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Article: Whiff Of Success: Gibson Making Bats Miss

kyle gibson
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#21 Vanimal46

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 08:50 AM

 

But honestly, we should feel that way about 60% of the rotation.

 

Yeah... that's fair to say. Bartolo has grown on me where he'd be #3 on my confidence list. Mejia (when he returns) and Gibson are pretty much 4A and 4B.  

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#22 old nurse

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:05 AM

 

But honestly, we should feel that way about 60% of the rotation.

80%You need tofeel like your starter gives you a chance to win against the best teams in the playoffs


#23 Mike Frasier Law

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:06 AM

Second half statistics:

 

Pitcher   IP   k/9   bb/9  hr/9  GB% ERA   xFIP WAR

Berrios   47    8.81  3.06  .77    34.6  4.21  4.46  1.1

Gibson   41    8.56   3.07  .66   54.9  4.17  3.62   1.0

Santana 55.2  8.89 2.75   1.46 36.8  3.88  4.58   0.8

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#24 kab21

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:11 AM

I am sorry but this article is way over optimistic about Gibson due to his success against two thoroughly mediocre teams. Also included in his 'great' month is a 3.90 ERA and 2 games where he didn't make it through the 5th inning.

I need to see a little (I mean A LOT) more before he is even an option for next year. That bridge has been burned for me to be honest. The Twins need starting rotation arms of any kind to finish the season and somehow stay in the playoff hunt but they should be completely prepared to find better options than a starter finishing his 4th full season with a very high 4's ERA that is trending higher.

Taking a split from the all star break is just a little too convenient for me. He just happened to throw one of his worst games of the season immediately before the AS break.

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Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:21 AM

 

80%You need tofeel like your starter gives you a chance to win against the best teams in the playoffs

Both Santana and Berrios qualify under those circumstances.

 

Will either of them beat Kershaw? No, probably not, but that's an unreasonable standard to hold a human being.

 

But both of them can give you a 3 ER, 6 IP game against the best teams.

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#26 markos

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:27 AM

I've brought this up on other threads, but it is probably worth bringing up again here: Since the end of May, Gibson has been perfectly fine as a #5 starter. Starting since his May 28 start against the Rays, he has:

4.55 ERA - AL average is 4.56
4.55 FIP - AL average is 4.58
53.1% GB rate

 

He has had very solid starts against TOR, CHW, DET, LAA (twice), SEA. He has had decent starts against CLE, TEX, HOU. Over the past 3 months, he has only had three starts where he has given up more than 3 runs. Yes, he is still giving up more contact than one would like. Yes, he is walking too many batters. And yes, he has definitely benefited by having a short lease. But overall, this level of performance is pretty good for the back of the rotation, even for a contending team. He has performed similarly to guys like Josh Tomlin, Tanner Roark, John Lackey and Jaime Garcia, not to mention just about anyone of the staffs of LAA, BAL, SEA and COL.

 

Also, I think it is a no-brainer to bring him back next year. He is going to get a modest raise in arbitration, but he still is only going to get something like $5-6M, which is perfectly fine for back-end starter on a 1-year-deal.

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#27 dbminn

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:39 AM

I hope Gibson is pain-free and has regained his rhythm. If he can give the Twins 2-3R in 6IP each time out the rest of this year, I'll be happy. It might be the difference between a WC game and an early offseason. 

 

Gibson's put in the work and the talent is there. He was solid in 2014, his first full season. Then, as Nick points out, he was very good in 2015 (3.84 ERA/ 3.96 FIP, 194.2 IP). If he doesn't perform now, he'll move on. Just don't be surprised if the 2015 Gibson reappears after he's gone. 

 

 

 

 

 

 


#28 Mike Sixel

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:44 AM

 

I hope Gibson is pain-free and has regained his rhythm. If he can give the Twins 2-3R in 6IP each time out the rest of this year, I'll be happy. It might be the difference between a WC game and an early offseason. 

 

Gibson's put in the work and the talent is there. He was solid in 2014, his first full season. Then, as Nick points out, he was very good in 2015 (3.84 ERA/ 3.96 FIP, 194.2 IP). If he doesn't perform now, he'll move on. Just don't be surprised if the 2015 Gibson reappears after he's gone. 

 

I wouldn't be shocked either way. I've been a huge supporter, until this year. I have serious doubts, but it's all about numbers (salary and other SP options) at this point. If he's mediocre to good the rest of the way, he's back no doubt, imo. If he reverts to what he's been more often than not, I don't know what they'll do.

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There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#29 dbminn

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 10:00 AM

 

I wouldn't be shocked either way. I've been a huge supporter, until this year. I have serious doubts, but it's all about numbers (salary and other SP options) at this point. If he's mediocre to good the rest of the way, he's back no doubt, imo. If he reverts to what he's been more often than not, I don't know what they'll do.

 

I agree. I understand letting him go if he doesn't perform the rest of 2017. I just think pain and a restructuring of mechanics are the reasons he's been lousy. If Gibson is healthy, I'll take the "under" for a 4.25 ERA next season. Just my opinion but you can hold me to it.

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#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 10:02 AM

4.25 would give him around the 35th lowest ERA in the game.....among qualifiers. That seems a bit lofty to me...

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There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#31 Nick Nelson

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 10:03 AM

 

I am sorry but this article is way over optimistic about Gibson due to his success against two thoroughly mediocre teams. Also included in his 'great' month is a 3.90 ERA and 2 games where he didn't make it through the 5th inning.

I didn't really focus that much on results, and that was intentional. What I'm looking at here is the underlying trends, and what it might mean about Gibson's efforts to get right physically and fine-tune his revamped approach. It's not about the results, it's about his execution, his big increase in whiff rate, his velocity (highest since he was a rookie). 

 

To say, "Gibson hasn't been good over the past two seasons so he's a bad pitcher" is an oversimplification for the reasons laid out.

 

Anyway, at no point did I say that he's locked up a job for next year. Only that he's setting himself up well to do so in September.

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#32 dbminn

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 10:18 AM

 

4.25 would give him around the 35th lowest ERA in the game.....among qualifiers. That seems a bit lofty to me...

 

You're probably right but it wouldn't be any fun if I predicted 4.75. Also, his combined ERA was about that for his first two full years (4.17). 

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#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 10:26 AM

 

You're probably right but it wouldn't be any fun if I predicted 4.75. Also, his combined ERA was about that for his first two full years (4.17). 

 

:)

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There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#34 Doomtints

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:02 AM

This will make some people scoff, but the entire pitching staff is better since Colon arrived.

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#35 markos

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:02 AM

 

You're probably right but it wouldn't be any fun if I predicted 4.75. Also, his combined ERA was about that for his first two full years (4.17). 

This is where the change in run environment gets kind of screwy. The league-average AL starter ERA in 2014 was 3.82; in 2015 it was 4.02. Now it 4.55. So Gibson's 4.17 from 2014-2015 isn't that different than a 4.75 today.

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#36 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:03 AM

 

This will make some people scoff, but the entire pitching staff is better since Colon arrived.

It's something I've noticed, though I'm reluctant to give Colon credit for the improvement.

 

Then again, I'm not ruling it out entirely, either.

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#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:05 AM

 

It's something I've noticed, though I'm reluctant to give Colon credit for the improvement.

 

Then again, I'm not ruling it out entirely, either.

 

agreed, sometimes things are coincidence, and sometimes they aren't. But this is likely THE most common fallacy, I'd think....

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#38 old nurse

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:08 AM

 

Both Santana and Berrios qualify under those circumstances.

 

Will either of them beat Kershaw? No, probably not, but that's an unreasonable standard to hold a human being.

 

But both of them can give you a 3 ER, 6 IP game against the best teams.

3 ER in 6 gives you a chance when your hitters come through. That was the problem with the Twins' playoff teams. The starters could get you that level. Your 3-4 starters need to give you that level also. That ability is really hit and miss right now, with the "hit" rate is below the Mendoza line. Santana could beat the Yankees. Before he could pitch again the playoffs might be over.Hitting seems to be carrying the team right now.That might not fare so well against a Houston team that appears to have pitchers with good seasons.


#39 dbminn

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:13 AM

 

This is where the change in run environment gets kind of screwy. The league-average AL starter ERA in 2014 was 3.82; in 2015 it was 4.02. Now it 4.55. So Gibson's 4.17 from 2014-2015 isn't that different than a 4.75 today.

 

All true. Still, I made a prediction and now I have to live with it!

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#40 MN_ExPat

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:14 AM

 

Can we stop framing this as if people are actively rooting for him to fail? I haven't seen anyone hoping for that and it's rudely misrepresentative. I'm sure everyone here would be ecstatic if he leveled off to a reliable #4/#5 starter.

 

What I have seen is a lot of people that have lost trust in him and won't be quick to believe he's not the same Gibson that occassionally puts a couple games together against bad teams only to go off the rails again. He doesn't have any equity built up right now and needs to continue to perform over a longer timespan and against better lineups before he'll start to earn it back.

 

Well, clearly I'm a much better writer in my head than I actually am on paper and my thoughts don't often translate well.  

 

You are correct Sir. I fully agree that the vast majority of Twins fans, and just about everyone here, truly wants to see him succeed.   As you and others have stated, it probably is mostly frustration at his lack of ability to "get right in the head" and translate all that God given ability into consistent production on the field.  

 

Like others, I've been a huge Gibson fan since the day they drafted him (probably too much so, but a fan nonetheless). Given that the next wave of pitching talent may not be quite "there" yet, there stands a good chance he comes back for one more year, if the current run extends through the end of the year.

 

But like you and others have said, as much as it pains me to say, we do need to see a larger body of work for my hopes and faith to be fully restored.

Edited by MN_ExPat, 31 August 2017 - 11:15 AM.




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