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How Things Shape Up, Sept. 9 edition

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#1 IndianaTwin

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Posted 09 September 2017 - 05:41 PM

Baseball-reference.com has a nice standings page that allows for combining a lot of great information. https://www.baseball...standings.shtml

 

From there, I've decided to boil down some of the data to a working scoresheet of the remainder of the season and make some suggestions as to how things seem to shape up for the Twins and the other teams in the Wild Card mix. This does not take into account any of today’s action.

A few explanatory notes for each team’s profile:

 

Team name: Duh.

  • Record: Actual won-loss record.
  • Games ahead/back: (In the second Wild Card chase).
  • Luck: (this compares their Pythagorean record to their actual record, giving a suggestion of whether they are over- or under-performing. A team with a positive number (like the Twins have been for most of the year) has won more games than their runs scored/allowed would suggest).
  • Games remaining against “good” teams: I’ve noted how many games remaining the team has against the three “good” teams in the league, which happen to be the three division leaders – Houston, Cleveland, and Boston. Because Boston is leading the division and is well ahead of the Yankees, and because the Yankees are in the Wild-Card chase, I drew the line between Boston and Yankees as the marker between “good” and “middle.”
  • Games against “middle” teams: Games remaining against the teams that are in the middle segment of the league (Yankees, Twins, Angels, Texas, Baltimore, Seattle, Toronto, Kansas City).
  • Games against the “bad” teams: Games against the teams that have struggled (Toronto, Detroit, Oakland, White Sox).
     (Note: There are a few remaining interleague games which are added into the groupings.)
  • Average record for remaining games: A quantifiable measure of their remaining strength of schedule, this is the average current record for their remaining opponents.

Summary: My comments.

 

Here goes…

 

YANKEES

  • Record: 75-65.
  • Games ahead/back: +1.5
  • Luck: -9
  • Games against good: 0
  • Games against middle: Home 11 (Min 3, Bal 4, TB 3, KC 1), Road 5 (TB 3, Tex 2).
  • Games against bad: Home 3 (Tor 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).
  • Average record for remaining games: 69-72.
  • Summary: Their Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) has them 9 games better than their actual record. They are the only team in the mix with no games remaining against a good team. They also have 14 of their remaining 22 games at home, including 11 of 16 of the games against teams remaining in the WC chase. Based on all that, I think it will be tough for the Twins to catch them.

TWINS

  • Record: 74-67.
  • Games ahead/back: ---
  • Luck: 3.
  • Games against good: Road 3 (Cle 3).
  • Games against middle: Road 5 (NYY 3, KC 2).
  • Games against bad: Home 9 (Tor 4, Det 3, SD 2), Road 4 (Det 4).
  • Average record for remaining games: 67-72.
  • Summary: The knock on the Twins is that they have over-performed, but 5 of the 8 in the WC chase have done that as well. Only the Yankees and Rangers have under-performed, so the Twins are not the only team that would be expected to regress a bit. In addition, the Twins have the easiest remaining schedule, both in terms of remaining record and in terms of having 13 of their remaining 21 games against bad teams, with 9 of those games at home. The remaining schedule seems to be as much in the Twins favor as it is for anyone, save the Yankees and Royals.

LA ANGELS

  • Record: 72-69.
  • Games ahead/back: -2
  • Luck: 1
  • Games against good: Home 6 (Cle 3, Hou 3), Road 3 (Hou 3).
  • Games against middle: Home 6 (Sea 3, Tex 3), Road 2 (Sea 2).
  • Games against bad: Road 4 (CWS 4).
  • Average record for remaining games: 73-66.
  • Summary: The Angels have one of the toughest remaining schedules, with only Tampa Bay having a tougher schedule. They have the most games remaining against good teams, and Houston could do us a favor by stomping on them.

TEXAS

  • Record: 71-69.
  • Games ahead/back: -2.5.
  • Luck: -3
  • Games against good: Home 3 (Hou 3).
  • Games against middle: Home 6 (NYY 2, Sea 4), Road 6 (LAA 3, Sea 3).
  • Games against bad: Home 4 (Oak 4), Road 3 (Oak 3).
  • Average record for remaining games: 69-70.
  • Summary: Aside from the Yankees, the Rangers are the only team in which PWP regression would suggest that they pick up a game or two. Combined with having a generally easy schedule, with just 3 games against good teams (all at home) and 7 against bad teams makes this the team that at least on paper appears to be the most threatening to me.

ORIOLES

  • Record: 71-70.
  • Games ahead/back: -3.5
  • Luck: 4
  • Games against good: Home 3 (Bos 3), Road 2 (Cle 2).
  • Games against middle: Home 4 (TB 4), Road 7 (NYY 4, TB 3).
  • Games against bad: Road 5 (Pit 2, Tor 3).
  • Average record for remaining games: 72-68.
  • Summary: The Orioles have been luckier than the Twins and have one of the toughest remaining schedules, including playing Cleveland today and tomorrow amidst their winning streak. At 3.5 games back, they have a tough row to hoe.

MARINERS

  • Record: 70-71.
  • Games ahead/back: -4
  • Luck: 2.
  • Games against good: Home 3 (Cle 3), Road 3 (Hou 3).
  • Games against middle: Home 5 (LAA 2, Tex 3), Road 7 (LAA 3, Tex 4).
  • Games against bad: Road 3 (Oak 3).
  • Average record for remaining games: 73-66.
  • Summary: Have also been lucky and have a tough remaining schedule. They have only 3 games remaining against bad teams, so they are less likely to benefit from opponents’ ineptitude. Also in a tough spot.

RAYS

  • Record: 70-72.
  • Games ahead/back: -4.5
  • Luck: 0
  • Games against good: Home 5 (Bos 2, Cubs 2), Road 2 (Bos 2).
  • Games against middle: Home 6 (Bal 3, NYY 3), Road 7 (Bal 4, NYY 3).
  • Games against bad: 0.
  • Average record for remaining games: 75-65.
  • Summary: The Rays are probably in the toughest spot in terms of reaching the playoffs. Not only are they behind five other teams, they have the toughest remaining schedule, with 8 of their remaining 20 games against good teams and none against bad teams.

ROYALS

  • Record: 69-71.
  • Games ahead/back: -4.5.
  • Luck: 6
  • Games against good: Home 3 (Ariz 3), Road 4 (Cle 4).
  • Games against middle: Home 2 (Min 2), Road 1 (NYY 1).
  • Games against bad: Home 6 (CWS 3, Det 3), Road 6 (Tor 3, CWS 3).
  • Average record for remaining games: 68-72.
  • Summary: The Royals also are in a tough spot, having been lucky and being at the bottom of this list. What they do have going for them is that they have 12 of their remaining 22 games against bad teams. Only the Twins have an easier schedule. They really could use these two games against the Twins.

#2 yarnivek1972

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Posted 09 September 2017 - 06:30 PM

The Twins play the Yankees head to head. To catch them, they just need to beat them.

And if they can't beat them 2 of 3 the chances of them winning a one and done are remote.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 09 September 2017 - 06:31 PM.