Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Three-Bagger: Heroic Hildy, Golden Buck & Molitor's Last Stand

trevor hildenberger byron buxton paul molitor
  • Please log in to reply
80 replies to this topic

#21 markos

markos

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,125 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 10:44 AM

 

Interesting that both of the HR were to Jose Iglesias!  Didn't remember that.

 

The HR came in Hildenberger's 1st and 3rd PAs vs Iglesias, with a groundout in between.  How much are those 2 HR swinging the data?  That could be about ~.120 OPS points right there.  Other XBH:

 

Kinsler (1st of 2 PA)

Abreu, Altuve, and Kevan Smith (2nd of 2 PA)

4 others (1st and only PA)

 

All 4 of his BB came to "1st and only PA" guys too (3 in his first 3 MLB games).

 

Where did you find this split/data?

Baseball Reference has a pitcher-vs-batter page:

https://www.baseball...tcher=hildetr01

 

For this, I just downloaded to excel and calculated the two separate groups. I was too lazy to go through the 20+ batter with multiple PAs and move their 1st PA into another column, though each batter's hyperlink lists the PAs. 


#22 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Doom By Design | Tints By Joe™

  • Members
  • 1,914 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 10:45 AM

 

Why wouldn't a "long sit down" with Molitor have happened LAST off season?

 

The owner of the team declared any Molitor discussions out of bounds.

  • gunnarthor, howieramone2 and bighat like this

#23 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 11,776 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 10:49 AM

 

Baseball Reference has a pitcher-vs-batter page:

https://www.baseball...tcher=hildetr01

 

For this, I just downloaded to excel and calculated the two separate groups. I was too lazy to go through the 20+ batter with multiple PAs and move their 1st PA into another column, though each batter's hyperlink lists the PAs. 

Got it.  I was looking at that page too, but thought there might be a quicker way.


#24 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 11,776 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 10:50 AM

 

The owner of the team declared any Molitor discussions out of bounds.

A "sit down" isn't about firing him, it's about talking to him.


#25 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Doom By Design | Tints By Joe™

  • Members
  • 1,914 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 10:58 AM

 

A "sit down" isn't about firing him, it's about talking to him.

 

If you are implying they never had a conversation, that's silly.

 

The connotation is they "had a conversation" but the conversation was about how he has to do a better job.  I doubt that happened because his job status was out of their hands.  In that situation, you play nice.

  • old nurse likes this

#26 old nurse

old nurse

    Member

  • Members
  • 2,988 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 11:00 AM

 

Derek Falvey was hired 2 days after the World Series concluded.  What do you mean acting gm?

I guess when I said nice job Rob people wold understand that it was Rob Antony. He had a month after the season to talk with Molitor about the season they were involved in.Thetime to talk about the season and digest it is immediately after the season. Falvey was hired on October 2, 2016. He could take the job officially until after the series, when the Indians season was done.In the three months before the season started I would think it unimaginable that they did not have conversations about the past season. Falvey's understanding of the Twins was from afar. His understanding of the Twins is going to come from that and the retained employees. His concern would not be of the season past but the upcoming.


#27 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 11,776 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 11:07 AM

 

If you are implying they never had a conversation, that's silly.

 

The connotation is they "had a conversation" but the conversation was about how he has to do a better job.  I doubt that happened because his job status was out of their hands.  In that situation, you play nice.

I'm not implying anything more than what Nick said in the article: "If the team re-ups with Molitor, I do hope that Falvey and Levine have a long sit-down with him during the offseason to go over run-scoring matrixes, statistical probabilities and sacrifice bunting."

 

No reason they couldn't have sat down with him last offseason and done the same thing.  (In fact, it doesn't really make sense not to do that last offseason. I'd want to see how he adjusts with that information before I had to make a decision on re-upping him.)


#28 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Doom By Design | Tints By Joe™

  • Members
  • 1,914 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 11:12 AM

So you are going with the "that's silly" narrative. OK.


#29 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,817 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 11:16 AM

I'm assuming they have conversations with him all during the year......and that he likes to bunt no matter what the math says. Some people just believe things, no matter what science/math say....

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#30 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 11,776 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 11:21 AM

 

So you are going with the "that's silly" narrative. OK.

I'm not saying they never had that conversation.  Nick hopes that if the re-up with Molitor, they sit down with him and have that conversation this winter.  I'm saying, they either had that conversation last winter and Molitor has not responded to it terribly well in 2017, in which case why would we re-up him and try the conversation again.  Or they didn't have that conversation, in which case they I'm not sure why you'd re-up him before having the conversation.


#31 USAFChief

USAFChief

    Anyone got a smoke?

  • Twins Mods
  • 18,667 posts
  • LocationTucson

Posted 11 September 2017 - 11:22 AM

The owner of the team declared any Molitor discussions out of bounds.


Got a link for this assertion?

I am not the paranoid you're looking for.


#32 Craig Arko

Craig Arko

    Cassini-Huygens

  • Members
  • 7,800 posts
  • LocationSaturn's atmosphere and on Titan

Posted 11 September 2017 - 11:22 AM

 

I'm assuming they have conversations with him all during the year......and that he likes to bunt no matter what the math says. Some people just believe things, no matter what science/math say....

https://www.tfes.org

"Insanity is relative. It depends on who has who locked in what cage." - Ray Bradbury


#33 ThejacKmp

ThejacKmp

    Wing Commander

  • Members
  • 1,370 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 11:27 AM

 

Well, his overall MLB sample size is pretty small too, but that didn't stop Nick from saying "Hildenberger single-handedly changes the outlook of the bullpen going forward dramatically." :)

 

I think it's fair to pump the brakes a bit on that.  I don't want the team to say "the bullpen is just fine with minimal changes" yet again this winter...

 

I think he changes it for the rest of the season? He has a hot hand and gives Molyl someone he can hand the ball to in a late game with some confidence (perhaps misplaced but confidence nonetheless). I'd agree with you about going forward into next year though, it's too early to tell.

 

That said, I don't want the Twins throwing money around in bullpen free agency for next year. There are a lot of young arms coming up and I don't want them blocked by guys who are a crapshoot. I'd like to see the Twins make a few low-risk free agent pickups like the did with Belisle/Breslow.

 

I'm not ready to give up on Duffey, Pressley etc. like many here seem to be. I'm also hopeful that a number of minor league guys are going to be coming back from injury and can hopefully contribute. The Twins have a lot of fun young arms and I'd like to see them bringing in some low cost vets to supplement the growing pains of young guys.

 

Mostly, I'd like them to make some decisions on whether guys like Gee, Hurlbut, Sledgers are starters or relievers in the long term. If they're not starters (and I doubt anyone except maybe Slegers is), they should start working them as relievers. Taylor Rogers shows the benefits of doing that (and to a lesser extent Gee, though he's been used as a long man and not a set-up guy).


#34 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 3,065 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 11:41 AM

 

No reason they couldn't have sat down with him last offseason and done the same thing.  (In fact, it doesn't really make sense not to do that last offseason. I'd want to see how he adjusts with that information before I had to make a decision on re-upping him.)

They were still in the initial stages of getting to know Molitor last offseason. Now they've had a full season of working closely with him in a collaborative manner. I think such conversations would be much more in-depth and substantive this winter. 

  • Blake, Jerr and Original Whizzinator like this

#35 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 11,776 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 11:50 AM

 

They were still in the initial stages of getting to know Molitor last offseason. Now they've had a full season of working closely with him in a collaborative manner. I think such conversations would be much more in-depth and substantive this winter. 

Sure, but I don't think the topics you mention required "getting to know" Molitor to engage in a meaningful way.  "Hi Paul, nice to meet you. What do you think of the state of the team?  Do you have any concerns? [Listen and respond to concerns.] Also, here are some data and tools that we provided Francona with in Cleveland, and they really helped him. Do you use anything like this now?  If not, we'd love to try in 2017. We'll touch base with you throughout to season to see how it's going."

 

If we're nearly a year into it, and he's still trying silly sac bunts in a pennant race, I'm not sure he's passing the "working closely in a collaborative manner" test that should contribute to the decision whether to re-up or not.

  • USAFChief likes this

#36 nytwinsfan

nytwinsfan

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 1,567 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 12:50 PM

 

Yes, Molitor's love for the sacrifice bunt is painful. And yes, it might have cost them a run here and there. But, when you average it all out over the year, it comes out in the wash. That's why I actually like measurements that try not to take averages over the year, but look at discrete outcomes in a game. But even those are tiny differences usually. And even those wash out when you add them up (some negative, some positive).

 

those are my theories, anyway.

I don't understand what you mean by it all averages out. What reason is there to think that? If he was really good on some kinds of strategic decisions, and really bad on others, maybe that would be the way to look at it. But can you point to one area of tactics or strategy where he is good enough to compensate for the terrible bunting, base stealing attempts (by mediocre runners) and relief pitcher use? I sure can't. And as you say, his player management is difficult to judge, so we don't know whether or not that averages out with his bad strategy/tactics. If I saw Molitor learning from his mistakes, I might think differently. But if anything he is just becoming more and more stubborn.


#37 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,817 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 01:10 PM

 

I don't understand what you mean by it all averages out. What reason is there to think that? If he was really good on some kinds of strategic decisions, and really bad on others, maybe that would be the way to look at it. But can you point to one area of tactics or strategy where he is good enough to compensate for the terrible bunting, base stealing attempts (by mediocre runners) and relief pitcher use? I sure can't. And as you say, his player management is difficult to judge, so we don't know whether or not that averages out with his bad strategy/tactics. If I saw Molitor learning from his mistakes, I might think differently. But if anything he is just becoming more and more stubborn.

 

that was a general statement on averages, not on Molitor in specific. Like, the average temperature in a hospital being 98 degrees doesn't tell me much.....

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#38 Craig Arko

Craig Arko

    Cassini-Huygens

  • Members
  • 7,800 posts
  • LocationSaturn's atmosphere and on Titan

Posted 11 September 2017 - 01:20 PM

 

that was a general statement on averages, not on Molitor in specific. Like, the average temperature in a hospital being 98 degrees doesn't tell me much.....

Suggests a possible problem with the thermostat.

  • Blake and Mike Sixel like this

"Insanity is relative. It depends on who has who locked in what cage." - Ray Bradbury


#39 Don Walcott

Don Walcott

    Ft Myers

  • Members
  • 491 posts
  • LocationSanta Fe, NM

Posted 11 September 2017 - 01:23 PM

 

Suggests a possible problem with the thermostat.

It's the hot yoga classroom.

  • Mike Sixel likes this

#40 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,817 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 01:28 PM

 

Suggests a possible problem with the thermostat.

 

nicely played!

  • Blake and Craig Arko like this

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: trevor hildenberger, byron buxton, paul molitor