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Twins 2018 payroll

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#21 Bill Brown69

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 10:52 AM

I have so much to say on this that it would be its own topic BUT Here is what I have said before. "I DON'T CARE IF THE 2015-6-7 PAYROLL WAS UNDER IF THEY USE THOSE SAVINGS TO LOCK UP SOME OF THIS CORE FOR 10 YEARS" I do not make Falvey/Levine money but I have created 5 businesses out of thin air. Identify the right guys to sign long term and do it! Is this Rosario the real one? Can Kepler keep moving forward. Can Sano keep his weight under control? Can Buxton not kill himself the way he plays? Can Polanco stick at short? Is Berrios the next coming of Pedro Martinez? 

 

Everybody has question marks, but the front office is paid to identify the right guys and put them on the field and keep them here for the fan base. I for 1 am sick and tired of having to project every one of our prospects to flourish and have a career year at the same time to even sniff at being competitive. Give me some guys I know will be here and I can go buy their jersey and enjoy following for a number of years!!!!!!!!!!!!!


#22 yarnivek1972

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 10:55 AM

It takes more than one season for attendance numbers to jump up but the point is that the Pohlad's have spent money (compared to the MLB) before.


They should have solid "walk up" sales the rest of the way. Believe it or not, there are only 15 home dates remaining. As I stated previously, they are already slightly ahead of 2016 attendance. They certainly didn't generate walk up sales last year. They should top 30,000 for the remaining weekend games. The Royals games usually draw well. As do the Blue Jays. If the Twins are still in contention, they could sell out the final weekend against the Tigers.

#23 wsnydes

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 10:55 AM

 

Attendance per game is up slightly this year (about 650 per game).  It figures to jump more down the stretch with the Twins in contention when they were all but eliminated by this time last season.

I'd be curious to know the actual attendance versus tickets sold.  Having been to about 20 games this season, the announced attendance is generally around 25k but there is more likely only about 15k actually there.  That plays into this as well with reduced concession stand revenue.  I've been to a couple of games where they've only opened about half of the concession stands on the main concourse and probably a lesser percentage of the mobile cart stands.  Recent attendance has been better however but still below what the announced attendance is.

 

Ticket prices have remained fairly constant through the losing years, but the concession prices have gone up by maybe 25% if I were to guess.

Edited by wsnydes, 22 August 2017 - 10:57 AM.

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#24 yarnivek1972

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 11:09 AM

I'd be curious to know the actual attendance versus tickets sold. Having been to about 20 games this season, the announced attendance is generally around 25k but there is more likely only about 15k actually there. That plays into this as well with reduced concession stand revenue. I've been to a couple of games where they've only opened about half of the concession stands on the main concourse and probably a lesser percentage of the mobile cart stands. Recent attendance has been better however but still below what the announced attendance is.

Ticket prices have remained fairly constant through the losing years, but the concession prices have gone up by maybe 25% if I were to guess.


I'm sure actual attendance was even lower in 2016.

#25 wsnydes

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 11:12 AM

 

I'm sure actual attendance was even lower in 2016.

I'm sure it was.  Figures were inflated last year as well, it's common practice.  I was merely commenting on the impact of revenue sources other than ticket sales.

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#26 cmoss84

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:03 PM

I really hope they start extending our young players soon. I'm a big fan of what John Hart did with Manny, Loften, Baerga, etc. Start dishing out 6-8 year contracts for 20-40 million. I think we have seen Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Berrios enough to have faith in them. 

 

Have to keep Escobar for $4million. He can do too many things not to. 

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#27 Vanimal46

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:30 PM

 

I have so much to say on this that it would be its own topic BUT Here is what I have said before. "I DON'T CARE IF THE 2015-6-7 PAYROLL WAS UNDER IF THEY USE THOSE SAVINGS TO LOCK UP SOME OF THIS CORE FOR 10 YEARS"

 

No MLB team uses this model to track financials year over year. They operate under a new budget every season. The potential "savings" goes into the owner's pockets and doesn't roll over to next season. 

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#28 Bill Brown69

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:41 PM

 

No MLB team uses this model to track financials year over year. They operate under a new budget every season. The potential "savings" goes into the owner's pockets and doesn't roll over to next season. 

 

My statement was more from the average fan perspective. They had better use those savings to lock up some of this core or else there will be a @*%&load of fans walk away from this team. I listed 6 guys who look like they could become solid players if not All-Stars. If all 6 walk at the first year of free agency or are traded before because "we can't afford them" then kiss me goodbye as a fan of this team, and a lot of others just like me.


#29 yarnivek1972

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:49 PM

My statement was more from the average fan perspective. They had better use those savings to lock up some of this core or else there will be a @*%&load of fans walk away from this team. I listed 6 guys who look like they could become solid players if not All-Stars. If all 6 walk at the first year of free agency or are traded before because "we can't afford them" then kiss me goodbye as a fan of this team, and a lot of others just like me.


A lot of "average fans" have been saying that for 40 years. And they still draw over 2,000,000 per year. With a team that has lost 95 games plus in 4 of the previous 6 seasons. In a metro area of fewer than 3,000,000.

If there is one thing pro sports fans in Minnesota have shown it is that they will come back.

#30 zenser

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:50 PM

Man, the offseason between 2021 and 2022 will be huge.Sano,Buxton, Rosario, and Duffey all hitting free agency.I hope they are locked up before then!

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#31 Bill Brown69

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:57 PM

 

Man, the offseason between 2021 and 2022 will be huge.Sano,Buxton, Rosario, and Duffey all hitting free agency.I hope they are locked up before then!

 

Not sure if I would put Duffey as important as the others. Sano might well be the unaffordable contract. He has publicly stated his goal is to be the first 500 mil contract in baseball history. 

 

Lock up 3 position players long term, 1 per year for 3 years and evaluate pitching as they develop and lock up 2 pitchers for a long deal and we have a reason to pull for "OUR" guys for several years.


#32 Bill Brown69

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:59 PM

 

A lot of "average fans" have been saying that for 40 years. And they still draw over 2,000,000 per year. With a team that has lost 95 games plus in 4 of the previous 6 seasons. In a metro area of fewer than 3,000,000.

If there is one thing pro sports fans in Minnesota have shown it is that they will come back.

 

From the day Hrbek retired until the day the contraction was announced I did not watch or listen to a single game. I could not stand the misery of knowing that the only baseball would be bad baseball.


#33 laloesch

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:05 PM

 

Not sure if I would put Duffey as important as the others. Sano might well be the unaffordable contract. He has publicly stated his goal is to be the first 500 mil contract in baseball history. 

 

Lock up 3 position players long term, 1 per year for 3 years and evaluate pitching as they develop and lock up 2 pitchers for a long deal and we have a reason to pull for "OUR" guys for several years.

 

Yes and if he makes such a demand when the time comes you trade him and move on.  Simple as that.  

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#34 amjgt

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:28 PM

Thanks. I forgot to mention that if Hughes doesn't pitch next year, insurance will pick up some of his salary - I think up to half, but I'm not sure - so there would some salary relief in that instance.


Wasn't it reported after his recent "successful" surgery (aren't they all called that) that he would be ready to go for Spring Training?

Which doesn't mean he'll be effective, but that would likely nix the insurance
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#35 SwainZag

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:31 PM

 

Not sure if I would put Duffey as important as the others. Sano might well be the unaffordable contract. He has publicly stated his goal is to be the first 500 mil contract in baseball history. 

 

Lock up 3 position players long term, 1 per year for 3 years and evaluate pitching as they develop and lock up 2 pitchers for a long deal and we have a reason to pull for "OUR" guys for several years.

 

Do you have a link or any reference to Sano saying that?  There's a lot out there to people speculating that Harper will become baseball's 1st $400 million dollar player, but I can't seem to remember or find anything relating to Sano.


#36 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:32 PM

Not sure if I would put Duffey as important as the others. Sano might well be the unaffordable contract. He has publicly stated his goal is to be the first 500 mil contract in baseball history.

Lock up 3 position players long term, 1 per year for 3 years and evaluate pitching as they develop and lock up 2 pitchers for a long deal and we have a reason to pull for "OUR" guys for several years.


If Sano has publically stated that, then there should be a record of it somewhere.
Could you link to it, or tell me where it can be seen?

I've heard this claimed before, but even my best google skills haven't been able to uncover even a third hand account of that statement, let alone first hand.
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#37 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:42 PM

Signing Escobar should be a sure thing.

Adrianza is not the hitter Esco is and Eduardo is a fine fielder at several positions.

I'm throwing in with the 'sign him' crowd.

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#38 yarnivek1972

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:55 PM

Signing Escobar should be a sure thing.
Adrianza is not the hitter Esco is and Eduardo is a fine fielder at several positions.
I'm throwing in with the 'sign him' crowd.

Escobar is a poor fielder at several positions. He has a negative UZR everywhere he has played for his career except shortstop, where it is 0.2, which is still not good.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 22 August 2017 - 01:58 PM.


#39 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 02:02 PM

Yeah, if Escobar was a "fine fielder", he'd be starting somewhere.

#40 Supfin99

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 02:32 PM

I could care less how much the payroll is.  150 Mil payroll guarantees us nothing except some fans will complain it still isn't enough.  Where do you want to sign some one?  Would everyone be happy if we signed an OF?  This way we can take a lineup spot away from 3 young and improving players?  Should we sign a SS to clog the development of Polanco or Gordon?  Even if you want to sign a pitcher, who's spot does he take and who do we sign?  over the next calendar year Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Stewart, Slegers and Thorpe will all likely make their debut.  Sleigers and Jorge already have.  We have Santana and Berrios already in the rotation for next year.  Plus we need to keep a spot for Mejia who showed enough this year to deserve another chance next year.  Lastly you have May coming back from TJ surgery.  At the beginning of the year Santana and Berrios are written in ink.  I would put Mejia with dark pencil.  That leaves 2 spots available for May, Slegers Gonsalves and Romero.  I really think that both Romero and Gonzalvez are going to be given legitimate shots to win spots next year.  Even if you could go out and sign the best FA pitcher available, Yu Darvish, should you?  This isn't about being cheap.  Do these contracts ever work out?  Do you want to sign a soon to be 32 yr old pitcher to an 8 year 240 mil dollar contract?  I really don't want to.  I'd rather follow the Cubs model.  Get most of your pieces in place thru home grown talent and then sign the strategic FA (Lester) when you are ready.  That time is the winter of 2018 or 2019.  I'd much rather see if Gonsalves, Romero and Berrios can all become legitimate number 2 or 3 starters.  Can Slegers or Mejia develop into league average starters?  I don't know but I want to find out.

 

I want to do the same with the bullpen.  The last thing I want to see is a bunch of payroll used up to bring in a couple of above average over priced volatile relievers.  We now have 4 pieces that I feel pretty comfortable with in Rogers, Duffy, Pressley and Hildenberger.  Business might be on his way to locking down another spot.  At most there are really only 2 spots left next year for high leverage relievers.  I thought for sure at the beginning of this year that those 2 spots in 2018 would be filled by Nick Burdi and Tyler Jay.  Due to injuries they are both highly unlikely to win spots next year.  But new guys have rose up to take their place.  I can't wait to see what John Curtis does when he is called up in Sept.  Also if Gabriel Moya stuff will translate to the majors.  We have plenty options in the pen without signing more relievers.  

 

Souhan wrote an article a month ago that talked about that if the Twins make the playoffs or not will have next to nothing to do with what happened at the trading deadline.  If they made it was due to their young players improving and their veterans playing like stars.  This resurgence towards a playoff spot is due to exactly that.  The young guys like Buck, Rosario, Jorge and Max are playing like allstars.  The veterans like Dozier and Mauer are hitting a ton.  That is why we are leading the wild card right now and it wouldn't matter if Garcia was our 5th starter or Kindler was our closer.

 

The same can be said for the Twins chances of winning a world series or 2 over the next 5 years.  For this to happen Sano and Buxton need to be annual MVP contenders like their MILB careers suggested.  Rosario, Kepler, Gordon and Polanco need to be above average starters to borderline all stars.  Berries needs to be the real deal and at least a number 2 caliber starter.  At least one of Romero and Gonsalves needs to become a 2/3 starter.  Preferably Romero becomes a 2 and Gonsalves becomes a 3.  We need one or 2 more from the May, Slegers, Thorpe, Stewart, Jorge group to become league average or better starters.  We need to find dominant closer and 2 wipe out setup men out of Rogers, Hildenberger, Curtis, Burdi, Jay, Anderson, Clay.  This may seem like wishing for a lot of things to go right but a lot of this already happening.  Buck and Sano have shown month long plus of MVP stretches.  Rosario, Max and Polanco have all shown stretches of good to great play.  Berries has looked like a potential ace at times.  Rogers and Hildenberger already appear to be lockdown bullpen pieces.  The other young guys have all dominated in the minors and have the talent and stuff to do so in the majors.  Once you get a majority of these things to happen you then supplement the items you missed on with free agents.

 

In Nov 2018 you might have a shot at a Manny Machado or a Dallas Keuchel to be the final piece of a world series contender.  In 2018 the only veteran contacts we will have is the final year owed to Hughes and Castro totaling 21 mil.