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Article: Bullpen Ramblings

glen perkins trevor hildenberger matt belisle taylor rogers alan busenitz
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#21 MN_ExPat

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 12:55 PM

 

Kevin Jepsen and Ricky Nolasco were very moderately priced signings. Low risk, low investment, low reward, low fan morale, low win total. lets try a new approach 

 

I mean sign a couple of high end guys who have he track record to lock down the back of the bullpen. Rely on Shaggy et al. for the front of the bullen and if they take off and take over the back of the bullpen, they are that much better off and that much deeper.

True.But at the time wasn't Nolasco the highest priced FA signed to date by the Twins?

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#22 Dantes929

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 12:58 PM

 

It seems pretty optimistic to me to think you can turn around a bottom 5 bullpen with only 1 good FA addition.
To me, that is how you set yourself to fail and then say stuff like, "... but they were counting on x,y, and z to step up, and who could have known that a,b, and c would get hurt. "

Not sure how it is any different than "lets count on x to step up and buy m and n, and who could have known that a, b, and m would get hurt".  I have no problem with buying depth and quality but the idea that it hasn't worked to rely on the minors in that past is not proof that relying on the minors in the future won't work. Feels like we have drafted hard throwing relievers the last 3 or 4 years and we are starting to see guys like Busenitz and Hildenberger come up and contribute and also seems like there are other guys ready to step up so the plan of having minor leaguers step up is a better plan now than when it failed in the past. Like I said, I am all for quality and quality depth but injuries are not respecters of how a player was acquired.  Burdi and Chargois were supposed to be our hot shots this year. It is just as likely that whatever free agent quality we get this off season go down to the same injuries..  

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#23 SwainZag

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 12:59 PM

According to MLBTradeRumors here are your pending free agent relievers(as of right now).  Just food for thought.

 

Right-Handed Relievers

Al Alburquerque (32)
John Axford (35)
Andrew Bailey (34)
Tony Barnette (34) — $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Matt Belisle (38)
Joaquin Benoit (40)
Trevor Cahill (30)
Jesse Chavez (34)
Tyler Clippard (33)
Steve Cishek (32)
Wade Davis (32)
Neftali Feliz (30)
Jeanmar Gomez (30)
Luke Gregerson (34)
Jason Grilli (41)
David Hernandez (33)
Greg Holland (32) — $15MM player option
Craig Kimbrel (30) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Brandon Kintzler (33)
Mark Lowe (35)
Dustin McGowan (36)
Jason Motte (36)
Pat Neshek (37)
Juan Nicasio (31)
Seung-hwan Oh (35)
Logan Ondrusek (33) — $1.5MM club option
Chad Qualls (39)
Addison Reed (29)
Fernando Rodney (41)
Francisco Rodriguez (36)
Sergio Romo (35)
Fernando Salas (33)
Bryan Shaw (30)
Joe Smith (34)
Craig Stammen (34)
Drew Storen (30)
Huston Street (34) — $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Anthony Swarzak (32)
Koji Uehara (43)
Carlos Villanueva (34)
Jordan Walden (30)
Tom Wilhelmsen (34)
Chris Young (39) — $8MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout

 

Left-Handed Relievers

Fernando Abad (32)
Antonio Bastardo (32)
Jerry Blevins (34) — $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Craig Breslow (37)
Brian Duensing (35)
Zach Duke (35)
Boone Logan (33) — $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jake McGee (31)
Eric O’Flaherty (33)
Oliver Perez (36)
Glen Perkins (35) — $6.5MM club option with a $700K buyout
Clayton Richard (34)
Tony Watson (32)

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#24 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 01:15 PM

Not sure how it is any different than "lets count on x to step up and buy m and n, and who could have known that a, b, and m would get hurt". I have no problem with buying depth and quality but the idea that it hasn't worked to rely on the minors in that past is not proof that relying on the minors in the future won't work. Feels like we have drafted hard throwing relievers the last 3 or 4 years and we are starting to see guys like Busenitz and Hildenberger come up and contribute and also seems like there are other guys ready to step up so the plan of having minor leaguers step up is a better plan now than when it failed in the past. Like I said, I am all for quality and quality depth but injuries are not respecters of how a player was acquired. Burdi and Chargois were supposed to be our hot shots this year. It is just as likely that whatever free agent quality we get this off season go down to the same injuries..


But if you sign FA help and they get injured, then you still have your top internal options available to step in.
If you rely on your top internal options instead, you are left scrambling when they get injured.

There is a reason that the top FA players get a lot of money.
They don't come with a guarantee, of course, but you play the odds, and they have better odds, that's why they are in demand.
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#25 birdwatcher

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 01:52 PM

 

According to MLBTradeRumors here are your pending free agent relievers(as of right now).  Just food for thought.

 

Right-Handed Relievers

Al Alburquerque (32)
John Axford (35)
Andrew Bailey (34)
Tony Barnette (34) — $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Matt Belisle (38)
Joaquin Benoit (40)
Trevor Cahill (30)
Jesse Chavez (34)
Tyler Clippard (33)
Steve Cishek (32)
Wade Davis (32)
Neftali Feliz (30)
Jeanmar Gomez (30)
Luke Gregerson (34)
Jason Grilli (41)
David Hernandez (33)
Greg Holland (32) — $15MM player option
Craig Kimbrel (30) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Brandon Kintzler (33)
Mark Lowe (35)
Dustin McGowan (36)
Jason Motte (36)
Pat Neshek (37)
Juan Nicasio (31)
Seung-hwan Oh (35)
Logan Ondrusek (33) — $1.5MM club option
Chad Qualls (39)
Addison Reed (29)
Fernando Rodney (41)
Francisco Rodriguez (36)
Sergio Romo (35)
Fernando Salas (33)
Bryan Shaw (30)
Joe Smith (34)
Craig Stammen (34)
Drew Storen (30)
Huston Street (34) — $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Anthony Swarzak (32)
Koji Uehara (43)
Carlos Villanueva (34)
Jordan Walden (30)
Tom Wilhelmsen (34)
Chris Young (39) — $8MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout

 

Left-Handed Relievers

Fernando Abad (32)
Antonio Bastardo (32)
Jerry Blevins (34) — $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Craig Breslow (37)
Brian Duensing (35)
Zach Duke (35)
Boone Logan (33) — $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jake McGee (31)
Eric O’Flaherty (33)
Oliver Perez (36)
Glen Perkins (35) — $6.5MM club option with a $700K buyout
Clayton Richard (34)
Tony Watson (32)

 

 

Cool. If we bring back all the ex-Twins, we have wiggle room if one of them isn't that good.


#26 h2oface

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:00 PM

 

They need one legit bullpen arm. Not a recovery project, a legit reliable arm.

 

Whether they need two arms depends how the existing bullpen performs from now until the end of the season.

Not too many years back, the stat guys were touting how worthless it was to pay for relief pitchers, and specifically, closers. The KC breakthrough 3 headed monster for the 7th, 8th, and 9th, changed the game, and hopefully, our front office is paying attention. The only thing better than a two headed monster, is a 3 headed monster. I certainly hope the Twins acquire at least two, and not just one. But hey, one is better than doing nothing again!

 

I appreciate the optimism of the article and summary of the bullpen, I just don't want the Twins FO to be paralyzed by hope, again.

Edited by h2oface, 15 August 2017 - 02:09 PM.

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#27 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:04 PM

Three of those guys have been here all year, contributing to a bottom 5 bullpen.

Of course you'd rather have them finish strong instead of weak, but it'll be such a small sample size, that it won't tell you much about how you can expect them to perform next season.

Most WS contenders these days have really good bullpens. Traditionally, guys like Pressley, Rogers, Duffey are ok pieces, but ideally I think you'd like all those guys competing for the last spot or two, not all being key pieces.

The main guy I'm keeping an eye on is Hildenberger. If he's a legit arm and you add another, your late inning relief is in pretty good shape. You can shuffle pieces around and field a solid bullpen around a core like that (provided the other guys don't collapse either).
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#28 USAFChief

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:07 PM

 

But if you sign FA help and they get injured, then you still have your top internal options available to step in.
If you rely on your top internal options instead, you are left scrambling when they get injured.

There is a reason that the top FA players get a lot of money.
They don't come with a guarantee, of course, but you play the odds, and they have better odds, that's why they are in demand.

concur.

 

The argument "don't sign these guys because they might not be good, or might get injured.  Let's instead hope these other guys become good, and don't get injured" doesn't make much sense to me.

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#29 Mike Sixel

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:14 PM

 

Not too many years back, the stat guys were touting how worthless it was to pay for relief pitchers, and specifically, closers. The KC breakthrough 3 headed monster for the 7th, 8th, and 9th, changed the game, and hopefully, our front office is paying attention. The only thing better than a two headed monster, is a 3 headed monster. I certainly hope the Twins acquire at least two, and not just one. But hey, one is better than doing nothing again!

 

I appreciate the optimism of the article and summary of the bullpen, I just don't want the Twins FO to be paralyzed by hope, again.

 

I think the "stat guys" were saying that it was hard to predict which RPs would be good, and that they were expensive because of that, relative to expected outcomes, not that RPs were not worth signing if you could figure out which ones would be good. 

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#30 h2oface

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:23 PM

While it was a lot of fun to see Hildenberger get his first save, and step up, that 2 run homer in the eighth inning of the 12-11 loss the night before (that included allowing 2 inherited runners on first and second to score and one of his own, turning a 11-7 game into a 11-10 game headed into the 9th inning) is still just as fresh in my mind as the next night's success. I am not ready to anoint him a closer. He does look promising for a later inning option, but I would hope for a monster, and not a place holder.

Edited by h2oface, 15 August 2017 - 02:42 PM.

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#31 Han Joelo

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:23 PM

Was just reading about how Chapman is "struggling" for the Yankees.  I think you keep mining for Kintzlers, maybe step up a notch and look at this year's version of Greg Holland, but stay away from big contracts for aging relievers.

 

If you want the best relievers, seems like you have to develop them--or pay the price in prospects to get them in their primes.

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#32 h2oface

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:41 PM

 

I think the "stat guys" were saying that it was hard to predict which RPs would be good, and that they were expensive because of that, relative to expected outcomes, not that RPs were not worth signing if you could figure out which ones would be good. 

 

Maybe...... and I could be misremembering, but I remember that they were not worth signing specifically because you can't be sure which ones would be good, so don't do it at all, and use the grow your own method.

Edited by h2oface, 15 August 2017 - 02:41 PM.


#33 Willihammer

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:50 PM

The Twins could certainly go out right now and add a reliever or two in a trade.

Click here to view the article

Well no, they can't evidently.

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Well, there's that.

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#34 Dantes929

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:50 PM

 

concur.

 

The argument "don't sign these guys because they might not be good, or might get injured.  Let's instead hope these other guys become good, and don't get injured" doesn't make much sense to me.

I really have no problem with that but at some point internal options have to step up especially if you have been drafting for the intent purposes of having a great relief corps.  Quite possibly May, Burdi and Chargois were 3 of the top 5 guys we were counting on in the pen.  What team wouldn't be hurt pretty severely to have their top 3 relievers out before the season even started? I only say possibly because there was a chance May was going to start. You can only plan so far.  If KC's elite 3 relievers had season ending injuries before the season started would it have been fair for the fans to say "hey, they should have had 3 more elite relievers in reserve" Where would the early decade Twins have been if Rincon and Hawkins had gotten hurt?  Later Twins if Crain and Guerrier got injured a week into the season?

I am fine with investing in quality relievers. I just don't like the argument that relying on internal options for next year is identical to relying on internal options in other years. Different levels of talent and stages in development make that point very weak, imo.   

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#35 USAFChief

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 03:02 PM

 

I really have no problem with that but at some point internal options have to step up especially if you have been drafting for the intent purposes of having a great relief corps.  Quite possibly May, Burdi and Chargois were 3 of the top 5 guys we were counting on in the pen.  What team wouldn't be hurt pretty severely to have their top 3 relievers out before the season even started? I only say possibly because there was a chance May was going to start. You can only plan so far.  If KC's elite 3 relievers had season ending injuries before the season started would it have been fair for the fans to say "hey, they should have had 3 more elite relievers in reserve" Where would the early decade Twins have been if Rincon and Hawkins had gotten hurt?  Later Twins if Crain and Guerrier got injured a week into the season?

I am fine with investing in quality relievers. I just don't like the argument that relying on internal options for next year is identical to relying on internal options in other years. Different levels of talent and stages in development make that point very weak, imo.   

But that's my point...When May, Burdi, and Chargois are "3 of the top 5" you're in trouble before the season even starts.

 

May had trouble the previous season, and it borders on malpractice to count on two guys with both little-to-no MLB experience and injury histories.

 

I've been hearing about how Burdi et al are the bullpen fix since the day they were drafted.  Build a pen, and let minor leaguers like that force their way in, or at worst, be among those considered for the inevitable injuries and/or ineffectiveness in the big league pen.

 

Nobody ever suffered from having too many good options.

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#36 Dantes929

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 03:48 PM

 

But that's my point...When May, Burdi, and Chargois are "3 of the top 5" you're in trouble before the season even starts.

 

May had trouble the previous season, and it borders on malpractice to count on two guys with both little-to-no MLB experience and injury histories.

 

I've been hearing about how Burdi et al are the bullpen fix since the day they were drafted.  Build a pen, and let minor leaguers like that force their way in, or at worst, be among those considered for the inevitable injuries and/or ineffectiveness in the big league pen.

 

Nobody ever suffered from having too many good options.

Again, no problem with the last sentence. Burdi was drafted in 2014 and et al were drafted then or near then so anyone saying they were the bullpen fix for 2014, 2015 or even 2016 were unrealistic.  Just like Buxton and Sano injuries have made us wait an extra year but they may still be the fix for 2018 or 2019. I haven't seen them pitch so I really don't know. Maybe we really do need to get a lot of outside help.  I just never liked the argument referred to in my other post.  Fans before the season were saying how can a team do basically nothing and expect not to lose 103 games again.  Well, we let talent develop and we would now have to go 0-46 to lose 103. 

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#37 Seth Stohs

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 04:04 PM

 

Well no, they can't evidently.

 

Huh? Did I forget to add the "if they want" qualifier?


#38 spycake

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 05:25 PM

Huh? Did I forget to add the "if they want" qualifier?


Waivers? I guess they might be able to get another team's Belisle...

#39 bighat

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 05:48 PM

 

It's admirable of Perkins to get this far after a serious injury... But honestly, I don't know if I want to see him in a Twins uniform. Especially if they're playing meaningful games in September. 

 

Could not agree more, Van. Watching Perkins waltz into the bullpen wearing his "free pass" hometown boy Gopher t-shirt under his uniform? No thank you. It's sort of like the Phillies and Ryan Howard. He did some good things for this team, but when a guy's out of gas you gotta DFA him and just let someone else take a flyer if they want. He's toast and this Twins fans does not want to see him in a MN uniform ever again. Perkins hasn't pitched for over a year and the last time he did he was getting plastered and was a huge contributor to the collapse in the early days of a dreadful 2016. This team needs to bury the ghost and move on with what got them here. I think Perkins returning would have a negative effect on the clubhouse and the way the team feels - kinda like when that hated co-worker returns from a long vacation in the office.

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#40 DocBauer

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 06:26 PM

I agree with so much here, both sides of the aisle even, and could post quite a few quotes. Of course, that would prove monotonous as hell.

The Twins have drafted quite a few power arms the past few years. Some for the pen, some with the idea of starting before moving back to the pen. Ryan very clearly made a mistake in expecting too much too soon from these guys. The lack of major activity by the new FO this past off season was limited time and familiarity with the club, prospects, and possible expectations in what is/was an evaluation year. But even with some very disappointing injuries holding some guys back, others have stepped to the forefront: Reed, Curtiss, Busentiz, etc.

Duffey shows promise; great start, slippage, and now pitching well again. Early returns on Hildenberger and Busentiz are encouraging. Pressly has shown positively before this season and has great stuff. It looks like he's been turning it around after discovery he was trying "too hard" and overthrowing. (Something I've been saying for over a month now).

Relief pitchers, their stats, their season's, streaks within their season's, can often prove volatile. We know this. Still, there is NOTHING wrong with this team signing a quality, proven RP. Further, there is NOTHING wrong with signing a second, maybe even a third arm coming off injury, or a poor season bounce back, or even a failed SP that is open to converting. But you also can't ignore the arms currently on roster, and close, as well as the interns injury options that should be back at some point in 2018.

In other words, do both! Sign the big arm. Take a flier or maybe two, one from the port side. But for a club over the initial rebuilding hump, DO NOT ignore what you have on hand to audition, develop and build with.
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