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Article: MIN 10, TB 6: Twins Prevail Thanks to Big Error

brian dozier jorge polanco ehire adrianza eduardo escobar aaron slegers
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#21 mikelink45

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 04:56 PM

 

I'm not willing to put that ALL on him. Some of it could be Molitor letting him face RHB with runners on. For a specialist like Boshers, the two most important numbers are how he does against LHB and how he does against the first batter he faces (which, in theory should almost always be a LHB). He gave up a homer to a leftie the other day. That's his failure all the way. But, it does happen. Even O'Rourke gave up the one to Granderson last year.

I haven't been able to locate first batter faced data, but I know I have seen it before. It's a very key stat for a reliever. After all, you were brought in to get that guy.

btw, looking at game logs on B-R, one can check monthly inherited runner data. For Boshers: April 1-0, May 0-0, June 7-3, July 2-2, August 6-0, September 4-3. So, he did fine in August. Other than that, not so much.

 Nice response.  I am still not a Bosher backer, but I appreciate having data to look at. 


#22 mikelink45

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 04:56 PM

 

I'm not willing to put that ALL on him. Some of it could be Molitor letting him face RHB with runners on. For a specialist like Boshers, the two most important numbers are how he does against LHB and how he does against the first batter he faces (which, in theory should almost always be a LHB). He gave up a homer to a leftie the other day. That's his failure all the way. But, it does happen. Even O'Rourke gave up the one to Granderson last year.

I haven't been able to locate first batter faced data, but I know I have seen it before. It's a very key stat for a reliever. After all, you were brought in to get that guy.

btw, looking at game logs on B-R, one can check monthly inherited runner data. For Boshers: April 1-0, May 0-0, June 7-3, July 2-2, August 6-0, September 4-3. So, he did fine in August. Other than that, not so much.

 Nice response.  I am still not a Bosher backer, but I appreciate having data to look at. 


#23 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 04:58 PM

Also, Boshers is not a specialist.
He SHOULD be, but unfortunately he's not used that way.

#24 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 05:35 PM

I've got a crazy theory that inherited runners, if they score, should count towards the former and latter pitcher, on a proportional basis.

So if Presley relieves Colón with men on second and third, and both score, for the runner on second, I would give Colón 0.5 runs towards his ERA, and Presley 0.5 towards his. For the runner on third, I would give 0.75 to Colón and 0.25 to Presley.

It's not a perfect system, by many measures...but it's better than the current system, which doesn't make any sense at all.
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#25 DocBauer

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 08:11 PM

Here is is game log - http://www.espn.com/...72/ryan-pressly he has been very good for August and September. The problem is that very high percentage of his inherited runners score - http://www.foxsports...0&splitType=128 and I cannot break that down by month, but 41% is too much.


I don't think a closer and save numbers should just be dismissed despite a recent trend to do so and focus more on "high leverage" situations. After all, it's still an important function of a complete bullpen. But it does seem to me certain guys, for whatever the reason, do better with inherited runners than others. (I can pretty much guarantee you that ALL RP would prefer to start an inning or come in with no-one on base). When you watch Kintzler take over the role as he did, or the way Belisle has slid in to the role post Kintzler trade, (SSS I know), I have to wonder about Pressly maybe assuming that role next season.
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"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

--Lou Brown


#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 September 2017 - 09:13 AM

 

I've got a crazy theory that inherited runners, if they score, should count towards the former and latter pitcher, on a proportional basis.

So if Presley relieves Colón with men on second and third, and both score, for the runner on second, I would give Colón 0.5 runs towards his ERA, and Presley 0.5 towards his. For the runner on third, I would give 0.75 to Colón and 0.25 to Presley.

It's not a perfect system, by many measures...but it's better than the current system, which doesn't make any sense at all.

 

there are stats that do this already, w/o trying to parse out the earned runs....

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#27 jimmer

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Posted 08 September 2017 - 09:19 AM

 

there are stats that do this already, w/o trying to parse out the earned runs....

and if you don't care about ERA...


#28 yarnivek1972

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Posted 08 September 2017 - 02:28 PM

 

I don't think a closer and save numbers should just be dismissed despite a recent trend to do so and focus more on "high leverage" situations. After all, it's still an important function of a complete bullpen. But it does seem to me certain guys, for whatever the reason, do better with inherited runners than others. (I can pretty much guarantee you that ALL RP would prefer to start an inning or come in with no-one on base). When you watch Kintzler take over the role as he did, or the way Belisle has slid in to the role post Kintzler trade, (SSS I know), I have to wonder about Pressly maybe assuming that role next season.

 

 

Typically, guys that do well with runners on have a tendency to induce swings and misses.  That's to some degree Pressly (moreso than say Rogers or Belisle certainly).  But it hasn't worked out that way. Largely a command issue IMO.  He just isn't hitting his spots like he should be.  Some guys never do.

 

Sure, a guy like Kintzler who has a tendency to induce ground balls can succeed coming in with runners on and induce a GDP.  But, what if there are runners on second and third with no one out?  Ground ball probably scores a run.  If it sneaks through a drawn in infield, it probably scores two.


#29 DocBauer

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Posted 08 September 2017 - 07:11 PM

Agreed Pressly and his SO stuff should play up in a setup role. And hopefully he can iron out those bouts of inconsistent control. Simply conjecturing that in a closer role like Kintzler was used, now Besisle, coming in to startbthe 9th might mitigate those lapses and make him an effective "finisher" if you will.

Boy, his arm sure plays up though, doesn't it.

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

--Lou Brown




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