%. They've had a runner at first and less than two outs 1,047 times and have hit into 94 double plays.

 

The Royals have the worst rate at 13.5%. League average is 11%.

 

Yet the Royals have the 3rd lowest groundball rate in the league, which makes their league leading GIDP rate all the more "impressive."

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#69 theBOMisthebomb

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 07:08 PM

Baseball players aren't heroes.

"Lighten up, Francis."
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#70 Government Mule

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 01:13 AM

 

B-Ref tracks sac bunt attempts, though I don't know what their methodology is. Sometimes it can be tough to tell whether a player is bunting on their own/trying to bunt for a hit or if he was asked to lay down a sac bunt. 

 

Either way, according to their data the Twins lead the AL in sac bunt attempts over the past three seasons with 159. Cleveland is second with 151, followed by the White Sox at 143. But the average for AL teams over the last three years is 113. A few teams almost never bunt. Oakland (65), Boston (77) and Baltimore (78) all have bunted less than half as much as the Twins have.

Hoe do you get bref to state failed sacrifices? I see a column for SH, but not 0-SH it failed.  Fangraphs will tell you how many times tried and made for bunts. Nothing about sacrifice failures


#71 spycake

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 05:29 AM

Hoe do you get bref to state failed sacrifices? I see a column for SH, but not 0-SH it failed. Fangraphs will tell you how many times tried and made for bunts. Nothing about sacrifice failures

Situational Hitting page:

https://www.baseball...l-batting.shtml

Edited by spycake, 12 September 2017 - 05:29 AM.


#72 Blake

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 08:42 AM

 

B-Ref tracks sac bunt attempts, though I don't know what their methodology is. Sometimes it can be tough to tell whether a player is bunting on their own/trying to bunt for a hit or if he was asked to lay down a sac bunt. 

 

Either way, according to their data the Twins lead the AL in sac bunt attempts over the past three seasons with 159. Cleveland is second with 151, followed by the White Sox at 143. But the average for AL teams over the last three years is 113. A few teams almost never bunt. Oakland (65), Boston (77) and Baltimore (78) all have bunted less than half as much as the Twins have.

If the sac bunt strategy is based on a flawed premise, which, from what I've read, it is, then it doesn't matter how many times the sac bunt has been implemented. 

 

What needs to be looked at is when the bunt was attempted and by what player. 

 

From what I've seen this year, the sac bunt is almost automatic with Molitor, if it's late in the game, runner on first, no one out..no matter who is at the plate.

 

I've linked to it before, but Bill James Online did some number crunching and came to the conclusion the sac bunt has very limited value and tends to be a wast of outs.

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#73 Nick Nelson

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 11:17 AM

Thrylos calling for mass firings, must be a day ending in Y. 

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#74 Thrylos

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 01:00 PM

 

Thrylos calling for mass firings, must be a day ending in Y. 

 

Cute and with substance.

 

Allen, Molitor, Vavra are not mass firings from a 103 L staff.I explained in depth why they need to go away from a team that has improved despite them.

Edited by Thrylos, 12 September 2017 - 01:02 PM.

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#75 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 01:53 PM

 

Cute and with substance.

 

Allen, Molitor, Vavra are not mass firings from a 103 L staff.I explained in depth why they need to go away from a team that has improved despite them.

There was plenty of accountability for the 2016 season

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#76 Thrylos

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 02:10 PM

 

There was plenty of accountability for the 2016 season

 

Plenty?Let's see who was fired after the season:The hitting and first base coach of a team that had the worst pitching and fielding in baseball; every one in the Front office, but that man who was responsible for the Fort Myers improvements, stayed.

 

That's like blaming Jerry and Stelly for the 99 L season...

Edited by Thrylos, 12 September 2017 - 02:11 PM.

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#77 drjim

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 02:22 PM

 

Plenty?Let's see who was fired after the season:The hitting and first base coach of a team that had the worst pitching and fielding in baseball; every one in the Front office, but that man who was responsible for the Fort Myers improvements, stayed.

 

That's like blaming Jerry and Stelly for the 99 L season...

 

The General Manager was fired. Strikes me as somewhat significant.

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#78 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 02:26 PM

Plenty?Let's see who was fired after the season:The hitting and first base coach of a team that had the worst pitching and fielding in baseball; every one in the Front office, but that man who was responsible for the Fort Myers improvements, stayed.
 
That's like blaming Jerry and Stelly for the 99 L season...

not only the GM, but more departures have continued through this season
He measured the achievements of others by what they had accomplished, asking of them that they measure him by what he envisaged or planned.
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#79 ashbury

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 02:38 PM

Moderator's note: Threads that touch on non-player personnel have a tendency to spiral into a broad narrative on the state of the front office or the franchise in general. Please, we've gone about far enough down that rabbit hole for this thread. The topic raised here was Molitor's lame-duck status.

 

The purpose is not to squelch opinions or discussion; but start a new thread if you really feel compelled to launch a big-picture retrospective.

Every nation ridicules other nations, and all are right. -- Arthur Schopenhauer


#80 Thrylos

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 02:45 PM

 

The General Manager was fired. Strikes me as somewhat significant.

 

IIRC he was not fired after the season when the team L 103...

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