Purchasing a similar level talent will require somewhere around triple the money. This ownership group simply isn't going to do that. You've argued at length yourself that it simply isn't going to happen.
I also would much rather spend that kind of money on 2-3 years than 6-7. Plus, the point is, Verlander hasn't declined a lot, and there's no reason to expect him to in the next couple years.
His war is 1/2 what it was last year in his age 33 season.To suggest there is no reason to expect he will continue to decline ignores one of the most consistently proven results in baseball.Aging pitchers, especially power pitchers decline, generally starting in the early 30s. You are also ignoring that we are talking about his age 35 & 36 seasons.
It might take 168M to get a SP that produces at the level he is at this year but I doubt it will cost quite that much.It won't take nearly that much to get what he will produce if he declines at the expected rate with the expected rate defined as the normal degradation rate of all starting pitchers.Obviously he could defy the odds but good business decisions do not defy the odds.
It's also at bit misguided to say it costs 3 times as much even if the spend 3 times as much when you are comparing a 2-year contract to a 6 year contract.AAV is a more accurate representation although the 6 year contract does have more risk.
If Verlander's decline is "normal", he is probably worth 4-5 war over the next 2 years.Obviously, the prospects we trade could end up to be busts but I would bet they will yield considerably greater WAR over their 6 years of control.
Some fans fall in love with the idea of these big name guys hoping they defy the odds and remain great well past their prime.It does happen but the odds are he is no better than average over the next couple years.
Mid market teams don't get the absolute top FA SPs.It will always be very rare.However, next year has a rather good supply of FA SPs.We will also be in a good position the following year when Mauer, Santana, and Perkins come off the books.We will also be a year away from Hughes coming off if they have not already bought him out.That will be an enormous year for free agents.In other words, supply will be at an extreme high which will help make it feasible for us to land a top FA SP.The big markets teams will be chasing Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, David Price, Jose Fernandez, Manny Machado, Jason Heyward, Dallas Keuchel, Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey.Mosat of the deals will be absolutely enormous.We can't compete on the $300M contracts but we should be able to get someone that projects to be at least as good as Verlander has been this year.
Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 21 August 2017 - 10:25 PM.