Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Whiff Of Success: Gibson Making Bats Miss

kyle gibson
  • Please log in to reply
124 replies to this topic

#41 kab21

kab21

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,848 posts
  • LocationTaiwan

Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:31 AM

 

I didn't really focus that much on results, and that was intentional. What I'm looking at here is the underlying trends, and what it might mean about Gibson's efforts to get right physically and fine-tune his revamped approach. It's not about the results, it's about his execution, his big increase in whiff rate, his velocity (highest since he was a rookie). 

 

To say, "Gibson hasn't been good over the past two seasons so he's a bad pitcher" is an oversimplification for the reasons laid out.

 

Anyway, at no point did I say that he's locked up a job for next year. Only that he's setting himself up well to do so in September.

His increase in whiff rate is result based and still very much SSS. Even the swstr% is SSS. He started the season with 3 out of 4 games with similar rates. He had 4 straight games >10% in late May/early June. 

His velocity has held steady between 91 and 92.1 during all 5 of his MLB seasons. I wouldn't put much hope in that improvement.

And if you aren't basing this on results then is it just hoping?

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#42 markos

markos

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,220 posts

Posted 31 August 2017 - 12:09 PM

 

His increase in whiff rate is result based and still very much SSS. Even the swstr% is SSS. He started the season with 3 out of 4 games with similar rates. He had 4 straight games >10% in late May/early June. 

His velocity has held steady between 91 and 92.1 during all 5 of his MLB seasons. I wouldn't put much hope in that improvement.

And if you aren't basing this on results then is it just hoping?

There is some evidence that he has increased his sinker velocity since he came back in May. Per BrooksBaseball, it appears that he is back to his 2015 velocity:

 

4/15 92.39
5/15 92.42
6/15 92.62
7/15 92.77
8/15 92.28
9/15 91.31

-------
4/16 91.68
6/16 91.44
7/16 91.62
8/16 91.70
9/16 91.00

--------
4/17 91.58
5/17 92.51
6/17 92.18
7/17 92.65
8/17 92.22

  • Nick Nelson, glunn and Original Whizzinator like this

#43 goulik

goulik

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,536 posts

Posted 31 August 2017 - 12:43 PM

Here is my Gibson take:

I've never been a Gibson guy and I really hoped the Twins would trade him to Colorado several years ago when that was a rumor. I did not ever think he was a front line or mid rotation starter. I have hoped to be proven wrong about this for years and I will always root for him to succeed as long as he is on our team. I have greatly enjoyed his recent success and I too hope it is a sign that he has finally gotten over that hump but I am not going to bet on it. It is still just a hope because he has too much history to deserve more than that.

 

Gibson has the natural ability to succeed, but he has not shown me the mental fortitude or the confidence in his stuff that he needs. Even recently, I still see him at times trying to nit pick. If he can learn (which is possible) to be confident, aggressive and resilient as he ages, he could develop into a solid 3 in a rotation. I still hope he does! Frankly we lack depth so I have no problem letting him come back next year and fight for a spot in the rotation but he needs to EARN that spot with the mental side of the game.

  • Nick Nelson, glunn, beckmt and 2 others like this

#44 jimbo92107

jimbo92107

    Señor Member

  • Members
  • 3,724 posts
  • LocationSan Diego

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:53 PM

As I have officially given up on Gibson for this season, I feel that my observations are reasonably objective. Gibson appears to be throwing a little more downhill than before. More of his pitches appear to be ending up in the bottom half of the zone. His breaking pitches appear to be more accurate and consistent, possibly with more spin. Seems like a lot more swings are whiffing, where in the first half they were fouling balls off. Whatever, I'll take it. Keep doing what you're doing, Mr. Gibson.

  • glunn, Circus Boy and DocBauer like this

Baseball is easy. Just watch!


#45 Circus Boy

Circus Boy

    Grain Belt: "The Friendly Beer"

  • Members
  • 1,390 posts
  • LocationHuron, SD

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:59 PM

 

This will make some people scoff, but the entire pitching staff is better since Colon arrived.

Actually, the whole staff's been better since Belisle became the closer. (ducks)

  • glunn likes this

"Not my circus, not my monkeys." -- Polish saying


#46 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 3,026 posts

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:22 PM

 

Yes, it is possible. It is also possible your refrain is getting old. Nick brings up some interesting points in the article worth noting.

Gibson pitched a 3.90 ERA in 5 August starts. Getting 12.5% swinging strikes is a big deal - and it has helped him get out of some innings that he has otherwise been unable to escape.

If he really redid his motion, that is a big deal, and it makes sense that it would take a long time to solidify. Gibson also confirmed that he moved to a different spot on the rubber, giving himself a better angle.

Gibson has certainly been teetering for awhile. But maybe he isn't quite ready to get off the merry-go-round yet.

 

 

The refrain is old because it is an old problem.  Gibson hasn't resembled a competent MLB pitcher for any extended period since July 2015 (ERA well north of 5 in that stretch).  Two good starts against two of the worst offenses in the AL doesn't change that IMO.  btw, his next two starts are against the Royals.  They currently are ranked 13th in the AL in OPS and runs scored. After that, he would likely face the Padres, the WORST run scoring team in MLB and second worst in terms of OPS.  So, the odds would seem to favor him having continued success.  Let's maybe see if Gibson can perform against the Yankees, Tigers and Indians before mentioning him in the same breath as Strasburg and Grienke.

 

With regards to Nick's comment that he "didn't focus that much on results", I guess that is your perrogative.  But MLB is a results oriented business.  One either performs, or one doesn't play.  Especially a guy with a non-guaranteed contract, like Gibson.


#47 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Haighters gonna Haight

  • Twins Mods
  • 17,880 posts
  • LocationLake Tahoe, Nevada

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:30 PM

This will make some people scoff

Not at this website, we don't.

 

scoff.jpg

  • glunn likes this

Me: *opens yogurt* ... Yogurt: "We've updated our privacy policy"


#48 h2oface

h2oface

    Lifelong since '61

  • Members
  • 3,035 posts
  • LocationTralfamadore

Posted 31 August 2017 - 06:19 PM

It is amazing how many good teams, and great pitchers, can loose to bad teams. Including these Twins (if they qualify). I remember the recent 5 game series at Chicago. A team will always need victories against poor teams. A win is a win is a win. Until the playoffs. I can't negate a good performance because it may come against bad teams and offenses. I can't and won't. It's also amazing how many great offenses can perform horribly against a great pitcher having a great day. Or if you are the Twins' offense, it seems, it can even happen against a bad pitcher having a great day. 

 

"I became a good pitcher when I stopped trying to make them miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it."  -Sandy Koufax

 

It is interesting, even in other sports, that some great players don't seem to do so well against teams with winning records.... take a look at these quarterbacks that most would have liked to have on their team.....

 

Aaron Rodgers 21-29
Drew Brees 20-48

Matt Ryan 17-22
Matthew Stafford 5-46 (new highest paid NFL player in history)

Tom Brady 50-33  (well, he is Tom Brady...)

Russell Wilson 19-12

 

Gibson changed everything about his delivery. That is a brave move. It may be gelling. I don't sell out on Polanco. I am not selling out on Gibson, yet, not with what he has done and is trying to do, for the long term. We need victories against all teams to get to the playoffs. If we get there..... we need a ton of luck, no matter who pitches.

  • Nick Nelson, glunn, AlwaysinModeration and 2 others like this

#49 adorduan

adorduan

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 465 posts

Posted 31 August 2017 - 08:30 PM

 

The refrain is old because it is an old problem.  Gibson hasn't resembled a competent MLB pitcher for any extended period since July 2015 (ERA well north of 5 in that stretch).  Two good starts against two of the worst offenses in the AL doesn't change that IMO.  btw, his next two starts are against the Royals.  They currently are ranked 13th in the AL in OPS and runs scored. After that, he would likely face the Padres, the WORST run scoring team in MLB and second worst in terms of OPS.  So, the odds would seem to favor him having continued success.  Let's maybe see if Gibson can perform against the Yankees, Tigers and Indians before mentioning him in the same breath as Strasburg and Grienke.

 

With regards to Nick's comment that he "didn't focus that much on results", I guess that is your perrogative.  But MLB is a results oriented business.  One either performs, or one doesn't play.  Especially a guy with a non-guaranteed contract, like Gibson.

Who exactly is doing that? I must have missed it.


#50 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 3,026 posts

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:19 AM

Who exactly is doing that? I must have missed it.


Apparently you did because it is in the initial post.

#51 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,022 posts

Posted 03 September 2017 - 03:16 AM

It is amazing how many good teams, and great pitchers, can loose to bad teams. Including these Twins (if they qualify). I remember the recent 5 game series at Chicago. A team will always need victories against poor teams. A win is a win is a win. Until the playoffs. I can't negate a good performance because it may come against bad teams and offenses. I can't and won't. It's also amazing how many great offenses can perform horribly against a great pitcher having a great day. Or if you are the Twins' offense, it seems, it can even happen against a bad pitcher having a great day. 
 
"I became a good pitcher when I stopped trying to make them miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it."  -Sandy Koufax
 
It is interesting, even in other sports, that some great players don't seem to do so well against teams with winning records.... take a look at these quarterbacks that most would have liked to have on their team.....
 
Aaron Rodgers 21-29
Drew Brees 20-48
Matt Ryan 17-22
Matthew Stafford 5-46 (new highest paid NFL player in history)
Tom Brady 50-33  (well, he is Tom Brady...)
Russell Wilson 19-12
 
Gibson changed everything about his delivery. That is a brave move. It may be gelling. I don't sell out on Polanco. I am not selling out on Gibson, yet, not with what he has done and is trying to do, for the long term. We need victories against all teams to get to the playoffs. If we get there..... we need a ton of luck, no matter who pitches.


Brilliant! And I mean it. Everyone, go back and read this Again!

I mean, a lot of the beauty of sports is perspective. Use the analogy above and think about HOF QB Tarkenton. He "lost" 3 Super Bowls. But he absolutely re-wrote the passing records in a generation of a 14 game season predicated on the running game and stout defenses that could practically mug receivers. But Favre broke all of his records in a 16 game season format in a pass happy league, with MAJOR changes in pass interference and contact/holding rules with the most PA attempts in the history of the league.

Perception. Perception.

But back to the topic, who the hell IS Gibson? From day 1 we thought we got a steal! He practically skyrocketed through the minors, and our imaginations, as to who he might become. And there were demands he come up early, after to TJ and recovery. And surprise, surprise, he stunk when he did. (Stunk? Stank? Whatever). Then, he looked pretty good. Then he looked even better! And we dared to be tantalized with hope! And then he stunk/stanked again!

A few of us dared to believe and told everyone else to do the same. We said, this guy has the makings of a solid, quality SP yet. Others, outside of TD said the same thing. He worked hard to get healthy after 2016, change his conditioning, his approach, his delivery, and be teased us in ST. And then the season began and he stunk. He was sent to the minors and probably brought back too soon.

But something began to happen. He had a bad game against Seattle where he had a lead and continued to pitch poorly. Molitor went to the mound and publicly, though "nicely" chewed his butt. He didn't pitch great, but he pitched better. He followed it up shortly after with his best performance of the year to date before being sent down again to create roster flexibility.

Once back again, he threw way, way too many pitches, and left after 4 or so innings, but with low scores and his team in the game. He even got his fair share of SO. And then suddenly, he still got the SO, but was pitching 6-7 innings. And we are baffled. Who is this Gibson guy?

I'm still not sure why he was pulled tonight, Saturday, after 6 blank innings thrown and only 81 pitches thrown. But he is on a roll. And I have to confess to you as a past Gibson apologist, who was ready to DFA him a few weeks ago, I'm suddenly scared to let him walk. Is it really possible that a change in mechanics, a move to the other side of the rubber, experience, even a public ass chewing by Molitor, has lead him to a "bloom" point in his career?
  • glunn likes this

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

--Lou Brown


#52 Major Leauge Ready

Major Leauge Ready

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,310 posts

Posted 03 September 2017 - 05:21 AM

 

I'm still not sure why he was pulled tonight, Saturday, after 6 blank innings thrown and only 81 pitches thrown. But he is on a roll. And I have to confess to you as a past Gibson apologist, who was ready to DFA him a few weeks ago, I'm suddenly scared to let him walk. Is it really possible that a change in mechanics, a move to the other side of the rubber, experience, even a public ass chewing by Molitor, has lead him to a "bloom" point in his career?

 

To give some innings to the guys that were called up. The six innings were plenty in terms of continuing to reinforce the changes he has made in a game situation..At 17-0, why not save his arm for the playoff run.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 03 September 2017 - 05:22 AM.

  • glunn and h2oface like this

#53 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 19,752 posts

Posted 03 September 2017 - 05:27 AM

 

To give some innings to the guys that were called up. The six innings were plenty in terms of continuing to reinforce the changes he has made in a game situation..At 17-0, why not save his arm for the playoff run.

Yeah, there was really no reason to keep him out there with an expanded roster. Kyle threw a good game, let the bullpen finish it out.

  • glunn and h2oface like this

#54 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,783 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 03 September 2017 - 05:43 AM

Now seems more likely than not he's back next year, right?
Papers...business papers.

#55 Carole Keller

Carole Keller

    BE BOLD

  • Twins Mods
  • 19,914 posts

Posted 03 September 2017 - 05:52 AM

Now seems more likely than not he's back next year, right?

I'm excited about thinking of the possibility that Gibson has really turned a corner. I was hopeful after seeing him in ST this year. I mean, if this is who he has become for real, who needs a trade?

But ...

I think I'll wait to see what he does through the end of the season. But I'll be keeping my fingers crossed. Tonight's game was one to put us all in a good mood.
“May we teach our children that speaking out without the fear of retribution is our culture’s new north star.” ~Laura Dern
Nevertheless, she persisted. Time’s up.

#56 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,783 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 03 September 2017 - 06:02 AM

I'm excited about thinking of the possibility that Gibson has really turned a corner. I was hopeful after seeing him in ST this year. I mean, if this is who he has become for real, who needs a trade?

But ...

I think I'll wait to see what he does through the end of the season. But I'll be keeping my fingers crossed. Tonight's game was one to put us all in a good mood.


I agree that it's not a done deal. Just offering a status check.
Papers...business papers.

#57 Darius

Darius

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,161 posts

Posted 03 September 2017 - 07:08 AM

Gibson is not getting nearly enough credit for how he's the turned things around this year. He said been pretty good for a while now.

It was like Buxton's BA. It was so bad to begin with that it's hard to make the numbers look good again. Looking at the overall numbers for them gives you the impression that they've been bad to mediocre all year. In reality, Gibson and Buxton are two of the key guys who drug this team back from the dead. The guy should be praised right now, not reviled.

Edited by Darius, 03 September 2017 - 07:43 AM.

  • Craig Arko and h2oface like this

#58 Linus

Linus

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,940 posts

Posted 03 September 2017 - 08:01 AM

I would be curious to know if the mechanical changes he made in the spring are still being used. He looks the same to me although he has been healthy all year. Seems like he is just throwing more strikes.

#59 Jham

Jham

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 1,529 posts

Posted 03 September 2017 - 08:59 AM

Control is streaky. Feel comes and goes. Gee is dealing with that right now. This is why i was skeptical of duffey's initial success throwing half curves. Gibson's fastball runs so much he has to have good feel to locate it. And his slider alternately bounces, sails, and rolls off the table top. He is what he is. Frustratingly inconsistent. But streaky and sneaky good.

I would expect his feel to improve with experience and better emotional control. But I suspect his stuff will begin declining in the next few years too.

#60 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,298 posts

Posted 03 September 2017 - 12:42 PM

I admit, I've been very down on Gibson for a couple years now, even after 2015 when others we're convinced he'd turned a corner then.
But, if he is the rare guy that finds something new at age 30, then obviously that's great for all involved.
And, I'll be happy to eat crow if he has figured it out.
  • Twins33 and jimmer like this



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: kyle gibson